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Why all the "Reach" Stuff?


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I think we reached some and I like every player we drafted and actually had them in a mock at some point. Reaching is not a terrible thing in our case it has more to do with roster management, trading picks and being forced to reach because of need. This also can be partly expected because we need to get some players in that Quinn feels he needs for his scheme. It still does not change the fact that we over drafted a couple of players when there was better value on the board at other positions. As much as talent evaluation the draft and roster management is about strategy. If Neal was off the board do any of you think it would have been the best idea to take Spriggs, Ifedi or Whitehair at 17? They are all good prospects fit our scheme and are physical. If we did take one of them while they are still good prospects we would have reached to do so.

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2 hours ago, Falcon918 said:

Raiders picked safety before us....dont get your point. 

Different type of safety, a playmaker like Earl Thomas, coverage skills can make plays on the ball creating turn overs and interceptions. Neal is strong in the box, and a hard hitter similar to Willy Mo. 
We tried to trade up for Joseph before the Raiders picked him which tells me TD got anxious as usual. 

 

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Some of you will be happy no matter who we picked. No one mocked keanu neal in the first here. But, still people was like omg great pick! I like Keanu Neal, but rather have had Shaq Lawson. Funny how our 2nd rnd Lb is faster than our 1st rnd SS. Oh well still a fan at the end of the day....

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2 hours ago, insight said:

Different type of safety, a playmaker like Earl Thomas, coverage skills can make plays on the ball creating turn overs and interceptions. Neal is strong in the box, and a hard hitter similar to Willy Mo. 
We tried to trade up for Joseph before the Raiders picked him which tells me TD got anxious as usual. 

 

Not sure thats true.....we were tied to Neal all thru draft because Quinn scouted and coached him. Karl Joseph is smaller than Neal. Neal is Dan Quinn type SS based on size alone. Plus  Joseph's medical is caused for concern .  All these things tell me you are off on your assumption that we tried to tradeup for Joseph. Would you agree?

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12 hours ago, ramonezy said:

The term "reach" was created by analysts/fans who didn't want to admit their mocks were wrong.

Exactly. I'm a bpa guy 24/7, so I get po'd if we ignore an obvious talent differential to draft on need; however, just because some dullard mocked a player in a spot doesn't mean a single NFL team remotely agrees.

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4 hours ago, insight said:

Different type of safety, a playmaker like Earl Thomas, coverage skills can make plays on the ball creating turn overs and interceptions. Neal is strong in the box, and a hard hitter similar to Willy Mo. 
We tried to trade up for Joseph before the Raiders picked him which tells me TD got anxious as usual. 

 

 

 

Here is the thing with that... Willy Mo was a playmaker too.  He had 16 ints and forced 11 fumbles for us in only 76 games.   So you can still be an "in the box" safety  and make plays.

NOT saying Neal will have that kind of production... because most strong safeties do not , but it is important not to pigeon hole a guy based on a  perceived notion about a position.

 

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15 hours ago, MD-FalconFan13 said:

Thank you. This "reach" ish is getting agitating. We got good players and scheme fits. Because we didn't get the name folks are crying. We won't know who was a reach until these guys hit the field. Lets reserve our judgement. 

The funny thing, some of the guys who people are crying over was never high on Mgmt radar. *cough* Darron Lee *cough*

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6 minutes ago, jidady said:

"The word around the league is Neal is regarded as a first-round-caliber player despite having a second-round grade."

-- Vaughn McClure

http://espn.go.com/blog/atlanta-falcons/post/_/id/20367/falcons-get-faster-more-physical-with-2016-draft-selections

That's why.

I'm confused. When you say "that's why" are you suggesting that what you quoted McClure saying and the article you linked support Neal being a reach? I don't read it that way at all myself.

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All you need to do is go back 3-4 years to 2011, 2012 draft grades experts and pundits were giving teams.  See how they panned out. You will realize these guys grading players/drafts don't know what they're talking about.  The only expertise they have is the ability to make a compelling case for their opinions.  For example in 2012 SI stated Peter Konz sliding down into the second round was a steal for the Falcons.  It's hard to tell until things play out in the next 2-3 years.  

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Well, if you look at Mayocks top 100, our 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks were 56, 62nd, and 60th best players available. So by that we reached especially on Neal. I tried defending the Neal pick as not being a reach but every projection seemed to have him in the 2nd and 3rd. I didn't find one that said he'd go in the first.

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41 minutes ago, Jpowers said:

I'm confused. When you say "that's why" are you suggesting that what you quoted McClure saying and the article you linked support Neal being a reach? I don't read it that way at all myself.

I am suggesting that. He had a second round grade to many teams. A handful of outliers disagreed and gave him a first round grade anyway since he's a clubber. He was *terrible* value at #17.

