My First Ever Mock Off Season

[#84]

Constructive Criticism wanted I went by Sportrac and gut for numbers, so please feel free to tell me I'm wrong and offer alternative solutions.

Baseline Salary-Cap: 28,580,995 Provided by Sportrac

 

Other Cuts:

Devin Hester 3,000,000: Lost some of his speed/older/injuries/Not likely to be an asset going forward

Matt Bryant 2,516,666: Too expensive for a kicker especially on a team that is likely another year away from competing/a great falcon but it may be time to move on

Tyson Jackson 1,550,000: Too many younger and better run stuffers on our D-line this year to keep him around/Solid player just not worth the cap hit

Eric Weems 935,000: To me the saddest cut of the off-season he is maybe my second favorite falcon behind Roddy but he is at best our 7^th best receiving option behind all our WRs/Tamme/Both our RBs, he is not a great returner anymore/Stupar has kind of become our STs Ace and we have a lot of youth to help out in kick coverage as well.  I’m just not really sure what value he adds going forward.  This one was hard for me to write to be perfectly honest with you

Restructure:

Roddy White-Only save 2.3 mil via a cut and Roddy may take at least a 1.5 mil pay cut to stay where he loves.  I believe that makes more sense especially after watching Steve Smith and Larry Fitzgerald flourish as older receivers who have switched to working more in the slot.

Cap Space 36,395,161+1.5mil

37,895,161

 

Draft Pick Salaries Projected from last season:-Will be slightly modified by comp picks but should be a fairly accurate guess for Cap Hit-

 

Numbers reflected are in base 1 mil of cap cost if you need that clarified and are used to reflect sportrac’s currently listed cap commitments for draft picks 
Pick 17: Arik Armstead: 1.7/2.2/2.6/3.1 Roughly

Pick 49: Mitch Morse: .8/1.06/1.2/1.4

Pick 81: John Miller .6/.72/.81/.91

Pick 113: .5/.65/.74/.83

Pick 209: .05/.52/.61/RFA Tender

Roughly 3.65 Million in Rookie Contracts

Leaving 34,245,161 Available to Utilize for Free Agency

 

Notable Needs:

1.       MLB

2.       C

3.       Second Pass Rusher

4.       SS

5.       OLB

6.       2^nd WR

7.    K      

8.     KR/PR

9.       2^nd TE

10.   3^rd/4^th CB to pair with our young guys

11.   Back-up QB

 

Our Teams Notable Free Agents:

UFA- (vet minimum salaries pulled from sportrac)

OG Chris Chester: 1 yr 2.5 mil I believe he will take a small pay cut this year as he knows he is on  the wrong side of 30 and his value has dropped significantly from being a part of a questionable interior line last season.  Though he played okay he certainly did not wow anyone enough to get a big pay day.  Also staying in the ZBS will probably be appealing as learning new systems each year becomes more and more of a hassle as a veteran player approaches retirement.  I think he will enjoy the staying still in the off-season.

DE Adrian Clayborn: 2 yr-9.5 mil contract 5/4.5 in order to acquire more cap the next season. Clayborn proved to be a good option as a situational pass rusher and adds value as the 3^rd or 4^th guy to chase the QB.  As the Broncos proved the more rushers you have the better the whole defense becomes.

DE Kroy Biermann: Casualty of the fact that our team is improving was a hard-worker and a good falcon he may actually be missed.  Just not by the message board

OT Jake Long: Failed Experiment Injury Prone time to let him walk

OT Bryce Harris: 1 yr vet minimum salary of 540,000-Need more offensive line depth with experience in our system so he holds on for another year due to being cheaper than Long.

OLB: Phillip Wheeler: 1 yr vet minimum salary of 540,000 for his experience/depth/natural ability to flow with the play and some potential special teams value

OLB: O’Brien Schofield: 2 yr 2.9 mil  1.7/1.2 Experience in the system and ability to get after the QB as a 3^rd or 4^th option also based on last year’s salary we can expect he will play for relatively cheap.  He just is not consistent enough to demand starter money anywhere

SS: Charles Godfrey: 2 yr vet minimum salary of 600,000 for experience in what will be a very young secondary including a set of safeties that next year will be led in experience by Kehmal Ishmael if Godfrey does not return

K Shayne Graham: 1 yr salary of 1.2 mil do to his consistency after the Bryant injury will look to go younger at this position in the future but there is just too many other holes on this team to focus on Kicker this year

 

RFA-

ILB-Paul Worrilow: 2,356,000 2^nd Round Tender-Good back-up strong skills/potential on special teams, but I just don’t see anyone giving up there 2^nd rounder for Paul which benefits our team’s depth.

