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Looking at Worst Case Scenario


jfalconsp
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Win out and we're in.  This thread isn't for that, and I'm bored and want to assume we drop a game (I don't see us dropping two). I've been playing with scenarios to see what would clinch us a playoff berth, and I figured I'd share as I'm going through for those of you that like looking as well.

 

If the Panthers can beat the Redskins tonight, we just have to win one more game to guarantee a spot in the playoffs.

 

Teams in the playoff hunt and looking at the worst case scenario after a Washington loss tonight (taking the Redskins out):

Dallas (12-2) [vs Detroit, @Philly] - L Detroit, W Philly - (13-3)

Seattle (9-4-1) [vs AZ, @SF] - Win out - (11-4-1)

Tampa (8-6) [@NO, vs Car] - Win out - (10-6)

Detroit (9-5) [@Dallas. vs GB] - W Dallas, L GB - (10-6)

NYG (10-4) [@Philly, @Washington] - Win out - (12-4)

GB (8-6) [vs Minnesota, @Detroit] - Win out - (10-6)

Atlanta (9-5) [@Car, vs NO]

 

So Dallas (1), Seattle (2), Tampa/GB (3/4).  NYG get a wild card spot with the best record.

Final spot would come down to Detroit (10-6) and us.  

Tiebreaker procedures.  

1. We haven't played each other.  

2. Detroit's conference record would be (8-4) as would the Falcon's (8-4) assuming we win 1/2.  

3. Common games: Detroit (3-2) and Falcons (3-2)

4. Falcons win based on strength of victory (SOV).

 

Go Panthers!

Edited by jfalconsp
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I will have to double check, but think you are wrong because you are forgetting a 2nd GB loss for Detroit which would be the same as us losing to NO. We would both have 2 common losses. Them to GB and us to NO and Philly?

We take it on SOV. I will double check though. I think Wash loss tonight puts us in at 10-6

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Don't get wrapped up in Scenarioland or Ifville, it is a deep and dark twisting slide to the most evil places of **** and the odds are what you think is going to happen, will not happen because of the crazy amount of variables that come into play down the stretch of an NFL season.

Or like my man Sker said above, "Just Win".

I do appreciate the write up though, OP.  Well done.

Edited by athell
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I was messing with the Playoff Machine last night and figured that if the Falcons finish 1-1 we need either

  1. Tampa to lose at least 1 of their last 2 games OR
  2. The Redskins to lose at least 1 of their last 3 games OR
  3. Eagles to beat the Giants in Philly next week

If any of those 3 things happen the Falcons are in the playoffs.

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1 hour ago, jfalconsp said:

Win out and we're in.  This thread isn't for that, and I'm bored and want to assume we drop a game (I don't see us dropping two). I've been playing with scenarios to see what would clinch us a playoff berth, and I figured I'd share as I'm going through for those of you that like looking as well.

 

If the Panthers can beat the Redskins tonight, we have to win vs NO in two weeks to guarantee a spot in the playoffs regardless of the outcome of the Carolina game. That look right to everyone else?

 

Teams in the playoff hunt and looking at the worst case scenario after a Washington loss tonight (taking the Redskins out):

Dallas (12-2) [vs Detroit, @Philly] - L Detroit, W Philly - (13-3)

Seattle (9-4-1) [vs AZ, @SF] - Win out - (11-4-1)

Tampa (8-6) [@NO, vs Car] - Win out - (10-6)

Detroit (9-5) [@Dallas. vs GB] - W Dallas, L GB - (10-6)

NYG (10-4) [@Philly, @Washington] - Win out - (12-4)

GB (8-6) [vs Minnesota, @Detroit] - Win out - (10-6)

Atlanta (9-5) [@Car, vs NO]

 

So Dallas (1), Seattle (2), Tampa/GB (3/4).  NYG get a wild card spot with the best record.

Final spot would come down to Detroit (10-6) and us.  

Tiebreaker procedures.  

1. We haven't played each other.  

2. Detroit's conference record would be (8-4) as would the Falcon's (8-4) assuming we win 1/2.  

3. Common games: Detroit (4-1) in this scenario.  Falcons sit at (3-1) with NO left to play. If we drop NO, we'd be at (3-2) and would be out of the playoffs.  We beat them, we're at (4-1) and we go to strength of victory which we obviously win and are in. This is regardless of a win against Carolina. Beating Carolina (who Detroit didn't play) and losing to NO would drop us out.

 

Of course, this would be worst case scenario.  Best case scenario is we beat the Panthers this coming week and the Bucs drop to NO, winning us the division before Christmas. Still, I hope the Panthers pull off a win tonight. Would be one less team to worry about.  I don't see us dropping two games.

If we win 1 of the last 2 games we are in the playoffs.

There's 1 scenario I believe where if that happens we are out. That is based on a crazy scenario involving favorites losing and ties.

The win yesterday really put us in a great place.

What we're playing for now is really seeding, HFA, and pride.

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1 minute ago, ATLFalcons11 said:

If we win 1 of the last 2 games we are in the playoffs.

There's 1 scenario I believe where if that happens we are out. That is based on a crazy scenario involving favorites losing and ties.

