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Contract Forecast: Julio Jones


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Spotrac does these all year long and I just saw that they got to Julio, so here it is. You may have to follow the link to get the whole thing as certain parts may not copy over though. Enjoy. smile.png


With Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas now out of the way, each signing 5 year $70 million contracts with their respective teams, the focus quickly turns to the next wideouts in line - Bengals A.J. Green and Falcons Julio Jones. We'll take the latter into consideration here, running Jones through our forecast formula to project his current value heading toward the end of the offseason.

Comparable Wide Receivers
We've selected a variable set of receivers to compare Jones to in terms of production. To determine a more likely starting point for our numbers, we'll perform a linear regression of each contract breakdown listed below.
PLAYER LENGTH VALUE AVG. SALARY AGE WHEN SIGNED Mike Wallace 5 $60,000,000 $12,000,000 26 Jeremy Maclin 5 $55,000,000 $11,000,000 27 Demaryius Thomas 5 $70,000,000 $14,000,000 27 Dez Bryant 5 $70,000,000 $14,000,000 27 Averages 5 $63,750,000 $12,750,000 27

Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.

View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFL

Because Jones will likely be 27 years old at the time of his next contract, we'll adjust the above contracts up/down to normalize them as if they also signed their deals at age 27. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:

LENGTH VALUE AVG. SALARY (SLOPE) 5 $64,060,150 $12,812,030
Statistical Analyzations, Prime Percentage
Now let's analyze these players statistically in the year prior to signing their second contract by showing Games Played, Receptions per Game, Receiving Yards per Game, Yards of Catch per Game and Touchdowns per Year.
PLAYER G/YR REC/TAR/G REC YDS/G YAC/G REC TD/G Mike Wallace (2011-12, PIT) 14 58% 65.5 5.6 .57 Jeremy Maclin (2013-14, PHI) 8 59% 82.4 6 .625 Demaryius Thomas (2013-14, DEN) 16 62% 95.3 6.85 .78 Dez Bryant (2013-14, DAL) 16 60% 79.8 4.95 .9 AVERAGES 13.5 60% 80.75 5.85 .57 Julio Jones (2013-14, ATL) 10 64% 108.7 5.85 .4 % DIFFERENCE -25.93% 7.28% 34.61% 0% -44.35% AVERAGE PRIME %: 3.24% MEDIAN PRIME %: 7.28%
Jones certainly holds up against our variables, with a slight decrease in terms of games played due to injury, and touchdowns scored. We'll factor in both the Average and Median percentages to show a range projection below.
Guaranteed Money
PLAYER VALUE TRUE GUARANTEES % GUARANTEED Mike Wallace $60,000,000 $27,000,000 45% Dez Bryant $70,000,000 $45,000,000 64.2% Jeremy Maclin $55,000,000 $22,500,000 40.9% Demaryius Thomas $70,000,000 $43,500,000 62.1% Adjusted Regression: 63%

Length of the Contract
Now 26 years old, Jones is likely looking at a 5 year deal, replacing the franchise tag he's currently sitting on for the 2015 season. This deal should carry him through the 2019 season, at 31 years of age.

Value of the Contract
Outside a few nagging injuries, Julio has held up well to the impossible standards he was brought into the league by when the Falcons traded two first round picks to jump up and select him. He's productively solid across the board, a Top 5 receiver in the league, and extremely valuable to the Falcons' offense going forward. When Factoring in our previously determined Prime Percentages, we're left with the following:

Low Value (Hometown Discount)

Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (3.24%)

5 years, $66,135,700 | $13,227,140 per year | $41,665,000 guaranteed

High Value

Utilizing our Median Prime Percentage (7.28%), we've given a slightly bigger forecast:

5 years, $68,736,500 | $13,747,300,140 per year | $43,400,000 guaranteed

Final Thoughts
Mathematically speaking Jones is calculating at an overall and average price lower than Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas just received. While one can argue strongly for any of the three being better than the other, it's highly likely that the price for Jones will exceed the 5 year $70M, $45M guaranteed structure that Bryant and Thomas secured. As a Top 10 pick (#6 overall), Jones' $10.176M 5th year option and possible $13M 2016 franchise tag allow for more than $23M in guaranteed money that the Falcons essentially owe Jones already. Toss in a $10M+ signing bonus, and a guaranteed 2017 salary, and the possibility of going north of $45M is extremely likely. With that being said, our mathematically calculated value for Jones is currently:

Spotrac's Prediction: 5 years, $67,500,000
Average annual salary $13,500,000, estimated $42,525,000 guaranteed
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It would be nice but I seehim getting more.

So do they. Pay attention to the "final thoughts" paragraph right above the prediction. It makes it clear that they'd bet on him getting more, but their prediction is an entirely mathematical analysis.

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very similar to what I predicted earlier in the day. I would give Julio the same 5yr, $70mm deal but a little less guaranteed than what Dez and Thomas got - the injuries and lack of TDs versus those guys justify.

Dez $45mm guaranteed

D Thomas $43.5mm guaranteed

Julio $41mm guaranteed


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Length of the Contract

Now 26 years old, Jones is likely looking at a 5 year deal, replacing the franchise tag he's currently sitting on for the 2015 season. This deal should carry him through the 2019 season, at 31 years of age.

Looks like they made a mix up there, he's on the final year of his deal, he's not tagged. That being the case, I could see a 6 yr deal being done.

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I am not sure their linear regression works well on guys at the top of the bell curve. The method may be great for the 25th receiver in the league, but you have premiums for top 5-7 guys because other teams are willing to pay more for a "difference maker" and that changes the salary. It just sounds more scientific than, "I was speculating in the break room with fellow sports writer X,"

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Yall, again, Julio is getting an extension, not a new contract. If he gets a 5yr $70MM extension, it's in line with what the market was just set at, but less because it would kick in a year later. He is under contract for $10MM right now. That would be a 6yr $80MM contract, with about $50MM guaranteed.

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he does not deserve more - for injuries and lack of TDs, he deserves less - but not much less - I would put him at 90-95% of Dez's contract.

Understand your reasoning, but , if they paid him a little more than Dez's contract be OK with that too.

Like to see something in the contract that protects against injury- Ryan's original contract had a huge bonus his 4th year, if Ryan had busted, they would have saved a huge chunk of money by cutting him after his 3rd year. Could do the same here.

Something like that or not guaranteeing the 3rd year salary against injury would make me happy.

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"Lack of touchdowns" implies that he's somehow deficient at generating touchdowns. Do you really think that's the case?

exactly where has Julio shown an inability to score touchdowns when given the ball, im waiting for this explanation....you cant blame an offensive philosophy on a player, our redzone offense has sucked for quite some time but it is not like he's the reason. last big drop in scoring position I remember him having was in his rookie season...

the contract would be fair but the reasoning some of you are stating is silly....

Edited by TheeTKOBeatz
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