OLB-Nate Stupar: 1,542,000 original Round Tender-Special Teams Ace with some skills as a LBer but not spectacular enough for a team to give up a draft pick even a 7^th rounder.  Teams just don’t give up draft picks for RFAs unless it’s someone truly fantastic.

OT-Ryan Schraeder: 2,356,000 2^nd Round Tender-Not well enough known outside our team for anyone to try and grab up.  Even if they do this is a contract we would obviously match unless something crazy happens.

 

ERFA-

FS-Ricardo Allen: 1 yr minimum tender of 525,000 an absolute steal of a price for a starting caliber safety when he becomes an RFA the next year it may actually cost less to just re-sign him in season

17,626,161 in remaining Salary after draft compensation and re-signings

 

UFA Targets: -Total Contracts and Proposed Yearly Break-downs Highlighted

HOU OC Ben Jones: 4 yr 12,000,000-2.5/3/3/3.5 (Reflects a nearly doubled salary from his time with the Texans)  A player I believe can be had for relatively cheap, and a ZBS specialist who has been phenomenal at line calls over the years.  In a worst case scenario he can snap the ball which makes him an immediate upgrade to what we had.

DEN MLB Danny Trevathan: 4 yr 34,000,000- 7.5/9/9/8.5 (Contract reflects that the upper echelon of ILBers is hitting at right around 9-11 mil a year average) However He is not going to get that as good as Trevathan is we have to remember he was the second ILB behind Marshall, and I think the contract he gets this off-season will reflect that many people around the league believe his production will dip when he is pulled away from Miller,Ware, and Marhsall.  Which should benefit us in signing a top young Lber

PIT CB Brandon Boykin: 3 yr 10,000,000-3.5/3.5/3 (Reflects Saints overpaying for Bradon Browner reduced due to Boykin having always been a NB and never a starter)-This could be seen as a luxury signing but it covers up if Collins fails to improve, and also fills the void created at KR.  I believe he could become a useful piece on defense and a big contributor on special teams.  A player I believe will be a value pick-up for someone this off-season

NYG WR Reuben Randle: 3 yr-11,250,000-3.3/3.4/4.4 (reflects the contract Harry Douglas got last season/comparable perceived value IMO) Gonna Break it down a little different though over the period.  I changed that up because I am not a fan of back loading contracts the last thing we need is to be the new NO Saints and be in cap ****.  I also think Randle will be in this pay bracket as he is so overshadowed by the other receivers people will want.  He has been overlooked this off-season because guys like Malcom Floyd/Harvin/Kearse are all available and he could be a steal as a result.  A young up and coming receiver we can pair with Julio going forward. 

SD TE Ladarius Green: 2 yr. 2,800,000 mil-1.4/1.4-I really liked Green out of college and he has potential as a receiving TE.  The biggest benefits he comes with are his youth  being only 25 years old, rarely misses a game playing in 47 in 4 years as a reserve player who barely made his team as a rookie, and having a relatively low cost because he was overshadowed playing behind Antonio Gates.  He will cost next to nothing and will be similar to Adrian Clayborn last year if the experiment bombs we are not out anything and can make TE a priority next off-season.  If he pans out we have a solid young TE to work with going forward.  Had his best pro season this year having 4 TD receptions as a number 2 TE.

If you do all the math this leaves us with .6 mil dollars under the cap and would put us right on the bubble but remember we are due to alleviate almost 10 million in dead cap next year as well as having a whole list of 1 year deals, and several very cuttable contracts, so our cap situation is not as dire as it would appear

Notable Needs: Yellow-Issue Addressed/Blue-Issue could be further addressed

1.       MLB

2.       C

3.       Second Pass Rusher

4.       SS

5.       OLB

6.       2^nd WR

7.       K

8.       KR/PR

9.       2^nd TE

10.   3^rd/4^th CB to pair with our young guys

11.   Back-up QB

Draft Needs:

1.       Pass rushers

2.       SS

3.       OLB

4.       K

5.       Back-up QB

 

Draft Pick Rankings from cbssports:

Round 1-DT/DE Robert Nkemdiche/Ole Miss CBSSports number 18 overall player: Elite Pass Rusher can play inside and out and will take double teams away from Vic Beasley Jr. (maybe a stretch that this athletic freak could ever fall to us)

Alternative-DE Kevin Dodd/Clemson

Round 2-SS Jeremy Cash/Duke CBSSports number 54 overall player: For my money the best safety in this class the kid just does not make a lot of mistakes in coverage and can lay some wood when necessary. Very NFL ready.

