hjerry Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Spotrac does these all year long and I just saw that they got to Julio, so here it is. You may have to follow the link to get the whole thing as certain parts may not copy over though. Enjoy. With Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas now out of the way, each signing 5 year $70 million contracts with their respective teams, the focus quickly turns to the next wideouts in line - Bengals A.J. Green and Falcons Julio Jones. We'll take the latter into consideration here, running Jones through our forecast formula to project his current value heading toward the end of the offseason.Comparable Wide ReceiversWe've selected a variable set of receivers to compare Jones to in terms of production. To determine a more likely starting point for our numbers, we'll perform a linear regression of each contract breakdown listed below.PLAYER LENGTH VALUE AVG. SALARY AGE WHEN SIGNED Mike Wallace 5 $60,000,000 $12,000,000 26 Jeremy Maclin 5 $55,000,000 $11,000,000 27 Demaryius Thomas 5 $70,000,000 $14,000,000 27 Dez Bryant 5 $70,000,000 $14,000,000 27 Averages 5 $63,750,000 $12,750,000 27Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary. View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFLBecause Jones will likely be 27 years old at the time of his next contract, we'll adjust the above contracts up/down to normalize them as if they also signed their deals at age 27. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:LENGTH VALUE AVG. SALARY (SLOPE) 5 $64,060,150 $12,812,030Statistical Analyzations, Prime PercentageNow let's analyze these players statistically in the year prior to signing their second contract by showing Games Played, Receptions per Game, Receiving Yards per Game, Yards of Catch per Game and Touchdowns per Year.PLAYER G/YR REC/TAR/G REC YDS/G YAC/G REC TD/G Mike Wallace (2011-12, PIT) 14 58% 65.5 5.6 .57 Jeremy Maclin (2013-14, PHI) 8 59% 82.4 6 .625 Demaryius Thomas (2013-14, DEN) 16 62% 95.3 6.85 .78 Dez Bryant (2013-14, DAL) 16 60% 79.8 4.95 .9 AVERAGES 13.5 60% 80.75 5.85 .57 Julio Jones (2013-14, ATL) 10 64% 108.7 5.85 .4 % DIFFERENCE -25.93% 7.28% 34.61% 0% -44.35% AVERAGE PRIME %: 3.24% MEDIAN PRIME %: 7.28%Jones certainly holds up against our variables, with a slight decrease in terms of games played due to injury, and touchdowns scored. We'll factor in both the Average and Median percentages to show a range projection below.Guaranteed Money PLAYER VALUE TRUE GUARANTEES % GUARANTEED Mike Wallace $60,000,000 $27,000,000 45% Dez Bryant $70,000,000 $45,000,000 64.2% Jeremy Maclin $55,000,000 $22,500,000 40.9% Demaryius Thomas $70,000,000 $43,500,000 62.1% Adjusted Regression: 63%ResultsLength of the ContractNow 26 years old, Jones is likely looking at a 5 year deal, replacing the franchise tag he's currently sitting on for the 2015 season. This deal should carry him through the 2019 season, at 31 years of age.Value of the ContractOutside a few nagging injuries, Julio has held up well to the impossible standards he was brought into the league by when the Falcons traded two first round picks to jump up and select him. He's productively solid across the board, a Top 5 receiver in the league, and extremely valuable to the Falcons' offense going forward. When Factoring in our previously determined Prime Percentages, we're left with the following:Low Value (Hometown Discount)Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (3.24%)5 years, $66,135,700 | $13,227,140 per year | $41,665,000 guaranteedHigh ValueUtilizing our Median Prime Percentage (7.28%), we've given a slightly bigger forecast:5 years, $68,736,500 | $13,747,300,140 per year | $43,400,000 guaranteedFinal ThoughtsMathematically speaking Jones is calculating at an overall and average price lower than Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas just received. While one can argue strongly for any of the three being better than the other, it's highly likely that the price for Jones will exceed the 5 year $70M, $45M guaranteed structure that Bryant and Thomas secured. As a Top 10 pick (#6 overall), Jones' $10.176M 5th year option and possible $13M 2016 franchise tag allow for more than $23M in guaranteed money that the Falcons essentially owe Jones already. Toss in a $10M+ signing bonus, and a guaranteed 2017 salary, and the possibility of going north of $45M is extremely likely. With that being said, our mathematically calculated value for Jones is currently:Spotrac's Prediction: 5 years, $67,500,000Average annual salary $13,500,000, estimated $42,525,000 guaranteedhttp://www.spotrac.com/research/nfl/contract-forecast-julio-jones-527/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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