My winning Formula (Opinions????)

[datchrisb1]

I haven't been here a long time. Been a fan for a very long time but haven't been on these boards long. It seems like my thinking is so different from others here. I look at a winning team very different from most of you guys. I'm not concerned about a wide receiver, not concerned about a safety.  I just look at the REAL impact on the game guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and even Julio have and as far as winning, I just don't see it a must have to actually have this guy on the outside when especially we have so much stuff that needs improvement/upgrades closer to the ball. These guys can have monster games and we lose, i.e. Calvin Johnson his whole career, Julio the Green Bay game... They can have good games, but the REAL win is if the QB plays well, and the fronts are sound. That's what I see. Against Carolina, Julio had a monster game, but we won the game up front and with Matt playing sound football.  I really STRICTLY believe in building from the inside out. Safety and wideout are not even in the discussion unless the value is right, other than that to me those positions aren't mandatory upgrades, what we have will suffice.  A new SS and WR isn't a need in my opinion.  To me we have our starting safety in Kemal Ishmael on the team already, don't NEED an upgrade, we have the wideouts we need already, the offense just needs to get going. Roddy didn't know the playbook until the 3rd quarter of the season, even the QB struggled with the playbook.  To me this team has needs, SS and WR isn't one of them.

 

This is a comment I had on someone's post...

 

The Formula

The further away from the ball, the less of an impact on the game you are in the grand scheme of things. Calvin Johnson has been the best WR in the game for about a decade, what has Detroit won with him there. QB is the most important they touch the ball every single down. In saying that since the QB is most important, you have to both attack the QB and protect the QB, so the next thing on the ladder of importance here is the LOS. Now the most simpliest way to also protect the QB is to just take the ball out of his hands an equal amount of downs in the game, basically run the ball efficiently. If you run the ball 50/50, it makes your protection more efficient, also your offense as a whole more efficient. Another way of protecting him is check downs, tight ends love check downs, so do running backs. In a lot of ways depending on the type of offense, a good tight end is more important than a wide receiver. Now you need guys who can account for both attacking the run and attacking the pass. That brings in your linebackers.to both cover these backs and tight ends and fit the run gaps when your D line is doing what they suppose to do. True good corners and receivers are essential but after you have what I have stated first. Heck, if my D line is tight and my linebackers are straight I could have average Joe Smith off the streets back there playing safety, and if my running game is tight and my QB has his head on straight the same can be said for my wide outs really. You don't need top wide receivers to win, and you can find good wide receivers off the streets. Look at Carolina. Basically, your not winning games PERIOD without a good QB, a good front 7, and a good O-line. You win Super Bowls with 2 out of those 3 being great. That's the formula.

Simple:

(Solid QB) + (Solid front 7) + (Solid O-line) = a winning team.   If any two of these variables are above average thats a Super Bowl contending team. To me that's the model you follow for building the team, not putting so much focus and energy in WR, CB, SS, basically skill position players.

Edited February 5, 2016 by datchrisb1

[AEFalcon]

I largely agree with this formula. Teams with dominating lines are hard to defeat. I remember in the 70s all the great teams had a dominating defensive front 4. With the evaluation of the game it helps to have a dominating front 7 on defense now days. It also helps to have a playmaker on offense, we already have 2 in JJ and Freeman.The best way I see to arrive at your formula this offseason since Shanny's offense is apparently not easy to pick-up or fit in is to go after offense in FA, specifically Interior O-lineman with experience in the system (prefer OC and OG) with a minor signing of a #2 WR with experience/success in system. in the draft go after defensive players that are "fast and physical" like DQ wants with at least one d-line edge player as a priority and a LB or 2. JMHO

[datchrisb1]

14 minutes ago, AEFalcon said:

