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Redzone woes all fall on Boy Wonder


KRUNKuno
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Here's an article from the AJC upon news of Boy Wonder's hiring.  Though many here find the AJC to be bottom-tier, the stats here tell all and correlate strongly with how we performed last year.

 

FLOWERY BRANCH

Kyle Shanahan, who has agreed in principle to become the Falcons’ next offensive coordinator, will arrive with some major baggage.

Because of NFL hiring rules, the team can’t announce its selection of Seattle defensive coordinator Dan Quinn as the team’s next coach until after the Super Bowl on Feb. 1. Shanahan, 35, is his selection as offensive coordinator.  The Falcons’ braintrust took a flight to Seattle on Monday to interview Quinn for a second time and only had to agree to financial terms on what’s expected to be a four-year contract.

Former NFL and Georgia great Fran Tarkentonwas not too impressed with either of the pending hires.

“Hearing Dan Quinn as next #Falcons HC,” Tarkenton tweeted. “#NFL credentials? Inherited a good Seahawks D. Not much of a track record for Shanahan either.”

Things have gotten messy for Shanahan, the son of longtime NFL coach Mike Shanahan, in each of his past two NFL stops.

There was the highly publicized tiff between Shanahan, veteran quarterback Donovan McNabb and his agent Fletcher Smith which led to McNabb being benched in favor of Rex Grossman in 2010.

He was under heavy fire in Washington over his and his father’s use of Robert Griffin III and the play calling. They were both ultimately fired.

Last year in Cleveland, Shanahan didn’t approve of the front office’s mandate to play the much-hyped quarterback Johnny Manziel and requested to be released from the final two years of his contract. His request was granted.

After a quiet start to his career in Houston as the youngest offensive coordinator in league history at 28, controversy has followed Shanahan around like a cloud.

He’ll get a fresh start at Flowery Branch and have an established quarterback for the first time since he had Matt Schaub with the Texans in 2009. Shanahan replaces Dirk Koetter, who left to become the offensive coordinator with Tampa Bay.

With the Falcons, he’ll have two-time Pro Bowl quarterback Matt Ryan, who’s gone 10-22 over the past two seasons playing behind injury-ravaged lines and without the benefit of a strong rushing attack.

Shanahan will also have Julio Jones, a two-time Pro Bowl wide receiver. Over his two years in Houston, Andre Johnson caught 115 passes in 2008 and 101 in 2009.

Shanahan’s offenses, which tend to bog down in the red zone, have enjoyed some success in piling up yardage.

In four of his seven years as a coordinator, Shanahan’s offense has finished in the top 10 of the league in yardage. His offenses were third in overall yards in 2008, fourth in 2009, fifth in 2012 and ninth in 2013.

In 2010, they ranked 18th, 16th in 2011 and 23rdlast season in Cleveland.

The Texans led the league in passing in 2009 with 290.9 yards per game.

Behind the rushing of Alfred Morris and Griffin III, the Redskins led the league in rushing in 2012 with 169.3 yards per game.

Shanahan’s units have consistently struggled in the red zone. In six of his seven years as a coordinator, Shanahan’s unit have finished in the lower half of the league in red-zone percentage with rankings of 26th, 12th, 19th, 29th, tied 22nd, tied 20th and 24th.

His offense’s scoring rankings are equally unimpressive: 17th, 10th, 25th, 26th, 4th, 23rd, 27th.

http://m.ajc.com/news/sports/football/shanahan-will-come-to-falcons-with-baggage/njrRZ/

 

Last year we were:

5th in total yards per game

6th in passing yards

19th in rushing yards

18th in redzone efficiency

21st in scoring

Now it doesnt quite take a person that knows a lot about rockets to understand that a collection of numbers dont stray too far from the mean unless something drastic changes.  Redzone and scoring has always been an issue for Boy Wonder and he has yet to make the drastic change to correct the problem.  

 

Now let's take a look at Atlanta's rankings since Matt Ryan (08-14)

Scoring: 10th, 13th, 6th, 10th, 7th, 20th, 12th

Offense: 6th, 16th, 19th, 12th, 5th, 16th, 7th

Passing: 15th, 14th, 16th, 8th, 5th, 5th, 5th

Rushing: 3rd, 13th, 13th, 18th, 27th, 32nd, 24th

Redzone: 12th, 14th, 7th, 13th, 10th, 22nd, 6th

Interesting to note that while Ryan is deemed around here as falling off he ranked 5th in passing from 2012-2014 before being 6th last year.  Also, in 2012 we went to the NFC Championship with NO RUN GAME; another credit to Matt Ryan.  We were 19th in rushing last year.  For all those that say Boy Wonder fixed the running game i ask you how Sway?  Our redzone percentage before Boy Wonder has been particularly above average even ranking 6th before his arrival.

 

So again, since even before his hiring, I ask of you WHAT HAS KYLE SHANAHAN EVER DONE?

 

Credit to teamrankings.com for the stats.

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36 minutes ago, RandomFan said:

Apparently he did enough to impress Dan Quinn. So that's about all you should concern yourself with Sparky.

 

Also:

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/705/640/673.gif

 

It speaks to the decision-making of our head coach that he would bring in a coordinator with a below average track record and well documented history of being involved in disarray.  

It's funny how nobody has dared to dispute the stats yet and instead i'm just "beating a dead horse".  You guys usually have all the answers.

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I appreciate the stats and think they are pretty telling or discouraging depending how you look at it.