Alternative-SS Miles Killebrew/Southern Utah

Round 3-OLB Jordan Jenkins/UGA CBSSports number 94 overall player:  A solid guy who won’t wow anyone but should be an improvement on our current core.  A guy a lot of draft nuts are saying will be a better pro than college player.

Alternative-ILB/OLB Scooby Wright III/Arizona

Round 4-OLB/DE Eric Striker/Oklahoma CBSSports number 121 Overall Player: Not sure of a position but too big a play maker to pass on at this point.  Line him up and let him loose. Just watch tape of any Oklahoma game and you will see how valuable this guy can be.

Alternative-DT Javon Hargrave/South Carolina ST

Round 7-QB Brandon Allen/Arkansas CBSSports number 237 Overall Player: It is never a bad thing to have competition and Renfree has yet to have any serious competition to this point.  Allen was a slow starter in college but if you watch his Junior and Senior seasons you get a taste of what he is capable of.  He has the look and all the skill and could develop into a reliable back-up with the proper coaching.

Alternative-QB Jeff Driskel/Louisiana Tech

 

Priority UDFAs:

QB/WR-Trevone Boykin-TCU: Has two ways of making this team a unique athlete but will probably need grooming good PS candidate

WR-MarQuez North-Tenn: Young receiver with a big frame 6’4” 216 and some speed problems in the mental department, but another guy with elite tools who just needs some coaching

RB-Keenan Reynolds-Navy: Guy Scores TDs is there anything else necessary to say the guy can score

RB-Brandon Wilds-SC: Bigger back something we don’t really have at the moment

DE-Jimmy Bean-OKST: Hard to judge because you would expect more from the guy who played across from Ogbah but he has flashed in games and could be valuable down the road

LB-Jake Ganus-UGA: Solid fundamental tackler/Leader by nature kind of a Worrilow Clone and I believe that is a good thing

DB-Brian Poole-UF: A solid corner who never got his due because of all the great talent around him, but he is a serious talent and it’s hard to imagine CBS rating him so low

K-Ross Martin-Duke: 84% of FGs hit in college and he only missed one XP in 4 years and that was as a freshman.  Not Aguayo by any means but solid enough to take a look at especially as a UDFA

Projected Roster: Contested Spots in Red/Longshots in Green/FAs highlighted

Offense:

QB: Ryan/Renfree/Allen/T. Boykin

RB: Freeman/Coleman/Ward/Mooney/Wilds/Reynolds

FB: Dimarco

WR: Julio/Reuben Randle/White/Hardy/Williams/T. Boykin/North

TE: Tamme/Ladarius Green/Toilolo

LT: Matthews/Harris

LG: Levitre/Person

OC: Ben Jones/Stone

RG: Chester/Person

RT: Schraeder/Harris

Defense:

Run Downs Defensive Line

LEO: Vic Beasley Jr.

DT: Jarrett

NT: Soliai

DE: Nkemdiche

 

Pass Downs

LEO: Striker

DT: Nkemdiche

NT: Hageman

DE: Beasley

 

General Rotations:

LEO: Beasley/Schofield/Striker

DT: Nkemdiche/Hageman/Babineaux

NT: Soliai/Jarrett/Mbu

DE: Beasley/Goodman/Bean

 

WLB: Jenkins/Striker

MLB: Trevathan/Worrilow/Ganus

SLB: Reed/Stupar/Striker

 

LCB: Trufant/B. Boykin/Poole

FS: Allen/Therezie

SS: Cash/Ishmael/Godfrey

RCB: Alford/Collins

 Special Teams:

K: Graham/Martin

P: Bosher

LS: Harris

H: Bosher

KR: B. Boykin

PR: B. Boykin

   This gives us the option to carry 3 QBs, 4 RBs, 7 Wrs, or even 3 MLBs depending on who performs in camp as a quick rundown shows I only have 51 slots locked up and there are several opportunities for those young UDFAs to make the roster if they perform well.  In my opinion this mock-offseason gives us a chance to not only plug every notable hole on our roster, but it de ages our team quite a bit and gives us an opportunity to add cheap pieces that can be moved on from if they do not pan out in our system.

