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Time to Shed Some Light and Historical Facts to Dispel Some of This the Ignorance Driven Crying Regarding Falcons Drafts Under Dimitroff


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Let me begin by saying that I am not a Thomas Dimitroff apologist.  What I mean by that is that I am not here to spin his every move into a positive, or to make excuses for his misses.  I am a realist.  Dimitroff has made his fair share of mistakes.  At this time of year, I also prefer to be an optimist, because not one expert or analyst knows how well any team drafted at this time of year.  The 2012 Seahawks Draft Class that yielded Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson, and J.R. Sweezy was instrumental in bringing a championship to Seattle, but was unheralded by the media.  The class was not given a very good grade.

What I do intend to do is to eliminate bias towards Dimitroff regarding his draft history by providing readers with some historical, factual data, which will quickly dispel any support of logical rationalizations for the exorbitant amount of crying, whining, blame-tossing, and mud-slinging on him.

http://www.draftsite.com/nfl/draft-history/2016/

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft

The above are two sites you can use to access historical draft information.  It is quite beneficial to go back to 2008 and look at how many players from that draft are still in the league and contributing to teams as of last season.  The Falcons drafted 5 that fit into that category.  Considering that the average life span of a player is less than 3 years, that's rather remarkable.  Kroy Biermann was one of the best late round picks in the draft, when you consider many of those guys never contributed to their team in any meaningful way and have been out of the league.  Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco are the only QBs in that class that have done anything.  Dimitroff got the Falcons a franchise QB (and probably the best pick in the first round) that led us to five straight winning seasons and multiple playoff appearances, and as I recall, many of you wanted Glenn Dorsey in the first and Chad Henne in the 2nd.  Hmmm.

In 2009, T.D. absolutely missed in Round 1 drafting Peria Jerry.  How much of this had to do with the injury his rookie year?  Idk, but it is a big swing and a miss.  The Falcons passed on Clay Matthews.  The big reason they did, though, is because of scheme fit.  T.D. and Smith did not see Matthews fitting into a 4-3, and he wasn't drafted to do so either.  In Round 2, the Falcons got William Moore, one of the best picks in that round that contributed as a starter for many years here.  I won't go through the whole draft, but when you look and see where T.D. missed, look and see how many others did.  Look and see how many GMs missed big, and continue to miss big.  Why is that? 

Let's do the math.  There are 32 teams in the NFL with 53 roster spots apiece.  That is 1696 roster spots.  Each year there are over 250 players drafted plus UDFAs that enter the league.  Let's be conservative and say 275 new players each year.  In 6 seasons 1650 new players enter the league.  That's almost an entirely new NFL.  Except there are many players that play for over a decade, especially the good QBs, linemen, WRs, LBs, Safeties, Kickers and Punters. There are solid NFL players that play for 7 or 8 years or 9, like RBs, CBs, etc.  Let's go back to Kroy Biermann: 7 years.  Not a star, not even a guy you want starting, but good depth and a good run defender.  There are many of these players in the NFL, meaning many of the 275 new players who come into the NFL don't even make it year 1. 

If you look down the list of 3rd day players from 2008 onward you will not find many that are still around.  Most of them never really contributed much at all.  In 2008, Dimitroff drafted Vance Walker in the 7th, maybe the best 7th rounder drafted that year. 

In 2010, another swing and a miss for a first, Sean Weatherspoon.  (Although he is back now.) Yet it's another miss due to injury, not actual talent.  Our 2nd rounder went that year to Kansas City for Tony Gonzalez.  It was a brilliant move.  The pick became Javier Arenas, and if you look at the 2nd Round that year, you won't find anyone you would have taken over Tony for four years.  (Remember the average life-span of an NFL player?)  In Round 3, Dimitroff drafted Corey Peters and was heavily criticized for it.  But yet again, the AFMB was wrong, and he was right.  Peters is a good player that has also been hampered somewhat by injuries.  Who would have drafted Jimmy Graham in Round 3 after adding Tony Gonzalez?  Who would have rather had Jimmy Graham than Tony Gonzalez in 2010?  Hindsight is 20/20.

