Projecting Atlanta's 2016 Compensatory Draft Pick Situation

[theProf]

The free agency period for compensatory draft purposes ended on May 12 this year. Unrestricted Free agents signed after May 12 will not factor into the compensatory draft formula. Therefore, this is a good time to try and project if the Falcons might be awarded any comp picks for the 2016 draft.

To determine if a team might get comp picks, one has to determine if a team is in a Net Loss situation, ie the compensatory UFAs lost to other teams is greater than the compensatory free agents signed. "Compensatory" free agents would be Unrestricted free agents whose contracts had expired (not cut or released before contract expiration), who are signed during the free agency period (March 10 to May 12 this year), and whose average annual contract compensation is greater than a minimum threshold amount (recent minimum threshold amounts appear to be between $900,000 to $950,000).

If a team is in a Net Loss situation, then they will receive comp picks in the next draft = to the Net Loss Amount up to a maximum of 4 picks per team. If a team is in a Net Gain situation, then NO comp pick. No team has ever been awarded a comp pick if they had a Net Gain. If a team is in a -0- Net situation, ie, the UFAs signed were exactly equal to the UFAs lost, then they might receive a 7th round comp pick, if the value of the free agents lost is significantly more than the value of the free agents signed.

At this point, I project that Atlanta will NOT be entitled to any comp picks in the 2016 draft because they are currently in a projected Net Gain situation of 2 (7 signed - 5 lost). I project that Atlanta has signed 7 compensable UFAs: Reed, Durant, Clayborn, Schofield, Tamme, Person, and Hankerson. UFAs under the minimum threshold signed by the Falcons include Adams, Moeaki, Mooney, and Jared Smith, and thus will not count in the comp formula. Also Polumbus will not count since he was signed after May 12.

I project that Atlanta has lost 5 compensable UFAs: Spoon, Peters, McClain, Josh Wilson, and Lowery. Wilson and Lowery are very near the borderline of the minimum threshold amount with annual compensation of $950,000 each. Atlanta has also lost Quiz Rodgers and Bear Pasco to other teams, but they will not count in the formula because their annual compensation is less than the minimum threhold amount.

Things could still change though. If one of the compensable UFAs does not make a team's final roster, then they would not count in the comp formula. For example, if Mike Person and Leonard Hankerson do not make the Falcons final roster, then they would not count in the comp formula as a compensable free agent signed by the Falcons

[hjerry]

Yep, I said going into this year's FA that there was no way that we were getting a comp pick in 2015 or 2016. ****, unless some of our 1yr contracts do well, and we let them get away, with all the cap space that we'll probably have, right now, I'd be surprised if we had any in 2017 either.

[theProf]

Yep, I said going into this year's FA that there was no way that we were getting a comp pick in 2015 or 2016. ****, unless some of our 1yr contracts do well, and we let them get away, with all the cap space that we'll probably have, right now, I'd be surprised if we had any in 2017 either.

Both you and I predicted no Falcons comp picks for the 2015 draft, based upon Atlanta's Net Gain situation in the 2014 free agency period. I first predicted no 2015 comp picks for the Falcons in May 2014, just like I'm predicting no Falcons comp picks for 2016 in this May 2015 post. Both you and I were also pretty accurate in our projections of 3 Falcons comp picks in the 2014 draft, with one of those being a 4th-round comp pick for losing Grimes. From a previous post of mine:

Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:32 AM

Now as to whether people understand the comp system or not, many do not and make false statements. However, some do understand the comp system. From a post of mine in a topic thread I started in January 2014 predicting the Falcons comp picks for 2014 as follows:

Abe, Dunta, Turner, and Clabo were all cut by the Falcons in 2013 before their contract terms ended. Therefore none of these players will count as UFAs lost and will not enter into the compensable formula in 2014. Atlanta lost 6 UFAs in 2013: Grimes ($5.5m new one-year contract= 4th round), Walker ($2m new contract= 6th or 7th), Owens ($1m new contact= 7th) , Svitec ($1m new contract =7th), McCown ($905,000 new contract= 7th), and Sidbury ($780,000 new contract). However, Sidbury will NOT count in the compensatory formula as a qualified free agent lost, because his annual salary is below the minimum cut-off point. The cutoff is somewhere between $800,000 to $900,000.

