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Does Matt Ryan have to improve for the Falcons to improve?


theProf
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On 7/16/2016 at 0:40 AM, Falconsfan567 said:

This is a slightly modified post I just made in another thread and it fits perfectly here.

  • Ryan - 407/614 (66.3%), 4591 YDS (7.5), 21 TD, 16 INT - 89.0 QB Rating - 61.79 QBR

Seriously, Ryan wasn't nearly as bad last year as people want to believe. He just had a few more WTF moments than normal for him in a season. And before anyone even says it, yes, every other QB in the NFL including da God Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady has a few WTF moments every year. The issue is that you folks aren't watching every single game they play with the same intensity you do Ryan's games so you don't remember those moments, especially if you only look at the highlights.

The great news though is that Matt Ryan will play better in 2016 and have less WTF moments. Couple that with the improvements made to the team across the board and the Atlanta Falcons are ready to soar in 2016.

He made a handful (which was a little larger than his normal handful) of key mistakes in high leverage situations. Those mistakes significantly contributed (if not out right caused) the team to lose games. 

Other than that handful of plays, he was still good. He was still very accurate, lost a ton of production to drops, was the burden bearer of a large number of weird happenings/bad calls, etc. When you start looking at those plays individual, it isnt tough to see his year being much much better than it looks on paper. 

I'm confident that more time working in this offense will cause those key mistakes to dwindle in number and I think it's unlikely to see them pop up in the same number of high leverage situations as last year. 

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To answer the question....

 

Yes, for Falcons to get better, Matt Ryan does have to improve in his decision making, especially in critical moments in games and down in red zone...

 

And yes, I think he will do that, and team will be better. 

Edited by Vandy
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1 hour ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

He made a handful (which was a little larger than his normal handful) of key mistakes in high leverage situations. Those mistakes significantly contributed (if not out right caused) the team to lose games. 

Other than that handful of plays, he was still good. He was still very accurate, lost a ton of production to drops, was the burden bearer of a large number of weird happenings/bad calls, etc. When you start looking at those plays individual, it isnt tough to see his year being much much better than it looks on paper. 

I'm confident that more time working in this offense will cause those key mistakes to dwindle in number and I think it's unlikely to see them pop up in the same number of high leverage situations as last year. 

I think that sums it up pretty well. We will be able to tell by looking at the score board in the final analysis.

Things look all around better going in to camp. I would prefer to have retained Jake Long but other than that I am good.

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2 hours ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

He made a handful (which was a little larger than his normal handful) of key mistakes in high leverage situations. Those mistakes significantly contributed (if not out right caused) the team to lose games. 

Other than that handful of plays, he was still good. He was still very accurate, lost a ton of production to drops, was the burden bearer of a large number of weird happenings/bad calls, etc. When you start looking at those plays individual, it isnt tough to see his year being much much better than it looks on paper. 

I'm confident that more time working in this offense will cause those key mistakes to dwindle in number and I think it's unlikely to see them pop up in the same number of high leverage situations as last year. 

Plus having an established Center like Alex Mack. Yes the new Offensive System led to some problems last year. However, I think a lot of Ryan's problems last season was having no confidence in the Center making good snaps, nor making the proper line calls. So with erratic and bad snaps,  coupled with pressure coming in too quickly and too often, on top of a new and different offensive system, all messed with Ryan's head imo.

BTW Larry congratulations (or condolences) on becoming an Administrator for these message boards. I know that you will do an outstanding job on a very difficult and rather thankless task.

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3 minutes ago, theProf said:

Plus having an established Center like Alex Mack. Yes the new Offensive System led to some problems last year. However, I think a lot of Ryan's problems last season was having no confidence in the Center making good snaps, nor making the proper line calls. So with erratic and bad snaps,  coupled with pressure coming in too quickly and too often, on top of a new and different offensive system, all messed with Ryan's head imo.

