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2016 House and Senate elections...


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1 hour ago, WhenFalconsWin said:

You just sidestepped the racism is not lucrative comment you just made.  

 

No I didn't. RNC is not matching 2012 fundraising up and down the ticket. Trump is racist. Therefore, Racism is not lucrative. I didn't think I needed to spelling out for political parties considering my original post was on RNC/NRCC/DNC/DCCC/ State Party fundraising. 

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31 minutes ago, GEORGIAfan said:

 

No I didn't. RNC is not matching 2012 fundraising up and down the ticket. Trump is racist. Therefore, Racism is not lucrative. I didn't think I needed to spelling out for political parties considering my original post was on RNC/NRCC/DNC/DCCC/ State Party fundraising. 

Al, Jesse, comment...Nevermind

 

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55 districts to flip in a Democratic wave election

wave0.png?1462065700

The Cook partisan voting index ranks the 435 Congressional districts according to percent advantage for either party, e.g., R+5 or D+10 relative to presidential preference. The map above shows highlighted in yellow the 55 districts currently held by a Republican but with less than an R+5 advantage, arguably the lowest hanging fruit within striking distance in a wave election that Trump might bring.

A 55-vote swing would put Congress in Democratic control.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/4/30/1521826/-45-districts-to-flip-in-a-Democratic-wave-election

 

These are the House districts that we will likely see DCCC attacking to flip. 

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4 hours ago, GEORGIAfan said:

55 districts to flip in a Democratic wave election

wave0.png?1462065700

The Cook partisan voting index ranks the 435 Congressional districts according to percent advantage for either party, e.g., R+5 or D+10 relative to presidential preference. The map above shows highlighted in yellow the 55 districts currently held by a Republican but with less than an R+5 advantage, arguably the lowest hanging fruit within striking distance in a wave election that Trump might bring.

A 55-vote swing would put Congress in Democratic control.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/4/30/1521826/-45-districts-to-flip-in-a-Democratic-wave-election

 

These are the House districts that we will likely see DCCC attacking to flip. 

GF, you should bet the farm this time around.  

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Just looked at the Senate polls and it's not good news for Democrats.  

Republican seats likely to swing Democratic:

Illinois and Wisconsin

Republican seats too close to call:

New Hampshire and Pennsylvania

Republican seats where the GOP is ahead by 4%+ in the polls:

Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and Missouri.  

Democrats need five seats to have a tie and six seats to hae a majority.  Maybe I'm missing something, but I'm not sure Democrats have a great shot at sneaking from behind in any of those states.  Perhaps a surprise on Election Day that's caused by lower GOP turnout due to Trump (assuming a big Clinton win, which isn't a safe assumption yet)?  Otherwise, at this point it looks like the GOP majority is safe this year. 

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19 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

Just looked at the Senate polls and it's not good news for Democrats.  

Republican seats likely to swing Democratic:

Illinois and Wisconsin

Republican seats too close to call:

New Hampshire and Pennsylvania

Republican seats where the GOP is ahead by 4%+ in the polls:

Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and Missouri.  

Democrats need five seats to have a tie and six seats to hae a majority.  Maybe I'm missing something, but I'm not sure Democrats have a great shot at sneaking from behind in any of those states.  Perhaps a surprise on Election Day that's caused by lower GOP turnout due to Trump (assuming a big Clinton win, which isn't a safe assumption yet)?  Otherwise, at this point it looks like the GOP majority is safe this year. 

Burr has to down!!!

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31 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

Just looked at the Senate polls and it's not good news for Democrats.  

Republican seats likely to swing Democratic:

Illinois and Wisconsin

Republican seats too close to call:

New Hampshire and Pennsylvania

Republican seats where the GOP is ahead by 4%+ in the polls:

Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and Missouri.  

Democrats need five seats to have a tie and six seats to hae a majority.  Maybe I'm missing something, but I'm not sure Democrats have a great shot at sneaking from behind in any of those states.  Perhaps a surprise on Election Day that's caused by lower GOP turnout due to Trump (assuming a big Clinton win, which isn't a safe assumption yet)?  Otherwise, at this point it looks like the GOP majority is safe this year. 