 

 

Edited February 9, 2016 by #84

[DMT11]

Spottrac is not accounting for future dead cap space from June 1st cuts baker and all that we really have in the low 20s currently - after we resign some guys and cut some guys well stil be in the 24 mil range total for FA - all of this movement here is pretty unrealistic although I be tickeled pink if possible. 

[1989Fan]

I would not give Worrilow a 2nd round tender. He isn't worth the extra $1MM. Give him the lowest tender (first right of refusal). That's nitpicking though.

I also would try to ink Schraeder to a 4-5 year deal this year while we can use the tender as leverage.

As far as UFA, not a fan of signing Boykin really and Randle is a drop monster. I like Jones, have wanted Danny T in red n black for a long time, and Green would be a nice get if SD lets him get away. Would rather spend that (Boykin/Randle) money on a good RG, and let Chester hit the road.

I like all the draft picks. If Billings were there I would prefer him over Nkemdiche though.

Great depth on the write up though, and nobody will ever agree w 100% of anyone's mocks.

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

I disagree with some of the names throughout but this is well written and well reasoned.  

Initial disagreements: too much cash for Trevathan, no thanks to Rueben Randle, would rather than just bring in some UDFA kickers to look for a replacement. You can find good kickers on the UDFA wire. 

[The O.D.B]

Wow, after your title I expected to come into this thread, giggle a little that your taking first round prospect in the 4^th and then supply a link to CBSSports but, no, You knocked it out of the park my man. Great job.

 

 

 

THE BAD:

 

DEN MLB Danny Trevathan – Elway announced today that he’s a priority signing so, doesn’t look like it’ll happen.

 

Your draft alternates, save Dodd, Make me want to light kittens on fire and thow them at kittens who aren’t on fire to

 

Catch them on fire too.

 

 

 

THE GOOD:

 

All that I can say is…..SPLOOOSH! I’d love these pickups. I like Deon Jones better than Jenkins but, both are good.

 

 

 

HOU OC Ben Jones

 

PIT CB Brandon Boykin

 

Round 1-DT/DE Robert Nkemdiche/

 

Round 2-SS Jeremy Cash

 

Round 3-OLB Jordan Jenkins

 

Round 4-OLB/DE Eric Striker

 

Round 7-QB Brandon Allen

 

Edited February 9, 2016 by The O.D.B

[theProf]

Appreciate the effort that went into this.

[theProf]

13 minutes ago, DMT11 said:

Spottrac is not accounting for future dead cap space from June 1st cuts baker and all that we really have in the low 20s currently - after we resign some guys and cut some guys well stil be in the 24 mil range total for FA - all of this movement here is pretty unrealistic although I be tickeled pink if possible. 

Nope Spotrac has already accounted for all the dead money against the 2016 salary cap including the remainder of Baker's dead money:

The following is a recap of Atlanta's existing dead money charges thus far against the 2016 salary-cap:

Sam Baker $6,400,000 (this is the remainder from the 2015 designated June 1 cut)

Jon Asamoah $3,900,000

William Moore $3,300,000

Justin Durant $833,334

Dez Southward $345,418

Subtotal  $14,778,752

Other players $262,490

Total Dead Money $15,041,242 charged against the 2016 salary-cap thus far per Spotrac

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/cap/

[Theyhateme : )]

Roddy's already said...No cut in pay.  

[blackredfellow]

Appreciate the time and effort.

Here's my worthless take

1. Nice draft for the post part. I don't want Nkemdiche. I feel like we already got him in Hageman. I keep hearing about his motivation and effort problems. I'd rather have Billings if we draft DT. Love Cash and obviously if Striker is there in 4th you take him.

2. I would also not use a pick on a QB. We only have 5 picks this year, they need to be put to best use possible. If Ryan goes down, doesn't matter who is backing up, we're f***ed.

3. Ben Jones. Yes.

4. Trevathan. Yes. But probably not making it to FA. He'll stay in Devner.

5. Roddy won't take a pay cut, on record saying as much.

6. I'd say no to Randle and Boykin. Randle would be okay i guess, there are a handful of other WRs I think would be better, Matthews and Benjamin foremost. Benjamin could also return. Boykin is hot garbage and I'd love to stay away from him.

