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Matt Ryan Over/under Passing Yards This Season


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Where would you put the over/under for Matt Ryan's passing yardage this year? I really can't help but think the closer to 4,000 yards (as opposed to 5,000) he has the better. What do you expect? I'm going to go ahead and put the number at 4,250.

That sounds about right. What will be interesting will be to see how the running game opens up opportunities for a better TD/INT ratio....say 30/10?

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I'm going to say the attempts will go down a bit but as already mentioned, the I too expect YAC to improve in a scheme where the routes will be designed to create gaps instead of running all the receivers but one into the same zone.

I say he goes over 5K yards this year

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It looks like there are a range of expectations. I just don't see anything close to 5k as a positive thing. If he hits 5k that would probably imply that the running game isn't clicking, and we may be playing from behind a good bit. As many have pointed out, the efficiency stats may be even more telling, yac, td/int, ypa. If we truly do see an improvement across the board, you can bet we will be in the hunt for a playoff spot. Jmo

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It looks like there are a range of expectations. I just don't see anything close to 5k as a positive thing. If he hits 5k that would probably imply that the running game isn't clicking, and we may be playing from behind a good bit. As many have pointed out, the efficiency stats may be even more telling, yac, td/int, ypa. If we truly do see an improvement across the board, you can bet we will be in the hunt for a playoff spot. Jmo

In all seriousness this is where I'm at too. I see somewhere in the 4100-4300 range with 31-33 Tds and 8-12 ints.
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It looks like there are a range of expectations. I just don't see anything close to 5k as a positive thing. If he hits 5k that would probably imply that the running game isn't clicking, and we may be playing from behind a good bit. As many have pointed out, the efficiency stats may be even more telling, yac, td/int, ypa. If we truly do see an improvement across the board, you can bet we will be in the hunt for a playoff spot. Jmo

agreed. To balance out this offense and get the pass/run ratio closer to 55/45, the yards are going to max out between 4,000 - 4,500. Anyone saying 5,000 is out of their minds - it won't happen. If it does happen, then the running game is back in the toilet again and we are down 3 scores by halftime most games.

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It looks like there are a range of expectations. I just don't see anything close to 5k as a positive thing. If he hits 5k that would probably imply that the running game isn't clicking, and we may be playing from behind a good bit. As many have pointed out, the efficiency stats may be even more telling, yac, td/int, ypa. If we truly do see an improvement across the board, you can bet we will be in the hunt for a playoff spot. Jmo

I honestly don't like this trend of low yards and high everything else. I much prefer Drew Brees 2011 stats that have it all: High TD, some INT, High YPA, High PCT, Absurd yards. That's how a true elite QB balls. Not like those punks Rodgers and Romo that have like 2,000 yards a season.

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I honestly don't like this trend of low yards and high everything else. I much prefer Drew Brees 2011 stats that have it all: High TD, some INT, High YPA, High PCT, Absurd yards. That's how a true elite QB balls. Not like those punks Rodgers and Romo that have like 2,000 yards a season.

:mmmhmm: I see what you did there
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I don't think his improvements will translate to yardage...

4300-4500 yards...

but if we can have first half explosiveness and actually have a run game that can command and control the 2nd half, that number can get as low as 3900-4100 yards.

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It looks like there are a range of expectations. I just don't see anything close to 5k as a positive thing. If he hits 5k that would probably imply that the running game isn't clicking, and we may be playing from behind a good bit. As many have pointed out, the efficiency stats may be even more telling, yac, td/int, ypa. If we truly do see an improvement across the board, you can bet we will be in the hunt for a playoff spot. Jmo

agreed. To balance out this offense and get the pass/run ratio closer to 55/45, ...

55/45 was the 25th lowest passing % last year, just don't see the falcons doing that. Think it's still going to be closer to 60-40, which would have been 16th last year.

Here's how I got to 600 attempts this coming year:

Say 58% passing and 42% rushing. had a 1000 offensive plays last year, that would take him down from 625 to 580, roughly, So, we're at 580, now assume more plays run each game because they sustain drives with the run game. A dozen teams ran more plays than the falcons last year. Carolina ran 2.2 more plays a game in 2014, assume the Falcon's improved run game can do that, that's 35 more plays, 58% of 35 is 20.

So, we're at 600. Think a 600/435 would be a good ratio 38/28 ratio per game

Ryan is too good a passer to not use him. Jones is too much of a weapon not to use him. Shanahan has never had a weapon at QB like Ryan. Falcons need an efficient run game, not a killer one.

Think 5000 is improbable, but not necessarily a bad thing, if it comes from Quinn never taking his foot of the gas and building up 20 point leads before he relaxes. As compared to Smith, who would rein in the offense with a 10 point lead.

Also, if Shanahan is better at halftime adjustments, the offense may not have those 3rd quarter lulls.

If I'm wrong, won't be the first time, and if Ryan has a year like Romo had last year, I'll be happy with that, I'm thinking he's still going to throw it around a lot.

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