2015-2016 Atlanta Braves Off-Season Thread

[Psychic Gibbon]

I am fond of Cunningham as well. Hate to see him go. At his cost, idk if we can find a better guy to fill a spt nunbered 22-25 next year.

With Markakis, Maybin, Bourn, and Swisher they're going into next season with four OF on the roster with Mallex Smith most likely starting in AAA as the #5 reserve until he is ready. They may also sign or trade for someone to play LF which would further push Cunningham down the pecking order.

[Dawggone]

With Markakis, Maybin, Bourn, and Swisher they're going into next season with four OF on the roster with Mallex Smith most likely starting in AAA as the #5 reserve until he is ready. They may also sign or trade for someone to play LF which would further push Cunningham down the pecking order.

Well here is were I may disagree with some. I believe, especially by next year, that TC may be better than Bourne and/or Swisher. And is much cheaper. However, I also understand they probably arent going anywhere due to their contracts, etc.

[Psychic Gibbon]

Well here is were I may disagree with some. I believe, especially by next year, that TC may be better than Bourne and/or Swisher. And is much cheaper. However, I also understand they probably arent going anywhere due to their contracts, etc.

I'm not going to argue that, but as you say Swisher and Bourn aren't going anywhere. It also doesn't help his case that a much better prospect is close to being ready.

[Dawggone]

I'm not going to argue that, but as you say Swisher and Bourn aren't going anywhere. It also doesn't help his case that a much better prospect is close to being ready.

Dont want to make anyone think Im not a fan of Smith. Id be extremely happy with a couple of high OBP base stealers. Not that its applicable to but I grew up in the eighties and the St. Louis offense and loved all the speed. And when I played that was my game. As much as I wanted to, I had zero power, it was get on base and run.

[Falconsfan567]

Dont want to make anyone think Im not a fan of Smith. Id be extremely happy with a couple of high OBP base stealers. Not that its applicable to but I grew up in the eighties and the St. Louis offense and loved all the speed. And when I played that was my game. As much as I wanted to, I had zero power, it was get on base and run.

Yep. That's the type of baseball I love as well. Deion Sanders, Otis Nixon, Marquis Grissom, Rafael Furcal. Those are my kind of players. Sprinkle in a Ron Gant type (who does both) with a Chipper and Justice and you've got the makings of a very powerful offense.

[K26dp]

There was absolutely no reason for you to get snippy about it. For some reason you've appear to be more on edge lately.

Perhaps it's my coffee?

[Dawggone]

Perhaps it's my coffee?

Mine soothes my soul

[K26dp]

I am fond of Cunningham as well. Hate to see him go. At his cost, idk if we can find a better guy to fill a spt nunbered 22-25 next year.

I like Cunningham, he plays hard, doesn't give away at-bats, and has a fine glove.

BUT... we have a large enough sample of his work in AAA and the majors to see that he's just not that great of a player. He might be better than Bourn at this point, but it's close. If we needed the roster spot, I have no doubt Atlanta would cut Bourn and not look back. There are guys everywhere than can approximate their production.

[Unknøwn]

DOB says no teams with open managerial jobs are calling about TP or Perez. Porter is the only coach drawing interest.

[Psychic Gibbon]

DOB says no teams with open managerial jobs are calling about TP or Perez. Porter is the only coach drawing interest.

I'm more concerned that someone will poach Snitker.

[AEFalcon]

2016 MLB draft date: starts Thurs 09 Jun 16

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mlb-draft-moves-back-thursday-2016/

[Ransack]

Braves hire Ted Simmons into front office

By Ivan the Great on Oct 12, 2015, 2:33p 6

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Per Bob Nightengale, the Braves have hired long-time baseball player and executive Ted Simmons as Special Assistant to the General Manager.

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Earlier this morning, Bob Nightengale reported that the Braves have hired Ted Simmons as Special Assistant to General Manager John Copollela.

