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2016 House and Senate elections...


Leon Troutsky
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Since so much focus is on the presidential election - and because that thread is 300+ pages long - we need a thread for the congressional elections this year.

I just read this article on The Monkey Cage (a WashPost blog run by political scientists) about how the GOP gerrymander could backfire on them this year:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/08/10/the-republicans-big-gerrymander-could-backfire-in-a-major-way/

Basically, Republicans now control most of the marginal districts in the House, and these are the seats most likely to swing Democratic during an election year.  This could be even more true if Trump remains deeply unpopular and loses by a large margin to Clinton.

Doesn't make it *likely* that Democrats pick up the House, but it does make it more likely than during past years.

As for the Senate, here's the latest polling for those races:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster#2016-senate-races

While the map itself suggests that Democrats should easily take the majority, it's interesting that the polls in states most likely to be picked up by Democrats have Republicans ahead or evenly tied at this point.  That's something that could also quickly change in the Democrats' favor as we get closer to the election, but for now it doesn't look like a clean sweep of those GOP seats in Democratic states...yet.

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16 minutes ago, Billy Ocean said:

Only reason he lost his seat was because he refused to SuperPAC and DSCC support. He is a strong believer in campaign finance reform and sticks to his word and Tea Party wave. Hopefully his next campaign finance reform bill does not get struck down.

 

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Hopefully this means HRC will stop trying to expand into Indiana and focus. As much as I would like GA to flip, I think helping house and senate races is more important. Bayh has Indy on lock.  Dems are never going to win GASEN this year. It is better to focus on AZSEN MOSEN and NCSEN. 

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3 hours ago, WhenFalconsWin said:

Corrupt parties always raise more money than the less corrupt party.  

 

This is implying that the Republican Party is more corrupt than the Democratic Party, since they always raise more money than the dems. This has been the only cycle recently where that was not true and it has only been not true since Trump was the nominee. 

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31 minutes ago, WhenFalconsWin said:

Ask Al or Jesse, I'd bet they'd disagree with you.  For them it is a lucrative business.  

 

I don't remember al or Jesse calling an entire group of people rapist and criminals or advocating for a ban on a religion. We are also taking about a political party. 

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1 hour ago, WhenFalconsWin said:

You just sidestepped the racism is not lucrative comment you just made.  

 

No I didn't. RNC is not matching 2012 fundraising up and down the ticket. Trump is racist. Therefore, Racism is not lucrative. I didn't think I needed to spelling out for political parties considering my original post was on RNC/NRCC/DNC/DCCC/ State Party fundraising. 

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55 districts to flip in a Democratic wave election

wave0.png?1462065700

The Cook partisan voting index ranks the 435 Congressional districts according to percent advantage for either party, e.g., R+5 or D+10 relative to presidential preference. The map above shows highlighted in yellow the 55 districts currently held by a Republican but with less than an R+5 advantage, arguably the lowest hanging fruit within striking distance in a wave election that Trump might bring.

A 55-vote swing would put Congress in Democratic control.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/4/30/1521826/-45-districts-to-flip-in-a-Democratic-wave-election

 

These are the House districts that we will likely see DCCC attacking to flip. 

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