3rd in yards = 17th in scoring

4th in yards = 10th in scoring not bad

5th in yards = 4th in scoring

9th in yards = 23rd in scoring

5th in yds = 21 in scoring (last yr)

Those are the years he had a top 10 offense yardage wise. He is 25th, 26th, 27 in scoring in other years.

His best year was 2012. He had his dad that year and RG3 and Morris.

Teams couldn't defend the read option that year. It was easy for a QB. LBs creep up, throw behind them in the void.

He had the one other good year and I'm guessing that was with Schaub/Johnson/Foster.

So, I guess he is somewhat capable with the right weapons, which we have. I hope we clean up the TOs and get back into the top 10 in scoring this year.

I am optimistic, but these stats show that scoring can be an issue for him.

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18 minutes ago, Duff_Man said:

Keep bringing it up. Eventually you'll be right because nobody keeps a coaching job forever. 

He's just a guy who was asked to coach. Sorry it hurts your feelings, but it really doesn't warrant a zillion posts.

Exit stage left then.  Obviously you have no logical rebuttal or even acknowledgment of the stats I provided.

This thread is not for you.

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30 minutes ago, jeffro2000 said:

I appreciate the stats and think they are pretty telling or discouraging depending how you look at it.

3rd in yards = 17th in scoring

4th in yards = 10th in scoring not bad

5th in yards = 4th in scoring

9th in yards = 23rd in scoring

5th in yds = 21 in scoring (last yr)

Those are the years he had a top 10 offense yardage wise. He is 25th, 26th, 27 in scoring in other years.

His best year was 2012. He had his dad that year and RG3 and Morris.

Teams couldn't defend the read option that year. It was easy for a QB. LBs creep up, throw behind them in the void.

He had the one other good year and I'm guessing that was with Schaub/Johnson/Foster.

So, I guess he is somewhat capable with the right weapons, which we have. I hope we clean up the TOs and get back into the top 10 in scoring this year.

I am optimistic, but these stats show that scoring can be an issue for him.

The Schaub/Johnson years are too far back in history to be relevant in my eyes even with it being only 7-8 yrs ago.

Defenses were not as complex or dynamic then.  Teams werent employing linebackers that move like safeties.  Teams werent lining up in predominantly nickel packages.  The speed and complexities of defenses have changed.  Boy Wonder's system has not adapted to that change, and the stats show that he has never true success in the redzone even in his best years.  

My theory is that the field shrinks inside of the 20, routes become condensed, zone running becomes more easily defensed.  It's a bad combination for trying to score.  

Piling up a lot of yards has always been Boy Wonder's strong suit.  Inside the 20 has not.

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17 hours ago, Bring It said:

Redzone woes.

The last time I saw a Falcon receiver wide open in a redzone play.........Nixon was President. 

I think that we tend to forget that we have gone too far away from having a grind it our offense.  When we had Jamal Anderson, with Bob Christian as FB, we had no red zone problems.  When we had Dunn, Vick, and Duckett we had not Red Zone problems.  When we had Turner and Mughelli, we had no Red Zone problems.  This too cute offense stuff has been hurting us.  Tony Gonzalez made a difference, but they started attacking him.  Same goes for Julio.  Matt Ryan has not been a running threat since the Vikings almost tore him in half.  The lack of a dual threat hurts us.  We are easier to game plan against in the red zone.

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What an obviously slanted article and I'm guess Jeff Schultz wrote it as that's his go to card.

I'll actually go point by point with this:

1.  When highlighting his career, he throws Houston's offensive success as a footnote with a caveat.

2.  He mentions McNabb but doesn't mention that McNabb was traded IN DIVISION by the Eagles, that's how little they thought he had in the tank and they were proven right.  

3.  RG3 had his only good season under the Shanahan's.  Jay Gruden, QB guru, not only benched him but cut him.

4.  KS was 100% on Manziel wasn't he?  Who would want to be a part of that dumpster fire?  That said, author fails to mention that he made Brian Hoyer look competent.

Now on to the stats.

The Falcons were 2nd in 3rd down %, 1% behind 1st.  The Falcons were #1 in Time of Possession.

What killed the Falcons last year was turnovers.  How much of that is on the players and how much of that is on the playcalling?  I can't answer that one but I can say that I've heard tons of players say "If we execute correctly, then every play works".

Let's face it, KS hasn't exactly had the cream of the crop in QB's to work with.  I'm not gonna panic over 1 year in the system nor will I ever panic over preseason.  This isn't instant pudding...

 

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2 hours ago, KRUNKuno said:

The Schaub/Johnson years are too far back in history to be relevant in my eyes even with it being only 7-8 yrs ago.

Defenses were not as complex or dynamic then.  Teams werent employing linebackers that move like safeties.  Teams werent lining up in predominantly nickel packages.  The speed and complexities of defenses have changed.  Boy Wonder's system has not adapted to that change, and the stats show that he has never true success in the redzone even in his best years.  

My theory is that the field shrinks inside of the 20, routes become condensed, zone running becomes more easily defensed.  It's a bad combination for trying to score.  

Piling up a lot of yards has always been Boy Wonder's strong suit.  Inside the 20 has not.

Leaving aside the fact that "red zone efficiency" tends to be erratic year to year and isn't correlated with success to anywhere near the extent people think it is and the fact that teams incorporate zone and power concepts into their game plan across the league, how are you maintaining that zone blocking is a bad combination for scoring when three of the five highest scoring teams in the league last year were predominantly zone-based teams? 

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