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Compensatory Picks?


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From a previous post of mine on this issue:

Posted 14 May 2015 - 09:05 AM

The free agency period for compensatory draft purposes ended on May 12 this year. Unrestricted Free agents signed after May 12 will not factor into the compensatory draft formula. Therefore, this is a good time to try and project if the Falcons might be awarded any comp picks for the 2016 draft.

To determine if a team might get comp picks, one has to determine if a team is in a Net Loss situation, ie the compensatory UFAs lost to other teams is greater than the compensatory free agents signed. "Compensatory" free agents would be Unrestricted free agents whose contracts had expired (not cut or released before contract expiration), who are signed during the free agency period (March 10 to May 12 this year), and whose average annual contract compensation is greater than a minimum threshold amount (recent minimum threshold amounts appear to be between $900,000 to $950,000).

If a team is in a Net Loss situation, then they will receive comp picks in the next draft = to the Net Loss Amount up to a maximum of 4 picks per team. If a team is in a Net Gain situation, then NO comp pick. No team has ever been awarded a comp pick if they had a Net Gain. If a team is in a -0- Net situation, ie, the UFAs signed were exactly equal to the UFAs lost, then they might receive a 7th round comp pick, if the value of the free agents lost is significantly more than the value of the free agents signed.

At this point, I project that Atlanta will NOT be entitled to any comp picks in the 2016 draft because they are currently in a projected Net Gain situation of 2 (7 signed - 5 lost). I project that Atlanta has signed 7 compensable UFAs: Reed, Durant, Clayborn, Schofield, Tamme, Person, and Hankerson. UFAs under the minimum threshold signed by the Falcons include Adams, Moeaki, Mooney, and Jared Smith, and thus will not count in the comp formula. Also Polumbus will not count since he was signed after May 12.

I project that Atlanta has lost 5 compensable UFAs: Spoon, Peters, McClain, Josh Wilson, and Lowery. Wilson and Lowery are very near the borderline of the minimum threshold amount with annual compensation of $950,000 each. Atlanta has also lost Quiz Rodgers and Bear Pasco to other teams, but they will not count in the formula because their annual compensation is less than the minimum threhold amount.

Things could still change though. If one of the compensable UFAs does not make a team's final roster, then they would not count in the comp formula. For example, if Mike Person and Leonard Hankerson do not make the Falcons final roster, then they would not count in the comp formula as a compensable free agent signed by the Falcons.

http://boards.atlantafalcons.com/topic/4028301-projecting-atlantas-2016-compensatory-draft-pick-situation/

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From a previous post of mine on this issue:

Posted 14 May 2015 - 09:05 AM

The free agency period for compensatory draft purposes ended on May 12 this year. Unrestricted Free agents signed after May 12 will not factor into the compensatory draft formula. Therefore, this is a good time to try and project if the Falcons might be awarded any comp picks for the 2016 draft.

To determine if a team might get comp picks, one has to determine if a team is in a Net Loss situation, ie the compensatory UFAs lost to other teams is greater than the compensatory free agents signed. "Compensatory" free agents would be Unrestricted free agents whose contracts had expired (not cut or released before contract expiration), who are signed during the free agency period (March 10 to May 12 this year), and whose average annual contract compensation is greater than a minimum threshold amount (recent minimum threshold amounts appear to be between $900,000 to $950,000).

If a team is in a Net Loss situation, then they will receive comp picks in the next draft = to the Net Loss Amount up to a maximum of 4 picks per team. If a team is in a Net Gain situation, then NO comp pick. No team has ever been awarded a comp pick if they had a Net Gain. If a team is in a -0- Net situation, ie, the UFAs signed were exactly equal to the UFAs lost, then they might receive a 7th round comp pick, if the value of the free agents lost is significantly more than the value of the free agents signed.

At this point, I project that Atlanta will NOT be entitled to any comp picks in the 2016 draft because they are currently in a projected Net Gain situation of 2 (7 signed - 5 lost). I project that Atlanta has signed 7 compensable UFAs: Reed, Durant, Clayborn, Schofield, Tamme, Person, and Hankerson. UFAs under the minimum threshold signed by the Falcons include Adams, Moeaki, Mooney, and Jared Smith, and thus will not count in the comp formula. Also Polumbus will not count since he was signed after May 12.

I project that Atlanta has lost 5 compensable UFAs: Spoon, Peters, McClain, Josh Wilson, and Lowery. Wilson and Lowery are very near the borderline of the minimum threshold amount with annual compensation of $950,000 each. Atlanta has also lost Quiz Rodgers and Bear Pasco to other teams, but they will not count in the formula because their annual compensation is less than the minimum threhold amount.

Things could still change though. If one of the compensable UFAs does not make a team's final roster, then they would not count in the comp formula. For example, if Mike Person and Leonard Hankerson do not make the Falcons final roster, then they would not count in the comp formula as a compensable free agent signed by the Falcons.

http://boards.atlantafalcons.com/topic/4028301-projecting-atlantas-2016-compensatory-draft-pick-situation/

One subsequent update to my May post re projected comp picks for 2016. Robert McClain got cut by the Patriots in September, so he definitely will NOT count as a compensatory free agent lost by the Falcons. Therefore, instead of a Net GAIN of 2, I'm now projecting a Net Gain of 3. Once again, No team has ever received comp picks if they are in a Net Gain situation.

Also subsequent to my May post on the comp issue, Leonard Hankerson did get cut by the Falcons in December. However, since this occurred after the 10th game of the season, Hankerson will still count as a qualified signing in the comp formula. The Falcons also signed Chris Chester and Gino Gradkowski. Neither of these will count in the comp formula, because they were signed after the May 12 cut-off date and also because they both were cut. Levitre was also signed by the Falcons. He will not count either because he was not a free agent, he was under contract and traded.This transaction also happened after the cut-off date.

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Yeah. I'm almost glad. If he tore it up this season I'd have been so mad. But all he tore up was his knee.

EDIT: This is a joke and I hope it is read as such hahaha

I take it as meant. We paid and suffered w/ Spoon time and again w/ all his injuries. We were frustrated as fans because we were so convinced when he was drafted that he was going to be very good - he never was and mostly never had enough playing time because of being hurt.......it would have been frustrating to see him go elsewhere, stay healthy and dominate.

I don't wish Spoon to be hurt - but it also does not bother me if he does not have a good career elsewhere.

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We have not had enough players reach the end of thier contracts, then sign with another team. We certainly can't expect much out of our former draft picks, Quinn gave most of them thier release before and during the season, so they do not count in the compensation formula. Add in the fact we signed -so- many FAs last offseason, I don't see how we would qualify.

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I dont think we will get any this year but with the sheer number of FA's we have this year, I could see us snagging 2 or 3 comp picks next year.

Yeah, but we'd have to replace those free agents who leave with other free agents... which negates the ability to receive a comp pick. We only have 5 draft picks right now, so we certainly won't be able to fill all of our holes via the draft.

Keep in mind that we don't get anything for guys we cut either... so potential cap casualties like Bryant, Roddy, Solei, TJax, Hester, Weems, etc., along with guys we've released, Baker, Asomoah, Hankerson will get us absolutely nothing in return should any of those players be picked up by another team.

The only guys who could possibly net us a comp pick next year are:

Kroy Biermann

Adrian Clayborn

Paul Worrilow

Ricardo Allen

Chris Chester

Gino Gradkowsi

Jake Long

Bryce Harris

Ryan Schraeder

Nate Stupar

Tony Moeaki

Phillip Wheeler

Charles Godfrey

Shayne Graham

About half of those guys will be re-signed in all likelihood & then we'll undoubtably bring in a few more free agents to replace the ones we let walk & the guys we cut... so I don't see much happening in terms of comp picks next year either.

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Yeah, but we'd have to replace those free agents who leave with other free agents... which negates the ability to receive a comp pick. We only have 5 draft picks right now, so we certainly won't be able to fill all of our holes via the draft.

Keep in mind that we don't get anything for guys we cut either... so potential cap casualties like Bryant, Roddy, Solei, TJax, Hester, Weems, etc., along with guys we've released, Baker, Asomoah, Hankerson will get us absolutely nothing in return should any of those players be picked up by another team.

The only guys who could possibly net us a comp pick next year are:

Kroy Biermann

Adrian Clayborn

Paul Worrilow

Ricardo Allen

Chris Chester

Gino Gradkowsi

Jake Long

Bryce Harris

Ryan Schraeder

Nate Stupar

Tony Moeaki

Phillip Wheeler

Charles Godfrey

Shayne Graham

About half of those guys will be re-signed in all likelihood & then we'll undoubtably bring in a few more free agents to replace the ones we let walk & the guys we cut... so I don't see much happening in terms of comp picks next year either.

Good points, and I concur with pretty much everything you posted. However, one correction to your post. Only qualified UFA's are included in the comp formula. Since RFAs and ERFAs are not UFAs, they will NOT count in the compensatory formula. The players indicated in red above are either RFAs (Worrilow, Schraeder, and Stupar) or an ERFA (Allen). Therefore if the Falcons were to lose any of these players to another team this year, they would not count in the compensatory formula.

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Well, we need proven Vets to go with our draft picks,, So no problem. Even thou I wish we had more picks in the draft. They can use that extra money on players that have played in the NFL. and know more about what we go after.. If they hit on the picks we have and get the right FAs , we will be in the hunt next year. This year was a learning Process by our new Coaches, They now have a much better understanding of who and what we need, and what Ryans strengths and weaknesses .... And can add and subtract all the right players.

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Good points, and I concur with pretty much everything you posted. However, one correction to your post. Only qualified UFA's are included in the comp formula. Since RFAs and ERFAs are not UFAs, they will NOT count in the compensatory formula. The players indicated in red above are either RFAs (Worrilow, Schraeder, and Stupar) or an ERFA (Allen). Therefore if the Falcons were to lose any of these players to another team this year, they would not count in the compensatory formula.

Yeah, I spaced on the RFAs. Thanks for pointing this out.

It makes sense that teams are not given comp picks for the RFAs since the team has the right to make an offer & receive that level of compensation from any other team trying to sign the RFA away. Basically, if someone signs an RFA from your team & you made them an offer you get compensation then, not later... but that almost never happens, because the cost is usually a little too high.

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Compensatory picks can be traded starting in 2017. Makes them incredibly valuable.

Didn't know about that. Should make free agency interesting as teams looking to build through the draft may be more willing to let some vets walk who would normally be kept, in order to stockpile tradable picks in the draft.

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