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30 PPG


vel
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Since it seems a lot of posters here think this offense should be able to score 30 points per game no problem, let's dig a little deeper into that stat shall we?

Since 2011, or the last five seasons, there have been 160 attempts to average 30 points per game. That's five attempts for 32 teams in case math isn't your strong suit. Of those 160 attempts, only 10 teams have averaged 30 points or greater. Another way to put it, only 6.25% of the 160 attempts made to average 30 points per game succeeded. That means almost 94% of the NFL averaged less than 30 points per game. 

The funny part? Everyone's favorite season, 2012, we averaged 26 points per game. We won 13 games. 

So far, in 2016, only 7 teams scored at least 30 points. That's 22%. Obviously one week doesn't make a season, but it still remains that majority of the league did NOT score 30 points. I don't understand where this infatuation with the need to score 30 points to be a good team came from. It's honestly pretty ridiculous. 

Here's how ridiculous that is. Let's continue with our week one output of 24 points. Since some seem to think a 24 point output by our offense is insufficient and an indictment of Kyle's inability to produce a scoring offense worth talking about, what if I told you 24 points per game puts us at a borderline top 10 offense last year? Washington and NYJ averaged 24 ppg and ranked #10 and #11 respectively. Everybody complains about how Kyle's offenses don't score points, yet produced enough to rank on the outskirts of the top 10 last year. 

If that's not good enough, since Kyle is so polarizing and that's a futile argument to make, let's just put it in general perspective about the Falcons. The 2015 Falcons went 8-8. We all know that very well. What most of you don't know is those Falcons lost five games because they couldn't score 24 points. The same 24 points some of yall are acting like is trivial and not good enough to win with in this league. We lost the following games:

  • TB - 20-23 (OT)
  • SF - 16-17 
  • MIN - 10-20
  • TB - 19-23
  • NO - 17-20

We even lost to the Colts, 21-24. That's a game we could have won in OT potentially, but I'll exclude it since 24 points is the threshold. That means, if we scored just a measly 24 points, the same point output our offense put out on Sunday that a large number of posters here say is not good enough, the 2015 Falcons would have been 13-3. Let that sink in. 13-3. Not even Mike Smith hit that mark in year one, who ironically had an offense that averaged.........how many points students? TWENTY FOUR POINTS!!!

So, let's not act like 24 points shouldn't win games. 24 points should win plenty of games. Let's bring it back to Week One of this season. 24 points would have won 12 games out of 16. That's a 75:25 split of winnable games if we scored 24 points or more. 75%. Funny that 12-4 record from week 1 is almost the 13-3 record we would have had if we could have just scored 24 points last year. This offense needs to average 24-27 points per game and we should win at least 10 games. 

Another reason I have faith is that, although the defense allowed 31 points, which we can clearly conclude is a bad game defensively, we weren't gashed and killed in the process. Hear me out before you grumble and roll your eyes. When you look at the teams that allowed 30 points in week one, all of them would have ranked 32nd or worse in yards allowed last year except one: the Atlanta Falcons. Our yards allowed Sunday was 371, which would have been ranked 24th, 8 spots lower than our 2015 defense, which averaged 347 yards allowed. That's what gives me hope for improvement with our defense. They are young, they allowed a lot of points, which won't be the norm (only 2 times out of 160 tries in five years has this happened 1.25%), but they've got room to grow from the mistakes made to extend drives. They weren't being marched on at will, relatively speaking. I think we saw that on film, those of us who've actually watched the game with our beer goggles off. We got some stops that I don't think we get last year (D.Jones tackling Jameis in the open field for a solo third down stop negated by Clayborn's "offsides"; Campbell's great coverage on the deep wheel route but doesn't turn his head, instead face guarding which is legal in the NCAA). Yes, it was ugly, but our defense very well can make 24 points a winnable game for us. 

Remember, Rise Up or Get Gone!

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55 minutes ago, vel said:

Since it seems a lot of posters here think this offense should be able to score 30 points per game no problem, let's dig a little deeper into that stat shall we?

