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ATL vs Aints offensive package prediction


RandomFan
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I think we're going to see a very different offensive personnel package than we saw last week vs the Raiders. Last week we used our 3 and 2 TE packages to take advantage of the weakness of their defense -- primarily a lack of speed at inside linebacker and speed/depth at safety. Using the big TE's and FB's helped open up the running game better also, while at the same time forcing Oakland to stay in more base defense to take advantage of their LB's and S's.

But the Aint's defense is a different animal. While they still don't have great coverage inside linebackers, they actually do have 3 very good safeties. They are also a very good defense vs the run in their base defense package. But their big weakness is in ability and depth at CB due to injuries to their top two CB's (who both weren't that great to begin with). 

For that reason, I expect us to run a lot more 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR's). I think we'll also see some of the double RB backfield of both Freeman and Coleman that we saw some of in week 1. This will probably make it more difficult for us to establish a consistent running game, so don't be surprised if we aren't able to run the ball as well as we did vs OAK (I'm not saying thats for sure gonna happen, but it's a distinct possibility.)

We also abused OAK last week with a lot of misdirection, so N.O. will definitely be on the lookout for those plays. Which means we probably won't run as much misdirection as we did last week. That is the week to week cat-and-mouse game between offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator. [What did we do last week? What are they probably going to do to counter that? Then how can we best take advantage of what they are probably going to do? Or should we keep running what we ran until they prove they can stop it? etc...]

Finally, if we aren't able to get consistent chunk yardage in the running game like I suspect we might not be able to do, then that will have a huge influence on the amount of no-huddle we see. Kyle only likes to use the no-huddle when we are staying ahead of the chains and picking up good yardage on 1st and/or 2nd downs. If we are consistenly getting stuffed in the run game and ending up with 2nd and long or 3rd and longs, then don't expect as much no-huddle.

But if we are able to run the ball and keep on schedule for short 1st down conversions, then expect us to keep going back to the no-huddle often -- like last week.

This is a predictive post, but it's also intended as a preemptive post trying to head off the criticism of the offense if we don't end up using the no-huddle a lot this week. There is a time and a place this offensive scheme and OC feels the no-huddle is useful and helpful. If N.O. does a good job shutting down our run game, then I've tried to give a brief explanation why that will effect the amount of ho-huddle we see so there will be less bellyaching about it after the game. (Yes, I know how futile that goal probably is.)

Edited by RandomFan
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I think we'll have something nice cooked up for that Coleman/Freeman line up as far as the run game. I agree we might try to spread out a pretty weak/depleted Saints secondary...I'm not sure that hurts our run game. Even Rashad Jennings was getting chunk plays in the run game in their spread sets...but the Saints seem to always work some voodoo when we come to town. 

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31 minutes ago, Wjcorner said:

I think we'll have something nice cooked up for that Coleman/Freeman line up as far as the run game. I agree we might try to spread out a pretty weak/depleted Saints secondary...I'm not sure that hurts our run game. Even Rashad Jennings was getting chunk plays in the run game in their spread sets...but the Saints seem to always work some voodoo when we come to town. 

I guess I need to clarify. Kyle's offense prefers to play from condensed formations more than most schemes, even with 2 and 3 WR sets. So I didn't mean to imply we'll play more spread out, because I don't think we will. I simply mean we'll probably play with more WR's and 2 RB's than we will play with multiple TE's or a FB - but stil mostly from condensed formations.

The Giants actually do employ a spread out version of the WCO, we are kind of the opposite. It's because Kyle likes to use a lot of angle routes and misdirection, which is easier from formations that line up closer to the ball.

Edited by RandomFan
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It will definitely be interesting to see what Kyle rolls out. I'm glad we have a ton of weapons on offense for a change. Funny what you can do when properly equipped. 

I think we see a good chunk of 30 sets, 3 WRs, 2 RBs, 0 TEs, along with 31 personnel sets. 

This is the first offensive play for the Raiders against the Saints:

2ut1dvm.png

31 personnel with the WR at the bottom in a reduced split. The Raiders run the ball from this look but take a look at the reaction of the nickel corner at the top:

2n23dbq.png

He's keying solely on the run action. Fully ignoring the slot WR, who is running a bubble screen. Imagine if that's Julio and Sanu up top. Big gain waiting to happen. Given our run action looks exactly the same as our play action, I would not be surprised if you see this happen on Monday. 

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Here's the very next play:

2s1m144.png

Two WRs and a TE at the bottom of the screen for a 3x1 look. The backside slant is there for the taking. But I think Musgrave saw what I just pointed out above, because Crabtree is motioned to the slot up top where they ran the bubble screen action on the previously play:

2i084m1.png

But for some reason, nobody goes out with Crabtree to the slot. What's wide open? Bubble screen...

I think you'll see Sanu and Hardy motioned and that bubble screen being ran a couple of times if we get favorable looks like this. 

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And just for safe measures, let's look at the next play:

20jpjbo.png

Same exact alignment from the offense for the third straight play. 

34o32xd.png

This time they finally run the bubble screen but it's been shown three straight times now (one was a penalty). The Saints were alert to it and stopped it for a 6 yard gain instead of the big play it could have been. 

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Now here's your 13 personnel look, with Amari Cooper down bottom. 

24pxumc.png

Raiders give the Saints some play action love:

xf0hu.png

The Saints actually do a good job not over pursuing and getting pulled out of place. The problem is:

aayfki.png

There is a big hole being developed at the top of the field behind the corner. This is obviously a long developing shot play and Carr got the time he needed. 

f0ax39.png

This was a well designed play. As soon as the tight end broke and got the corner's attention, Cooper was running to wide open space. Carr through a poor pass, but Cooper still made the play for a big gain. 

