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ket222

Why do we always ignore the Draft Experts? Reliance on Metrics vs Talent?

45 posts in this topic

you made an excellent point we reach all the time in the draft we ignore not just the draft experts we ignore good commonsense although I must admit neal really is a player I really would like to have Keven Dodd or Shaq Lawson would have been no brainer picks and both were available when we picked   

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Had we listened to the experts, we could have had Richard Sherman in the first, second, third, fourth,or fifth round. And we could have had Tom Brady in the first, second, third, fourth, or fifth round. Oops. They missed them, just like everybody else did.

Moral to the story: STFU. It's all luck, there are no sure things. The best you can do is to try to need less of it.

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There's a huge difference in evaluating talent and building a roster. That's all we need to know.

It's not because Maycock, McShay, Kiper, PFF et al aren't doing their homework because they do. They work on this stuff all year long. Also, they're round projections are based on where they think guys WILL be selected, not where they SHOULD be selected and there are many, many factors involved with that type of prognostification  

Lastly, anyone suggesting that Mike Mayock couldn't work for an NFL front office is a lunatic. As a GM immediately? Maybe not. But he could definitely work for one. 

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thank you, I need the pep talk after some of these comments, geez ....obviously people take things very personally here--a very black and white / the other guy is an idiot point of view, sigh

good points by both sides, I think.  If anyone's being honest though, you have to admit ATL has been pretty awful drafting through the years with a lot of "where did that decision come from?" moments -- and our record shows it.  Now if we can just get Ryan to lower his pay like brady did, so we can bring more FAs in and win a super bowl, ha!

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4 minutes ago, ket222 said:

thank you, I need the pep talk after some of these comments, geez ....obviously people take things very personally here--a very black and white / the other guy is an idiot point of view, sigh

good points by both sides, I think.  If anyone's being honest though, you have to admit ATL has been pretty awful drafting through the years with a lot of "where did that decision come from?" moments -- and our record shows it.  Now if we can just get Ryan to lower his pay like brady did, so we can bring more FAs in and win a super bowl, ha!

 

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man I couldn`t said that better myself you are a fan who like myself is not in denial about the stupid decisions this team make can`t for the life of me see why the others can`t see this the proof is right in front of you these players who we reach on never ever pan out 

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24 minutes ago, ket222 said:

thank you, I need the pep talk after some of these comments, geez ....obviously people take things very personally here--a very black and white / the other guy is an idiot point of view, sigh

good points by both sides, I think.  If anyone's being honest though, you have to admit ATL has been pretty awful drafting through the years with a lot of "where did that decision come from?" moments -- and our record shows it.  Now if we can just get Ryan to lower his pay like brady did, so we can bring more FAs in and win a super bowl, ha!

The other guy is an idiot. Every idiot knows it. Only an idiot would think otherwise.

You do know that, right?

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3 hours ago, ket222 said:

that's why it might be interesting for someone who is more football knowledgeable than I am to compare on of the better 'experts' picks over the years with our GMs.  It seems like we've had a very poor draft record in fact, almost depressingly so except for some of the first rounders  I would think at the least that the experts talk a lot to actual football people on teams that do private workouts (they claim to)

another way of looking at it--do some of the best drafting teams generally go with the experts or find obscure gems from montana and small schools like we tend to do (don't mention the patriots bc brady skews everything)?

 

You are misunderstanding who the experts are. 

Clue: Very few true experts work for the media; NFL teams pay much better for real experts. Real experts are selling their opinions to NFL teams, not trying to generate page clicks to make money off advertising. 

Additionally, most of the truly knowledgeable fans here (which is not as many as you'd think, but that's a different issue...) know the team/scheme/principles/tendencies of our team better than the national guys do. 

Der, teh Falcons need pass rush -- they'll pick Lawson. 

It's actually funny that many so-called experts (shout out to Mel) picked guys that went to Buffalo's system, which is hardly similar to our own. 

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50 minutes ago, thewatcher said:

 

Good point.  I'm finally getting it... so, it seems like people are saying that our selections will ensure we don't get killed by TE's catching balls in the middle of the field.  agreed? 

do you think our pass rush will be much better with these new guys, plus Beasley with another year of experience and the new FA we brought in (I forget his name)?  any way we move from a mid tier defense to a top ten?

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We haven't won a Super Bowl but we're not the Browns either. 

Research the success rate of draft picks by round, because I think you are letting your expectations of what you think should be successful affect your assessment. What I mean is - by the numbers - most players drafted outside the first 2-3 rounds fail for everyone. 1/3 of the first rounders fail - for everyone.  Yet every fan expects their first rounder to start and be a pro bowler eventually.

http://datascopeanalytics.com/blog/the-chance-of-a-bust-in-the-nfl-draft/

So while we don't get 5 pro bowlers in a draft, it seems we must have done poorly, but neither does anyone else.  We just don't remember the 200 fails each year when we think of the 4 pro bowlers that  appear from those late rounds for some teams.

Peter Konz was a first round grade, consensus expert best center in the draft. We thought we had a steal in the 2d. Guy played poorly at guard and worse at center and is out of the league now. It hurt not to have a center, but our fail rate is probably no different than other teams. 

JeffAtl, Osiruz and No.11 like this

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this entire thread is entertainingly bad.

 

 

Hageman is metric and not talent??

 

Ask  Cam Newton if Hageman is just  a "metric"  He is a 6'6 300+ pound guy who can move... he just needs to turn on the switch more than he does... he has shown the ability too much for a guard to handle him 1 on 1 if he gets pissed.

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3 hours ago, FalconsInstitutionalSize said:

if they're such experts why aren't teams throwing money at them to work for them with all their expertise and magicianaries?

Most of them are retired successful coaches or GMs.  Working in the media is much less pressure, less workload and the pay is really good.

 

 

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