Since 2011, or the last five seasons, there have been 160 attempts to average 30 points per game. That's five attempts for 32 teams in case math isn't your strong suit. Of those 160 attempts, only 10 teams have averaged 30 points or greater. Another way to put it, only 6.25% of the 160 attempts made to average 30 points per game succeeded. That means almost 94% of the NFL averaged less than 30 points per game. 

The funny part? Everyone's favorite season, 2012, we averaged 26 points per game. We won 13 games. 

So far, in 2016, only 7 teams scored at least 30 points. That's 22%. Obviously one week doesn't make a season, but it still remains that majority of the league did NOT score 30 points. I don't understand where this infatuation with the need to score 30 points to be a good team came from. It's honestly pretty ridiculous. 

Here's how ridiculous that is. Let's continue with our week one output of 24 points. Since some seem to think a 24 point output by our offense is insufficient and an indictment of Kyle's inability to produce a scoring offense worth talking about, what if I told you 24 points per game puts us at a borderline top 10 offense last year? Washington and NYJ averaged 24 ppg and ranked #10 and #11 respectively. Everybody complains about how Kyle's offenses don't score points, yet produced enough to rank on the outskirts of the top 10 last year. 

If that's not good enough, since Kyle is so polarizing and that's a futile argument to make, let's just put it in general perspective about the Falcons. The 2015 Falcons went 8-8. We all know that very well. What most of you don't know is those Falcons lost five games because they couldn't score 24 points. The same 24 points some of yall are acting like is trivial and not good enough to win with in this league. We lost the following games:

  • TB - 20-23 (OT)
  • SF - 16-17 
  • MIN - 10-20
  • TB - 19-23
  • NO - 17-20

We even lost to the Colts, 21-24. That's a game we could have won in OT potentially, but I'll exclude it since 24 points is the threshold. That means, if we scored just a measly 24 points, the same point output our offense put out on Sunday that a large number of posters here say is not good enough, the 2015 Falcons would have been 13-3. Let that sink in. 13-3. Not even Mike Smith hit that mark in year one, who ironically had an offense that averaged.........how many points students? TWENTY FOUR POINTS!!!

So, let's not act like 24 points shouldn't win games. 24 points should win plenty of games. Let's bring it back to Week One of this season. 24 points would have won 12 games out of 16. That's a 75:25 split of winnable games if we scored 24 points or more. 75%. Funny that 12-4 record from week 1 is almost the 13-3 record we would have had if we could have just scored 24 points last year. This offense needs to average 24-27 points per game and we should win at least 10 games. 

Another reason I have faith is that, although the defense allowed 31 points, which we can clearly conclude is a bad game defensively, we weren't gashed and killed in the process. Hear me out before you grumble and roll your eyes. When you look at the teams that allowed 30 points in week one, all of them would have ranked 32nd or worse in yards allowed last year except one: the Atlanta Falcons. Our yards allowed Sunday was 371, which would have been ranked 24th, 8 spots lower than our 2015 defense, which averaged 347 yards allowed. That's what gives me hope for improvement with our defense. They are young, they allowed a lot of points, which won't be the norm (only 2 times out of 160 tries in five years has this happened 1.25%), but they've got room to grow from the mistakes made to extend drives. They weren't being marched on at will, relatively speaking. I think we saw that on film, those of us who've actually watched the game with our beer goggles off. We got some stops that I don't think we get last year (D.Jones tackling Jameis in the open field for a solo third down stop negated by Clayborn's "offsides"; Campbell's great coverage on the deep wheel route but doesn't turn his head, instead face guarding which is legal in the NCAA). Yes, it was ugly, but our defense very well can make 24 points a winnable game for us. 

Remember, Rise Up or Get Gone!

Uh... yeah...

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44 minutes ago, dothan_birdman said:

I see your argument, but it seems a little hypothetically one sided...that only one team would increase their point totals....but yes 24 points SHOULD be enough to win.

Oh yes, definitely in a vacuum. Just putting it in perspective of 24 points being enough in more than most situations. Again, that's obviously not factoring in the opposing team's defense or obvious changes in the game. 

24 minutes ago, papachaz said:

but but but........back in an offseason interview,  didn't our quarterback said we should be able to get 30 points a game?

