Occam's Razor And Matt Ryan

[schwarzenegger321]

Occam's razor, simply put, states that when there are a number of potential complex solutions, the easy, most obvious one is usually correct.

Fact, for eight years Matt Ryan has been considered by pretty much everyone but Swift as being an above average to elite QB, who can view the field, react to defenses, run play action very well, is effective down field, distributes the ball well, expertly runs the no huddle, has a very fast release and is an accurate passer. He lacks physical tools to be a mobile or running QB and needs some support, like most drop back passers, such as a very good WR or running game.

Shanahan has not been with a single team more than what 3 years? Runs a West Coast hybrid offense that tends to pass first to establish the run, relies on a mobile QB with physical tools, dictates that the QB react and not read the defense, force the ball to covered targets and generally slows the game down (no no-huddle) to help the play action game. Generally, everything that Matt Ryan has not done in the past 8 years and oh yeah, he really doesn't have the tools to do.

I don't think Ryan is going to succeed in this offense. I don't think he has the tools and at this point Atlanta needs to make a choice. Keep the OC philosophy and get a QB who is mobile and can run the WC offense, or change the OC philosophy to more of a traditional read and react offense. Until then we are going to be looking at a train wreck. If you want someone to blame, blame TD, Quinn and Blank. If we keep Shanahan and his philosophy, just remember this. He refused to adapt his offense when he had a well above average to elite QB, in his prime, that was not hurt and ruined the offense. Do you really want someone like that around.

And for those who think that Ryan should be able to change his "style". Really??? Tell me one athlete that was able to change their athletic "style" and be successful. Just one?

[Andras]

NB4 "But yards!"

[Godzilla1985]

That makes too much sense and contradicts all the people on here that have hated Ryan since 08. The only thing that changed this year was bringing in a cancerous spoiled brat OC that refuses to adapt to the talent around him YET folks put it all on Ryan.

.

[schwarzenegger321]

Hey, Ryan is totally at fault for the problems. I think he knows this. He does not have the skills to run this offense. Now the root cause is an OC that refuses to play to his teams strengths. Ryan can take this team to the SB, but he is either going to get hurt or "broke". The team needs to change this now!

Best thing that can happen to this offense. Fire Shanahan and hope that Payton is fired from NO and we pick him up as our OC. Superbowl that year if it happens.

[paulitik]

I don't think it's an issue about "the tools". 80%-90% of it's working fine. We're moving down the field. It's the 10% that's the redzone issues, and the dumb mistakes.

It's an adjustment. For Matt and Shanahan.

Matt needs time to acclimate, focus, and correct his mistakes, and Shanahan needs to adjust and tweak the scheme to be less predictable, and give Matt more options. More options to audible, to use the no-huddle, and design plays that have more fallbacks when the first progression is taken away.

We had 21 dropped passes before Sunday. Hankerson was dropping 17% of the passes thrown his way. despite that and the INTs, Matt is throwing at a 64% completion rate.

I think these mistakes are making things look worse than they are. Losing does that.

[schwarzenegger321]

Paulitik, I agree Matt is a read the defense and react at the line, go through a progression type of passer. The WCO forces you into situations where you don't think, you just do. I don't know if Matt can play like that. It's kind of like some RB's are down hill runners and some are more scatter backs. You can't change that. Matt has to read and adjust. The WCO just says do! Not to mention that all of our routes are predictable and Matt can do nothing to change that. It's all on the OC.

[Leggggggo]

Between Occam and Murphy affecting the Falcons and Pascals affecting the fans, as a collective, we are done for the 2015!

Nice Post OP. It's been what I've been talking about up here in Richmond with the few Falcons fans I have around me!

[Rohn]

The only solution is fire Shanahan.

QB killer McNabb, Hoyer, RG111, Schaub and now Ryan.

[TheFatboi]

Paulitik, I agree Matt is a read the defense and react at the line, go through a progression type of passer. The WCO forces you into situations where you don't think, you just do. I don't know if Matt can play like that. It's kind of like some RB's are down hill runners and some are more scatter backs. You can't change that. Matt has to read and adjust. The WCO just says do! Not to mention that all of our routes are predictable and Matt can do nothing to change that. It's all on the OC.

It's really no different. Matt has always known where to go with the ball at the line pre snap read. The only real difference is concepts and technique. Running more rollout plays etc...If Matt got a look pre snap with whoever the OC was he went where the look dictated. Forcing the ball somewhere is completely on him and not the system ie bad decision making.

The main issue Matt has had this season is being uncharacteristiclly inaccurate in an offense that needs precision and making bad decisions. It's not a tool issue because he has all that. It's simply learning a new system. Not only him but receivers too. Timing is not always on point and the receivers have been having a tough time with man coverage. And then whenever Matt makes a good decision he gets no help like Coleman dropping a bomb Sunday.

To me he just looks like a super rookie right now. The mistakes he's making are rookie like but that also goes with learning a new system for any rookie. He's always had red zone issues except we would settle for fg's instead of red zone int's. Many of these issues have been there with Matt but were overshadowed by winning but theyve actually been sticking out like a sore thumb for the last 3 seasons even tho his numbers were decent. The difference in numbers is he's not in the 2:1 td to int ratio he normally is in.