The Atlanta #Braves make brilliant hire: Name Ted Simmons as special assistant to GM

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale)

October 12, 2015

Simmons has a long and storied history as a player - he was an 8-time All-Star and pulled down a Silver Slugger as part of a 20-year MLB career as a catcher. He played his last three seasons (1986-1988) as a Brave, mostly as a bench player who filled in at catcher, first base, and third base. While it's hard to assess defensive value for catchers, and moreso for the pre-metrics days, Simmons is still currently in the top 10 for catcher value by fWAR.

More salient to the present news is Simmons' career as a baseball executive. Less than a half-decade after his retirement, Simmons was named General Manager of the Pirates. While he would last only about a year in the position (he suffered a heart attack in 1993 and resigned), he was notable for orchestrating the deal that would have sent Barry Bonds to the Braves in his first few months on the job... at least until ownership and his own manager, Jim Leyland, nixed the deal. (Side note: if Bonds became a Brave, I doubt I'd ever have been a Braves fan.)

Since that point, Simmons has bounced around major league front offices, serving as Director of Player Development with the Cardinals and Padres, a scout with the Indians, and a front office functionary with the Brewers. He also got some dugout time in 2009 with the Padres and 2010 for Milwaukee as a bench coach.

Mostly recently, he was a senior advisor to Jack Zduriencik of the Mariners, who was recently relieved of his duties. While the impact of such positions is never clear and hard to differentiate among the various voices in a front office, the postmortems on Jack Z's tenure in Seattle have not been particularly kind. Still, at least Nightengale seems pleased with this move, and Simmons certainly has a wealth of baseball experience to draw on. We'll keep you updated if any additional information about Simmons' role and focus comes to light.

[K26dp]

Cautiously optimistic, at least he is someone from outside the organization.

[Unknøwn]

Mark Bowman said Simmons will be a scout

[K26dp]

Kiley McDaniel, lead prospect analyst for Fangraphs, is leaving the site to take a position with the Braves as Assistant Director of Baseball Operations.

See his announcement here.

Personally, happy for the Braves, but he was my favorite prospects analyst out there (along with Ben Badler of Baseball America), so kind of bummed that we won't get the benefit of his outstanding (and free) analysis.

[Psychic Gibbon]

Kiley McDaniel, lead prospect analyst for Fangraphs, is leaving the site to take a position with the Braves as Assistant Director of Baseball Operations.

See his announcement here.

Personally, happy for the Braves, but he was my favorite prospects analyst out there (along with Ben Badler of Baseball America), so kind of bummed that we won't get the benefit of his outstanding (and free) analysis.

YES! I especially love the message this sends about how they're going to go about building this team and system.

[Falconsfan567]

That is great news!!!

[Ransack]

I'd like to see how much payroll the Braves have added to the front office.

[Falconsfan567]

As the Braves remake their player personnel asset base, the team continues to make changes in other areas. Atlanta recently announced the hiring of Ted Simmons, Matt Kinzer, and Leon Wurth as MLB scouts. Simmons, an outstanding catcher in his playing days, recently served as a special assistant to the GM with the Mariners. Kinzer was an important Marlins scout, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today notes on Twitter, while Wurth recently finished a 13-year run with the Brewers. Also joining the Braves is former Fangraphs prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel, who’ll become the team’s assistant director of baseball operations.

[Monteg1026]

I got a question do we have prospect named Maine

[Falconsfan567]

Extension Candidate: Shelby Miller

By Mark Polishuk |

October 18, 2015 at 10:06pm CDT

Signing young players to extensions has been the backbone of John Hart’s long career as a baseball executive. Since taking over the Braves last year, Hart has primarily focused on acquiring new young talent for the rebuilding club rather than locking up existing players. Now that some new pieces are in place, though, Hart and GM John Coppolella will surely look into extending some players that project to be part of the next Braves winning team.

Shelby Miller may well be at the front of that list, as the right-hander is coming off a very solid (albeit unusual) 2015 season. Miller posted a 3.02 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 2.34 K/BB rate in his first year in Atlanta, tossing a career-high 205 1/3 innings and reaching his first All-Star team. Unfortunately for Miller, these numbers didn’t translate into many wins since he received a near-record low amount of run support (2.64 runs per game) from the anemic Braves offense. This lack of support culminated in an astounding 24-start winless stretch that saw Miller go 0-16 despite a solid 3.83 ERA over that stretch.