Haha yea and he was an idiot for saying that. Especially considering he's never thrown for 30 TDs in a season. As soon as I heard that, I chuckled given how few times that happens. It's unrealistic. 

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Yea and I agree about the defense. I made a thread yesterday claiming that I think the defense will improve as the season goes on. The offense was good enough in week 1. Running game got shut down, passing game responded. That's what good offenses do. We will have games where we run for 200 and pass for only 175. As long as they put up those points. Need help from the defense, can't keep committing these penalties on 3rd down

Edited by JD dirtybird21
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3 minutes ago, vel said:

Oh yes, definitely in a vacuum. Just putting it in perspective of 24 points being enough in more than most situations. Again, that's obviously not factoring in the opposing team's defense or obvious changes in the game. 

Haha yea and he was an idiot for saying that. Especially considering he's never thrown for 30 TDs in a season. As soon as I heard that, I chuckled given how few times that happens. It's unrealistic. 

well except that he threw for 32 in 2012......

only reason I remember that is because swift made a bet that if matt ever threw for 30 in a year, he'd leave the board. and then he didn't leave, LOL and I gave him absolute grief for it every time I saw a post by him after that. Until he was banned....LOL

 

but yeah I wondered about it when matt said it too

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1 minute ago, papachaz said:

well except that he threw for 32 in 2012......

only reason I remember that is because swift made a bet that if matt ever threw for 30 in a year, he'd leave the board. and then he didn't leave, LOL and I gave him absolute grief for it every time I saw a post by him after that. Until he was banned....LOL

Man I DEFINITELY overlooked that. And we still only averaged 26 points...

30 points is a hard feat. 

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1 minute ago, Drew4719 said:

The passing game was able to get us 24 points with no support from the run. If we could've got the run going Sunday we would've scored another touchdown, and there's your 30+ points. The Run Game is key, as soon as we can run the ball this offense will be leathal.

fix the redzone problems, turn the FG's into TD's and you've got it anyway as well as the W

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6 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

Yea and I agree about the defense. I made a thread yesterday claiming that I think the defense will improve as the season goes on. The offense was good enough in week 1. Running game got shut down, passing game responded. That's what good offenses do. We will have games where we run for 200 and pass for only 175. As long as they put up those points. Need help from the defense, can't keep committing these penalties on 3rd down

Exactly. If I changed just three routine/manageable plays:

  • Chester personal foul - took 3 points off the board
  • Clayborn's offsides - extended a 7 point drive that was ended
  • DeVondre Campbell taking a terrible angle on Sims - 4 extra points

The entire tone of this place would be different. That's a 27-20 game right there on two penalties and a rookie mistake. Obviously you can't, but the margin of error is so small in the NFL. 

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3 minutes ago, vel said:

Exactly. If I changed just three routine/manageable plays:

  • Chester personal foul - took 3 points off the board
  • Clayborn's offsides - extended a 7 point drive that was ended
  • DeVondre Campbell taking a terrible angle on Sims - 4 extra points

The entire tone of this place would be different. That's a 27-20 game right there on two penalties and a rookie mistake. Obviously you can't, but the margin of error is so small in the NFL. 

I don't know man. This board kind of blows up unless the Falcons win 34-0 every week. 

Your points are all great and you don't even mention the others like Campbell's pass interference on 3rd down which led to 3 extra points or Alford's personal foul on 3rd down which led to another 6. 

 

LOTS of mistakes by the defense. I don't expect them to continue to keep doing that

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18 minutes ago, papachaz said:

well except that he threw for 32 in 2012......

only reason I remember that is because swift made a bet that if matt ever threw for 30 in a year, he'd leave the board. and then he didn't leave, LOL and I gave him absolute grief for it every time I saw a post by him after that. Until he was banned....LOL

 

but yeah I wondered about it when matt said it too

It's not necessary as OP stated, but if you're wondering why Matt said it's a possibility, it's probably because the offense was averaging 32.5 PPG during that 5-0 stretch last season before guys started fumbling all over the place in Game 6 against the Saints.

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