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Who we face in the Playoffs - every scenario


Tandy
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Disclaimer - there is one crazy set of scenarios where Tampa could still make the playoffs - but it's an extremely long shot so I didn't include it for this chart.

I've actually seen people say we should rest our starters with the #2 seed on the line - and I'm really surprised.     There is certainly more potential for a player to be hurt in a playoff game (knock on wood) where the stakes are higher and it's win or go home.

But, I decided to look at all of our possible options.    Most of you know how the playoff berths and seeding works - and how the games are pitted during the playoff tournament - but here's a little refresher on the teams to be played:

Seeds 1 -4 are the Division Winners - and are ranked based on record, followed by tie breaking statistics in a specific order until one is chosen for a specific rank - with the last tie breaker being a coin toss - so one will always win.

Seed #1 does not have to play during wild card week and is guaranteed home field throughout the playoffs as long as they remain alive.  They will host the highest ranking winner of the wild card round (#6, #5 or #4)

Seed #2 does not have to play during wild card week and is given a home game for the Division Round,  They will host the lowest ranking winner of the wild card round (#3, #4 or #5).  If they win this game and the #1 seed loses - they will also host the team that beat the #1 seed in the championship round.

Seed #3 is given a home game during wild card week and will host the highest ranking wild card team (Seed #6)

Seed #4 is given a home game during wild card week and will host the lowest ranking wild card team (Seed #5)

So, based on the locked up seeds so far, and the matchups in the final week - there are 16 different scenarios we could end up with.    

***Note so we can see our possible options - I am assuming in this chart that Atlanta wins the wild card round - if they drop to that spot.   I have highlighted in Red every Atlanta option.

 

PLAYOFFSCENE.GIF

So based on this chart -

if we beat New Orleans - we skip the wild card game - and will host one of these teams in the Division Round:

Seattle, Green Bay, New York Giants or Detroit Lions

If we win the Division Round and Dallas also wins - we would travel to Dallas for the Championship game.   If we win the Division Round and Dallas loses - we will host one of these teams for the Championship round:

Washington, New York Giants, Green Bay, Detroit Lions or Seattle Seahawks

 

Now, what if we don't beat New Orleans.   There are a couple of scenarios which would still give us a 2nd - but the possibilities of who and where we play is varied greatly:

We will host one of these teams in the Wild Card Round (unless we get the 2nd seed (case 7 and 8):

Detroit Lions, New York Giants, Washington Redskins or Green Bay Packers,

Depending on the results of wild card weekend, we would then travel to one of the following teams for the Division Round (again except in case 7 and 8)

Seattle Seahawks,  Detroit Lions or Dallas Cowboys

In case #7 and #8 - we skip the Wild Card round and will host one of the following teams based on the outcome of the Wild Card weekend games:

Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks or New York Giants

In case #7 and #8 - if we win the game - and Dallas loses the game, we would host the team that beat Dallas - either:

Detroit Lions, New York Giants or Seattle Seahawks.

 

Personally - I want us to win this game - win that 2nd seed and prepare for that Divisional round game.

 

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1 minute ago, Tandy said:

Yea - I guess the easiest thing is 

Just Win!

of course. this is the first time I don't care who is opposite us, I got a feeling we will destroy them. I been watching all our games over and the only games we looked bad in were the Bucs game and the Eagles and I can honestly say against the Eagles the guys looked more tired than anything. the commentators even brought out how flat the team looked. and we had a legit shot to win both those games. they were also our worst losses, Bucs by 7, Eagles by 9. our other losses we lost by 3, 2, and 1 point. If we handle business against the Saints and get another week off, the Birds will be scary to deal with, seeing as how the first bye week did wonders for the team.

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4 minutes ago, raysnill1 said:

of course. this is the first time I don't care who is opposite us, I got a feeling we will destroy them. I been watching all our games over and the only games we looked bad in were the Bucs game and the Eagles and I can honestly say against the Eagles the guys looked more tired than anything. the commentators even brought out how flat the team looked. and we had a legit shot to win both those games. they were also our worst losses, Bucs by 7, Eagles by 9. our other losses we lost by 3, 2, and 1 point. If we handle business against the Saints and get another week off, the Birds will be scary to deal with, seeing as how the first bye week did wonders for the team.

But it's important to be fresh and ready for the Super Bowl if you get that far.    It's silly to want revenge and traveling to places like the Seahawks during the playoffs regardless of whether we can win or not (we can for sure).    We should want our opportunity to have home field throughout - no traveling to cold weather stadiums where the weather can cause injuries as much as the opposition - and even if Dallas wins - we still go to an indoor forum to play them.

We should want to control our situation as much as possible.    Like you said - we came out flat against Philadelphia - and a lot of that was from the brutal travel schedule and level of opponent.    I'd hate to have them traveling and battling in the playoff rounds to come out flat in the Super Bowl.

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2 minutes ago, Tandy said:

But it's important to be fresh and ready for the Super Bowl if you get that far.    It's silly to want revenge and traveling to places like the Seahawks during the playoffs regardless of whether we can win or not (we can for sure).    We should want our opportunity to have home field throughout - no traveling to cold weather stadiums - and even if Dallas wins - we still go to an indoor forum to play them.