7. Ladarius Green. If he reaches FA, we need to get this guy. I see him being a beast for years.

Overall, pretty good write up though!

[#84]

I will admit I think that the Reuben/Boykin signings were probably based more on my SEC bias than anything else.  However I really appreciate all the feedback and I may do an update just before free agency, and maybe around the combine as things become more clear.

[Realist]

I think it's a pretty realistic mock off-season.

[MattyIceCube]

Not bad, but some of your draft values are way off.

[ryanadonis]

7-9.  Again, not enough to make this team any better. Still relying on some really horrible players to produce. Offensive line is still a joke, defensive line wouldn't generate pass rush if they went unblocked.  Wide receiver position is a mess.  Running back position?  6 guys?  ok.  QB situation still a mess.  Boykin gets drafted no mattter what.  

I just don't get it anymore.  This team needs a whole new attitude adjustment and yet everyone wants to bring in the same exact type of guys Mike Smith and Thomas Dimitroff would.  

This team will never change if you never have the guts to do things drastic. 

[AndySG]

****. We are still paying Baker $6.4 million?

 

Great work. I would be ecstatic. 

[1989Fan]

tell us how you really feel R!

[Lornoth]

FA is a bit idealistic, and yeah Roddy's not restructuring, but this is great man. Good job.

[Ben Day Hoe]

I think we can get a cheaper starting center than Jones and still be improved there. This was a great read. Thanks!

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

2 hours ago, #84 said:

I will admit I think that the Reuben/Boykin signings were probably based more on my SEC bias than anything else.  However I really appreciate all the feedback and I may do an update just before free agency, and maybe around the combine as things become more clear.

I thought Boykin would be a good target as well. Rumor on the street is that he's interested in staying in Pittsburgh but if not, he could be a bargain signing. 

Randle just hasnt shown me enough. He's had ample opportunity to prove himself as a strong WR2 next to both Cruz and then OBJ. And he just hasnt really done it, IMO. The stats look okay but the film is "meh" and even the gamelogs arent overwhelmingly impressive. I think if we could get him as a cheap WR3 option I'd be into it. But I think he's overextended if youre trying to make him a WR2 and I wouldnt be willing to pay him that much. 

But I do think there are FA WRs that can help this team quite a bit. I'd like to see us pick a couple up. If we could go into next year with Julio, Hardy, a rookie drafted in the first 100 picks and two modestly priced value FAs, we'd be in good shape. Maybe a combo of Brian Quick and Andre Holmes or a veteran like Nate Washington combined with Jermaine Kearse. 

 

[birdz4i]

2 hours ago, R_The_Great said:

7-9.  Again, not enough to make this team any better. Still relying on some really horrible players to produce. Offensive line is still a joke, defensive line wouldn't generate pass rush if they went unblocked.  Wide receiver position is a mess.  Running back position?  6 guys?  ok.  QB situation still a mess.  Boykin gets drafted no mattter what.  

I just don't get it anymore.  This team needs a whole new attitude adjustment and yet everyone wants to bring in the same exact type of guys Mike Smith and Thomas Dimitroff would.  

This team will never change if you never have the guts to do things drastic. 

 

what does it matter what this team goes? you gave up on it. R the quitter.

[youngbloodz]

Quinn likes long corners. No way Boykin comes here. Doesnt fit the scheme. Love your first 4 picks. Home runs and very realistic too

[AndySG]

I wouldn't worry that he disagrees. His two big "evaluations" have been that Stone is going to be an all-pro center and Clayborn is going to be a dominant pass rusher. 

[UGABOZ]

great job and man great research, dont agree on all accounts but man nice read

[PokerSteve]

4 hours ago, Theyhateme : ) said:

Roddy's already said...No cut in pay.  

Adios, amigo.

[ryanadonis]

1 hour ago, birdz4i said:

 

what does it matter what this team goes? you gave up on it. R the quitter.

yeah, am I the one not to fall on a fumble like Cam Newton?  No.  I actually care about making the team better.

[birdz4i]

Just now, R_The_Great said:

yeah, am I the one not to fall on a fumble like Cam Newton?  No.  I actually care about making the team better.

 

no, you are the one that acted like cam at the presser and started a thread claiming you had finally had enough and were done. hence why most people remind you to be a man of your word and leave.