jdawg4876 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 The Atlanta Falcons obviously have had an impressive start to the season with wins against the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants.According to ESPN Stats & Information, 43 percent of teams that have gotten off to 2-0 starts since 1990 have gone on to make the playoffs. But according to the ESPN's Football Power Index, the Falcons have a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs based on the 2-0 start, which is in front of undefeated teams such as the Carolina Panthers (66 percent), the Cincinnati Bengals (65 percent) and this week's opponent, the Dallas Cowboys (61 percent).ESPN Insider Mike Sando took things a step further in declaring the Falcons the NFC South favorite in his latest insider piece. It's a tremendous breakdown that incorporates the fast start, the Pro Football Focus Rankings, The Football Power Index, and the injury factor (Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints).Here's an interesting quote Sando gathered from an unnamed defensive coach who broke down the Falcons' defense on film:"It's a long season, and two games is no enough to draw conclusions, but I really like what they are doing. All the fundamentals are installed. They have the big guys running and the little guys hitting. They have great body posture, which allows for explosive changes of director in the underneath coverage, which should limit YAC (yards after the catch). They have a four-man rush and know how to rush. Combine low YAC with violent tackling and tons of jerseys to the ball, it looks good." So, are the Falcons truly playoff bound as the class of the NFC South? Like the coach above said, it's too early to tell. But Dan Quinn definitely has elevated the level of a play for a team that missed the postseason the previous two seasons.The Falcons can't take the Cowboys lightly this weekend because of their strong defense and tough offensive line. However, 3-0 should be within reach withTony Romo, Dez Bryant, and probably Jason Witten out of the Dallas lineup.Then looking ahead to Week 4, the Falcons catch the Houston Texans in the midst of a quarterback switch from Brian Hoyer to Ryan Mallett, so Houston is still trying to find its footing. But contending with J.J. Watt won't be easy, plus the Texans could get top running back Arian Foster back from groin surgery.Yes, the Washington Redskins are on the schedule in Week 5, but the Week 6 Thursday night matchup against the Saints on the road should be the game that reveals a lot about the Falcons. The rivalry game always has a chance to go either way, no matter the records. And Brees' status coming off a bruised rotator cuff could be a huge factor in the game, even if he plays.The Saints have won three of the past four meetings between the teams in New Orleans, but the Falcons took last year's matchup, 30-14. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim Mazetti Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Good article. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTFalcon25 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 The Eagles have looked terrible through two games. But maybe people will be saying in a few weeks, "the Eagles faced two really tough defenses to start the year". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MACK4ttACK Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Praise Quinn !!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MilleniumFalcon Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 The ESPN Insider article he's referring to:Falcons are now NFC South favorites Mike Sando, NFL Insider The 2-0 Atlanta Falcons check in at 18th on ESPN's Football Power Index, which paradoxically rates their playoff chances at 75.3 percent, the fifth-highest in the NFL. The 75.3 figure sounds absurd if you've paid attention to the roster atrophy that has left Matt Ryan and Julio Jones to fend for themselves over the past couple seasons. But when taking into account schedules and Drew Brees' injury within the NFC South, an opening is certainly there for the Falcons to reach the postseason in Dan Quinn's debut season as head coach. Here, we consider what the Falcons have going for them both on and off the field, backed by insights from a veteran NFL coach who has analyzed them. Also, we'll take a run around the league heading toward Week 3, with early reads on Indianapolis, where the tension is palpable, and Philadelphia, where the quarterback doesn't look right. The Falcons are getting their share of breaks. They opened against the Eagles, whose offense has floundered to an unanticipated degree. The Giants team they drew in Week 2 had its pass-rush undercut when top pass-rusher Jason Pierre-Paul lost part of his hand during a fireworks explosion. The Falcons will now face Dallas right after the Cowboys lost quarterback Tony Romo to a broken clavicle. The Power Index now pegs the Falcons' chances against the Romo-less Cowboys at about 50 percent, nearly the same as their freshly recalculated chances for winning the NFC South, where the FPI gives Atlanta a 49.1 percent chance to win the division, a 16.9 percent jump from the preseason. The Panthers are given a 44.9 percent chance, leaving Atlanta as the current favorites. For now. The changes reflect what has happened to the Falcons' opponents more than any demonstrable gains Atlanta has made in victories over the Eagles and Giants. The Falcons' FPI rankings have inched up three spots to seventh for offense, one spot to 25th for defense, three spots to 17th for special teams and two spots to 18th overall. There's a gap between what the numbers say and the optimism I heard from a defensive coach I consulted after he reviewed the Atlanta tape. "It's a long season, and two games is not enough to draw conclusions, but I really like what they are doing," this coach said. "All the fundamentals are installed. They have the big guys running and the little guys hitting. They have great body posture, which allows for explosive changes of direction in the underneath coverage, which should limit YAC [yards after catch]. They have a four-man rush and know how to rush. Combine low YAC with violent