Dfs Breakdown Falcons Vs. Rbs

[falcndave]

Here is another reason not to sleep on the Texans. Our defense vs. RBs (not just the rush).

Our defense has played one stellar half against Running Backs. Outside of that, it is been a nightmare. I have been doing my DFS research this AM. For those of you into DFS, there is one defense that stands out as an obvious "chalk" choice to pick on with RBs this week. That would be the Falcons.

1. We have given up 2.0 Rushing TDs per game...the only team to do so.
2. Average rushing yards, we are doing better. We are 13th best in the league given up only 95.7 yards.
3. Since this post is primarily about DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports), we have given up 47.37 DK (Draft Kings) fantasy points to RB this season. That would be almost 14 points higher that the next worst team, which is STL at 33.9.
4. Opponents RB are targeted with passes 13.3 times per game pulling, on average, 12 of those targets for completions. 12 of 13 means...well, we are not good at covering RBs.
5. Opponents RBs are averaging 105 yards per game catching. If you think that may be because our scheme allows underneath throws, another team with the same scheme (Seattle) has given up 3 catches for 32 yards this season. Yes the NFC East uses their RBs to cover up for inadequacies at WR, but still, the numbers are just silly. The Giants have played only NFC East offenses and are giving up 9.3 completions for 83 yards. They are second worst to us, but significantly better with 2 common opponents.
6. So, on average, we give up 200.7 yards a game to opposing RBs (sum of rushing and receiving).

If Adrian Foster plays, the above stats should be good indicators. Mallett hasn't made a name for himself airing the ball out to WRs. If Blue is the RB, we should fair better. He is not the receiving threat that Foster is.

Also, I wonder if Brooks Reed will improve our ability to cover RBs? I don't hate Bierman like the rest of you, but I'm tired of seeing him trailing RBs and TEs. I pretty much just like to see him as an extra edge rusher.

[falcndave]

BTW, here is a decent site that breaks down some of the stats I used above. I also just Roto Grinders.

TeamRankings.com

[ATLFalcons11]

A few things:

1. We gave up 4 of those 6 touchdowns in the first half of last game. While you say we were stellar in run defense for one half, it's the exact opposite. We were lacking in run defense in one half of one game and the rest we were dominating.

2. Our scheme absolutely allows for underneath passes and because we don't have the same defenders as Seattle we are covering the middle of the field more than they are.

3. So if you're only concerned with DFS, then you will be fine getting a few points picking a receiving back but if you're banking on them getting touchdowns, then you are being fooled by one bad half as opposed to 6 great ones.

[HEIST]

If Foster plays he's a roster lock. If not.. ehh.

I did start Dunbar vs us though.

[MD-FalconFan13]

A few things:

1. We gave up 4 of those 6 touchdowns in the first half of last game. While you say we were stellar in run defense for one half, it's the exact opposite. We were lacking in run defense in one half of one game and the rest we were dominating.

2. Our scheme absolutely allows for underneath passes and because we don't have the same defenders as Seattle we are covering the middle of the field more than they are.

3. So if you're only concerned with DFS, then you will be fine getting a few points picking a receiving back but if you're banking on them getting touchdowns, then you are being fooled by one bad half as opposed to 6 great ones.

Exactly.

These stat gurus fail to take reality into question. We had one half of horrible run defense. If not for that we'd likely be top 10 in run defense. Moreover 6 rushing TDs is not accounting for 4 coming in the last game.

[Tandy]

Here is another reason not to sleep on the Texans. Our defense vs. RBs (not just the rush).

Our defense has played one stellar half against Running Backs. Outside of that, it is been a nightmare. I have been doing my DFS research this AM. For those of you into DFS, there is one defense that stands out as an obvious "chalk" choice to pick on with RBs this week. That would be the Falcons.

1. We have given up 2.0 Rushing TDs per game...the only team to do so.
2. Average rushing yards, we are doing better. We are 13th best in the league given up only 95.7 yards.
3. Since this post is primarily about DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports), we have given up 47.37 DK (Draft Kings) fantasy points to RB this season. That would be almost 14 points higher that the next worst team, which is STL at 33.9.
4. Opponents RB are targeted with passes 13.3 times per game pulling, on average, 12 of those targets for completions. 12 of 13 means...well, we are not good at covering RBs.
5. Opponents RBs are averaging 105 yards per game catching. If you think that may be because our scheme allows underneath throws, another team with the same scheme (Seattle) has given up 3 catches for 32 yards this season. Yes the NFC East uses their RBs to cover up for inadequacies at WR, but still, the numbers are just silly. The Giants have played only NFC East offenses and are giving up 9.3 completions for 83 yards. They are second worst to us, but significantly better with 2 common opponents.
6. So, on average, we give up 200.7 yards a game to opposing RBs (sum of rushing and receiving).

