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No 5k for Ryan?


falcndave
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Edit 12/30/16:  The more I read, the more I think we may end up throwing more in the this game. Per KS, the Saints run D has been # 3 since our week 3 running circus against them.  LINK

 

What do you think?

I just went back and watched the week 2 game. While Ryan is plenty good enough to hang 400 on the Saints D, we just won't have any incentive to do so. I forgot how prolific Freeman and Coleman were in that game. The only way I could see Ryan throwing that much is if the Falcons just wanted to make a point of hanging 5k on them. Since Quinn and Shanahan don't show much understanding of the fan importance of our rivalries (probably a good thing), I don't see them making 5k a priority (nor should they).

I think it would be neat for Ryan to get to 5k because that would polish off the MVP case. That said, its not important that records be set. I just want to see them get to  1-1 in Superbowls!

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That a very Breesish way to look at it....there were a few posts on the Stains message board saying that Brees should get his 5k then sit......We should get the game in hand and sit Ryan. The only way I'd be ok with Ryan trying to get 5k yards is if that is what it takes to win the game....

Edited by crimsonhawk
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He hasn't hit 300 in awhile, and you make a great case for why he likely won't.

5k is much less special, imo, than the YPA. Brees is good evidence for why 5k is overrated. YPA is a better sign of passing potency than total yards, iyam.

And it doesn't require Ryan to deviate from what has been so successful during the winning streak.

18-23, 270 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT. That stat line and a W would make me very happy.

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It depends... If we really want that 2'nd seed this game could very well turn into a shootout, and the Ain'ts D is certainly capable of giving up 400. I think we'll probably run it with Free and Teco and not need it though. I don't think we would throw it more than necessary just to get it, that's an Ain't move.

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29 minutes ago, Drew4719 said:

While it would be nice for Matt to get to 5,000, I agree that we will probably dominate the saints on the ground. I doubt he gets over 300.

Unless it's a blow out (unlikely) we almost have no need for Ryan to be above 300 especially with the way Free and Tco can run. 

The great thing about our backs it's that both of them are a real dual threat RBs. 

I really want Free to hit 1k though. 

Edited by ICD
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their defense has some people back they didn't have that first game though. So we might not run as much on them as we did then. Something else to remember as well, didn't Julio have like 27 yards that game?  He's probably itching and bitchin to get back in the groove of things...... ;)

 

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The importance of keeping the ground game rolling against the Saints is huge for three big reasons.  #1 - Keeping their offense limited in snaps (more clock and time of possession)!  This becomes huge for us because, #2 - It wears on their defense to keep them out on the field longer and.. #3 - It keeps our defense rested so that it can have a better chance of stopping that Saints offense. 

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17 minutes ago, Kaptain Krazy said:

He hasn't hit 300 in awhile, and you make a great case for why he likely won't.

5k is much less special, imo, than the YPA. Brees is good evidence for why 5k is overrated. YPA is a better sign of passing potency than total yards, iyam.

And it doesn't require Ryan to deviate from what has been so successful during the winning streak.

18-23, 270 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT. That stat line and a W would make me very happy.

Yes to all of this AND no injuries. Make your offerings to the football gods now.

Edited by Internetallstar
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2 minutes ago, papachaz said:

their defense has some people back they didn't have that first game though. So we might not run as much on them as we did then. Something else to remember as well, didn't Julio have like 27 yards that game?  He's probably itching and bitchin to get back in the groove of things...... ;)

 

Something else their defense didn't yet have to account for:  Gabriel - This is one of those games he can likely 'go off' again in with all the emphasis on JJ. 

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It depends on what the defense gives him. We'll probably stick to the running game, but even then it's easy to get 300+ yards if the opportunity is there.

More than the yards I would like to see him hold the YPA record since Kurt Warner. Currently the highest YPA since then was Rodgers in 2011 with 9.25. Ryan is at 9.26. I would like to see him score a few big yardage plays so he can get a pretty YPA to finish off the season.

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Saints may sell out against the run and leave the passing game wide open.

Don't think it's likely he gets to 5000, but,it's only 387 yards, and the Saints gave up 400 yards to Kaepernick, and he left several plays on the field.

Saints give up more passing yards per game than the Falcons. What it would take is Ryan hitting on 3-5 deep passes, which Ryan can certainly do. It may be that, if the Falcons get ahead, that the saints, or certain players give up, don't make the effort to tackle and there's lots of YAC.

 

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1 hour ago, crimsonhawk said:

That a very Breesish way to look at it....there were a few posts on the Stains message board saying that Brees should get his 5k then sit......We should get the game in hand and sit Ryan. The only way I'd be ok with Ryan trying to get 5k yards is if that is what it takes to win the game....

Interesting. I'd say my take was totally opposite than Breesish. To me Breesish means set the personal record, even if it is not in the teams long term interest. 

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54 minutes ago, papachaz said:

their defense has some people back they didn't have that first game though. So we might not run as much on them as we did then. Something else to remember as well, didn't Julio have like 27 yards that game?  He's probably itching and bitchin to get back in the groove of things...... ;)

 

Yes, I thought of that. Quinn isn't Payton though. Payton prioritizes personal records. I don't think Quinn will. If Julio was playing for Payton in week 17, he'd end up leading the league in receiving. However, he plays for Quinn, so he'll have to settle for a ring this year :P

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You know, we're all assuming that Ryan, Quinn and Shanahan don't care about 5000, but what if they do?