BTW Larry congratulations (or condolences) on becoming an Administrator for these message boards. I know that you will do an outstanding job on a very difficult and rather thankless task.

Thanks dude! I appreciate the good will!

I'm sure the center part of it had an impact but by my eye, so many of those "bad decisions" were either made into windows that WERE open but the throw came a beat or two too late or appeared to be pretty flagrant miscommunications. 

I do think Mack will help with protections, consistency of the snap and will help a ton in the run game. 

The offense should bounce back this year. Last year was an aberration in the offensive performance of this team under Matt Ryan. History shows us that those sorts of significant declines from an established baseline usually bounce back to form the following year. 

If our offense would have played to its normal level year, this team would have won at least 10 games and most likely made the playoffs. I dont think we would have been a legitimate contender but we would have made the playoffs. 

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On 7/17/2016 at 7:52 AM, Mid-Nite-Toker said:

Ultimately, QBs are paid for the former...elevate a team.  Isn't that the expectation?

I think our QB had and does have a decent supporting cast.  

We certainly had one last year...no elevation.

I just heard Charley Casserley get on NFL Network and say quote "I don't think Aaron Rodgers played as bad last year as most people think. He lost Jordy Nelson before the season started and his other receivers dropped a lot of passes. Eddie Lacy was overweight and the offensive line didn't protect him. Aaron tried to make up for all of that by making plays and instead forced balls and made a lot of mistakes as a result."

People like you and Swift and a few others swear that QBs like Aaron Rodgers perform and elevate the level of play of those around them and yet here we are with people pointing out that Aaron Rodgers did not do that in 2015. Why? Because its a flat out lie that QBs are able to perform regardless of the pieces around them. That is why the insane amount of hate that is heaped upon Matt Ryan by fools like you on this message board is a joke and unjust.

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20 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

I just heard Charley Casserley get on NFL Network and say quote "I don't think Aaron Rodgers played as bad last year as most people think. He lost Jordy Nelson before the season started and his other receivers dropped a lot of passes. Eddie Lacy was overweight and the offensive line didn't protect him. Aaron tried to make up for all of that by making plays and instead forced balls and made a lot of mistakes as a result."

People like you and Swift and a few others swear that QBs like Aaron Rodgers perform and elevate the level of play of those around them and yet here we are with people pointing out that Aaron Rodgers did not do that in 2015. Why? Because its a flat out lie that QBs are able to perform regardless of the pieces around them. That is why the insane amount of hate that is heaped upon Matt Ryan by fools like you on this message board is a joke and unjust.

Yep. 

Its obvious to anyone who watches the league that any given QB's fortunes (not the TEAM fortunes....the QB's fortunes) rises and falls with the situation around them. Perhaps not to an equal level and certainly each QB has a different baseline. But this notion that there are QBs who can turn garbage situations into situations conducive for consistent winning simply isnt accurate. 

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On July 19, 2016 at 2:30 PM, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Can we please stop with this redzone nonsense? Jesus. 

Do,you disagree  with virtually the entire message board that Ryan threw more interceptions than usual when our offense was down in or near what most would say is "scoring position"?

Whether it is **exactly** from the 20 as "red zone" indicates in is really irrelevant to the point being made.

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7 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Yep. 

Its obvious to anyone who watches the league that any given QB's fortunes (not the TEAM fortunes....the QB's fortunes) rises and falls with the situation around them. Perhaps not to an equal level and certainly each QB has a different baseline. But this notion that there are QBs who can turn garbage situations into situations conducive for consistent winning simply isnt accurate. 

Exactly.

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25 minutes ago, gazoo said:

Do,you disagree  with virtually the entire message board that Ryan threw more interceptions than usual when our offense was down in or near what most would say is "scoring position"?

Whether it is **exactly** from the 20 as "red zone" indicates in is really irrelevant to the point being made.

1) I disagree that "red zone offense" matters to the extent that people think it does. Offensive performance matters. That doesnt change from the 21 to the 19. 