2011 was the year of Julio Jones.  I'll just say that that draft class was one of the best ever.  And Thomas Dimitroff drafted a Hall of Fame player.  Giving up an extra first and a few mid round picks were worth it once you consider the percentages of those players who actually stick in the league and make major contributions.  He also made the right move a few years ago by going up and getting Trufant at 21, one of the best players drafted all that year.  And while he was criticized for getting Alford in Round 2, none of you seem to have much of a problem with that now, do you.  Seems to me like Dimitroff is a free swinger who gets more criticism for when he strikes out for when he hits the game changing homerun.

My main qualms with Dimitroff has not been trading down to balance out the trade ups.  Logically, the more picks you have, the greater percentage of finding contributors.  2012 was also an absolutely horrendous draft class that put this team a couple steps back.  He must shoulder much of the blame for this.  He also shoulders blame for not preparing for the loss of Tony.  Atlanta could have had players like Zach Ertz or Travis Kelce.  But much of the criticism is unbalanced.  It's like knocking a free swinger for striking out 100 times and not giving him credit for hitting 40 homers.  Historically, in comparison with many other teams, Dimitroff receives some criticisms that are based squarely on ignorance of draft history and the harsh reality of the numbers game when it comes to roster spots in the NFL.

The good news is that the last two draft years, the Falcons, with Quinn working closely with Dimitroff, hve been drafting very similarly to the way Pete Carroll and the Seahawks have drafted.  Since Carrroll became the head coach of Seattle, they have been some of the best at drafting for their team in the NFL.  They draft scheme specific and are often said to rech on players, but there is a defined vision for each position.  There seems to be a more focused attempt on addressing certain issues that have plagued this team for many years, now, too, under Quinn's guidance.  It appears very much to me that T.D. is a GM that works closely to get his head coach the kind of groceries he wants to cook with.

I'm 100% certain that most people who whine and cry about the Falcons draft picks every year would have this team picking #1 overall every year.  But we don't have the luxury of putting your choices under the microscope years later, now do we?

Quit yer whinin'.

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Very well thought out, backed up and spot on.

This is really going to upset the haters and they are probably of in a chat room somewhere working on a fraudulent narrative to combat this.

I can already see the "you can't compare Seattle to Atlanta" in an attempt to not have to face the merit of your post.

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ig·no·rance
ˈiɡnərəns/
noun
noun: ignorance
  1. lack of knowledge or information.
     
    Let me dispel the notion that there is a lot of ignorant crying over Dimitroff's draft choices. The falcons traded  the 29th pick overall to get Jon Abraham. Abraham was effective but never had anyone on the other side that was as effective. There was no ignorance on anyone who follows the falcons that we needed an effective pass rusher opposite Abraham and we never drafted or signed one. Abraham is gone, Beasley is drafted and ,I as a fan , see the same pattern developing.  I do not want to go draft after draft saying we need a guy opposite Beasley like we did with Abraham. Imo Dimitroff
    is relying to much on the coaches when drafting defensive linemen especially rush ends. He has been here long enough
    that the team should have effective book end defensive tackles. It can't be that hard that you haven't produced that since you've been the GM of the Falcons.
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Very good post. The problem is, fans don't put the hits and misses in to any context, because most people have no real idea how many hits and misses there are in different areas of the draft and what the chances are of finding a good player. They also set the bar too high when it comes to determining who the hits are.

Fans complain that we don't find enough late round "gems", whilst talking about guys like Sherman and Hardy. They fail to consider that it's about one in every 40 picks in rounds 3-7 that makes a pro-bowl, and many of them are "only" make the pro-bowl as special teamers. The chances of finding an offensive of defensive pro-bowler in the letter rounds is very small.

Despite his shortcomings, Kroy Biermann was a really good pick for us in the 5th round, but you wouldn't get many on here who would say he was a hit.

