Dr Long Shot Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 (edited) Looking back on this play call, do people still think this was a good move? I was cursing at the TV when we decided to go for it, and ecstatic when we made it. Everyone seemed to agree at the time that it was a great, gutsy call by our Coach. However, I never really saw it that way, but I guess I was too pumped up about the win to really get too critical. Now that the sweet warm feeling of victory has faded however, I think it's time to go back to this play and define it for what it truly was... A horrible call at the end of the game by Dan Quinn. To do this let's go back and look at the context of the decision and it's statistical implications. This is going to be a long post but bear with me:The Context:After inexplicably being unable to run down the clock with the ball on the Carolina 40 yard line and 1:40 seconds left in the game; it's fourth down and everyone including the in game commentators are stunned when instead of punting and forcing Carolina to march 90 yards with no timeouts for a TD, Shayne Graham, a 38 kicker who had recently been signed as a FA, goes in the game to attempt a career long FG. The kick was good, and Atlanta stops Carolina in their final drive to win the game. Dan Quinn is a hero... Or is he really? Let's look at the statistical implications of this decision.Breaking down the call:I am going to be using the statistics I found in Advanced Football Analytics regarding the odds of scoring a TD with under two minutes left. http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/11/two-minute-drill.htmlFirst let's look at our odds of winning if we had decided to punt.According to their graph; The odds of scoring a TD with under two minutes left from the 10 yard line (likely field position after Bosher punt) are at around 10-15%. So let's assume we had punted there and that it wasn't blocked (which has only happened once in 60 attempts this season) we are looking at around an 85% chance of winning the ball game. These are great odds.Now let's look at how the made FG impacted our chances of winning: Well. Instead of having to drive 90 yards for a win, now Carolina must first drive 80 yards to tie the game, then win it in overtime. The first event has a 20% of happening now (up from 10% in the previous scenario), However now Carolina is relying on another event altogether which is winning in overtime. To calculate the aggregate odds of both of these events occurring let's assume what the odds would be of Carolina winning in OT once they had tied it. Let's be kind here and give them a 40% of winning had the game gone to overtime. Considering this we can calculate the aggregate odds of a Carolina win after the FG make as (20% x 40%) = 8%. Which means the decision to Kick netted the team, at the very most, an extra 2-7% chance of winning the game.But what if we had missed? We are looking at Carolina possession from our 40 yard line now, which gives them a 30% of winning the game. This is by far Carolina's best case scenario, as the swing in probability from punting to missing the FG, is a whopping 20% (10%-30%).To summarize: By Kicking instead of punting Dan Quinn is risking a 20% swing in odds for a 2-7% advantage. Not only that but Dan is putting that crucial 20% swing on the shoulders of a player who had never made a FG from that distance in his entire 15 year career! This is not good a good decision. In fact it’s downright terrible. This decision was only marginally better than the one to Kick a FG on fourth and goal in San Fran.Anyway, Just felt it was important to point out that in just 16 games we have had two of the worst late game decisions I have ever witnessed by a Falcons coach. Considering the main reason that we fired Mike Smith to begin with was this very same issue, to me this has been the single most disappointing facet of the Dan Quinn era so far, and it confuses me why he gets a free pass from people on this. Edited January 5, 2016 by Dr Long Shot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 No, I didn't like the call there. Obviously I'm happy with the result but the long FG attempt (especially with a backup K) isn't a very good idea. And FWIW, the New York Times 4th Down Bot says go for it though it was very close. http://nyt4thdownbot.com/play/20151227001568 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 And FTR, I dont think this decision was egregious in the way that many many Mike Smith decisions were. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Long Shot Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 (edited) No, I didn't like the call there. Obviously I'm happy with the result but the long FG attempt (especially with a backup K) isn't a very good idea. And FWIW, the New York Times 4th Down Bot says go for it though it was very close. http://nyt4thdownbot.com/play/20151227001568This makes a lot of sense because the reward of converting on fourth down is pretty much a 100% win for the Falcons. Kicking the FG however raises your chances of winning from 10% to 17% (at the very, very most) Edited January 5, 2016 by Dr Long Shot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Long Shot Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 And FTR, I dont think this decision was egregious in the way that many many Mike Smith decisions were. If we had lost the game it would have been fodder for every talk show just like the San Fran call IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Francis York Morgan Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Have to take risks sometimes. Bunch of people here sht on Smith but it feels like nearly everyone is conservative as heck themselves. Payton's call for an onsides kick at the half against the Colts would probably be universally labeled a bad call if there was a bot for it, but at the end of the day, the Saints have a Super Bowl and we don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 If we had lost the game it would have been fodder for every talk show just like the San Fran call