Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Falconsfan567

2016 Mlb Draft

477 posts in this topic

Since it's clear the Braves are headed for a top 5 pick (maybe even the #1 pick) in next year's draft I think it's only fair if we start talking about the top prospects for the 2016 MLB draft. Now this list can change a ton from now until next June but here is what I've been able to find so far about potential top high school and college prospects for next year.

This first article was posted by Kiley McDoniel on Fangraphs back in April as a 2016/2017 draft prospects list.

Alec Hansen, RHP, Oklahoma: In high school, Hansen was a big dude with some arm speed that hadn’t quite put it together. Last summer in the Cal Collegiate League, he ran it into the high-90’s and showed flashes, then continued that this spring. He basically has the same stuff as Dillon Tate (94-97, touch 99 mph, 65 or so slider, 55 or so changeup) but is 6’7/235 (Tate is 6’1/190) and is getting his first extended look as a starter as a sophomore (Tate made his first collegiate start this spring, as a junior). There’s some understandable command issues and growing pains given the size and newness of the wipeout stuff, but Hansen is just scratching the surface.
Riley Pint (18.6), RHP, St. Thomas Aquinas HS (KS), LSU commit: You’d think a 6’7 Dillon Tate would be a slam-dunk choice over a prep pitcher, but Pint had his share of believers that he should be the #1 prospect in this class. I’ve seen 23 of these 30 players ranked here, but I haven’t seen Pint and most scouts haven’t either. He threw at one event last summer (some video from that event) and will only go to some of the events this summer. He’s been cautiously used, doesn’t throw at all in the winter (which often leads to velo gains in the spring, like for Brady Aiken and Foster Griffin in the 2014 draft class) and is a solid hoops player.
Pint is 6’4/190, has athletic actions, sits 92-96 and recently hit 98 mph, mixing in a hard, plus, spike curveball in the mid-80’s and showing enough feel that his changeup and command both project for at least average, but likely more. I’ll probably see Pint a few times this summer and at least once next spring, but it’s hard to put a somewhat mysterious prep pitcher #1 on a loaded list. That said, people that have seen him are saying he’s right there with Lucas Giolito, Jameson Taillon and Dylan Bundy as the next prep phenom righty with a chance to go 1-1; hopefully Pint doesn’t have to get elbow surgery like those three have.
Blake Rutherford (19.0), CF, Chaminade Prep HS (CA), UCLA commit: Rutherford was noticed as early as his freshman or sophomore year as an elite hitting prospects and the track records of those type of players is very good (Bryce Harper, Eric Hosmer, Alex Jackson, Nick Gordon, etc.). He’s 6’3/190, a plus runner with effortless actions in all phases, advanced feel to hit from the left side and above average raw power that he gets to in games already. He’s basically a slightly toolsier version of Banks with some track record for scouts, given his performance in events/games as an underclassman in a highly-scouted area of the country.
A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida: Puk also has a chance to jump into the elite category, but he’s a two-way guy (with plus raw power from the left side) on a team with a deep staff, so he hasn’t pitched as much as some of his peers. He was also recently arrested for climbing on a construction crane with a teammate, which clouds his future just a bit. At his best, the 6’7/230 Puk sat 92-95 mph, touched 96 mph, worked in a plus slider and shows starter traits. 5/9/15 UPDATE: After his suspension for the crane incident, Puk has ticked up, looking more focused, sitting 94-97 early, hitting 98 mph and holding 93-96 late into games. If he continues doing this into the summer, he’ll jump a couple more spots, but there’s been some inconsistency from Puk in his college career.
Nick Banks, RF, Texas A&M: Banks isn’t quite as exciting as those first three players here, but has plenty of ceiling. He’s an above average runner with a plus arm, above average raw power from the left side and some scouts put a 60 on his bat. Banks has performed well in the springs and summers and only got to school due to an injury his senior year in high school that obscured some of his talent.