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If you just have a good idea of the "standard" hit and miss rates by round, it puts most of this in perspective.

Roughly, chances of getting a multi year starter by round:

First round:  70%

Second round:  50%

Third Round:  30%

Fourth Round:  20%

Fifth-Seventh:  13,13,9

So, one out of two of your 2nd rounders should be a regular starter.

One out of 3 of your 3rd rounders should be a regular starter.

One out of 4 or 5 of your 4th rounders should be a starter.

And you should get one starter every 3 years from anywhere in your 5th-7th picks.

 

That adds up to 2 consistent starters per year, on average, for the NFL.

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I don't think it has been TDs drafting that has hurt us as much as poor roster management. Still I do not think TD is as good at the draft as he believes he is. Finally he has had to admit some of this.

We have traded too many picks and let players go with no one to really replace them. We have created some of our own holes and then tried to fill them through the draft.

I'm ok with TD if he can admit his part in killing us after 2012 and pull his head out of his 4th point of contact. He seems on his way to doing better but we will see. My only regret as of right now that we kind of scapegoated Smith and those coaches in Tampa may have a bit of an axe to grind.

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9 minutes ago, Sobeit said:

I don't think it has been TDs drafting that has hurt us as much as poor roster management. Still I do not think TD is as good at the draft as he believes he is. Finally he has had to admit some of this.

We have traded too many picks and let players go with no one to really replace them. We have created some of our own holes and then tried to fill them through the draft.

I'm ok with TD if he can admit his part in killing us after 2012 and pull his head out of his 4th point of contact. He seems on his way to doing better but we will see. My only regret as of right now that we kind of scapegoated Smith and those coaches in Tampa may have a bit of an axe to grind.

I'm sure Smith didn't like being handed his pink slip but at the same time he's a smart, mature man and realizes that the chances of him turning things around were slim.  To Smith's credit, he deserves credit for being on the clock when the foundation of the team was put it motion.... that being the drafting of Ryan and Julio.  If just one of those two were not here right now we wouldn't have the luxury of just focusing on the defense.  He got fans hoping again and for that I thank him for his service but now I'm fully invested in DQ and his staff, including Dimitroff and Co.  

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35 minutes ago, Jerry Maguire said:

Who would you have drafted opposite of Abraham, and who would you have drafted this year opposite of Beasley?

Didn't you and I both want us to draft Tamba Hali that year? Or am I thinking of somebody else?

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9 minutes ago, Road Warrior said:

I'm sure Smith didn't like being handed his pink slip but at the same time he's a smart, mature man and realizes that the chances of him turning things around were slim.  To Smith's credit, he deserves credit for being on the clock when the foundation of the team was put it motion.... that being the drafting of Ryan and Julio.  If just one of those two were not here right now we wouldn't have the luxury of just focusing on the defense.  He got fans hoping again and for that I thank him for his service but now I'm fully invested in DQ and his staff, including Dimitroff and Co.  

If you do not think they will relish coming in to the Dome this year and kicking us in the teeth you better think again.

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In 2007, we brought in a new regime and blew up our core, Vick , Crumpler, D. Hall etc. I'm sure Dimitroff expected to be drafting in the top half of the rounds for a few years, until the team could be rebuilt. Instead we went 11 and 5 that 1st year, in route to 5 winning seasons in a row. Yet, we were our best play maker away, (Abraham), from winning it all in 2012! I appreciate that accomplishment and look forward to our staff making another run in the near future!

 

GO FALCONS!!!!!

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3 minutes ago, Sobeit said:

If you do not think they will relish coming in to the Dome this year and kicking us in the teeth you better think again.

Didn't mean that.  Just think at this point he's forgotten about ATL... they already beat our *** twice last year.  Although i don't know what the **** they were thinking by Firing Lovie.  