IMO.See, I don't think the numbers support that. The 49ers call was unequivocally incorrect and left a lot of win equity on the field. And even though NFL fans have come a long way with respect to 4th down decisions, I think they still have quite a way to go. So the talk show fodder wouldnt bother me muchThis call was an on the edge call. 4th Down Bot puts the marginal gain at 2% assuming the rest of their numbers are correct. That gain decreases/disappears if you think they're being generous with their percentages. I would have gone for it but given where the team was in the game and the season, I don't think any of the three available options would have been incorrect. The 49ers call though. YIIIIIIIIKES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tldr Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 At first, I thought it was a gutsy call that showed confidence the D could stop them even at mid-field, if Graham had missed. When in reality it was a dumb call that basically said he didn't trust the D could stop Cam from scoring a TD, which forced him to go for the FG, so at worst the game would go into OT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Five_Fifs Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 You have to factor in that Shayne had reportedly been making kicks from 58 yards pregame.And Carolina is a big play waiting to happen... Be aggressive, believe in yourself, keep your destiny in your own hands... It's everything Quinn been preaching since day one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkerFalcon8710 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 What if what if what if Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capologist Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 People complain about being too conservative and then when a risky call is made there's more complaints. I swear, fans are never EVER satisfied... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Five_Fifs Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 People complain about being too conservative and then when a risky call is made there's more complaints. I swear, fans are never EVER satisfied...Hey Cappy, you played with out numbers yet in terms of cap space, assuming 150m cap? I saw someone did some math that has us at 26m before any cuts. But overthecap has us at 16.... I don't know who to trust lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Francis York Morgan Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Hey Cappy, you played with out numbers yet in terms of cap space, assuming 150m cap? I saw someone did some math that has us at 26m before any cuts. But overthecap has us at 16.... I don't know who to trust lolProbably trying to carry over the 10 we had this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxatlanta Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 It was a terrible call. The only thing we needed was for them not to score a touchdown. So we give them a 50/50 shot at getting the ball at midfield? With little time left in the game, and them out of time outs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Dog Named Brian Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'll admit to thinking "WHAT THE **** ARE YOU DOING?!?!?!?!" when Quinn made the call, but at the same time I like the aggression. Would've sucked if it didn't pan out, but it did, so there's no need to harp on the potential outcome that never was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Falcon Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 What are we talking about again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanfranfalcon Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Quinn said he's about always being agressive...all the time...this fits that approach!! regardless of anything else.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tuggle'2 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'll admit to thinking "WHAT THE **** ARE YOU DOING?!?!?!?!" when Quinn made the call, but at the same time I like the aggression. Would've sucked if it didn't pan out, but it did, so there's no need to harp on the potential outcome that never was.Especially after years of folks constantly complaining we aren't aggressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Dog Named Brian Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Especially after years of folks constantly complaining we aren't aggressive. You know I'd 'like' it if I could....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malachore Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I didn't like the call either, felt we should have just went for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falconsfan567 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The call was very risky but sometimes you have to make risky decisions in order to win. He did that and it paid off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zekeyboy1 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 "Be aggressive,believe in yourself,keep your destiny in your own hands". But kick a fg in the Niners game when we were down 4 with a couple of min left in the game? Aight then.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Long Shot Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 The call was very risky but sometimes you have to make risky decisions in order to win. He did that and it paid off.Why risk when you gain nothing? Making the FG put is in pretty much the same position as punting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falconsfan567 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Why risk when you gain nothing? Making the FG put is in pretty much the same position as punting. Didn't gain anything by kicking the FG? The FG made sure that the Falcons wouldn't lose on a TD unless the Panthers would have done something crazy like gone for 2. The Falcons win probability went from 88.54% to 99.44% because of that made FG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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