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ket222

Why do we always ignore the Draft Experts? Reliance on Metrics vs Talent?

45 posts in this topic

It seems like every year we are frustrated that our GM "reaches" for talent that could be gotten in later rounds, ignoring what experts like Mayock (or whomever) say are the best picks.  This usually ends in mediocrity or outright disaster! This year, EVERYONE thought we were going with darron lee or shaq Lawson if we were lucky enough to have a chance at him

  • with picks like Collins and our first rounder this year, we only seem to emphasize SPEED and 'potential' based on metrics (Hageman) rather than actual playing ability.  Isn't this the root of all our problems?
  • we often get players from obscure colleges or 'out of nowhere' guys and the experts are usually like 'why did the falcons go there when they could have had player X?"
  • How much better would we have been over the last 8 years if we'd gone ONLY with what an expert like Maycock (or whomever is the best) chose for us prior to the draft vs our GM?  Could anyone put together a chart showing a comparison?  I think it would be obvious going with the experts would be much better
  • Who is the best drafter on these boards over the last few years?  Can you show how much better your picks were than our GM?
  • by the way, how do I post a long post without clogging the words together?  it doesn't seem to work for me simply to skip lines and I'd rather not do bullet points

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Because they are not draft experts, they are draft 'experts'. Being in the media does not make you clever.

People in the media:

  • Don't do private workouts
  • Don't do private interviews
  • Do no have intimate medical history of players
  • Do not know how a coach runs their scheme
  • Do not know the players as well as the coaches
  • Will not lose their job if their mock is wrong
  • + more

The media is all about creating content for people to view, why do we think we see so many different mock drafts from so many 'experts' and don't see any of a teams?

Andrew Billings was projected as a top 50 pick by the media yet EVERY team thinks differently, I know who I am more inclined to agree with.

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Because draft "experts" don't know anything. Most times they are wrong. We have drafted PLENTY of guys that draft experts raved about. We got players that fit what we do which means a lot. Doesn't matter where you get them just get them. When Lee doesn't do anything post another post how Falcons got their guy then too. 

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16 minutes ago, quotemokc said:

Because they are not draft experts, they are draft 'experts'. Being in the media does not make you clever.

People in the media:

  • Don't do private workouts
  • Don't do private interviews
  • Do no have intimate medical history of players
  • Do not know how a coach runs their scheme
  • Do not know the players as well as the coaches
  • Will not lose their job if their mock is wrong
  • + more

The media is all about creating content for people to view, why do we think we see so many different mock drafts from so many 'experts' and don't see any of a teams?

Andrew Billings was projected as a top 50 pick by the media yet EVERY team thinks differently, I know who I am more inclined to agree with.

This x1000. 

How often I see some expert say Falcons need pass rush so mock the best available pass rusher to us without having any in depth knowledge of the scheme we run. Players like Lawson, Ogbah, Dodd...  they don't really fit what we need and the scheme we run. 

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that's why it might be interesting for someone who is more football knowledgeable than I am to compare on of the better 'experts' picks over the years with our GMs.  It seems like we've had a very poor draft record in fact, almost depressingly so except for some of the first rounders  I would think at the least that the experts talk a lot to actual football people on teams that do private workouts (they claim to)

another way of looking at it--do some of the best drafting teams generally go with the experts or find obscure gems from montana and small schools like we tend to do (don't mention the patriots bc brady skews everything)?

 

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38 minutes ago, ket222 said:

It seems like every year we are frustrated that our GM "reaches" for talent that could be gotten in later rounds, ignoring what experts like Mayock (or whomever) say are the best picks.  This usually ends in mediocrity or outright disaster! This year, EVERYONE thought we were going with darron lee or shaq Lawson if we were lucky enough to have a chance at him

  • with picks like Collins and our first rounder this year, we only seem to emphasize SPEED and 'potential' based on metrics (Hageman) rather than actual playing ability.  Isn't this the root of all our problems?
  • we often get players from obscure colleges or 'out of nowhere' guys and the experts are usually like 'why did the falcons go there when they could have had player X?"
  • How much better would we have been over the last 8 years if we'd gone ONLY with what an expert like Maycock (or whomever is the best) chose for us prior to the draft vs our GM?  Could anyone put together a chart showing a comparison?  I think it would be obvious going with the experts would be much better
  • Who is the best drafter on these boards over the last few years?  Can you show how much better your picks were than our GM?
  • by the way, how do I post a long post without clogging the words together?  it doesn't seem to work for me simply to skip lines and I'd rather not do bullet points

those obscure schools like Florida, LSU and Stanford? And Mike Mayock is no expert, if he was he would have a front office job.