 

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Just now, Jerry Maguire said:

Let me begin by saying that I am not a Thomas Dimitroff apologist.  What I mean by that is that I am not here to spin his every move into a positive, or to make excuses for his misses.  I am a realist.  Dimitroff has made his fair share of mistakes.  At this time of year, I also prefer to be an optimist, because not one expert or analyst knows how well any team drafted at this time of year.  The 2012 Seahawks Draft Class that yielded Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson, and J.R. Sweezy was instrumental in bringing a championship to Seattle, but was unheralded by the media.  The class was not given a very good grade.

What I do intend to do is to eliminate bias towards Dimitroff regarding his draft history by providing readers with some historical, factual data, which will quickly dispel any support of logical rationalizations for the exorbitant amount of crying, whining, blame-tossing, and mud-slinging on him.

http://www.draftsite.com/nfl/draft-history/2016/

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft

The above are two sites you can use to access historical draft information.  It is quite beneficial to go back to 2008 and look at how many players from that draft are still in the league and contributing to teams as of last season.  The Falcons drafted 5 that fit into that category.  Considering that the average life span of a player is less than 3 years, that's rather remarkable.  Kroy Biermann was one of the best late round picks in the draft, when you consider many of those guys never contributed to their team in any meaningful way and have been out of the league.  Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco are the only QBs in that class that have done anything.  Dimitroff got the Falcons a franchise QB (and probably the best pick in the first round) that led us to five straight winning seasons and multiple playoff appearances, and as I recall, many of you wanted Glenn Dorsey in the first and Chad Henne in the 2nd.  Hmmm.

In 2009, T.D. absolutely missed in Round 1 drafting Peria Jerry.  How much of this had to do with the injury his rookie year?  Idk, but it is a big swing and a miss.  The Falcons passed on Clay Matthews.  The big reason they did, though, is because of scheme fit.  T.D. and Smith did not see Matthews fitting into a 4-3, and he wasn't drafted to do so either.  In Round 2, the Falcons got William Moore, one of the best picks in that round that contributed as a starter for many years here.  I won't go through the whole draft, but when you look and see where T.D. missed, look and see how many others did.  Look and see how many GMs missed big, and continue to miss big.  Why is that? 

Let's do the math.  There are 32 teams in the NFL with 53 roster spots apiece.  That is 1696 roster spots.  Each year there are over 250 players drafted plus UDFAs that enter the league.  Let's be conservative and say 275 new players each year.  In 6 seasons 1650 new players enter the league.  That's almost an entirely new NFL.  Except there are many players that play for over a decade, especially the good QBs, linemen, WRs, LBs, Safeties, Kickers and Punters. There are solid NFL players that play for 7 or 8 years or 9, like RBs, CBs, etc.  Let's go back to Kroy Biermann: 7 years.  Not a star, not even a guy you want starting, but good depth and a good run defender.  There are many of these players in the NFL, meaning many of the 275 new players who come into the NFL don't even make it year 1. 

If you look down the list of 3rd day players from 2008 onward you will not find many that are still around.  Most of them never really contributed much at all.  In 2008, Dimitroff drafted Vance Walker in the 7th, maybe the best 7th rounder drafted that year. 

In 2010, another swing and a miss for a first, Sean Weatherspoon.  (Although he is back now.) Yet it's another miss due to injury, not actual talent.  Our 2nd rounder went that year to Kansas City for Tony Gonzalez.  It was a brilliant move.  The pick became Javier Arenas, and if you look at the 2nd Round that year, you won't find anyone you would have taken over Tony for four years.  (Remember the average life-span of an NFL player?)  In Round 3, Dimitroff drafted Corey Peters and was heavily criticized for it.  But yet again, the AFMB was wrong, and he was right.  Peters is a good player that has also been hampered somewhat by injuries.  Who would have drafted Jimmy Graham in Round 3 after adding Tony Gonzalez?  Who would have rather had Jimmy Graham than Tony Gonzalez in 2010?  Hindsight is 20/20.

