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Dez Bryant Contract Should Trigger Talks For Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons


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Who was New England's $10-$12 million dollar receiver last year?

Gronk is barely under 10.

Seattle's $10-$12 million dollar receiver the year before that when they won the SuperBowl?

Harvin

How about Baltimore the year before that?

Boldin was 8.3. That's higher percentage-wise than 10 would be now, I believe.

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Stats last 3 years:

Dez Bryant

3,935 yards

41TDs

273 receptions

48 games (out of possible 48)

5.69 rec/game

81.98 yds/game

0.85 TDs/game

DeMaryius Thomas

4,483 yards

35 TDs

297 receptions

48 games (out of possible 48)

6.19 rec/game

93.40 yds/game

0.73 TDs/game

Julio Jones

3,371 yards

18TDs

221 receptions

36 games (out of possible 48)

6.14 rec/game

93.64 yds/game

0.50 TDs/game

from looking at the stats on the three players over the last three years - which seems like the right sample size to me - a few things are obvious:

1) Dez and Demaryius have proved to be extremely healthy and resistant to injury

2) Dez is the most prolific TD maker of the three - scoring them at over a 35% clip higher than Julio

3) Demaryius has the "best overall" stats of the three players.

4) Except for last year, Dez has had the least amount of talent around him (last year Julio had the least around him)

Obviously injuries in 2013 impacted Julio in a major way and he was projecting to have a great season in 2013 before injured - but that is why I wanted to look at the "per-game" averages to smooth that out.

I would say - from a numbers standpoint and factoring in a very, very slight injury discount (say 2%), I would say a fair contract for Julio based on numbers would be about 90% of the Dez/Demaryius contracts - w/ the discount being the lack of TDs (say 8% discount) and injury (2% discount).

So let's take 5yrs and 70mm and make the guaranteed and total value 90%

Fair Julio Jones deal (based on yesterdays contract signings)

5yrs/$63mm and $40.5mm guaranteed (90% of Dez's contract/ Thomas had same contract but $1.5mm less in guarantees).

Seems fair to me - I'm sure Julio will get more - but he should not get more than Dez and Demaryius for sure.

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Gronk is barely under 10.

Harvin

Boldin was 8.3. That's higher percentage-wise than 10 would be now, I believe.

And, signing Jones to a 14 mil contract with a 143 mil salary cap would put him about 9.7% of the cap, his current salary is 7.1% of the cap. that 2.6% just isn't as significant as they'd like to think.

Gronk 6.7%

Harvin 7.5%

Boldin 6.7%

Difference isn't enough to worry about, and the cap is going to keep going up.

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So let's take 5yrs and 70mm and make the guaranteed and total value 90%

Fair Julio Jones deal (based on yesterdays contract signings)

5yrs/$63mm and $40.5mm guaranteed (90% of Dez's contract/ Thomas had same contract but $1.5mm less in guarantees).

Seems fair to me - I'm sure Julio will get more - but he should not get more than Dez and Demaryius for sure.

Works for me, but there are so many ways to tweak the numbers.

I'd give him that as a base, with escalators for games played, so that, if he plays more, he gets paid more.

Even if they pay him the same as the other two, still a good deal for the Falcons. Would hope they front load the h#ll out of it so that they can pay the D guys down the road.

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Works for me, but there are so many ways to tweak the numbers.

I'd give him that as a base, with escalators for games played, so that, if he plays more, he gets paid more.

Even if they pay him the same as the other two, still a good deal for the Falcons. Would hope they front load the h#ll out of it so that they can pay the D guys down the road.

I like it....to me that would be fair - less guranteed money but a chance to make the same as the other two guys....of the guaranteed money - push as much as you can to the two first years of the deal so that the cap affects of compensation are much smaller in years 3-5 of the contract. This also protects the Falcons if Julio started becoming chronically injured while making room down the road for re-signing Trufant and Beasley.

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I like it....to me that would be fair - less guranteed money but a chance to make the same as the other two guys....of the guaranteed money - push as much as you can to the two first years of the deal so that the cap affects of compensation are much smaller in years 3-5 of the contract. This also protects the Falcons if Julio started becoming chronically injured.

Exactly, would even add another year to the deal- 6 for 84, so that his agent could brag about getting more money for him.

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Exactly, would even add another year to the deal- 6 for 84, so that his agent could brag about getting more money for him.

I think I would hang tight at 5 years - this carries us through Julio's (age 31 season) - at that point the next year he is age 32 and there should be a drop-off.

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OK, so many ways to go. If they signed him for 5 years 70 mil, think the players assoc. goes after them for collusion?

I dunno.....not as long as the players don't complain - remember, Dez and Demaryius wanted those long-term deals at those numbers or they would not have signed.

I do think there was likely collusion and I believe that is why both of those deals got done so quickly and were similiar amounts - I believe the NFLPA probably had the goods on Cowboys/Broncos and said - "give us these deals - OR ELSE" - and both teams complied.

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I dunno.....not as long as the players don't complain - remember, Dez and Demaryius wanted those long-term deals at those numbers or they would not have signed.

I do think there was likely collusion and I believe that is why both of those deals got done so quickly and were similiar amounts - I believe the NFLPA probably had the goods on Cowboys/Broncos and said - "give us these deals - OR ELSE" - and both teams complied.

Yeah, but those are good deals for everyone involved. Details are different enough to say they aren't the same contract.

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Yeah, but those are good deals for everyone involved. Details are different enough to say they aren't the same contract.

True but the basics - yrs and total value are EXACTLY the same and the guaranteed monies are within $1.5mm of being the same (97%). Close enough for me.

NFLPA is not going to raise a stink about it now that players got their deals.

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