The win yesterday really put us in a great place.

What we're playing for now is really seeding, HFA, and pride.

If Washington loses tonight, then you're right.  Otherwise Washington (10-5-1) and NYG (11-5) could still take the wildcard spots and leave us on the outside looking in.

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8 minutes ago, Mojojojo said:

I was messing with the Playoff Machine last night and figured that if the Falcons finish 1-1 we need either

  1. Tampa to lose at least 1 of their last 2 games OR
  2. The Redskins to lose at least 1 of their last 3 games OR
  3. Eagles to beat the Giants in Philly next week

If any of those 3 things happen the Falcons are in the playoffs.

This is 100% accurate. And yes, regarding the Lions tiebreak, that scenario presented at the top does neglect the assumed 2nd loss to GB for the Lions. The category would be a tie and would come down to Strength of Victory. God help anyone trying to calculate that tiebreak! Let's just not let it come down to that!

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6 minutes ago, jfalconsp said:

If Washington loses tonight, then you're right.  Otherwise Washington (10-5-1) and NYG (11-5) could still take the wildcard spots and leave us on the outside looking in.

You're right! It would take a miracle for that scenario based on matchups, but we're actually rooting for the Panthers tonight.

Obviously we all understand that we just do our part, then no worries but it's good to have the discussion. That's what this place is all about.

I'm currently throwing up in my mouth right now.

Now obviously if Redskins do win, then Bucs losing 1 game puts us over the top regardless.

Edited by ATLFalcons11
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Here's a nice calculator to play with some of the scenarios: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

We can actually get to the playoffs even if we were to lose out and TB were to win out. 

Things to cheer for: Carolina to win tonight, Dallas to beat Detroit next week, the Giants to win out. 

If we win 1 of 2, we're 99% to make the playoffs. Even if we went 1-1 and TB won out, all we would need to clinch a playoff spot would be:

Carolina to beat Washington tonight AND GB beats MIN OR DAL beats DET OR etc. 
 

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14 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Here's a nice calculator to play with some of the scenarios: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

We can actually get to the playoffs even if we were to lose out and TB were to win out. 

Things to cheer for: Carolina to win tonight, Dallas to beat Detroit next week, the Giants to win out. 

If we win 1 of 2, we're 99% to make the playoffs. Even if we went 1-1 and TB won out, all we would need to clinch a playoff spot would be:

Carolina to beat Washington tonight AND GB beats MIN OR DAL beats DET OR etc. 
 

Add Packers would have to lose one out of 2 for us to get in if we lose out.

We probably don't deserve it regardless tho.

Basically Chicago almost made it impossible for us to not get into the playoffs if they would have pulled off that win

Edited by ATLFalcons11
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1 minute ago, ATLFalcons11 said:

Add Packers would have to lose one out of 2 for us to get in if we lose out.

We probably don't deserve it regardless tho.

If we lost out, TB won out, Packers won out, we would need:

Washington to lose 2/3 of their games against Carolina/Chicago/NYG
Dallas to beat Detroit next week. 

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21 minutes ago, DCBird33 said:

This is 100% accurate. And yes, regarding the Lions tiebreak, that scenario presented at the top does neglect the assumed 2nd loss to GB for the Lions. The category would be a tie and would come down to Strength of Victory. God help anyone trying to calculate that tiebreak! Let's just not let it come down to that!

Yeah thanks, I changed the OP like 4 times but the boards have been going screwy on me. Good thing we've been beating up on our opponents all year, helps us all else being equal.

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9 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

If we lost out, TB won out, Packers won out, we would need:

Washington to lose 2/3 of their games against Carolina/Chicago/NYG
Dallas to beat Detroit next week. 

It's interesting that nfl.com playoff predictor has it different.

Based on the scenario you outlined it says Detroit would get in based on best win percentage in common games.

Edited by ATLFalcons11
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To break a tie for the wild card team: Det vs Atl edition

1. Head to Head (Not there)

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference 

(Atl: 7-5 ; Det: 7-5)

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four

(Tied again; Both teams 3W and 2L)

Atl: GB (1W), Phi (1L), Stl (1W), NO (1W, 1L)

Det: GB (2L), Phi (1W), Stl (1W),  NO (1W)

4. Strength of Victory - This is difficult to predict because it requires the rest of the games to be selected.

Did I do this right?

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40 minutes ago, ATLFalcons11 said:

To break a tie for the wild card team: Det vs Atl edition

1. Head to Head (Not there)

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference 

(Atl: 7-5 ; Det: 7-5)

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four

(Tied again; Both teams 3W and 2L)

Atl: GB (1W), Phi (1L), Stl (1W), NO (1W, 1L)

Det: GB (2L), Phi (1W), Stl (1W),  NO (1W)

4. Strength of Victory - This is difficult to predict because it requires the rest of the games to be selected.

Did I do this right?

Yep - I got 8-4 each in conference games but same result. I think you can tell SOV by looking at the standings on nfl.com. We're +111 in net points and Detroit is +16.  Don't see how they could make that up in two games.