2011 was the year of Julio Jones.  I'll just say that that draft class was one of the best ever.  And Thomas Dimitroff drafted a Hall of Fame player.  Giving up an extra first and a few mid round picks were worth it once you consider the percentages of those players who actually stick in the league and make major contributions.  He also made the right move a few years ago by going up and getting Trufant at 21, one of the best players drafted all that year.  And while he was criticized for getting Alford in Round 2, none of you seem to have much of a problem with that now, do you.  Seems to me like Dimitroff is a free swinger who gets more criticism for when he strikes out for when he hits the game changing homerun.

My main qualms with Dimitroff has not been trading down to balance out the trade ups.  Logically, the more picks you have, the greater percentage of finding contributors.  2012 was also an absolutely horrendous draft class that put this team a couple steps back.  He must shoulder much of the blame for this.  He also shoulders blame for not preparing for the loss of Tony.  Atlanta could have had players like Zach Ertz or Travis Kelce.  But much of the criticism is unbalanced.  It's like knocking a free swinger for striking out 100 times and not giving him credit for hitting 40 homers.  Historically, in comparison with many other teams, Dimitroff receives some criticisms that are based squarely on ignorance of draft history and the harsh reality of the numbers game when it comes to roster spots in the NFL.

The good news is that the last two draft years, the Falcons, with Quinn working closely with Dimitroff, hve been drafting very similarly to the way Pete Carroll and the Seahawks have drafted.  Since Carrroll became the head coach of Seattle, they have been some of the best at drafting for their team in the NFL.  They draft scheme specific and are often said to rech on players, but there is a defined vision for each position.  There seems to be a more focused attempt on addressing certain issues that have plagued this team for many years, now, too, under Quinn's guidance.  It appears very much to me that T.D. is a GM that works closely to get his head coach the kind of groceries he wants to cook with.

I'm 100% certain that most people who whine and cry about the Falcons draft picks every year would have this team picking #1 overall every year.  But we don't have the luxury of putting your choices under the microscope years later, now do we?

 

Maybe he hits 40 solo home runs and strikes out 100x with runners in scoring position...can't you knock that?

TD free swung in 2011...left runners on base in 2012.

Last 3 drafts(on paper) have at least been sensible IMHO...Pioli/Quinn.

TD is nothing special, not that bad...but replaceable. Should have left

with Smitty.

 

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1 hour ago, joe_fishback said:
ig·no·rance
ˈiɡnərəns/
noun
noun: ignorance
  1. lack of knowledge or information.
     
    Let me dispel the notion that there is a lot of ignorant crying over Dimitroff's draft choices. The falcons traded  the 29th pick overall to get Jon Abraham. Abraham was effective but never had anyone on the other side that was as effective. There was no ignorance on anyone who follows the falcons that we needed an effective pass rusher opposite Abraham and we never drafted or signed one. Abraham is gone, Beasley is drafted and ,I as a fan , see the same pattern developing.  I do not want to go draft after draft saying we need a guy opposite Beasley like we did with Abraham. Imo Dimitroff
    is relying to much on the coaches when drafting defensive linemen especially rush ends. He has been here long enough
    that the team should have effective book end defensive tackles. It can't be that hard that you haven't produced that since you've been the GM of the Falcons.
con·text
ˈkäntekst/
noun
  1. the circumstances that form the setting for an event, statement, or idea, and in terms of which it can be fully understood and assessed.
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"So let me get this straight Smitty, you actually want me to go target players in the draft for you that fit in a 3-4 , 4-3 hybrid multiple ameba combination defensive scheme and if I get you a couple of fatties for the DL in Free Agency instead of pass rushers the pass rush will improve?"

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It doesn't matter who got drafted, a number of people will always say the draft is bad and the players stink and the GM is the worst and the coach is awful and the owner is a dope and the team will never win, then in the end declare themselves the biggest fans because they remember when the Falcons were so much better in 1980s when their average QB, injured RB and red helmets dominated to 3 wins a season.

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