I largely agree with this formula. Teams with dominating lines are hard to defeat. I remember in the 70s all the great teams had a dominating defensive front 4. With the evaluation of the game it helps to have a dominating front 7 on defense now days. It also helps to have a playmaker on offense, we already have 2 in JJ and Freeman.The best way I see to arrive at your formula this offseason since Shanny's offense is apparently not easy to pick-up or fit in is to go after offense in FA, specifically Interior O-lineman with experience in the system (prefer OC and OG) with a minor signing of a #2 WR with experience/success in system. in the draft go after defensive players that are "fast and physical" like DQ wants with at least one d-line edge player as a priority and a LB or 2. JMHO

There bringing Roddy back, he will be our number 2. I do agree we could bring in a vet min guy for experience, but with both Nick Williams and Justin Hardy in year 2 of the offense we will be proficient in our passing game with what we have.

[AEFalcon]

7 hours ago, datchrisb1 said:

There bringing Roddy back, he will be our number 2. I do agree we could bring in a vet min guy for experience, but with both Nick Williams and Justin Hardy in year 2 of the offense we will be proficient in our passing game with what we have.

Yeah, bringing in another WR is minor point to my offseason suggestions compared to bringing in proven interior o-lineman. I'm OK with bringing Roddy back but I would like some insurance as it took to long for Roddy to create space last season. I do think Roddy could/ was open some last year, Ryan just didnt have the time to find him. I think more comfort in shanny's system and better pocket protection ( with FA OL signings) Ryan would throw more passes Roddys way. also Roddy should be more familiar with system as well. That being said, another WR familiar with the system would be helpful leaving Hardy and Williams as depth. But the key to fix our offensive woes is better O Line play which goes back to your point in the original post. 

[FAN_O_THE_ATL]

Really good formula. Well said. 

[Smiler11]

No one is going to argue with you that dominant teams are built from the inside out. At the very same time those dominant teams didn't necessarily use 1st round picks to get those dominant lines. Its about finding value and finding scheme specific players, whether that is through FA or the draft.

I wouldn't target a WR early in this draft. With safety it all depends who is there (if Jalen Ramsey was to somehow fall to our 1st pick then its a no brainer). Guard may be our biggest need, but I'm not spending a 1st round pick on a guard, when statistics tell you you are just as likely to find a starter in the middle rounds.

A rangy linebacker is a massive need and with the likes of Jack, Smith and Lee that might be the best way to go in the 1st. Defensive tackle isn't as big of a need for me, I think we need a long term 1 tech who can also play the 5 but we've got a lot a players who can play the 3. Saying that the strength of the draft might be interior D-line players so if A'Shawn Robinson is there in the 1st I'd be tempted to pick him. 

Ultimately whilst the concept of building from the inside out is sound and something I subscribe to, there are different ways of doing it. The best teams find value and schematic fits throughout the draft and FA.

[PapaJoe]

50 minutes ago, Smiler11 said:

No one is going to argue with you that dominant teams are built from the inside out. At the very same time those dominant teams didn't necessarily use 1st round picks to get those dominant lines. Its about finding value and finding scheme specific players, whether that is through FA or the draft.

I wouldn't target a WR early in this draft. With safety it all depends who is there (if Jalen Ramsey was to somehow fall to our 1st pick then its a no brainer). Guard may be our biggest need, but I'm not spending a 1st round pick on a guard, when statistics tell you you are just as likely to find a starter in the middle rounds.

A rangy linebacker is a massive need and with the likes of Jack, Smith and Lee that might be the best way to go in the 1st. Defensive tackle isn't as big of a need for me, I think we need a long term 1 tech who can also play the 5 but we've got a lot a players who can play the 3. Saying that the strength of the draft might be interior D-line players so if A'Shawn Robinson is there in the 1st I'd be tempted to pick him. 

Ultimately whilst the concept of building from the inside out is sound and something I subscribe to, there are different ways of doing it. The best teams find value and schematic fits throughout the draft and FA.

Many DTs simply can NOT play the 5-tech effectively though due to lack of length, We have one young DT already on the roster that is built for it and has the combination of necessary athleticism, bulk, length, strength to be a beast as a 5-tech in the Quinn defense.