While “baseball card stats” are a big part of the arbitration process, Miller’s rough 6-17 record shouldn’t hurt him too much as he enters his first year of eligibility this offseason. MLB Trade Rumors projects Miller will earn a healthy $4.9MM salary in 2016, and the Braves could look to get some cost certainty over Miller’s two arb years and possibly even a free agent year or two.

A note about that $4.9MM figure: it would actually set a new record for a starting pitcher in his first year of arbitration eligibility, topping Dontrelle Willis‘ $4.35MM figure from 2006. Last year, Matt Swartzwrote about how that $4.35MM record has somewhat unexpectedly stood the test of time, though MLBTR’s projections have three pitchers beating the mark this winter — Matt Harvey at $4.7MM, Miller at $4.9MM and Dallas Keuchel at $6.4MM.

As we see from the MLBTR Extension Tracker, four starters with 3+ years of service time have signed extensions since the end of the 2012 season. (I feel comfortable cutting it off there since Kyle Kendrick and Clayton Kershaw aren’t ideal comparables as, respectively, a Super Two player and a reigning Cy Young Award winner.) Let’s see how Miller compares to these four pitchers using extension size, their MLBTR arbitration projection, notable stats and ERA predictors…

Mat Latos: Two years/$11.5MM before age-25 season, $4.6MM arbitration projection. 639 IP, 3.41 ERA, 8.42 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 43.7% ground ball rate, 11.5 fWAR (3.47 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 3.59 SIERA)

Wade Miley: Three years/$19.25MM (with $12MM option for 2018) before age-28 season, $4.3MM projection. 638 2/3 IP, 3.79 ERA, 7.03 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 48.6% ground ball rate, 7.4 fWAR (3.80 FIP, 3.72 xFIP, 3.90 SIERA)

Lance Lynn: Three years/$22MM before age-28 season, $5.4MM projection but it was an unusual situation, as noted earlier in Matt Swartz’s piece. 616 IP, 3.46 ERA, 8.75 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 44.4% ground ball rate, 10.5 fWAR (3.34 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 3.65 SIERA)

Miller: Heading into age-25 season, $4.9MM projection. 575 1/3 IP, 3.22 ERA, 7.56 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, 42.3% ground ball rate, 6.9 fWAR (3.82 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, 4.16 SIERA)

Jhoulys Chacin: Two years/$6.5MM before age-25 season, $1.6MM projection. 411 1/3 IP, 3.68 ERA, 7.57 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, 49.7% ground ball rate, 5.0 fWAR (4.17 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA)

Miller just turned 25 last week, putting him in the Latos/Chacin age bracket. Miller is clearly a step behind Latos and Lynn WAR-wise (they have an edge in strikeouts and innings) and you can make a case that Miley was also a better pitcher than Miller at this stage of both pitchers’ careers.

Since Miller is three years younger than Lynn and Miley were at the time of their extensions, however, his ultimate price tag is going to be bigger. If he keeps up his current form through his arbitration years, hitting the open market as a durable and productive 28-year-old arm could mean something in the range of five (or even six) years in the $85MM range.

With this in mind, would Miller even be interested in an extension? He already banked one nice payday when he signed for a $2.875MM bonus with the Cardinals after being drafted in 2009, and he’ll earn something in that $4.9MM range next year. Miller is on pace to get healthy raises in his final two arbitration years anyway, so he could very well decide to bet on himself with an eye towards free agency and avoid a long-term commitment. If the CAA client betters his current form and makes the leap from very good pitcher to full-blown ace, Miller would be costing himself some money by locking himself into an extension now.

The Braves would have to make it worth Miller’s while, therefore, for him to sign away one or two of his free agent years. A straight club option for 2019 likely wouldn’t be enough unless it had an easily-reachable vesting option. Corey Kluber‘s extension with the Indians could be a model in this regard. The two club option years that cover what would’ve been Kluber’s first two free agent seasons can rise in value by up to $4MM based on performance escalators, turning a potential extra $27.5MM for Kluber into as much as $35.5MM over those two seasons.