If Adrian Foster plays, the above stats should be good indicators. Mallett hasn't made a name for himself airing the ball out to WRs. If Blue is the RB, we should fair better. He is not the receiving threat that Foster is.

Also, I wonder if Brooks Reed will improve our ability to cover RBs? I don't hate Bierman like the rest of you, but I'm tired of seeing him trailing RBs and TEs. I pretty much just like to see him as an extra edge rusher.

While I hate doing this normally, I want to address a couple of the running stats.

1. While playing the Cowboys, against the best OL in football, Coach Quinn said we missed some fits and had to adjust, and adjust they did.

2. Cowboys - tale of halves - even quarters. 1st quarter = 91 yards and 2 TD, 2nd quarter = 40 yards and 2 TD, 3rd quarter = -5 yards (loss) and 0 TD, 4th quarter = 1 yard and 0 TD. 1st half = 131 yds and 4 TD, 2nd half = -4 yards (loss) and 0 TD.

When you factor in yards for that one quarter, it makes up 32% of the rushing yards we've allowed all year and 33% of the scoring.

This is the part I hate - but I have to do it anyway because it was such an anomaly and they obviously addressed it.

Take out the 1 quarter of rushing from the Dallas game.

11 quarters = 196 yards or an average of 71.3 yards per game when you factor in 4 quarters per game.

196 / 11 = 17.82 yds per quarter. 17.82 yds * 12 = 213.8 yds total 213.8 /3 = 71.3 yds per game

So, other than the total breakdown in the 1st quarter of the Dallas game, they've done very well against the run.

[SkerFalcon8710]

O how quickly we forget that 80 yards came off 2 ******* plays solely bc of missed tackles

[falcndave]

A few things:

1. We gave up 4 of those 6 touchdowns in the first half of last game. While you say we were stellar in run defense for one half, it's the exact opposite. We were lacking in run defense in one half of one game and the rest we were dominating.

2. Our scheme absolutely allows for underneath passes and because we don't have the same defenders as Seattle we are covering the middle of the field more than they ar

While I hate doing this normally, I want to address a couple of the running stats.

1. While playing the Cowboys, against the best OL in football, Coach Quinn said we missed some fits and had to adjust, and adjust they did.

2. Cowboys - tale of halves - even quarters. 1st quarter = 91 yards and 2 TD, 2nd quarter = 40 yards and 2 TD, 3rd quarter = -5 yards (loss) and 0 TD, 4th quarter = 1 yard and 0 TD. 1st half = 131 yds and 4 TD, 2nd half = -4 yards (loss) and 0 TD.

When you factor in yards for that one quarter, it makes up 32% of the rushing yards we've allowed all year and 33% of the scoring.

This is the part I hate - but I have to do it anyway because it was such an anomaly and they obviously addressed it.

Take out the 1 quarter of rushing from the Dallas game.

11 quarters = 196 yards or an average of 71.3 yards per game when you factor in 4 quarters per game.

196 / 11 = 17.82 yds per quarter. 17.82 yds * 12 = 213.8 yds total 213.8 /3 = 71.3 yds per game

So, other than the total breakdown in the 1st quarter of the Dallas game, they've done very well against the run.

I'm responding to your post because it is so thorough, not to be argumentative. Responding here will also address valid, similar points, made by others.

I plainly stated the the rushing yards we are giving up is better than average. Somehow I titled my post so poorly that the main point is being missed. We can't cover backs out of the backfield. We have face some excellent receivers, but we still need to hold them to under 315 yards through 3 games.

My intended takeaway is this. I love our chances vs. Blue. I like our chances vs. Foster, but he is much more concerning to me due to our inability to cover RBs so far. I hope Reed can help with that, but I don't know his history.

[falcndave]

Exactly.

These stat gurus fail to take reality into question. We had one half of horrible run defense. If not for that we'd likely be top 10 in run defense. Moreover 6 rushing TDs is not accounting for 4 coming in the last game.

A few things:

1. We gave up 4 of those 6 touchdowns in the first half of last game. While you say we were stellar in run defense for one half, it's the exact opposite. We were lacking in run defense in one half of one game and the rest we were dominating.

2. Our scheme absolutely allows for underneath passes and because we don't have the same defenders as Seattle we are covering the middle of the field more than they are.

3. So if you're only concerned with DFS, then you will be fine getting a few points picking a receiving back but if you're banking on them getting touchdowns, then you are being fooled by one bad half as opposed to 6 great ones.

I agree completely with points 2 and 3. I only play H2H and 50/50. I'm a newbie. I'm not comfortable with my ability to take "smart chances" for GPP yet. Taking RBs verses Atlanta is more of high floor than a high ceiling as far as production goes based on these stats.

[falcndave]

O how quickly we forget that 80 yards came off 2 ******* plays solely bc of missed tackles

See responses above...I'm more concerned with relieving yardage. As stated, much of that yardage is on short throws, but the YAC is not good.

[falcndave]

Thanks for all the responses so far. Let me open a new question.

Will Brooks Reed help with covering backs? Is that in his skill set and/or in line with how we intend to use him here?

[Tandy]

Thanks for all the responses so far. Let me open a new question.

Will Brooks Reed help with covering backs? Is that in his skill set and/or in line with how we intend to use him here?

I can't say for sure - but he does have 13 stuffs in 4 years, 14 1/2 sacks, 1 ff, 2 fr and 169 tackles.

He's definitely involved in the game.

[Jaymadd]

You are not going to beat us running the ball you have to be able to score. I dont give a dam about the number of fantasy points we are giving up as long as we are making the stops we need to win and so far this defense is getting off the field whe. It matters the most. This thread is more about fantasy.

[fuego]

While I hate doing this normally, I want to address a couple of the running stats.

1. While playing the Cowboys, against the best OL in football, Coach Quinn said we missed some fits and had to adjust, and adjust they did.

2. Cowboys - tale of halves - even quarters. 1st quarter = 91 yards and 2 TD, 2nd quarter = 40 yards and 2 TD, 3rd quarter = -5 yards (loss) and 0 TD, 4th quarter = 1 yard and 0 TD. 1st half = 131 yds and 4 TD, 2nd half = -4 yards (loss) and 0 TD.

When you factor in yards for that one quarter, it makes up 32% of the rushing yards we've allowed all year and 33% of the scoring.

This is the part I hate - but I have to do it anyway because it was such an anomaly and they obviously addressed it.

Take out the 1 quarter of rushing from the Dallas game.

11 quarters = 196 yards or an average of 71.3 yards per game when you factor in 4 quarters per game.

196 / 11 = 17.82 yds per quarter. 17.82 yds * 12 = 213.8 yds total 213.8 /3 = 71.3 yds per game

So, other than the total breakdown in the 1st quarter of the Dallas game, they've done very well against the run.

Good post. And as someone else mentioned:

"O how quickly we forget that 80 yards came off 2 ******* plays solely bc of missed tackles."

[falcndave]

Good post. And as someone else mentioned:

"O how quickly we forget that 80 yards came off 2 ******* plays solely bc of missed tackles."

Do you have any concerns about the Texans throwing the ball to Foster?

[Monolith2001]

You are not going to beat us running the ball you have to be able to score. I dont give a dam about the number of fantasy points we are giving up as long as we are making the stops we need to win and so far this defense is getting off the field whe. It matters the most. This thread is more about fantasy.

This is the real takeaway. The rules for fantasy are very different than the actual play of the game. We force teams to dink and dunk with our scheme. I can only imagine that it is our way of taking advantage of the personnel we have and forcing teams to execute over and over as opposed to allowing them to move the ball in chunks (unless we miss tackles or take bad angles)..

[falcndave]

This is the real takeaway. The rules for fantasy are very different than the actual play of the game. We force teams to dink and dunk with our scheme. I can only imagine that it is our way of taking advantage of the personnel we have and forcing teams to execute over and over as opposed to allowing them to move the ball in chunks (unless we miss tackles or take bad angles)..

Agreed. But I really do think we do a poor job of limiting YAC to RBs. You can't just throw away miss tackles and bad angles as long as they are occurring in every game. I hope it is just technique and that it can be coached. However, we have barely won 3 games. The consistent theme in these three real life football games is our inconsistency at stopping running backs (mostly) from getting first downs on short passes. Dinks and dunks can get you beat when they turn into TDs. That is how our offense plays. It seems like we do get one 20 yard play every drive, but most of the rest of it is one torturous 3rd down conversion after another.

I think there is some merit to the idea that simply more time in the system will improve the consistency in keeping RBs from turning short 3rd down catches into first downs. However, we haven't demonstrated it yet.