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3 prospects who could outperform their draft position


JRob215
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Through the process of scouting for this year's draft, I have found a few prospects that I think have a significant opportunity to outperform their draft stock. These are also players I believe would fit well in the Falcons offensive/defensive schemes. I have provided a game tape for each one, so everyone has the visual to go with the analysis.

OLB Jatavis Brown (Akron)

5’11 227 lbs.

Projected Round: 4

Stats:

2014 – 99 Tackles, 14.5 TFL, 4.0 Sacks, 3 FF

2015 – 116 Tackles, 20.0 TFL, 12.0 Sacks, 4 FF

Pro Day:

40 Yrd Dash: 4.44

20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.31

3-Cone: 7.19

Vertical: 35 ½”

Broad: 10’05”

Bench: 33 Reps

Analysis: Brown’s most impressive trait is his speed (4.44) and he doesn’t waste it. Able to combine that speed with his impressive instincts to make plays all over the field. Once he locks onto his target he is reminiscent of a heat-seeking missile, showing off his elite closing burst. Also able to use this ability to be an asset in coverage, as shown by his outstanding PFF coverage grade (4th highest among 2015 LB prospects). Browns has also been highly productive as a pass rusher, accumulating 16 sacks over the last two seasons. Burns opposing tackles with speed and can squeeze between guards and centers to get to the quarterback.

Summary: His size is the primary reason he is considered a mid-round selection, but he can cover (played 95 snaps in the slot in 2015), rush the passer, and is excellent in play recognition and pursuit. He could be a convert to SS in the Falcons’ 4-3 Under scheme.

NFL

CBS/Draft Scout

PFF

 

 

OG Isaac Seumalo (Oregon State)

6’4 303 lbs.

Projected Round: 4

Combine:

40 Yrd Dash: 5.19

20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.52

3-Cone: 7.40

Vertical: 26”

Broad: 08’09”

Bench: 19 Reps (Pro Day)

Analysis: When evaluating lineman for the zone-blocking scheme, the ability to move in space and get to the second level are two of the most important traits. After finishing among the leaders in the short shuttle and 3-cone drill at the combine, Seumalo was able to verify those traits, which are evident on film. Rarely loses one on one battles on the interior. Able to consistently get a good push in the run game. Plays with very good balance and technique and is able to move smoothly to the second level of the defense. Has started at four positions on the offensive line, though he projects best at guard or center. Comes from a football family, as his brother was a former captain at Oregon State (now a grad assistant) and his father is the defensive line coach at Arizona State.

Summary: He suffered a foot injury that caused him to redshirt during the 2014 season, but assuming there are no lingering issues, he projects very well to a zone scheme. He would be an very good option for the Falcons in the 4th round, if we choose to wait on selecting a guard.

NFL

CBS/Draft Scout

 

 

SS Kavon Frazier (Central Michigan)

6’0 217 lbs.

Projected Round: 6

Stats:

2015 – 108 Tackles, 4.5 TFL, 4 PBU, 1 INT, 2 FF

Pro Day (according to Draft Scout):

40 Yrd Dash: 4.58

20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.40

3-Cone: 6.88

Vertical: 40 ½”

Broad: 10’08”

Bench: 18 Reps (Combine)

Analysis: Frazier is the definition of an old-school in-the-box safety. In the run game, he is as good as any SS prospect in this class. Big time tempo setter. Has excellent awareness and instincts in the run game, and uses his speed to attack and deliver punishing blows to opposing ball carriers. Is the physical/athletic prototype of an NFL safety. Will be an asset on special teams early on, as he recorded 14 tackles on punt and kick coverage over the last two seasons.

Summary: Not unlike many strong safeties in this class, Frazier has limitations in pass coverage, but he is dominant in the run game. In the right role, he could over-perform his draft stock as an imposing in the box tone-setter. He should be able to contribute to special teams immediately and has a real chance to be a starter down the line.

NFL

CBS/Draft Scout

 

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1 hour ago, direwolf said:

Don't want to put too much stock in numbers, but a 300 pound guard who only has 19 bench reps is a bit concerning. We tried that with Konz and it didn't work out so well.

Cody Whitehair, unanimously considered the number one guard in the draft, only did 16 reps at the combine. It could be a slight concern, but Seumalo's strength is his athletic ability and range of motion. There is usually a trade-off with strength and athleticism to some extent. In Konz's case, he had neither strength nor foot quickness. He turned out to be a product of the Wisconsin machine.

1 hour ago, AgapeElement said:

Would you want Brown to be more of an in the box Safety type?  I don't see him possibly being anything else.

In our case, I think so. He excels at attacking the line of scrimmage and his high grade in pass coverage shows that he can do that effectively as well.

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Konz had a  shoulder injury a couple of months prior to the draft which impacted his combine bench. I can tell you bench press strength is based on staying on it for several weeks straight, if you take any time off it sets you back

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there was a good thread on here a while back about the recent history of OLman who bench under 20 reps. It is pretty alarming when considering a guy with low bench reps. Having one of them become good/great is definitely the exception not the rule.

These historical figures are a big reason as good as his tape is, I wouldn't take Whitehair in round 1. It is just a risk, and IMO historical statistics matter. They are no guarantee, but for sure scouts, etc. are looking at these analytics. That said, if CW is there at 50 it would be hard to pass up on him unless another round 1 talent falls. (Like Nkemdiche maybe)

With lineman quite a bit of stock is put into bench reps. They use it as a sign of endurance or something, I forget, but it is a measuring stick, similar to 40s for the small guys.

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2 hours ago, direwolf said:

Don't want to put too much stock in numbers, but a 300 pound guard who only has 19 bench reps is a bit concerning. We tried that with Konz and it didn't work out so well.

 

I think Konz also had sick squat/leg press numbers. That said, he sucked. I thought he was a great pick on draft day, but it just didn't work out.

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4 hours ago, JRob215 said:

In our case, I think so. He excels at attacking the line of scrimmage and his high grade in pass coverage shows that he can do that effectively as well.

Sounds good to me then.  I have other prospects I like more than him for that role, but I do like a guy who can blitz that well, he showed good power on that blitz up the middle.  But also got knocked around by backs in the open field, that's what made me think box safety type.

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6 hours ago, direwolf said:

Don't want to put too much stock in numbers, but a 300 pound guard who only has 19 bench reps is a bit concerning. We tried that with Konz and it didn't work out so well.

The bench press drill measures endurance more than strength. It's why guys with shorter arms do better.  

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Love Jatavis Brown. Great pick.

also, if Sterling Shepard gets drafted any time after the top 15, he's going to out-perform that. He's really, REALLY good. Somewhere between Tyler Lockett and OBJ.

Rashard Higgins is another guy I think will out-perform his draft position. To me he's a top 50 player in this class and I doubt he gets drafted in even the top 75.

Alex McCalister, given he gets an opportunity, will be the Aaron Lynch of this year's draft class. Late pick, year 1 potential starter, potential long term all-pro sack artist.

Assuming Higbee doesn't get drafted in the first 2 rounds he'll out-perform that.

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6 hours ago, Bobby.Digital said:

The bench press drill measures endurance more than strength. It's why guys with shorter arms do better.  

uh...it's an upper body strength drill. Guys with shorter arms do better because they don't have to lift the weight as far as guys with longer arms.

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11 hours ago, B_Lo_Touchdowns said:

These dudes wont even play 3 years in the league

That's possible for any guy in this draft. I've provided detailed analysis for three guys that I've spent a significant amount of time studying, and you come in with a simple "these guys suck." At least give me some reasons why you feel this way, and I'd be happy to debate with you. Otherwise, you just sound extremely uninformed.

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12 hours ago, Kayoh said:

Love Jatavis Brown. Great pick.

also, if Sterling Shepard gets drafted any time after the top 15, he's going to out-perform that. He's really, REALLY good. Somewhere between Tyler Lockett and OBJ.

Rashard Higgins is another guy I think will out-perform his draft position. To me he's a top 50 player in this class and I doubt he gets drafted in even the top 75.

Alex McCalister, given he gets an opportunity, will be the Aaron Lynch of this year's draft class. Late pick, year 1 potential starter, potential long term all-pro sack artist.

Assuming Higbee doesn't get drafted in the first 2 rounds he'll out-perform that.

Really like McCalister as well. If he can stay out of trouble (big if), he could be a dynamic pass rush specialist.

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