Austin Bergner (19.1), RHP, Windemere Prep HS (FL), North Carolina commit: You’re going to hear Pint and Bergner compared a lot and there’s a number of similarities. Bergner was noticed as early as his sophomore year as an elite arm and is easy to scout, playing in Orlando and hitting the showcase/tournament circuit. The 6’4/195 Bergner has improved every time I’ve seen him and had a coming-out party last October in Jupiter when he sat 93-95, hit 96 mph with life, located an above average to plus curveball and an above average changeup. Scouts were wandering in to see him with potential 2015 1st rounders playing on adjacent fields and the consensus that night is that Bergner was the top high school pitcher on the planet, likely going in the top 10-15 picks, even if thrown in the 2015 class. Pint gets the slight edge for a little more velo, a little more youth, more cautious usage and maybe a little more command, but we’re splitting hairs at this point.
Robert Tyler, RHP, Georgia: Tyler is another guy that could jump into the elite category but has been on the shelf for a few months with arm soreness. It sounds like he’s close to returning and late last spring and early in the summer, he showed a new level of performance, sitting 95-98 mph in short stints with a plus changeup and enough breaking ball and command that he’s still got a good shot to start. 5/10/15 UPDATE: Tyler came off the DL and hit 97 mph last week then 99 mph this week. He looks to be back to normal and there’a case to be made he should be even higher than this.
Note: After talking to some sources that have seen most or all of these top 5 players, this seemed like the cutoff for the elite, potential strong 1-1 choices and you could put them in almost any order. For reference, there is maybe one of those players in the 2015 draft crop, so to already have at least five (and you could argue for another five that I identify below) this early in the process, particularly from the prep side, is a great sign for the top of this draft class. I’ll be a little more brief in my notes for the rest of the top 30. 5/10/15 UPDATE: The elite group is now a top 7 as two as the guys that just missed the top group (Puk and Tyler) took a big step forward in the weeks after I posted the list.
Connor Jones, RHP, Virginia: A late 1st round talent out of high school that had a high number, Jones has progressed well at UVA, now working 91-95 and hitting 96 mph with plus sink (but also sometimes 89-93 mph), an above average to plus changeup and an average breaking ball. There’s a compelling case to throw Jones in the elite group now, especially if his breaking ball gets a little better.
Jason Groome (17.8), LHP, IMG Academy HS (FL), Vanderbilt commit: Groome is another guy with a chance to jump into that top 7, elite group, He’s very young for the class, a projectable 6’6/180, has a zero-effort delivery and is regularly 89-93, with reports he’s been as high as 97 mph this spring. The off-speed stuff is more 50-55 right now, but there’s more than a few of the positive Brady Aiken indicators here and there may be even more upside.
Ryan Boldt, CF, Nebraska: Boldt was another 1st round talent out of high school but a knee injury during the spring caused teams to back off. He hasn’t integrated his average raw power into games yet, but he’s performed and is still an easy plus runner that profiles in center.
Chris Okey, C, Clemson: Okey was a fringe first rounder out of high school with multiple teams that came close to meeting his number, but not enough to get him signed. He’s raking this year and is very similar to the Jays 2014 1st rounder Max Pentecost, with at least average speed, at least an average glove, above average arm and bat and fringy to average raw power.
Logan Shore, RHP, Florida: Shore likely stays in this range from start to finish, as he’s an SEC Friday night performer with a clean delivery/arm action and above average stuff with good command: 90-94 mph, above average to plus changeup, at least an average breaking ball.
Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford: Quantrill is another guy that could jump into the elite category and he was there a few weeks ago before he got Tommy John surgery. At his best, the son of Paul Quantrill works 92-95 mph with a 65 changeup and a 55 breaking ball, though he was more 90-93 with a 50 breaking ball this spring (video from earlier this spring).