[FalconFanSince1970]

I ain't buying it. Ryan was fine in this offense the first five games. Something happened in the next six. Either he got hurt, lost his mechanics, defenses adjusted or the play calling changed. Or some combination thereof. Whatever it was it needs to get fixed yesterday.

[4dabirds]

Occam's razor, simply put, states that when there are a number of potential complex solutions, the easy, most obvious one is usually correct. Fact, for eight years Matt Ryan has been considered by pretty much everyone but Swift as being an above average to elite QB, who can view the field, react to defenses, run play action very well, is effective down field, distributes the ball well, expertly runs the no huddle, has a very fast release and is an accurate passer. He lacks physical tools to be a mobile or running QB and needs some support, like most drop back passers, such as a very good WR or running game. Shanahan has not been with a single team more than what 3 years? Runs a West Coast hybrid offense that tends to pass first to establish the run, relies on a mobile QB with physical tools, dictates that the QB react and not read the defense, force the ball to covered targets and generally slows the game down (no no-huddle) to help the play action game. Generally, everything that Matt Ryan has not done in the past 8 years and oh yeah, he really doesn't have the tools to do. I don't think Ryan is going to succeed in this offense. I don't think he has the tools and at this point Atlanta needs to make a choice. Keep the OC philosophy and get a QB who is mobile and can run the WC offense, or change the OC philosophy to more of a traditional read and react offense. Until then we are going to be looking at a train wreck. If you want someone to blame, blame TD, Quinn and Blank. If we keep Shanahan and his philosophy, just remember this. He refused to adapt his offense when he had a well above average to elite QB, in his prime, that was not hurt and ruined the offense. Do you really want someone like that around. And for those who think that Ryan should be able to change his "style". Really??? Tell me one athlete that was able to change their athletic "style" and be successful. Just one?

Sounds like a good assessment to me. I'd be all for getting rid of Shanny...He doesn't fit here. The offense does not look fluid at all.

[Leggggggo]

I ain't buying it. Ryan was fine in this offense the first five games. Something happened in the next six. Either he got hurt, lost his mechanics, defenses adjusted or the play calling changed. Or some combination thereof. Whatever it was it needs to get fixed yesterday.

I still say he wasn't fine. He was more effective, but he didn't distribute the ball at all. He looked hurried if Julio wasn't open and typically just dumped to Freeman. Generally he didn't look comfortable, like I had been used to seeing at least, from my vantage point. But yes, he was more productive.

[schwarzenegger321]

TheFatboi, I have to disagree. With the past two offenses, Matt is able to see where the safeties are lining up and the leverage that the CB's have and adjust at the line. The adjustment might be a different progression of reads. With Shanahan's offense there is a predictable progression and everyone is figuring it out. With the WCO, you take a certain number of steps and throw. There is very little time to read anything since the entire offense is timing based. Often you force the ball and then maybe go to your second read, but you don't progress through the receiver's like you do with a true drop back offense. Matt just isn't able to do this. This just isn't me saying this. There has been dozens of articles regarding the WCO and how Shanahan runs his version. I just don't think Matt has the tools to run this offense correctly. I think that is what the data is showing (lost games and turn-overs). The offense as a whole is not playing well, but Matt is not able to pick up the slack or carry the offense like he has in the past.

[TheFatboi]

The only solution is fire Shanahan.QB killer McNabb, Hoyer, RG111, Schaub and now Ryan.

Hoyer got hurt with shannahan and was having a great year and probably would've had Cleveland in the playoffs, McNabb was already done, Shannahan was gone 4 years before schaub got released in houston and RG3 got hurt and kept coming back too soon. Ryan is making bad decisions.

[schwarzenegger321]

FalconFanSince1970, there was no tape on the Falcons the first few games. No one knew the route progression or how Ryan would react. Now, as has been stated by the Falcon's players, the competition, the media and the "experts, everyone knows what's coming. The thing that has changed is time and experience other teams have on us. Boil it all down and the WCO is simply a short yardage passing offense that reacts to what the defense gives the offense. Defenses know this, read it at the snap and adjust on the ball. Our offense is designed to run timing plays with no thought involved. It's not working.

[TheFatboi]

I ain't buying it. Ryan was fine in this offense the first five games. Something happened in the next six. Either he got hurt, lost his mechanics, defenses adjusted or the play calling changed. Or some combination thereof. Whatever it was it needs to get fixed yesterday.

I agree. He was still turning the ball over from game 1 but he was making better decisions. On top of that he was under center more when the season started. He's been in gun much more since then.

[etherdome]

I want to point out that Matt Ryan has not been a top notch accurate passer. His passes often sail.....that is why the team strongly favors taller receivers.

That being said, Matt needs to work on his footwork. At the end of the season, he needs to decide whether he wants to continue with the version of the WCO. My guess is that he will want to stay the course.

[4dabirds]

I ain't buying it. Ryan was fine in this offense the first five games. Something happened in the next six. Either he got hurt, lost his mechanics, defenses adjusted or the play calling changed. Or some combination thereof. Whatever it was it needs to get fixed yesterday.

Teams have found away to slow down Julio and contain him from getting big chunks of yards while getting pressure on an OL that is not very good at pass protection. Too many 3 and outs, too many dropped passes, throwing in the middle of the field while in the red zone instead of working the sidelines, and not enough running in key situations. The Falcons offensive scheme does not try to work to it's strength, more as it is predicated on everyone doing there job at a high level for it to work IMO, and the offense is lacking in too many areas for the scheme to be effective. Teams have figured out what the offense is doing, either that or Ryan and others are on the downsides of their careers and are not able to work within the system. There's a reason why Shanahan keeps getting the boot, and it will be the same reason he gets the boot here.

[schwarzenegger321]

And teams that have had success with the WCO, everyone of them, had a QB who could run and extend plays. They might not have been a "running" threat, but would buy and extra three or four seconds out of the pocket and cause the defense to be out of position. Ryan cannot do that.

[Andras]

And teams that have had success with the WCO, everyone of them, had a QB who could run and extend plays. They might not have been a "running" threat, but would buy and extra three or four seconds out of the pocket and cause the defense to be out of position. Ryan cannot do that.

Not only can he not be that type of QB, I don't think Blank, as a business man AND having been through the Vick years, enjoys the idea of having your franchise QB running around and potentially taking hits.

[TheFatboi]

TheFatboi, I have to disagree. With the past two offenses, Matt is able to see where the safeties are lining up and the leverage that the CB's have and adjust at the line. The adjustment might be a different progression of reads. With Shanahan's offense there is a predictable progression and everyone is figuring it out. With the WCO, you take a certain number of steps and throw. There is very little time to read anything since the entire offense is timing based. Often you force the ball and then maybe go to your second read, but you don't progress through the receiver's like you do with a true drop back offense. Matt just isn't able to do this. This just isn't me saying this. There has been dozens of articles regarding the WCO and how Shanahan runs his version. I just don't think Matt has the tools to run this offense correctly. I think that is what the data is showing (lost games and turn-overs). The offense as a whole is not playing well, but Matt is not able to pick up the slack or carry the offense like he has in the past.

You can still see where the safties are lining up. That's partly how decisions are being made. What thing Matt has to start doing is get the defense to show its hand with hard counts, catch them off guard with quick snaps or silent snaps instead of letting the clock tick down to 1 second. That's predictability at its finest fir a defense and because of it they are holding their looks UNTIL the last second. Julio has already said this. Once that happens the pre snap read is out the window and it confuses Matt. Aaron Rodgers uses a VICIOUS hard count that usually gets the defense to tip their hand. It's little nuances that can be done. And it's not like Matt can't call audibles because he does and is.

[DMT11]

Remember Blank and all also wanted to be more agggressive on the offense - ryan wanted it too - he had several interviews in the off season talking about how we are going to do some things we wouldnt do before and I quote " push the envelope" which they have done, by bringing in shanny - its not like its not known how hard it is to pull off his system througout a whole year, its been an issue everywhere - was also an issue with his Dads/kubiaks without very stout Olines and running games. Really to run this O correct - you should have those things first. Then the passing part comes after - not a secret.

But Falcons wanted to try this, if Ryan is just unable to do it and they dont get it worked out - pretty sure there we will be plenty of coordinators or more traditional stuff we can go back too, but its not Shannys fault of forcing it - Blank and CO wanted to try and go this route. So far its not working - but to them, its not working because of turnovers and they obviously feel that they are close to getting it ironed out.

We shall see - Ryan is what he is, hes enough to go to the bowl, given the team plays like a godman team. Thats been our issue for the last 50 years.

[capologist]

The only solution is fire Shanahan. QB killer McNabb, Hoyer, RG111, Schaub and now Ryan.

QB killer? How did you post that list of names with a straight face?

McNabb - Was already dead which is why Philly had the good sense to let him go.

Hoyer - A never was who looked competent under KS.

RGIII - Was ROY under KS and now can't even make an active roster under Gruden and all his guruness

Schaub - Yeah, ok, I'm in tears over here laughing.

[schwarzenegger321]

TheFatboi, I agree there are some things we can do and that Ryan can do to get better. I'm just not sure it is enough to be good again. With the WCO if say the play is to your #1 receiver and the CB has outside leverage the progression might be to run a 3 yard slant instead of an out, no matter where the safeties are or if your #2 WR is one on one. Everything from the blocking to the steps the QB takes before the ball is thrown is dictated by the play. Ball snap, three or five steps, throw. Unless there is a defender at the exact spot you are going to throw, you make the throw. If there is you reset and immediately throw to number 2.

[DMT11]

When Quinn keeps saying we brought in Kyle because his offense if very hard to defend against, is very true - the part he left out is, IF you can execute properly it is then very very hard to defend. That can be said of many offenses now in the NFL though - so not sure we needed to go this route - probably trying to do too much with what we had.