 

You forgot Indiana. Evan Bayh is getting his old seat back, plus it is plenty of time for senate races.  primary is still not over. Also NH is not too close to call. 

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3 minutes ago, GEORGIAfan said:

 

You forgot Indiana. Evan Bayh is getting his old seat back, plus it is plenty of time for senate races.  primary is still not over. Also NH is not too close to call. 

Yep, you're right that I forgot about Indiana.  Thanks.

Hardly any polling out there, but the only two polls we have on that race has the Democrat ahead.  If that holds then it's likely Democrats have a tie.  

There is plenty of time but some of those leads are going to be insurmountable, I suspect.  

As for NH, the polls that I'm looking at say that it's too close to call:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-ayotte-vs-hassan

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Democrats' Weak Bench Undermines Hope of Taking Back Senate - New York Times‎

 

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The Democrats’ problem stems from a depletion of their ranks in state legislatures and governors’ mansions over recent years and a lack of institutional support for grass-roots-level politicians who represent a changing base.

 

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Florida’s Senate Democratic primary this Tuesday pits a bombastic, populist liberal, Representative Alan Grayson, against the establishment’s pick, Representative Patrick Murphy, in the kind of showdown that analysts expect to see in the party’s future.

“Democrats are going to have their own Tea Party moment in 2018,” said Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor and Senate analyst for The Cook Political Report. “I don’t think they are going to put up with the party dictating who their candidates are.”

 

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“The bench is not apparent right now,” said David Axelrod, the chief strategist for Mr. Obama’s presidential campaigns. “There are some impressive young leaders, but who among them is the next presidential nominee I can’t answer. A lot of them are not there yet.”

“Democrats have done a poor job, and I take my share of responsibility here, in not being as focused as Republicans have on building at the grass roots,” Mr. Axelrod said. “Look what the G.O.P. and their related agents have done with legislative and City Council and school board races. They are building capacity, and Democrats have paid the cost.”

 

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2 minutes ago, Billy Ocean said:

The "Tea Party moment" is what worries me the most.  Sanders' campaign showed that there's a large anti-establishment left-wing in the Democratic Party that's ready to be mobilized.  My hope is that Democrats are better at managing that wing better than Republicans have done managing the Tea Party wing of their party.  But neither party has a lot of control over primary elections, so I'm afraid we'll see some dumb and/or fringe candidates that screw up Democrats' chances at getting or keeping a majority in Congress.  

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12 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

The "Tea Party moment" is what worries me the most.  Sanders' campaign showed that there's a large anti-establishment left-wing in the Democratic Party that's ready to be mobilized.  My hope is that Democrats are better at managing that wing better than Republicans have done managing the Tea Party wing of their party.  But neither party has a lot of control over primary elections, so I'm afraid we'll see some dumb and/or fringe candidates that screw up Democrats' chances at getting or keeping a majority in Congress.  

Meh. Even though I support It, Our Revolution(Bernie's new group) is failing. Berniecrats have been unable to mimic the success of Bernie during this primary. I just think Bernie's success had more to do with Hillary not being as inspiring as Bernie. Take HRC's platform and support and give it to a charismatic politician, and that person crushes Bernie. Plus if Kihuen is any evidence, the establishment has no problem backing progressive candidates so long as they believe they have a chance at winning. 

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On 8/26/2016 at 0:19 PM, Leon Troutsky said:

The "Tea Party moment" is what worries me the most.  Sanders' campaign showed that there's a large anti-establishment left-wing in the Democratic Party that's ready to be mobilized.  My hope is that Democrats are better at managing that wing better than Republicans have done managing the Tea Party wing of their party.  But neither party has a lot of control over primary elections, so I'm afraid we'll see some dumb and/or fringe candidates that screw up Democrats' chances at getting or keeping a majority in Congress.  

The Tea Party became a problem because the GOP embraced them for political opportunism and then kept prodding and stringing them along to win elections. Bernouts, by contrast, have not been embraced by the Democrats and if/when their people do win some primaries and start saying and doing things that damage the party then the party will most likely cut them off from the herd.

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