I consider it a great mystery as to why we didn't see it some in 2015. I presume it was because we had the DE group which already used TJax and Clayborn and Bierman that had to play somewhere. I want to see Hageman moved to the 5 and we draft another young DT in 2016 to go inside with Jarrett. Retain Soliai for 2016 as well. Perhaps Goodman will amount to something in 2016?

A potential player in the draft that could perhaps be a combo DT/DE for us is Vernon Butler - LA Tech; 6' 4" and 325 lbs.

[Smiler11]

32 minutes ago, m2Falcons said:

Many DTs simply can NOT play the 5-tech effectively though due to lack of length, We have one young DT already on the roster that is built for it and has the combination of necessary athleticism, bulk, length, strength to be a beast as a 5-tech in the Quinn defense.

I consider it a great mystery as to why we didn't see it some in 2015. I presume it was because we had the DE group which already used TJax and Clayborn and Bierman that had to play somewhere. I want to see Hageman moved to the 5 and we draft another young DT in 2016 to go inside with Jarrett. Retain Soliai for 2016 as well. Perhaps Goodman will amount to something in 2016?

A potential player in the draft that could perhaps be a combo DT/DE for us is Vernon Butler - LA Tech; 6' 4" and 325 lbs.

I agree I think Hageman could be great at either the 5 or 3. We need someone that can cover both the 1 and 5, which is difficult. Butler is one, Robinson is another and Jarran Reed is probably my favorite of the bunch for that role.

We could draft another purely 3tech but we've already got Hageman, Jarrett, Babs and Clayborn that can play the 3 so for me it isn't a huge need.

[Robb4242]

On 2/5/2016 at 11:51 AM, datchrisb1 said:

I haven't been here a long time. Been a fan for a very long time but haven't been on these boards long. It seems like my thinking is so different from others here. I look at a winning team very different from most of you guys. I'm not concerned about a wide receiver, not concerned about a safety.  I just look at the REAL impact on the game guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and even Julio have and as far as winning, I just don't see it a must have to actually have this guy on the outside when especially we have so much stuff that needs improvement/upgrades closer to the ball. These guys can have monster games and we lose, i.e. Calvin Johnson his whole career, Julio the Green Bay game... They can have good games, but the REAL win is if the QB plays well, and the fronts are sound. That's what I see. Against Carolina, Julio had a monster game, but we won the game up front and with Matt playing sound football.  I really STRICTLY believe in building from the inside out. Safety and wideout are not even in the discussion unless the value is right, other than that to me those positions aren't mandatory upgrades, what we have will suffice.  A new SS and WR isn't a need in my opinion.  To me we have our starting safety in Kemal Ishmael on the team already, don't NEED an upgrade, we have the wideouts we need already, the offense just needs to get going. Roddy didn't know the playbook until the 3rd quarter of the season, even the QB struggled with the playbook.  To me this team has needs, SS and WR isn't one of them.

 

This is a comment I had on someone's post...

 

The Formula

The further away from the ball, the less of an impact on the game you are in the grand scheme of things. Calvin Johnson has been the best WR in the game for about a decade, what has Detroit won with him there. QB is the most important they touch the ball every single down. In saying that since the QB is most important, you have to both attack the QB and protect the QB, so the next thing on the ladder of importance here is the LOS. Now the most simpliest way to also protect the QB is to just take the ball out of his hands an equal amount of downs in the game, basically run the ball efficiently. If you run the ball 50/50, it makes your protection more efficient, also your offense as a whole more efficient. Another way of protecting him is check downs, tight ends love check downs, so do running backs. In a lot of ways depending on the type of offense, a good tight end is more important than a wide receiver. Now you need guys who can account for both attacking the run and attacking the pass. That brings in your linebackers.to both cover these backs and tight ends and fit the run gaps when your D line is doing what they suppose to do. True good corners and receivers are essential but after you have what I have stated first. Heck, if my D line is tight and my linebackers are straight I could have average Joe Smith off the streets back there playing safety, and if my running game is tight and my QB has his head on straight the same can be said for my wide outs really. You don't need top wide receivers to win, and you can find good wide receivers off the streets. Look at Carolina. Basically, your not winning games PERIOD without a good QB, a good front 7, and a good O-line. You win Super Bowls with 2 out of those 3 being great. That's the formula.

