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The official South Carolina/Nevada primary thread...


Leon Troutsky
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Trump has the strongest support among less educated people (high school, some college), with about 41% for those with high school or less and 37% among those with some college.  Cruz also does best with this group - 31% and 27% respectively.  

Rubio does best with college grads and postgraduates - 25% and 32% respectively.  Only about 15-19% support among the less educated.  

A recurring theme seems to be Cruz's strong support among the far right (39% of "very conservative" voters support him), and his support drops precipitously among less conservative people (20% among "somewhat conservatives" and 9% among moderates").  Trump does best among somewhat conservatives and moderates - 34% and 31% - but he's still pulling 27% among very conservative voters.  That's the coalition that's keeping him on top - winning among moderates and leaning conservatives coupled with the less educated working class whites.  

Also interestingly, even though Cruz would seem to be a lock for the evangelicals (who were over 70% of the SC electorate), Trump actually tied Cruz at 30% among evangelicals and he won outright among non-evangelicals (29%).  Cruz only pulled 15% of the non-evangelicals.  Rubio got 23-25% of evangelicals and non-evangelicals.  

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One other update.  Among people who cited immigration and the economy as most important issue, Trump won big (47% and 35% respectively).  Among those who cited terrorism and government spending, Cruz won narrowly (30% and 28%).  

One of the most interesting things is that among people who said the most important candidate quality was electability, Rubio won big (49%).  Among those who said "shares my vallues", Cruz came out the winner (38%) with Rubio coming a distance second (26%).  Among those who said the top quality was "tells it like it is", Trump crushed it with 77%.  Finally, Trump also won among those who said "can bring change" (42%), with Cruz a distance second (22%).

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

Ah, yeah. Word out of the Kasich and Carson camp is that they're sticking around.  Why, I have no idea.  But if Kasich drops, that could put Rubio into the #1 spot.  If they really want to stop Trump, Kasich needs to go.

I get the feeling Jeb dropping out will help Kasich more than Rubio. I don't know why Carson is sticking around though.

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Just now, Psychic Gibbon said:

I get the feeling Jeb dropping out will help Kasich more than Rubio. I don't know why Carson is sticking around though.

Probably, but it's not going to help enough to put Kasich in second place above Rubio, let alone Cruz.  He doesn't have a path to victory, but staying in the race risks him keeping Rubio from overtaking Cruz and maybe Trump.

 

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2 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

Probably, but it's not going to help enough to put Kasich in second place above Rubio, let alone Cruz.  He doesn't have a path to victory, but staying in the race risks him keeping Rubio from overtaking Cruz and maybe Trump.

 

Most likely, but Rubio has displayed incredible weakness as recently as that New Hampshire debate and Trump probably has him in his crosshairs now since his punching bag just dropped out. Kasich is probably hoping another one of those stumbles happens so he can move in.

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6 minutes ago, Psychic Gibbon said:

Most likely, but Rubio has displayed incredible weakness as recently as that New Hampshire debate and Trump probably has him in his crosshairs now since his punching bag just dropped out. Kasich is probably hoping another one of those stumbles happens so he can move in.

If there was a month left I would agree with that.  But Super Tuesday is just two weeks away.  Not enough time to consolidate around Kasich.  He COULD win, but he's very unlikely to win at this point.

Rubio is a crap shoot, no doubt.  It's a gamble for Republicans, but Kasich peeling off a consistent 10% guarantees that Rubio doesn't win.  It almost guarantees a Trump victory.

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6 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

If there was a month left I would agree with that.  But Super Tuesday is just two weeks away.  Not enough time to consolidate around Kasich.  He COULD win, but he's very unlikely to win at this point.

Rubio is a crap shoot, no doubt.  It's a gamble for Republicans, but Kasich peeling off a consistent 10% guarantees that Rubio doesn't win.  It almost guarantees a Trump victory.

I seriously doubt Rubio is getting the nomination anyway. Even if he gets all Jeb!s and Kasich's supporters he'll still be behind Trump. I have also not gotten the impression that Carson supporters view him as their second choice.

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6 minutes ago, Psychic Gibbon said:

I seriously doubt Rubio is getting the nomination anyway. Even if he gets all Jeb!s and Kasich's supporters he'll still be behind Trump. I have also not gotten the impression that Carson supporters view him as their second choice.

At least in South Carolina, if Rubio has all of the Bush/Kasich voters, he beats Trump tonight.

 

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1 minute ago, Leon Troutsky said:

At least in South Carolina, if Rubio has all of the Bush/Kasich voters, he beats Trump tonight.

 

It doesn't look that rosy nationally though. If he's going to do this he's going to have to hope Kasich drops out and that he gets all of his and Jeb!s support, that Carson drops out and his supporters don't go to Cruz or Trump, and that he can withstand Trump's coming assault while chipping away at Cruz's support. Those are too many ifs.

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If Kasich did not drop out after this showing, I am wonder what he is waiting for. He must be waiting for Ohio, which is winner take all. I also wonder how the dynamic is going to be with Cruz, Trump, and Rubio. Trump and Cruz both have to know that their bitter rivalry is only going to help Rubio get the nom. They are going to need to figure out a way to knock him down a peg or two. 

 

On the Dem side.

Quote

Sen. Bernie Sanders drastically ramped up his campaign's spending in January as the Democratic primary contest engaged, racing through nearly $35 million as he worked to try to match the infrastructure that former secretary of state Hillary Clinton built over the course of last year.

As a result, even though he outraised her for the first time, Clinton expanded her cash lead by the end of the month. After spending $21.2 million in January, Clinton ended the month with nearly $33 million in the bank. Sanders had almost $14.7 million.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/20/bernie-sanders-is-burning-through-cash/?postshare=7251456027819418&tid=ss_tw

 

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