Bobby Dalbec, 3B, Arizona: Dalbec has some similarities to D.J. Peterson and Kris Bryant as a power college bat with a chance to play third base. He’s 6’4/215 and has easy plus raw power to all fields and most scouts throw at least a 50 bat on him, but he’s more likely to play a corner position other than third base. Dalbec also has a plus arm and sits low-90’s on the mound.
Corey Ray, CF, Louisville: Ray was a raw athlete out of high school that’s put it together this year at Lousiville. He’s 5’11/185 and quick-twitch with plus speed and above average raw power, along with emerging feel to hit in games and 9 homers so far this spring.
Matt Crohan, LHP, Winthrop: Crohan is getting similar buzz now that Sean Newcomb got at this point two years ago as a small school, big-bodied, athletic lefty with premium stuff. He hasn’t been seen by even most Carolinas area scouts, but reports have him up to 97 mph with above average stuff and he should be easy to find this summer.
Brad Debo (18.8), C, Orange HS (NC), South Carolina commit: Debo wont MVP of the loaded Jupiter tournament last October and is drawing comparisons from scouts to other first round prep backstops like Chris Betts (2015) and Nick Ciuffo (2013). All three show above average raw power, advanced feel to hit from the left side and the pure tools to stick behind the plate.
Braxton Garrett (18.8), LHP, Florence HS (AL), Vanderbilt commit: Garrett was a scouts’ favorite last summer at Jupiter, sitting 87-89 mph with an above average curveball, smooth delivery, feel to pitch and a projectable 6’3/190 frame. Reports have him sitting 90-93 mph this spring, so if he can keep that up, #18 may be on the low side for him.
Matt Krook, LHP, Oregon: Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Krook was a potential high first rounder until he had Tommy John last spring. At his best, Krook sat 92-94, hit 96 mph, mixed in a plus curveball and just enough changeup and command that he looked like a mid-rotation or better starter on the good days. He should be at 100% for next spring and may have timed this thing just right to shoot up the board. Here’s some video from when I saw him early in his prep senior spring.
Drew Mendoza (18.7), SS, Lake Minneola HS (FL), Florida State: Mendoza was a skinny shortstop with some feel to hit from the left side that was a solid follow, then he hit two homers this spring off RHP Brady Singer, who will likely go in the first 50-60 picks this summer. Mendoza has filled out his lanky 6’4 frame a bit but still looks like as shortstop for now, with the bat showing more impact.
Zach Jackson, RHP, Arkansas: UPDATE 5/16/15 I got a one inning look at Jackson in Arkansas’ regular season finale and it was better than I was told. He sat 93-96 mph, his mid-80’s curveball was above average to plus and his 6’4/215 frame has room to add more bulk. The delivery is clean enough that there’s a chance he sticks as a starter and I’d expect to see him in Arkansas’ rotation next season.
Jake Fraley, CF, LSU: Fraley is the slowest of the three regular LSU outfielders and still may be a pro center fielder due to his above average to plus speed. He’s 6’0/183 with an advanced lefty bat and above average raw power that he’s learning to integrate into his game.
Dane Dunning, RHP, Florida: UPDATE 5/10/15 Dunning was one of the last cuts from the list, after I saw him early in the season showing above average stuff and improved feel but more of a backend starter with projection for more. He was recently up to 96 mph, is working with a plus fastball, has more projection left in his frame and the improved arm speed helps the crispness of his roughly average breaking ball and above average to plus changeup.
Along with Puk and Shore, the Gators have a fearsome 2016 rotation, almost expected from their banner 2013 recruiting class, which includes 2016 draft prospects 1B Pete Alonso and CF Buddy Reed, along with three prospects that opted to turn pro: White Sox RHP Tyler Danish, Indians LHP Sean Brady and Giants 2B Christian Arroyo.
Anthony Kay, LHP, Connecticut: Kay got a Marco Gonzales comp from one source, as a solid average stuff, athletic pitchability lefty that can gets whiffs with an above average to plus changeup and enough velo (89-92, touch 94 mph) to keep hitters honest.
Jeff Belge (18.5), LHP, Henninger HS (NY), St. John’s commit: Belge has a workhorse 6’4/235 frame and is the typical big, athletic raw arm from the Northeast. He sits low 90’s and has hit 95 mph with an average breaking ball and the early stages of a changeup, but there’s a lot more in there.
Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Vanderbilt: Sheffield was a high profile prep arm a few years back that hit 98 mph, but missed his first year at Vanderbilt due to Tommy John surgery. I saw him earlier this spring and he sat 92-95, hit 96 mph, has an above average to plus curveball and a changeup that flashed solid average. There’s some effort to the delivery akin to Carson Fulmer and Sheffield is still working on the command, but there’s stuff, athleticism and he hides the ball well.
Alex Speas (18.3), RHP, McEachern HS (GA), Mississippi State commit: I tweeted excitedly when I ran into Speas last week that he hit 97 mph when facing a high school team loaded with two top-five round 2015 draft hitters. Speas is rail-thin and likely doesn’t add much weight to his 6’5/170 frame, but 92-96, hitting 97 mph with an flashes of an above average hard curveball and enough athleticism (he hit 2 homers in that game) to figure out the command later is a very good place to start.
Wil Crowe, RHP, South Carolina: Crowe would’ve been higher until he, like Quantrill, had his UCL snap a few weeks ago. At his best, Crowe sits 92-94 and hits 96 mph with an above average to plus hook and starter traits to project in the middle of a rotation.
Willie Abreu, RF, Miami (FL): Abreu was idnetified early in his prep career due to being high school teammates with Albert Almora but Abreu has performed plenty for himself. He has above average raw power from the left side, solid feel to hit and an above average arm, but he’s still learning to tap into that power in games.
Michael Shawaryn, RHP, Maryland: Shawaryn has emerged in recent outings, with his stuff ticking up from more of an average stuff, back-end starter type to flashing more above average stuff with the same sharp command.
Cole Ragans (18.5), LHP, North Florida Christian HS (FL), Florida State commit: Ragans is next in the line of elite arms from NFC, following the Sands brothers Carson (got $1.1 million from the Cubs last year) and Cole (likely top 2 round pick this summer). He’s 6’4/185, sits 87-90 and hits 93 mph with at least average stuff and command and flashes of more coming.
More College Pitchers (19)
RHP Keegan Thompson (Auburn), LHP T.J. Zeuch (Pittsburgh), LHP Ben Bowden (Vanderbilt), LHP Jared Poche (LSU), RHP Kyle Hendrix (Texas A&M), RHP Cory Wilder (North Carolina State), RHP Daulton Jefferies (California), RHP Kyle Serrano (Tennessee), RHP Gage Burland (Gonzaga), RHP Zach Burdi (Louisville), RHP Ryan Moseley (Texas Tech), LHP Eric Lauer (Kent State), RHP Nick Eicholtz (Alabama), RHP Ian Hamilton (Washington State), LHP Garrett Williams (Oklahoma State), RHP Zac Gallen (North Carolina), RHP Alex Schick (California), RHP Hever Bueno (Arizona State) and RHP Reagan Bazar (Louisiana Lafayette)
More College Position Players (21)
LF Bryan Reynolds (Vanderbilt), CF Anfernee Grier (Auburn), 1B Zack Collins (Miami), C Andrew Knizner (North Carolina State), CF Stephen Wrenn (Georgia), 1B Pete Alonso (Florida), SS Stephen Alemais (Tulane), SS Cody Woodmansee (Arizona State), CF J.B. Woodman (Ole Miss), RF Ronnie Dawson (Ohio State), 3B Sheldon Neuse (Oklahoma), 2B Luke Persico (UCLA), C Matt Thaiss (Virginia), CF Buddy Reed (Florida), C Tres Barrera (Texas), 3B Lucas Erceg (California), SS Trevor Morrison (Oregon State), 2B Cavan Biggio (Notre Dame), LF Kel Johnson (Georgia Tech), C Brett Cumberland (California) and 1B Preston Palmeiro (North Carolina State)
More High School Pitchers (9)
RHP Kevin Gowdy (CA, UCLA), RHP Greg Veliz (FL, Miami), RHP Drake Fellows (IL, Vanderbilt), RHP Garrett Gooden (GA, Georgia Tech), LHP Jonathan Gettys (GA, LSU), RHP Charles King (TX, TCU), LHP Jesus Luzardo (FL, Miami), RHP Ian Anderson (NY, Vanderbilt) and RHP Josh Lowe (GA, Florida State)
More High School Position Players (16)
SS Nolan Williams (KS, None), 1B T.J. Collett (IN, Kentucky), LF Seth Beer (GA, Clemson), RF Jalen Harrison (VA, Virginia), SS Nick Quintana (NV, USC), SS Delvin Perez (PR, None), SS Gavin Lux (WI, None), 3B Garrett Milchin (FL, Florida), CF Keenan Bell (FL, Florida), 2B Carlos Cortes (FL, South Carolina), SS David Hamilton (TX, Texas), SS Grant Bodison (SC, South Carolina), 3B Bo Bichette (FL, Arizona State), C Herbert Iser (FL, Miami), C Thomas Dillard (TN, Ole Miss) and C Michael Amditis (FL, Miami)
Note: Carlos Cortes throws his natural left-handed when he plays center field, but then switches to right-handed to play second base.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