2) I disagree with the notion that over the course of his career, Matt Ryan has somehow been a deficient QB in "the red zone"

3) I disagree that Matt Ryan was responsible for a large amount of turnovers in the redzone in 2015. 

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3 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

1) I disagree that "red zone offense" matters to the extent that people think it does. Offensive performance matters. That doesnt change from the 21 to the 19. 

2) I disagree with the notion that over the course of his career, Matt Ryan has somehow been a deficient QB in "the red zone"

3) I disagree that Matt Ryan was responsible for a large amount of turnovers in the redzone in 2015. 

Hey you're blue!  Neat! :tiphat:

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3 hours ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

1) I disagree that "red zone offense" matters to the extent that people think it does. Offensive performance matters. That doesnt change from the 21 to the 19. 

2) I disagree with the notion that over the course of his career, Matt Ryan has somehow been a deficient QB in "the red zone"

3) I disagree that Matt Ryan was responsible for a large amount of turnovers in the redzone in 2015. 

We are both in agreement with all 3 of your disagreements. 

 

However, it still didn't answer my question:

"Do,you disagree  with virtually the entire message board that Ryan threw more interceptions than usual when our offense was down in or near what most would say is "scoring position"?.

I'll go first. I do agree with virtually the entire message board that Ryan threw more interceptions than usual once we got down in or near scoring position. Further , I believe there are understandable reasons why.

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MR will be the same guy he was at BC and now in Atlanta.  mid to low 20's for TD's and middle teens on interceptions.   scheme and many other issues last year put the team in positions where more "forced" throws and mis-communications caused many costly turnovers in critical situations.  The rest of the roster must play better.    IF MR can miraculously keep the INT's to single digits he will be voted to the ProBowl and forced to miss it because the team will be playing deep into the playoff's. 

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14 hours ago, gazoo said:

We are both in agreement with all 3 of your disagreements. 

 

However, it still didn't answer my question:

"Do,you disagree  with virtually the entire message board that Ryan threw more interceptions than usual when our offense was down in or near what most would say is "scoring position"?.

I'll go first. I do agree with virtually the entire message board that Ryan threw more interceptions than usual once we got down in or near scoring position. Further , I believe there are understandable reasons why.

Yes, I disagree with that notion. The only two he actually threw were against Philly (Kiko play) and against Minnesota (awful decision). The other "red zone interceptions" were flukey plays beyond his control. 

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8 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Yes, I disagree with that notion. The only two he actually threw were against Philly (Kiko play) and against Minnesota (awful decision). The other "red zone interceptions" were flukey plays beyond his control. 

I think it's a natural tendency to reduce all problems to the QB.  When the reality is, we had red zone fumbles caused by RBs and the C and other issues in the RZ.  We also had some TDs taken off the books, which were then immediately followed by INTs or other turnovers.

And people remember that, and associate it with Matt Ryan, even where Ryan had zero control over the turnover.

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29 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

I think it's a natural tendency to reduce all problems to the QB.  When the reality is, we had red zone fumbles caused by RBs and the C and other issues in the RZ.  We also had some TDs taken off the books, which were then immediately followed by INTs or other turnovers.

And people remember that, and associate it with Matt Ryan, even where Ryan had zero control over the turnover.

100%. If you go back and watch all of the red zone TO plays you'll notice that many of them were immediately preceded by mistakes/errors/bad calls etc. I have a hard time getting on Matt Ryan's case when he routinely put his teammates in situations conducive to success only to see them drop a ball or tip a ball in the air or whatever. 

He certainly didnt play perfect football and he did look a bit more unsettled than years past. And he absolutely made a handful of really poor decisions in high leverage moments. He can't do that and have the team still succeed. But when a ref calls an incomplete pass an INT or rules that Julio didnt cross the plane when he did? Meh. 

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6 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

100%. If you go back and watch all of the red zone TO plays you'll notice that many of them were immediately preceded by mistakes/errors/bad calls etc. I have a hard time getting on Matt Ryan's case when he routinely put his teammates in situations conducive to success only to see them drop a ball or tip a ball in the air or whatever. 

He certainly didnt play perfect football and he did look a bit more unsettled than years past. And he absolutely made a handful of really poor decisions in high leverage moments. He can't do that and have the team still succeed. But when a ref calls an incomplete pass an INT or rules that Julio didnt cross the plane when he did? Meh. 

I would also argue that, if one play costs you the game, the entire team didn't do enough to win.

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16 hours ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Yep. 

Its obvious to anyone who watches the league that any given QB's fortunes (not the TEAM fortunes....the QB's fortunes) rises and falls with the situation around them. Perhaps not to an equal level and certainly each QB has a different baseline. But this notion that there are QBs who can turn garbage situations into situations conducive for consistent winning simply isnt accurate. 

Exactly. Phillip Rivers is a the prime example. That guy is easily one of the best QBs in the league but most people immediately brush that off and look directly at his teams playoffs games throughout his career. Rivers hasn't gotten worse, his team has

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3 minutes ago, falconidae said:

I would also argue that, if one play costs you the game, the entire team didn't do enough to win.

Yes! That's what many people don't seem to fathom. Ryan in virtually his entire career has done arguably "enough" to win 75% of the games he started. That includes the 2012 NFCCG. Yet people label him a choker or even a replaceable player when it's his defense and supporting cast that deserve just as much if not more blame for the losses. TD and Smitty failed the fans, not Ryan. 

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10 minutes ago, falconidae said:

I would also argue that, if one play costs you the game, the entire team didn't do enough to win.

I mean...there is something to the fact that a large portion of NFL games are really close and hinge on a small handful of plays. Maybe not ONE play but a small handful. And there were times last year where Ryan interceptions legitimately cost this team immensely (TB/NO come to mind immediately). But thats a completely difference discussion that would be like a crazy rabbit hole. 

Suffice to say it would be pretty great if the whole team continued to move forward. 

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2 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

I mean...there is something to the fact that a large portion of NFL games are really close and hinge on a small handful of plays. Maybe not ONE play but a small handful. And there were times last year where Ryan interceptions legitimately cost this team immensely (TB/NO come to mind immediately). But thats a completely difference discussion that would be like a crazy rabbit hole. 

Suffice to say it would be pretty great if the whole team continued to move forward. 

Understand, a lot of posters here are going to assume my statement was an excuse for Ryan when it's just a general observation.

 

Looking forward to this year, I think Ryan has the best team around him [ assuming the youngsters on the D come through] since 2012, and in 2012, they were a small handful of plays away from the super bowl.

There's an energy with this team we haven't seen for a while- all the draft picks signed immediately, everyone came to OTAs in great shape, think this could be a year like 2008- where no one was expecting anything from the Falcons and they have a really good year.

 

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18 minutes ago, falconidae said:

I would also argue that, if one play costs you the game, the entire team didn't do enough to win.

I agree, though I will say that in playoff games, the one play is magnified because you don't have the margin for error against really good teams you do against regular season schlub teams.

Having said that, though, even in the playoffs, rarely are two teams so well matched that one play literally makes the difference.

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I think I can complete passes to Levine Toilolo in the red zone. There are tight windows down below in the endzone and it is wide open up top. We would prefer to make it difficult it appears. We can be more tactical without trick plays and trying to fit the ball through raised arms and helmets of defenders to find a rb or slot receiver. We ignore the strength of our personnel. Julio can out jump anybody and Levine is way taller than anybody else. If they fall down or something then you hunt for a shorter guy in traffic and try to fit it in. So for those who think Matt Ryan is dynamite in the redzone as it is, I have news for you, he can be better. Any one of us can draw up plays in the dirt like we did in the back yard to get the ball to the dominant kid. We are not even at that level in our play calling. We refuse the low hanging fruit.

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