Lynn’s extension paid him $7MM in 2015 and he’s owed $7.5MM in each of the next two years, while Miley’s deal escalated from $4MM last season to $6MM in 2016 and $8.75MM in 2017. If we mark Miller for $4.9MM this season, it would make sense for Atlanta to boost his salary in 2016-17 once Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn are (in all likelihood) fully off the books. So at something like $4.9MM in 2016, $7.4MM in 2017 and $9.5MM in 2018, that gets Miler to $21.8MM over three years. If there’s a 2019 club option, I would guess it would have to be in the $13MM range and, like Kluber’s contract, subject to rise via escalator bonuses.

Unlike Keuchel and Harvey (his fellow would-be arbitration record-breakers), Miller hasn’t quite shown that he’s a frontline ace. Don’t forget, however, that Miller is just a few years removed from being a consensus top-10 prospect, so it’s very possible that his best is yet to come. Even at Miller’s current level of production, a four-year deal that could max out in the $38-$39MM ballpark isn’t a bad price to pay for a 25-year-old who’s averaged 187 innings a year since 2013. It could end up being yet another canny John Hart extension if and when the Braves begin to turn things around.

[usmcdirtybird]

Extension Candidate: Shelby Miller

By Mark Polishuk |

October 18, 2015 at 10:06pm CDT

Signing young players to extensions has been the backbone of John Hart’s long career as a baseball executive. Since taking over the Braves last year, Hart has primarily focused on acquiring new young talent for the rebuilding club rather than locking up existing players. Now that some new pieces are in place, though, Hart and GM John Coppolella will surely look into extending some players that project to be part of the next Braves winning team.

Shelby Miller may well be at the front of that list, as the right-hander is coming off a very solid (albeit unusual) 2015 season. Miller posted a 3.02 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 2.34 K/BB rate in his first year in Atlanta, tossing a career-high 205 1/3 innings and reaching his first All-Star team. Unfortunately for Miller, these numbers didn’t translate into many wins since he received a near-record low amount of run support (2.64 runs per game) from the anemic Braves offense. This lack of support culminated in an astounding 24-start winless stretch that saw Miller go 0-16 despite a solid 3.83 ERA over that stretch.

While “baseball card stats” are a big part of the arbitration process, Miller’s rough 6-17 record shouldn’t hurt him too much as he enters his first year of eligibility this offseason. MLB Trade Rumors projects Miller will earn a healthy $4.9MM salary in 2016, and the Braves could look to get some cost certainty over Miller’s two arb years and possibly even a free agent year or two.

A note about that $4.9MM figure: it would actually set a new record for a starting pitcher in his first year of arbitration eligibility, topping Dontrelle Willis‘ $4.35MM figure from 2006. Last year, Matt Swartzwrote about how that $4.35MM record has somewhat unexpectedly stood the test of time, though MLBTR’s projections have three pitchers beating the mark this winter — Matt Harvey at $4.7MM, Miller at $4.9MM and Dallas Keuchel at $6.4MM.

As we see from the MLBTR Extension Tracker, four starters with 3+ years of service time have signed extensions since the end of the 2012 season. (I feel comfortable cutting it off there since Kyle Kendrick and Clayton Kershaw aren’t ideal comparables as, respectively, a Super Two player and a reigning Cy Young Award winner.) Let’s see how Miller compares to these four pitchers using extension size, their MLBTR arbitration projection, notable stats and ERA predictors…

Mat Latos: Two years/$11.5MM before age-25 season, $4.6MM arbitration projection. 639 IP, 3.41 ERA, 8.42 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 43.7% ground ball rate, 11.5 fWAR (3.47 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 3.59 SIERA)

Wade Miley: Three years/$19.25MM (with $12MM option for 2018) before age-28 season, $4.3MM projection. 638 2/3 IP, 3.79 ERA, 7.03 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 48.6% ground ball rate, 7.4 fWAR (3.80 FIP, 3.72 xFIP, 3.90 SIERA)