567, Did any of those websites provide any indication where Keegan Thompson may be drafted?

Of the ones I looked at that was the only mention of him. He'll be going into his Junior season at Auburn so he may decide to stay in school for his Senior year and be drafted again in 2017. I'm thinking though that he should be a picked within the first 10 rounds of the draft.

AEFalcon likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would agree on the scenario regarding Thompson. If he does not get drafted high enough that he may stay at AU for another year and build on his success there. AU is a great place, couldn't imagine going there AND playing baseball!!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well it is early Sep and the Braves have moved into #3 draft slot after being swept by the Marlins. This seems to be Freddie G's wheelhouse, will he guide the team to the # 1 spot?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well it is early Sep and the Braves have moved into #3 draft slot after being swept by the Marlins. This seems to be Freddie G's wheelhouse, will he guide the team to the # 1 spot?

#2 spot. It's amazing how much worse the NL is than the AL this year. The 6 worse records in MLB are all NL teams.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep, you're right, we are in 2 spot. We have 3 early picks (rd 1, comp A, early rd 2,) it would be nice to hit big on all 3 of those picks. At this point the draft doesn't have the clear Superpick #1 like Harper or Strausburg but it is considered a deep draft by the experts. Wonder if we continue the trend of drafting pitchers or will we go with hitters early.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

#2 spot. It's amazing how much worse the NL is than the AL this year. The 6 worse records in MLB are all NL teams.

Most were expected due to suckage carryover or rebuilding. Meanwhile, the Reds were at least expected to be average and most people seemed to think the Marlins would be competitive due to [expected] good pitching and a decent lineup. Their collapses have been truly shocking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most were expected due to suckage carryover or rebuilding. Meanwhile, the Reds were at least expected to be average and most people seemed to think the Marlins would be competitive due to [expected] good pitching and a decent lineup. Their collapses have been truly shocking.

The Brewers are a disappointment too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MLB Pipeline came out with their 2nd mock draft, and it's now close enough that I'm starting to pay attention.

Callis:

  1. Philles: LHP A.J. Puk, Florida
  2. Reds: OF Kyle Lewis, Mercer
  3. Braves: OF Corey Ray, Louisville

Mayo:

  1. Phillies: LHP A.J. Puk, Florida
  2. Reds: OF Kyle Lewis, Mercer
  3. Braves: LHP Jason Groome, Barnegat (NJ) H.S.

And here's Baseball America's first mock results from 3/30/16.

  1. Phillies: LHP Jason Groome, Barnegat (NJ) H.S.
  2. Reds: 3B Nick Senzel, Tennessee
  3. Braves: RHP Riley Pint, Overland Park (KS) H.S.