I think if we see 13 personnel, it will be for shot plays against their poor LBs and stressing the safeties like this play. 

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6 hours ago, RandomFan said:

For that reason, I expect us to run a lot more 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR's). I think we'll also see some of the double RB backfield of both Freeman and Coleman that we saw some of in week 1. This will probably make it more difficult for us to establish a consistent running game, so don't be surprised if we aren't able to run the ball as well as we did vs OAK (I'm not saying thats for sure gonna happen, but it's a distinct possibility.)

Elaborate please. I think I missed something.

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4 hours ago, Tim Mazetti said:

Elaborate please. I think I missed something.

Which part? Why I think we'll run more 3 WR personnel? Or why I think it might be more difficult to run the ball?

For the 3 WRs, it's because the Aints are weak at CB which would obviously make them more susceptible to multiple WR sets. Combined with them having a solid run defense in their base personnel, and still a decent run defense in nickel personnel - especially with the 3 safety package they ran with last week. A 3 safety personnel grouping matches up better vs both the run and the pass versus TE's and FB's, which is the main reason we probably won't be tempted to go heavy with TE's and a FB this week. We could still be able to run the ball effectively, but taking your FB and TE's off the field can hurt our run blocking.

I think we're probably going to see a lot of quick hitting passes to WR's and then a lot of play-action passes to take shots in the intermediate and long ranges. We'll still try to run the ball, and if we have early success with it then it's easy to stick with it. But if the run game gets bogged down, I think this is a week we might be more tempted to abandon it early and compensate with the short passing game and WR screens.

Edited by RandomFan
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2 hours ago, papachaz said:

great posts! great break downs Vel.

 

Who's their DC? I honestly can't remember

Random, doesn't the run have to at least appear to work a little bit though for play action to be successful?

Depends how they're stopping the run. If they are over pursuing and shutting the run game, PA can still work because they are over working to stop the threat of the run.

 

If linemen like Gerald McCoy are destroying our run game d@mn near by themselves, we'll have some problems selling the PA.

Edited by Wjcorner
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4 hours ago, Wjcorner said:

Depends how they're stopping the run. If they are over pursuing and shutting the run game, PA can still work because they are over working to stop the threat of the run.

 

If linemen like Gerald McCoy are destroying our run game d@mn near by themselves, we'll have some problems selling the PA.

ok good point in that first paragraph, if they're selling out to stop the run, even the appearance of a run could work somewhat effectively, I kind of thought that.

 

I guess your second paragraph is what I was getting at though, and you're definitely right about what mccoy was able to do in the first game, and we didn't seem to be able to scheme around it or do anything much to stop him

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15 hours ago, RandomFan said:

I guess I need to clarify. Kyle's offense prefers to play from condensed formations more than most schemes, even with 2 and 3 WR sets. So I didn't mean to imply we'll play more spread out, because I don't think we will. I simply mean we'll probably play with more WR's and 2 RB's than we will play with multiple TE's or a FB - but stil mostly from condensed formations.

The Giants actually do employ a spread out version of the WCO, we are kind of the opposite. It's because Kyle likes to use a lot of angle routes and misdirection, which is easier from formations that line up closer to the ball.

My feeling is that we might actually see the WRs split wider than normal this week.  It would be an adjustment to exploit the weakness of the Saints, just like the 13 personnel exploits the weakness of the Raiders. Your post is focused on personnel and the no huddle, but you can also use formation to exploit a weakness. Kyle can be very "determined" to stick with his schemes, but putting the Saints corners one-on-one in space out on the edges, might be something he is willing to make an exception for.

I don't expect wider spacing across the board. I don't think you want to mess with line gaps because that changes your protection schemes. But, I think we will see some wider splits from our WRs. Last week all 11 guys could hold hands at the snap on many plays. I think that tight bunch will be used less. Yes, we will see 11 personnel in that formation...just not at the same percentage. The Saints also like to corner blitz and play zone blitzes against us, at least under Ryan they did. Splitting your WR's out more can complicate those overages. 

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On 9/25/2016 at 1:11 AM, RandomFan said:

Which part? Why I think we'll run more 3 WR personnel? Or why I think it might be more difficult to run the ball?

For the 3 WRs, it's because the Aints are weak at CB which would obviously make them more susceptible to multiple WR sets. Combined with them having a solid run defense in their base personnel, and still a decent run defense in nickel personnel - especially with the 3 safety package they ran with last week. A 3 safety personnel grouping matches up better vs both the run and the pass versus TE's and FB's, which is the main reason we probably won't be tempted to go heavy with TE's and a FB this week. We could still be able to run the ball effectively, but taking your FB and TE's off the field can hurt our run blocking.

I think we're probably going to see a lot of quick hitting passes to WR's and then a lot of play-action passes to take shots in the intermediate and long ranges. We'll still try to run the ball, and if we have early success with it then it's easy to stick with it. But if the run game gets bogged down, I think this is a week we might be more tempted to abandon it early and compensate with the short passing game and WR screens.

Got it, thanks.

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And then after all of that, news came out today that Kenny Vaccaro is going to miss this game. So that takes away their ability to run the 3 safety looks they did last week. Frankly, good...Vaccaro is the d-bag that tried to take out Matt Ryan a few years ago with that cheap shot. It's poetic justice I guess that he's out from getting cheap shot by OBJ.

But anyway, I'm not sure how much that is going to affect our gameplan since they created it before they knew Vaccaro would be out.

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