Lance Lynn: Three years/$22MM before age-28 season, $5.4MM projection but it was an unusual situation, as noted earlier in Matt Swartz’s piece. 616 IP, 3.46 ERA, 8.75 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 44.4% ground ball rate, 10.5 fWAR (3.34 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 3.65 SIERA)

Miller: Heading into age-25 season, $4.9MM projection. 575 1/3 IP, 3.22 ERA, 7.56 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, 42.3% ground ball rate, 6.9 fWAR (3.82 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, 4.16 SIERA)

Jhoulys Chacin: Two years/$6.5MM before age-25 season, $1.6MM projection. 411 1/3 IP, 3.68 ERA, 7.57 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, 49.7% ground ball rate, 5.0 fWAR (4.17 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA)

Miller just turned 25 last week, putting him in the Latos/Chacin age bracket. Miller is clearly a step behind Latos and Lynn WAR-wise (they have an edge in strikeouts and innings) and you can make a case that Miley was also a better pitcher than Miller at this stage of both pitchers’ careers.

Since Miller is three years younger than Lynn and Miley were at the time of their extensions, however, his ultimate price tag is going to be bigger. If he keeps up his current form through his arbitration years, hitting the open market as a durable and productive 28-year-old arm could mean something in the range of five (or even six) years in the $85MM range.

With this in mind, would Miller even be interested in an extension? He already banked one nice payday when he signed for a $2.875MM bonus with the Cardinals after being drafted in 2009, and he’ll earn something in that $4.9MM range next year. Miller is on pace to get healthy raises in his final two arbitration years anyway, so he could very well decide to bet on himself with an eye towards free agency and avoid a long-term commitment. If the CAA client betters his current form and makes the leap from very good pitcher to full-blown ace, Miller would be costing himself some money by locking himself into an extension now.

The Braves would have to make it worth Miller’s while, therefore, for him to sign away one or two of his free agent years. A straight club option for 2019 likely wouldn’t be enough unless it had an easily-reachable vesting option. Corey Kluber‘s extension with the Indians could be a model in this regard. The two club option years that cover what would’ve been Kluber’s first two free agent seasons can rise in value by up to $4MM based on performance escalators, turning a potential extra $27.5MM for Kluber into as much as $35.5MM over those two seasons.

Lynn’s extension paid him $7MM in 2015 and he’s owed $7.5MM in each of the next two years, while Miley’s deal escalated from $4MM last season to $6MM in 2016 and $8.75MM in 2017. If we mark Miller for $4.9MM this season, it would make sense for Atlanta to boost his salary in 2016-17 once Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn are (in all likelihood) fully off the books. So at something like $4.9MM in 2016, $7.4MM in 2017 and $9.5MM in 2018, that gets Miler to $21.8MM over three years. If there’s a 2019 club option, I would guess it would have to be in the $13MM range and, like Kluber’s contract, subject to rise via escalator bonuses.

Unlike Keuchel and Harvey (his fellow would-be arbitration record-breakers), Miller hasn’t quite shown that he’s a frontline ace. Don’t forget, however, that Miller is just a few years removed from being a consensus top-10 prospect, so it’s very possible that his best is yet to come. Even at Miller’s current level of production, a four-year deal that could max out in the $38-$39MM ballpark isn’t a bad price to pay for a 25-year-old who’s averaged 187 innings a year since 2013. It could end up being yet another canny John Hart extension if and when the Braves begin to turn things around.

If they lock him up then that is 2 major pieces of our rotation locked up.

[Falconsfan567]

I think they will lock him up long-term. I doubt they want to deal with the arbitration numbers he's gonna rack him if he continues to pitch like he did this year and the 2nd half of last year with the Cardinals.

[Born Again Georgian]

I hope we keep Miller for a long time, love that dude.

[Positive Thinker]

Way to take my post totally out of context. You sure you don't work for ESPN?

He is a pompous jerk. He knows a lot but uses that to belittle those not at his level. I'm with you on this one.