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6 minutes ago, Panicman27 said:

those obscure schools like Florida, LSU and Stanford? And Mike Mayock is no expert, if he was he would have a front office job.

Yeah, kinda hard this year to knock the Falcons with the "obscure school" complaint. 

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You mean like the "experts" that said Drew Brees was too small? How about the "experts" that said Blaine Gabbert was the most "nfl ready" qb in the draft? Vonn Miller is too small, Larry Fitzgerald is too slow and blah blah blah. Mayock isn't gonna get canned for saying Jake Locker is a franchise qb or acting like Sam Bradford is the next Tom Brady. The talking heads aren't experts. The actual experts make a living by putting together nfl rosters, not by talking about it. 

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I mean as a long term pattern... I suppose the school doesn't matter so much... my point is really that we often pick players that seem like a reach or are listed by the 'experts' as having significant flaws (but perhaps are super fast to hide their lack of actual football talent displayed in college)

Shouldn't the emphasis be on actual football playing ability shown in college rather than 'metrics'? 

I need some of the usual posters here who criticize our GM each year to come to my rescue with better examples than I can provide.  We seem to have a really, really bad drafting record over the years after round one and I'm trying to say, "maybe it's better to go with conventional wisdom (the 'experts' who at least talk to a lot of teams even if they aren't GMs) and we'd be more successful."  maycock for instance listed s'ua cravens higher than the guy we went with in the second round.

 

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If many of these so-called experts were HC's they'd be out of a job by now.  They are merely talking heads with "some knowledge" but not with the everyday workings of on field knowledge, such as scouts, GMs, HC's, etc.  

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6 minutes ago, ket222 said:

that's why it might be interesting for someone who is more football knowledgeable than I am to compare on of the better 'experts' picks over the years with our GMs.  It seems like we've had a very poor draft record in fact, almost depressingly so except for some of the first rounders  I would think at the least that the experts talk a lot to actual football people on teams that do private workouts (they claim to)

another way of looking at it--do some of the best drafting teams generally go with the experts or find obscure gems from montana and small schools like we tend to do (don't mention the patriots bc brady skews everything)?

 

There are so many variables in forecasting picks, you can't expect the talking head experts to know each teams needs like a coaching staff and front office should. Nobody knows how a player is going to react to a huge contract in a new town and suddenly surrounded by veterans of the NFL. For some guys just getting that contract and getting drafted is thier pinnacle others have the opportunity ,determination a long with some luck to make it a career. NFL history is full of highly touted college players that couldn't compete in the NFL, the difference in NFL Europe,XFL and USFL are prime examples, NFL pro football isn't for everybody. Not to mention  most players need to go to the right place ie if Favre stays with the Falcons he possibly becomes Johnny Manziel before Johnny did. Teams and the pundits miss on guys every year Tony Mandarich for example was supposed to dominate. Brady isn't Brady in Cleveland. It's why coaches covet the GM responsibilities too, they want thier guys and think they are the best way to choose them.  I like most of Gil Brandt rankings yea he is old school but he knows his chit and pioneered a lot of the new forms of scouting in the 70's. One of the first guys to get great talent from smaller schools and project them in the NFL. 

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1 hour ago, ket222 said:

It seems like every year we are frustrated that our GM "reaches" for talent that could be gotten in later rounds, ignoring what experts like Mayock (or whomever) say are the best picks.  This usually ends in mediocrity or outright disaster! This year, EVERYONE thought we were going with darron lee or shaq Lawson if we were lucky enough to have a chance at him

  • with picks like Collins and our first rounder this year, we only seem to emphasize SPEED and 'potential' based on metrics (Hageman) rather than actual playing ability.  Isn't this the root of all our problems?
  • we often get players from obscure colleges or 'out of nowhere' guys and the experts are usually like 'why did the falcons go there when they could have had player X?"
  • How much better would we have been over the last 8 years if we'd gone ONLY with what an expert like Maycock (or whomever is the best) chose for us prior to the draft vs our GM?  Could anyone put together a chart showing a comparison?  I think it would be obvious going with the experts would be much better
  • Who is the best drafter on these boards over the last few years?  Can you show how much better your picks were than our GM?
  • by the way, how do I post a long post without clogging the words together?  it doesn't seem to work for me simply to skip lines and I'd rather not do bullet points

You should take a look back at just how many misses all the "experts" have too. Even the guys we all like,  like Mayock, have plenty of misses. 

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Bunch of words 

Lot of wasted reading.

Another embarrassing poke at our staff because they didn't pick your fantasy football magazine faves.

My guess is you're either a stinking troll or you're 12 years old.  I refuse to believe you're that stoooooopid.

 

 

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thank you Putnam for your insights--a good point about favre here in Atlanta, maybe it's a matter of not developing talent here which is on the coaches more than the GM

i'm not sure why hashbrown and the other person above have to be such pricks  I was just asking a question.  I don't come with an agenda.  I admit to not knowing a lot about football--I have a law degree from a top five school, does not knowing about draft strategies make me an idiot?

  I just see that our draft picks over the years have often been very mediocre or worse , (also our FAs) and I'm just asking why.  Is it really so stupid to ask whether concentrating on quality of play in college over metrics like speed is a bad idea, especially when we pick lame players like Collins who had huge red flags despite being fast? 

Last, I thought it would be interesting for someone to compare one of the better 'experts' picks from previous years to our GMs.  If our GM's picks were a lot BETTER than the experts, that would tend to prove your point (it doesn't seem to be the case)  that seems a fair enough question and would show whether indeed the experts are as useless as you say.

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1 hour ago, ket222 said:

 

Billings goes mid 1st - still available inthe 4th

Justin simions - 7th round -taken in 3rd

Daryl worrley - 6th round - taken in the 3rd

Jihad ward - 5th to UDFA - taken in the 2nd. 

Karl joseph - 3/4 round - taken in the 1st

The draft GODs are doing horrible this year. I'm glad they aren't listening. Media scouts are just that.

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1 hour ago, ket222 said:

that's why it might be interesting for someone who is more football knowledgeable than I am to compare on of the better 'experts' picks over the years with our GMs.  It seems like we've had a very poor draft record in fact, almost depressingly so except for some of the first rounders  I would think at the least that the experts talk a lot to actual football people on teams that do private workouts (they claim to)

another way of looking at it--do some of the best drafting teams generally go with the experts or find obscure gems from montana and small schools like we tend to do (don't mention the patriots bc brady skews everything)?

 

Deadspin does this every year.

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the draft 'experts' don't do nearly as much work on each player or on each NFL teams specific needs, they are pretty much arm chair GM's like a lot of people on these boards, who happen to get paid for this, actually watch a few games, because they get paid for it, and are, and can afford to be, wrong, more often than a weather man. 

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1 hour ago, ket222 said:

It seems like every year we are frustrated that our GM "reaches" for talent that could be gotten in later rounds, ignoring what experts like Mayock (or whomever) say are the best picks.  This usually ends in mediocrity or outright disaster! This year, EVERYONE thought we were going with darron lee or shaq Lawson if we were lucky enough to have a chance at him

  • with picks like Collins and our first rounder this year, we only seem to emphasize SPEED and 'potential' based on metrics (Hageman) rather than actual playing ability.  Isn't this the root of all our problems?
  • we often get players from obscure colleges or 'out of nowhere' guys and the experts are usually like 'why did the falcons go there when they could have had player X?"
  • How much better would we have been over the last 8 years if we'd gone ONLY with what an expert like Maycock (or whomever is the best) chose for us prior to the draft vs our GM?  Could anyone put together a chart showing a comparison?  I think it would be obvious going with the experts would be much better
  • Who is the best drafter on these boards over the last few years?  Can you show how much better your picks were than our GM?
  • by the way, how do I post a long post without clogging the words together?  it doesn't seem to work for me simply to skip lines and I'd rather not do bullet points

Funny you mention that. On Mayocks rankings of CB's last year. Jalen Collins was his 4th ranked corner and I believe the other 4 out of his top 5 were off the board when we selected Collins. So not a reach as some idiots on here suggest.

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1 hour ago, quotemokc said:

Because they are not draft experts, they are draft 'experts'. Being in the media does not make you clever.

People in the media:

  • Don't do private workouts
  • Don't do private interviews
  • Do no have intimate medical history of players
  • Do not know how a coach runs their scheme
  • Do not know the players as well as the coaches
  • Will not lose their job if their mock is wrong
  • + more

The media is all about creating content for people to view, why do we think we see so many different mock drafts from so many 'experts' and don't see any of a teams?

Andrew Billings was projected as a top 50 pick by the media yet EVERY team thinks differently, I know who I am more inclined to agree with.

God d@mn! This x infinity. I see that no one has retorted this response. Any takers?

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well, in the topic titled, Keanu and Deion comparison to others, plan , the poster did a good job of comparing the pundits choices to the falcons--and I must admit I feel better about our GM's selections!

one poster above pointed out that I might have been wrong about Collins, but I seem to remember people on this board at the time saying he was just not a very good football player (just very good stats)

I still think it would be interesting to go back over the last few years for comparisons, but I'll just go to deadspin like the poster noted above.  thanks for the perspective guys

my only point, is that if you say "experts opinion be ****ed, our GM knows the true team needs," we just don't seem to have been very effective at those decisions over the last few years...

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