tackling and tons of jerseys to the ball, it looks good." That sounds great, but some of the stats through two games suggest Atlanta is suffering from the same defensive issues that made the 2014 Falcons unusually bad (they became the only team over the past nine seasons to have both a losing record and a Total QBR score above 70). While quarterback Matt Ryan remains productive, ESPN game charting shows the Falcons currently ranking 30th in getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks and 24th in defensive expected points added (EPA). Early grading from Pro Football Focus has been more encouraging. The Falcons' offensive line ranks second in pass blocking. Both Atlanta offensive tackles have graded positively so far (their predecessors were heavily in the negative at this point last season). Rookie defensive end Vic Beasley, drafted in the first round, ranks second to Seattle's Cliff Avril in pass-rushing among 4-3 defensive ends (he is sixth overall, counting run defense). When Quinn was defensive coordinator in Seattle, he called plays for a team that swarmed pass catchers, limiting them to a league-low 4.4 yards after the catch (per reception). His Falcons have already allowed 53 yards after one catch (to Odell Beckham) and 35 yards after another (to Shane Vereen), which explains why they rank only 24th in YAC/reception allowed. The two big pass plays allowed against the Giants were the only 30-plus receiving gains against Atlanta through two games, however. The Falcons had allowed a league-worst five at this point last season (they allowed 21 all season, which ranked 20th and was a couple worse than average). "They've got a good plan, [and] they were making us throw the ball underneath a lot all day," Eli Manning said after the game. "We hit the big one to Odell, but we didn't get the ball down the field. They weren't going to let us do that." The coach who studied the Falcons thought the manner in which they swarmed to the ball suggests Quinn has gotten the players' attention. He said head coaches highly involved in one side of the ball -- Quinn is in that category -- have an advantage of daily involvement that promotes clarity and accountability to both players and coaches. Quinn has the players' attention and, at least early, the Falcons have ours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BankerBird™ Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 One game at a time, folks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazoo Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Before we ranked at bottom of the league in QB pressures rushing 5 and 6 much of the time. This year we are rushing only 4 and getting same amount of pressures (if that pressure stat is accurate) which is a huge improvement. My eyes are telling me our defense is much better against both pass and run on a play to play basis. Yes, we've missed some tackles and had some miscommunication leading to long plays, but observing all the other snaps over 2 games I see dramatic improvement in our defense and especially how we look on 3rd downs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notthatcool Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 bovada has the odds at eventwo days ago it was +110if I remember correctly there were only 3 or 4 teams at even or better to win their division Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazoo Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Out of the article "(the Falcons became the only team over the past nine seasons to have both a losing record and a Total QBR score above 70)."If this stat right here doesn't prove to the Ryan detractors that it was Ryan's supporting cast that has been holding us back, not Ryan, nothing will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndySG Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 One game at a time, folks.This, this, a thousand times this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlking Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 (edited) One game at a time, folks.What kind of camera did you take that selfie with? Edited September 23, 2015 by atlking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capologist Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 JJ Watt vs. Mike Person. That scares the little bunny foo foo out of me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonnyjim Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Praise Quinn !!!!!Say Hallelulia!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackredfellow Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 I really had low expecations this year. Now I really feel like not starting 5-0 means there was a letdown in there. We are officially better than the Boys, Texans and Skins, and need to handle business and be in the drivers seat of the NFCS. Can't even believe I just typed that. If we start 5-0 though, wow have we put ourselves in great shape. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernscot Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Hate to get ahead of ourselves, but with this great 2-0 start (and quite possibly 4-0 or 5-0), Falcons should be set up to go 11-5 or 12-4 and host a playoff game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PapaJoe Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 What kind of camera did you take that selfie with?ROFLMAO!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wjcorner Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 (edited) JJ Watt vs. Mike Person. That scares the little bunny foo foo out of me...Not much better odds but wouldn't it be Chester getting many of the snaps against him? Or rather Chester and Schraeder Edited September 23, 2015 by Wjcorner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesus Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Err we swept the Saints last year. They haven't won 3 out of the last 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysnill1 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Err we swept the Saints last year. They haven't won 3 out of the last 4.IN New Orleans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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