 

My feeling is that if Groome is there the Braves won't be able to resist, but that he'll be taken #1 by the Phillies. If The Reds take Senzel or Lewis, I think the Braves take Corey Ray, not Pint. If there's a choice between Lewis and Ray, they'll take Lewis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Unkn0wn said:

Lewis or Senzel would be fine with me. Im not sure Senzel will stick at 3B though. 

Right, so I'd rather have Ray than Senzel as a more all-round player. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, K26dp said:

MLB Pipeline came out with their 2nd mock draft, and it's now close enough that I'm starting to pay attention.

Callis:

  1. Philles: LHP A.J. Puk, Florida
  2. Reds: OF Kyle Lewis, Mercer
  3. Braves: OF Corey Ray, Louisville

Mayo:

  1. Phillies: LHP A.J. Puk, Florida
  2. Reds: OF Kyle Lewis, Mercer
  3. Braves: LHP Jason Groome, Barnegat (NJ) H.S.

And here's Baseball America's first mock results from 3/30/16.

  1. Phillies: LHP Jason Groome, Barnegat (NJ) H.S.
  2. Reds: 3B Nick Senzel, Tennessee
  3. Braves: RHP Riley Pint, Overland Park (KS) H.S.

 

My feeling is that if Groome is there the Braves won't be able to resist, but that he'll be taken #1 by the Phillies. If The Reds take Senzel or Lewis, I think the Braves take Corey Ray, not Pint. If there's a choice between Lewis and Ray, they'll take Lewis.

I'd be more than fine with Groome or Ray. I am suspect of Pint despite his stuff since his mechanics seem too off and I can't get excited about Lewis since he doesn't come off as a well rounded player.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I want a power college hitter. Someone that we don't have to wait forever to see in Atlanta. We need guys that can be useful sooner rather than later.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Falconsfan567 said:

I want a power college hitter. Someone that we don't have to wait forever to see in Atlanta. We need guys that can be useful sooner rather than later.

Lewis has more power but Ray is better all around. Due to that I'll take a bit less pop to draft him. It also helps that his hitting mechanics are smooth while Lewis' are clunky.

Falconsfan567 likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Psychic Gibbon said:

Lewis has more power but Ray is better all around. Due to that I'll take a bit less pop to draft him. It also helps that his hitting mechanics are smooth while Lewis' are clunky.

Sounds good. Jim and Don were just talking about Michael Conforto and how he dropped to 10th overall in the draft because he's pretty limited defensively but that if you could draft him or someone who's has a higher ceiling but a lower floor player right now which do you draft? Both said they would take Conforto. Also Jim mentioned Mike Kelly and how he flamed out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Unkn0wn said:

Well the rumblings have been that the Braves are wanting a college hitter at #3

Yeah, Coppy has made that well know.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Falconsfan567 said:

Sounds good. Jim and Don were just talking about Michael Conforto and how he dropped to 10th overall in the draft because he's pretty limited defensively but that if you could draft him or someone who's has a higher ceiling but a lower floor player right now which do you draft? Both said they would take Conforto. Also Jim mentioned Mike Kelly and how he flamed out.

I agree with that. If a player can hit then you'll find a spot for them.

My point with Ray v. Lewis is simply that Ray is a better overall player. He hits for contact, has a patient approach, he has some pop, has good speed (I think he has 5 triples this season), and he's a pretty good fielder. With Lewis you're mostly just getting a plus power bat.

Falconsfan567 likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Psychic Gibbon said:

I agree with that. If a player can hit then you'll find a spot for them.

My point with Ray v. Lewis is simply that Ray is a better overall player. He hits for contact, has a patient approach, he has some pop, has good speed (I think he has 5 triples this season), and he's a pretty good fielder. With Lewis you're mostly just getting a plus power bat.

Yeah. Rather have the all around 20 or so HR hitter over the all or nothing hitter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites