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Good Sbnation Article On Dan Quinn's (Terrible) Fg Decision

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A snippet from the article; I'm having trouble pasting the entire thing from work:

"If you don't know how to read that: Going for it gave the Falcons a 53 percent chance at winning. They had a 42 percent chance at making it, which would've resulted in a 78 percent chance at a win, and a 58 percent chance at missing.

But even if they missed, they would've given the 49ers the ball pinned on their own 2-yard-line, potentially leading to a safety and the ball back, a defensive touchdown, or a blocked punt for a safety or a touchdown. And even if none of those happened, the Falcons still could've gotten the ball back in good field position after a punt from the two. In the likelihood that they didn't get the TD, they still would've had a 35 percent chance at winning.

Actually making the field goal meant the 49ers were getting the ball back in much better field position, still with a lead. Making the field goal gave the Falcons just a 17 percent chance at winning. Simply attempting this field goal hurt the Falcons' chance at winning by 36 percent. They would've been better off getting zero points and keeping the field position.

If you think it's foolish to just run off what one set of numbers says, most win probability formulas would agree. Numberfire says the made FG dinged Atlanta's win probability by over 40 percent: They had a 50.48 chance of winning beforehand, and a 9.14 percent chance afterwards."

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This has been posted already. It's the 'Dan Quinn' shouldn't have kicked a FG because if they didn't convert on a TD, the defense that didn't stop the 49ers would stop the 49ers'. article, right.

If the defense couldn't stop the 49ers, then why kick a FG and force the defense to stop the 49ers with good field position? defense has a better chance stopping at the 1 than they do at the 20.

Edited by likeriver
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Quinn is either dumber than I thought or he lacks the manhood to admit that decision was a mistake. Not only a horrible mistake, but was a total capitulation of his eternal admonition to FINISH! Be aggressive! that he's always telling the media is his mantra. You have one of the top offenses in the league and you kick a FG at the 2 yard line with time running out and only a couple of TO's? But Quinn was telling the media today "(that call) was only questionable because it didn't work." No Danny boy, it was questionable because it went against everything you supposedly stand for, it was a slap in the face to one of the top-rated offensive units in the league and it was also just dumb to give up the ball and hope you'll get it back when you had the ball and had a great chance to score and end all the non-sense. Come down off your high horse when you screw up and admit it when you blow it, Quinn. You won't look any smarter, but you might save some respect and credibility.

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It actually wasn't on the first page, so I missed this given the thread title not being so obvious. Sorry I'm not on the boards 24/7 to read every single topic.

Mods, please merge or delete, thanks.

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