We should want to control our situation as much as possible.    Like you said - we came out flat against Philadelphia - and a lot of that was from the brutal travel schedule and level of opponent.    I'd hate to have them traveling and battling in the playoff rounds to come out flat in the Super Bowl.

no doubt. I trust that Quinn will have these guys ready knowing the Saints would love nothing more than playing spoiler for us. I don't think Chad is gonna take these guys lightly either. we got this!

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1 minute ago, raysnill1 said:

no doubt. I trust that Quinn will have these guys ready knowing the Saints would love nothing more than playing spoiler for us. I don't think Chad is gonna take these guys lightly either. we got this!

No doubt.   I'll be there to watch too.    I was just amazed at how many people are saying we should rest our starters this weekend.   Crazy!!!  NEVER EVER rest our starters against the SAINTS - unless we are up by 1000 or so.

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19 minutes ago, falconfansince66 said:

I haven't felt this good about heading to the playoffs since the 80-81 season.  Of course the Cowboys came and punted us out of the NFC Championship that year.  I'm so looking forward for REVENGE and going there to do the same thing to them this year! 

Didn't we get beat in the divisional round? It might've even been the WC. 

Edited by Atlantafan21
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6 minutes ago, Atlantafan21 said:

Didn't we get beat in the divisional round? It might've even been the WC. 

Yeah, it was divisional round.  They punted us from an appearance in the NFCCG that year and we had THE team to go all the way.  (Kind of like what they 'supposedly' have this year..)  Still, that game has made me a Dallas hater for all of my life and there's nothing I want more than to go there and spank their @sses!  (Still hoping for that Seahags rematch in ATL after WE get a bye week and play at home this time!   Just win on Sunday and hoping those cards fall..  

Edited by falconfansince66
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1 hour ago, Tandy said:

But it's important to be fresh and ready for the Super Bowl if you get that far.    It's silly to want revenge and traveling to places like the Seahawks during the playoffs regardless of whether we can win or not (we can for sure).    We should want our opportunity to have home field throughout - no traveling to cold weather stadiums where the weather can cause injuries as much as the opposition - and even if Dallas wins - we still go to an indoor forum to play them.

We should want to control our situation as much as possible.    Like you said - we came out flat against Philadelphia - and a lot of that was from the brutal travel schedule and level of opponent.    I'd hate to have them traveling and battling in the playoff rounds to come out flat in the Super Bowl.

Hopefully they won't have to leave the state of Georgia or Texas until the Lombardi is in their hands.

Nothing but a couple 2 hour flights from here out.

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2 hours ago, raysnill1 said:

of course. this is the first time I don't care who is opposite us, I got a feeling we will destroy them. I been watching all our games over and the only games we looked bad in were the Bucs game and the Eagles and I can honestly say against the Eagles the guys looked more tired than anything. the commentators even brought out how flat the team looked. and we had a legit shot to win both those games. they were also our worst losses, Bucs by 7, Eagles by 9. our other losses we lost by 3, 2, and 1 point. If we handle business against the Saints and get another week off, the Birds will be scary to deal with, seeing as how the first bye week did wonders for the team.

I look at the 1st tampa game as a different team. We could've won that one if Mccoy wasn't playing but. I'm kinda glad we didn't because it seemed to give us a kick in the butt. 

Of the rest of the games, the only two we got dominated (in my eyes) are Philly and SD. SD had the ball all day and our defense was horrid. Philly our Offense looked horrid. 

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14 hours ago, The O.D.B said:

I look at the 1st tampa game as a different team. We could've won that one if Mccoy wasn't playing but. I'm kinda glad we didn't because it seemed to give us a kick in the butt. 

Of the rest of the games, the only two we got dominated (in my eyes) are Philly and SD. SD had the ball all day and our defense was horrid. Philly our Offense looked horrid. 

Sometimes a loss is exactly what a team needs to wake up.  As long as it's regular season and your season is not on the line - it can be a good thing.

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The scenario to focus on is #2 seed after taking care of the Saints Sunday.  You want to be THE hot team going into the Super Bowl tournament (playoffs)..  you do that by taking it to the Saints this weekend, taking your badd 11-5 self to the playoffs with the best momentum.  You might just get one chance in a decade for it to all come together to do this.

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It might be easier to think about the scenarios that are not possible rather than try to crunch out each permutation.

  • There's no scenario where we have to play in GB
  • There's no scenario where we have to play in NY
  • There are only 3/16 scenarios (19%) where we have to play in SEA - two of those are the NFCCG
Playing in Dallas would be much more favorable than any of those places. And in the event Dallas loses in the Div round (which is entirely possible) and we're the 2 seed, our next road game would either be in Houston or next season.  
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1 minute ago, WhenFalconsWin said:

If this scenario is left you can print the Falcons SB tickets now

 

Personally I love our opportunities to go all the way with any scenario if we beat New Orleans - I narrowed those down in my quote here:

Wild Card Round - BYE

Division Round - HOST: Sea, GB, NYG or Det

Win with Dallas also winning - Travel to Dallas for Championship game

Win with Dallas losing - HOST:  Was, NYG, GB, Det or Sea

 

If we beat them - we could potentially play 2 games at home then travel to Houston or 1 game at home and 2 games in Texas.

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