Simple:

(Solid QB) + (Solid front 7) + (Solid O-line) = a winning team.   If any two of these variables are above average thats a Super Bowl contending team. To me that's the model you follow for building the team, not putting so much focus and energy in WR, CB, SS, basically skill position players.

 

[datchrisb1]

14 hours ago, Smiler11 said:

No one is going to argue with you that dominant teams are built from the inside out. At the very same time those dominant teams didn't necessarily use 1st round picks to get those dominant lines. Its about finding value and finding scheme specific players, whether that is through FA or the draft.

I wouldn't target a WR early in this draft. With safety it all depends who is there (if Jalen Ramsey was to somehow fall to our 1st pick then its a no brainer). Guard may be our biggest need, but I'm not spending a 1st round pick on a guard, when statistics tell you you are just as likely to find a starter in the middle rounds.

A rangy linebacker is a massive need and with the likes of Jack, Smith and Lee that might be the best way to go in the 1st. Defensive tackle isn't as big of a need for me, I think we need a long term 1 te

ch who can also play the 5 but we've got a lot a players who can play the 3. Saying that the strength of the draft might be interior D-line players so if A'Shawn Robinson is there in the 1st I'd be tempted to pick him. 

Ultimately whilst the concept of building from the inside out is sound and something I subscribe to, there are different ways of doing it. The best teams find value and schematic fits throughout the draft and FA.

 

No they didn't spend all of there 1st round picks on the line of scrimmage, but they at least have 2 there. We just got our first one on the defensive side last draft and aside from Baker we went what 7 years before addressing it that high in the draft on the offensive side.  What I'm really saying is not just you build from the inside out, it's more about you win from the inside out. You win by your QB playing a clean sound game and winning the line of scrimmage. THAT'S IT. It's just that simple, 2 wideouts only help if my O lineman can win one on one, because that's all that does, instead of the safety bearing down, he stays deep. Doesn't make a lick of difference if the line isn't at least sound (hold there on man to man).  I'm just a fan, no I wouldn't be getting a ring, but I want to win Super Bowls, not games.  If Carolina wins we will be the only team without one. I for one don't enjoy that thought. Heck even bad teams don't finish the season 0-16, don't care about winning games.  I'm just so sick of the "we need a wide receiver" talk, "who is our next safety". I just look at the game different...

 

We moved the ball no problem, our offense had a problem ACTUALLY SCORING AND NOT TURNING THE BALL OVER, not moving the ball and getting first downs. To me that doesn't come close to, draft a freaking wide out in the top 3 picks. That doesn't solve a freaking red zone problem.  On defense, we stopped the run, didn't give up big plays (matter fact was top in the league in doing that at one point), and couldn't put heat on the QB. To me that doesn't say go pick up a freaking safety.  We have a problem putting fear into the QB, that's not go get a freaking safety. We have the safeties we need already, we have the wideouts we need already.

 

 I just see things different to me the people screaming wideout and safety wasn't paying attention to the game.

[jwickha2]

4 minutes ago, datchrisb1 said:

We moved the ball no problem, our offense had a problem ACTUALLY SCORING AND NOT TURNING THE BALL OVER, not moving the ball and getting first downs. To me that doesn't come close to, draft a freaking wide out in the top 3 picks. That doesn't solve a freaking red zone problem.  On defense, we stopped the run, didn't give up big plays (matter fact was top in the league in doing that at one point), and couldn't put heat on the QB. To me that doesn't say go pick up a freaking safety.  We have a problem putting fear into the QB, that's not go get a freaking safety. We have the safeties we need already, we have the wideouts we need already.