Not that I want to see 55 passes from Ryan, but what if they skew the game plan a little to get more passing yards in? Instead of handing the ball to Coleman and Freeman, just toss a quick pass, for example?

Don't want  to see a shootout, but with Brees, a 3 TD lead in the 3rd quarter isn't safe. 

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I could care less about 5k.    It is all about the team and playing at close to max offensive capacity - the Falcons have done that this year.  Matt is much better with less attempts than required to get to 5k.  He will almost get to it with the perfect mix of run/pass.

While 5k is certainly a milestone, I don't think it is one that the team needs.

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1 hour ago, rightsaidfred said:

Not if its up to DOL.......

That airhead said on 92.9 today that ATL should sit MR Sun and play Shaub.  Like NO is not coming here looking for blood.  Shaub is a good backup, but really Ledbottom:  "Come on, Man!"

What the crap is wrong with this fool! We have one objective to win and secure the bye... you don't rationale suggest sitting your mvp candidate. I'm tired of this moron saying dumb crap to just be ohh contrary 

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39 minutes ago, falconidae said:

You know, we're all assuming that Ryan, Quinn and Shanahan don't care about 5000, but what if they do?

Not that I want to see 55 passes from Ryan, but what if they skew the game plan a little to get more passing yards in? Instead of handing the ball to Coleman and Freeman, just toss a quick pass, for example?

Don't want  to see a shootout, but with Brees, a 3 TD lead in the 3rd quarter isn't safe. 

Good point. I suppose that is possible. In trying to come up with a game script that gets him to 370, I could only think of two. 1) We get behind by 3 scores and sling it all over the yard. 2) Gratuitously ostentatious show of aerial yardage gain just to rub their noses in it. Both of those are far fetched for me.  I suppose their is a 3rd. Maybe Brees and Ryan are both out of their mind and it turns into a aerial gun fight. Of course, you could be on to something. Make every hand off a two foot forward pitch! 

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it's a nice stat and a great individual accomplishment but I'm pretty sure Chad doesn't care about getting 5000 yards over getting the W. 34 TDs with only 7 INTs (3 off the hands of Julio) and leading the team to 10 or 11 wins with the second seed against a brutal schedule is probably satisfaction enough.

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9 minutes ago, falcndave said:

Good point. I suppose that is possible. In trying to come up with a game script that gets him to 370, I could only think of two. 1) We get behind by 3 scores and sling it all over the yard. 2) Gratuitously ostentatious show of aerial yardage gain just to rub their noses in it. Both of those are far fetched for me.  I suppose their is a 3rd. Maybe Brees and Ryan are both out of their mind and it turns into a aerial gun fight. Of course, you could be on to something. Make every hand off a two foot forward pitch! 

Naah, his average game this year is 307 yards, all it would take is an average game plus a couple of deep shots connecting. What made it more unlikely was not hitting any deep shots in the panther game.

Assuming it's not a shootout, only way it happens is with a big play- say being pinned on your own 10 yard line, throwing a screen to Coleman that he takes to the house.

I guess really, that if they were interested in 5000, they would have had him throw a few more passes along the way and kept him in longer in the blowouts..

Brees is 187 yards from another 5000, love to keep him from getting to 5000 and Ryan getting 5000. 

I know that Brees will get his 5000 and Ryan probably won't, just keep thinking, what if Ryan is just razor sharp and hits 27 of 32 for 400 yards with 6 TDs [Hey, it's my fantasy]

 

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2 hours ago, falcndave said:

What do you think?

I just went back and watched the week 2 game. While Ryan is plenty good enough to hang 400 on the Saints D, we just won't have any incentive to do so. I forgot how prolific Freeman and Coleman were in that game. The only way I could see Ryan throwing that much is if the Falcons just wanted to make a point of hanging 5k on them. Since Quinn and Shanahan don't show much understanding of the fan importance of our rivalries (probably a good thing), I don't see them making 5k a priority (nor should they).

I think it would be neat for Ryan to get to 5k because that would polish off the MVP case. That said, its not important that records be set. I just want to see them get to  1-1 in Superbowls!

When is there ever an "incentive" to throw for 400+ yards? The ebb and flow of the game will dictate how much the offense passes or runs the ball. We racked up over 200 yards rushing against NO last time, so it stands to reason that the Saints will place more of an emphasis on stopping the run this time around, which may result in Ryan passing more than last time. Ultimately, it will come down to how well the offense executes and what the gameplan is. If they connect on deep throws or get a lot of YAC Ryan could finish with 400+ yards passing with his average volume of attempts of around 34.

We're approaching this as fans, but DQ, Kyle, and even Ryan himself will tell you they couldn't careless about reaching 5,000 yards passing as long as they win in the end, which is ultimately what makes everyone happy. I'd like to get both, but I'd be happy with just a win.

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9 hours ago, JerseyNo12 said:

When is there ever an "incentive" to throw for 400+ yards?

The first Carolina game was such an example. There was really no reason to force the run in that game. They were still learning to play without that CB who left (can never remember names), and the guys who were left were inferior to our receivers across the board. The game plan going into that game was clear, use the pass to set up the run.

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