When teams reach for need like this, it blows up much more often than not. In rare instances, it'll work (Dwight Freeney is a great example), but that's not going to change the fact that most NFL evaluators were pleased that a guy they didn't think was a first round talent went off the board at #17. It's one more good player on the board for them. Falcons fans may hate it, but he was a reach. That's the perception around the league.

I thought Louis Riddick said it best that it made sense inside Flowery Branch more than outside. Since he's a Falcon now, I hope they're right. McClure was actually kind with his phrasing, though. Here's SI saying what a lot of people are thinking:

"

Atlanta Falcons: D

First pick: Keanu Neal, S, Florida (No. 17)

Other notable picks: Deion Jones, LB, LSU (52); Austin Hooper, TE, Stanford (81); De'Vondre Campbell, OLB, Minnesota (115)

The Falcons’s personnel braintrust of Scott Pioli and Thomas Dimitroff has had iffy results in the last few drafts, with Dimitroff as the more tenured veteran in the organization. On its face, this draft looks like another head-scratcher. The Falcons did little to address their defensive line needs, instead spending the 17th pick on Neal, who looks like a reach there. Jones is a speed linebacker with some safety-level assets—not a bad player, but perhaps another reach. Hooper should help fill a need that’s been glaring since Tony Gonzalez retired, and Campbell is another speed ’backer. In the larger view, it appears Atlanta spent draft capital on players it could have traded down to get and didn’t address its defensive line need early in a draft that has as much D-line talent as any in recent NFL history. That’s hard to swallow. —DF"

http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/04/30/nfl-draft-grades-teams-winners-losers-picks-analysis

We drafted against consensus, which is poor strategy more often than not.

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3 hours ago, krammmit said:

Well, if you look at Mayocks top 100, our 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks were 56, 62nd, and 60th best players available. So by that we reached especially on Neal. I tried defending the Neal pick as not being a reach but every projection seemed to have him in the 2nd and 3rd. I didn't find one that said he'd go in the first.

I'm going to use an example that still irks me to support this. This site used to run a $200,000 contest for picking every player selected in the first round. It wasn't in order, of course. You simply had to come up with the 32 names. The reason why these are functional impossibilities is that some team always does something crazy that nobody could predict.

That year, my wife and I both submitted an entry. We discussed it in detail, and she disagreed with me on two picks. At pick #25, there were still four people alive in the contest. My wife was one of them. Then, the Bills reached for need by drafting John McCargo. He was the third guy on a line that included Manny Lawson and Mario Williams, meaning he had elevated performance due to lack of defensive focus. Nobody thought he was worthy of a first round pick save for one team. That's all it takes. If you read McCargo's wiki page, it even mentions what a horrible reach that pick was.

Buffalo's madness didn't turn out to cost us $200,000 since the Giants ended the round picking Prince Mathias sooner than anybody expected, but it's the one that was indefensible at the time and in hindsight. Kiwanuka was also a reach, but he was well worth a first round pick in hindsight.

Neal had enough ardent supporters that he was going to go in the first round, so it's nothing as bad as McCargo. He's probably closer to Prince Mathias. As Falcons fans, we're now hoping that our front office is smarter than most on this player evaluation.

PS: The site stopped running this game the following year, presumably because a couple of us got a lot closer to winning than they ever expected.

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1 hour ago, jidady said:

I am suggesting that. He had a second round grade to many teams. A handful of outliers disagreed and gave him a first round grade anyway since he's a clubber. He was *terrible* value at #17.

When teams reach for need like this, it blows up much more often than not. In rare instances, it'll work (Dwight Freeney is a great example), but that's not going to change the fact that most NFL evaluators were pleased that a guy they didn't think was a first round talent went off the board at #17. It's one more good player on the board for them. Falcons fans may hate it, but he was a reach. That's the perception around the league.

I thought Louis Riddick said it best that it made sense inside Flowery Branch more than outside. Since he's a Falcon now, I hope they're right. McClure was actually kind with his phrasing, though. Here's SI saying what a lot of people are thinking:

 

Okay I got ya now. It was the quote and the article you originally used that threw me off. They both seemed pretty supportive of the move in my opinion.

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8 hours ago, insight said:

Different type of safety, a playmaker like Earl Thomas, coverage skills can make plays on the ball creating turn overs and interceptions. Neal is strong in the box, and a hard hitter similar to Willy Mo. 
We tried to trade up for Joseph before the Raiders picked him which tells me TD got anxious as usual. 

 

This has not been positively established. 

It is possible that TD thought the Raiders were going to take Neal. I admit, I wasn't crazy about the idea of trading up, but it doesn't mean Neal wasn't the target all along. 

In hindsight, it would have been a poor move, because the Raiders obviously liked their guy better than Neal, but nobody knew that at the time. 

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