[Smiler11]

11 hours ago, datchrisb1 said:

 

No they didn't spend all of there 1st round picks on the line of scrimmage, but they at least have 2 there. We just got our first one on the defensive side last draft and aside from Baker we went what 7 years before addressing it that high in the draft on the offensive side.  What I'm really saying is not just you build from the inside out, it's more about you win from the inside out. You win by your QB playing a clean sound game and winning the line of scrimmage. THAT'S IT. It's just that simple, 2 wideouts only help if my O lineman can win one on one, because that's all that does, instead of the safety bearing down, he stays deep. Doesn't make a lick of difference if the line isn't at least sound (hold there on man to man).  I'm just a fan, no I wouldn't be getting a ring, but I want to win Super Bowls, not games.  If Carolina wins we will be the only team without one. I for one don't enjoy that thought. Heck even bad teams don't finish the season 0-16, don't care about winning games.  I'm just so sick of the "we need a wide receiver" talk, "who is our next safety". I just look at the game different...

 

We moved the ball no problem, our offense had a problem ACTUALLY SCORING AND NOT TURNING THE BALL OVER, not moving the ball and getting first downs. To me that doesn't come close to, draft a freaking wide out in the top 3 picks. That doesn't solve a freaking red zone problem.  On defense, we stopped the run, didn't give up big plays (matter fact was top in the league in doing that at one point), and couldn't put heat on the QB. To me that doesn't say go pick up a freaking safety.  We have a problem putting fear into the QB, that's not go get a freaking safety. We have the safeties we need already, we have the wideouts we need already.

 

 I just see things different to me the people screaming wideout and safety wasn't paying attention to the game.

I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm just stating that there are different ways to build from the inside out. Spending 1st rounds picks on the offensive line doesn't guarantee you a great O line and having a great O-line doesn't always make you a winning team (see cowboys). 

I also agree that while a future replacement for Roddy White and William Moore is a need, its way down the list. 

How do you apply the 'inside out' logic to this off season? Do we address the lines early in the draft and if so who are you looking at and what role do they fill? 

[jwickha2]

16 minutes ago, Smiler11 said:

I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm just stating that there are different ways to build from the inside out. Spending 1st rounds picks on the offensive line doesn't guarantee you a great O line and having a great O-line doesn't always make you a winning team (see cowboys). 
 

The Cowboys were 1 bad call away from playing in the Super Bowl last year. And this year they lost their QB and got worse than replacement level from their backups, so I still believe his formula works. Heck, the Cowboys Oline made Darren McFadden relevant again

[Smiler11]

2 minutes ago, jwickha2 said:

The Cowboys were 1 bad call away from playing in the Super Bowl last year. And this year they lost their QB and got worse than replacement level from their backups, so I still believe his formula works. Heck, the Cowboys Oline made Darren McFadden relevant again

Ok see Browns.

[jwickha2]

 

11 minutes ago, Smiler11 said:

Ok see Browns.

Well again the solid QB play

[datchrisb1]

5 hours ago, Smiler11 said:

I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm just stating that there are different ways to build from the inside out. Spending 1st rounds picks on the offensive line doesn't guarantee you a great O line and having a great O-line doesn't always make you a winning team (see cowboys). 

I also agree that while a future replacement for Roddy White and William Moore is a need, its way down the list. 

How do you apply the 'inside out' logic to this off season? Do we address the lines early in the draft and if so who are you looking at and what role do they fill? 

 Finding value is part of it of course, put it this way. When you look at your team, the strength of your team better be up front and at QB, if not you need to make the proper adjustments. 

 

As far as the offseason personally I think we have the cap to get 2 OL and a DE. Draft wise my dream scenario would pretty much be front 7 top 4 picks hopefully pass rusher, LB, LB, DL .  I've done a lot of 3 round mocks, finished other 1st round mocks, and seen a lot of 4 round mocks. We are pretty much guaranteed to have a top DL in the first and 2 starters on defense. The draft is deep defensively.