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I am not 100% sure of this, but I believe strength of victory is not MARGIN, but rather the combined record of the opponents that you beat. In other words, take the records of the teams we will have beaten, add them together, and you get our Strength of Victory percentage. Same for Detroit. That obviously would fluctuate every week, and is likely way too complicated to determine the scenario at least until the final week of games is upon us. 

Again, not 100% positive, but I believe that is what Strength of Victory refers to. 

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37 minutes ago, jfalconsp said:

Yep - I got 8-4 each in conference games but same result. I think you can tell SOV by looking at the standings on nfl.com. We're +111 in net points and Detroit is +16.  Don't see how they could make that up in two games.

So I thought net points was a different tiebreaker. I think it's in tiebreaker #9 and #10.

Strength of victory I read is based on calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten. 

So basically combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage.

Edited by ATLFalcons11
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16 minutes ago, DCBird33 said:

I am not 100% sure of this, but I believe strength of victory is not MARGIN, but rather the combined record of the opponents that you beat. In other words, take the records of the teams we will have beaten, add them together, and you get our Strength of Victory percentage. Same for Detroit. That obviously would fluctuate every week, and is likely way too complicated to determine the scenario at least until the final week of games is upon us. 

Again, not 100% positive, but I believe that is what Strength of Victory refers to. 

We can do it but it's based on scenarios. So we were basing it on if we lose, TB wins out, then what else has to be done for us to still get in the playoffs. I'm about to figure it out right now.

Edited by ATLFalcons11
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We have already been eliminated from the 1st seed by the Cowboys win last night.    We currently have some clinching - and some elimination options available to us at this stage and everything else is simply not available to clinch or lose yet:

Elimination - Spot #2 - First Round Bye

Case 1
      Panthers beats the Falcons, and
      Seahawks beats the Cardinals

Case 2
      Falcons ties the Panthers, and
      Seahawks beats the Cardinals, and
      Cowboys beats the Lions

 

Clinch - Spot #4  - Division Win and First Round Home Field Advantage

Case 1
      Falcons beats or ties the Panthers, and
      Saints beats the Buccaneers

Case 2
      Falcons beats the Panthers, and
      Saints ties the Buccaneers

 

Clinch Spot #6 - Wild Card

Case 1
      Falcons beats or ties the Panthers, and
      Panthers beats the Redskins, and
      Vikings beats or ties the Packers

Case 2
      Falcons beats the Panthers, and
      Redskins ties the Panthers, and
      Vikings beats or ties the Packers

Case 3
      Falcons beats the Panthers, and
      Panthers beats the Redskins, and
      Cardinals beats the Seahawks

Case 4
      Falcons beats or ties the Panthers, and
      Panthers beats the Redskins, and
      Cowboys ties the Lions

Case 5
      Falcons beats the Panthers, and
      Redskins ties the Panthers, and
      Cowboys beats or ties the Lions

Case 6
      Falcons beats the Panthers, and
      Panthers beats the Redskins, and
      Cowboys beats the Lions

Case 7
      Falcons beats or ties the Panthers, and
      Vikings beats or ties the Packers, and
      Bears beats the Redskins

Case 8
      Falcons beats the Panthers, and
      Vikings beats or ties the Packers, and
      Bears ties the Redskins

Case 9
      Falcons beats or ties the Panthers, and
      Bears beats the Redskins, and
      Cowboys ties the Lions

Case 10
      Falcons beats the Panthers, and
      Bears beats or ties the Redskins, and
      Cowboys beats the Lions

Case 11
      Falcons beats the Panthers, and
      Bears ties the Redskins, and
      Cowboys ties the Lions

Case 12
      Falcons beats the Panthers, and
      Eagles beats the Giants, and
      Vikings beats or ties the Packers

Case 13
      Falcons beats the Panthers, and
      Eagles beats the Giants, and
      Cowboys beats or ties the Lions

Case 14
      Panthers beats or ties the Redskins, and
      Vikings beats the Packers, and
      Bears beats the Redskins

Case 15
      Panthers beats the Redskins, and
      Vikings beats the Packers, and
      Bears ties the Redskins

Case 16
      Falcons ties the Panthers, and
      Redskins ties the Panthers, and
      Vikings beats or ties the Packers, and
      Bears ties the Redskins

Case 17
      Falcons ties the Panthers, and
      Redskins ties the Panthers, and
      Bears ties the Redskins, and
      Cowboys ties the Lions

Case 18
      Falcons beats the Panthers, and
      Panthers beats the Redskins, and
      Giants beats the Eagles, and
      Seahawks ties the Cardinals

Case 19
      Panthers beats or ties the Redskins, and
      Packers ties the Vikings, and
      Bears beats the Redskins, and
      Cowboys beats the Lions

Case 20
      Panthers beats the Redskins, and
      Packers ties the Vikings, and
      Bears ties the Redskins, and
      Cowboys beats the Lions

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Yeah, I was wrong about SOV. 

Right now, our opponents have 56 wins vs their 47. If we both win out, they may get the 3 seed based on that. They have Cowboys and Packers left. If we both lose 1 or 2 then we are good. Too many scenarios to calculate completely.

Edited by jeffro2000
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