Atlanta lost 5 compensable FAs in 2013: Grimes, Owens, Walker, Svitek, and McCown. Atlanta signed 2 compensable UFAs in 2013: S-Jax (average annual comp = $4m = 5th round) and Osi (average annual comp =$4,250,000 = 5th round). Therefore, Atlanta has a NET LOSS of 3 UFAs = 3 comp picks. Since Jackson and Osi are higher rounds comps than Grimes, they can not cancel out Grimes. Therefore, Osi will cancel out Walker, and S-Jax will cancel out Owens.

That would leave Atlanta 3 comp picks in the 2014 draft: a 4th rounder for Grimes, and two 7th rounders for Svitek and McCown, according to my projection.

Some have questioned as to whether Osi and S-Jax wil count or not. I'm almost certain that both of these players will count in the comp formula because neither one was technically "cut or released". Both became UFAs due to the final year in their contracts being "voided". Osi's contract was voided due to a "technicality" in his contract. Jackson's contract gave him the option to void his final year. I believe that if a player becomes an unrestricted free agent, without being released or cut while under contract, then they will figure into the compensatory draft formula. Therefore, both Osi and S-Jax should count as qualified UFAs signed by Atlanta, in my opinion.

(Added Note: although I correctly projected the number of comp picks at 3 and the appropriate rounds (a fourth and two-sevenths), I wasn't completely accurate in my prediction as to who counted and who didn't. So even if you understand how the comp system works, you can still easily miss things. Osi did Count as a free agent signed by Atlanta, but S-Jax did NOT. Therefore, S-Jax became only the second player ever whose contract was voided who did NOT count in the comp formula. Also Luke McCown did not count even though he "qualified", because there were already the maximum of 32 comp picks awarded. Therefore Atlanta lost 4 qualified FAs (excluding McCown) and signed 1 qualified FA (excluding S-Jax) in 2013 for a Net Loss of 3 = 3 comp picks in the 2014 draft)

One other Note: Atlanta will receive NO comp picks in the 2015 draft, because they signed far more qualified Free Agents than they lost in 2014, and thus have a NET GAIN in qualified FAs rather than a Net Loss.

http://boards.atlantafalcons.com/topic/4004576-do-yall-have-a-good-understanding-on-comp-picks/page-2

[AndySG]

Yep. I'm not expecting any. Wouldn't be surprised if we got a few the following year, though. Think we are going to be based much more around the draft and picking up inexpensive players to coach up now that we have the building blocks that Quinn wanted.

[theProf]

Yep. I'm not expecting any. Wouldn't be surprised if we got a few the following year, though. Think we are going to be based much more around the draft and picking up inexpensive players to coach up now that we have the building blocks that Quinn wanted.

I'm not so sure that the Falcons have all the building blocks in place yet. Usually it takes 2 or 3 offseasons to makeover a deficient roster. I think the Falcons have done a great job thus far of changing its roster, but i think that there is still some significant additional work to do.

[Romfal]

yep, not holding my breath

[Hashbrown3]

Props man. Nice work.

I haven't the patience nor the desire to sort that out myself.

Matter of fact reading it made my head explode.

[hjerry]

Yep. I'm not expecting any. Wouldn't be surprised if we got a few the following year, though. Think we are going to be based much more around the draft and picking up inexpensive players to coach up now that we have the building blocks that Quinn wanted.

The Falcons targeted others. Had FA gone the way that we wanted, we'd have a starting TE, S, and OG, just for starters, so we're very willing to bring in FAs, and ones that are in the 5+ range also, but only if they agree to our price.

[theProf]

The Falcons targeted others. Had FA gone the way that we wanted, we'd have a starting TE, S, and OG, just for starters, so we're very willing to bring in FAs, and ones that are in the 5+ range also, but only if they agree to our price.

I know the Falcons offered TE Lance Kendrick a significant contract, but he chose to re-sign with the Rams for less than the Falcons were offering. The Falcons were also interested in TE Niles Paul, but he re-signed with the Skins. When these two TE targets fell through, Atlanta then signed Tamme and Moeaki. The Falcons also targeted two Free Safeties: Ron Parker who re-signed with KC, and Darian Stewert who signed with Denver just as his plane touched down in Atlanta. The Falcons did sign OT/OG Mike Person. However, I can't recall a starting OG that Atlanta targeted, but lost out on?

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

I know the Falcons offered TE Lance Kendrick a significant contract, but he chose to re-sign with the Rams for less than the Falcons were offering. The Falcons were also interested in TE Niles Paul, but he re-signed with the Skins. When these two TE targets fell through, Atlanta then signed Tamme and Moeaki. The Falcons also targeted two Free Safeties: Ron Parker who re-signed with KC, and Darian Stewert who signed with Denver just as his plane touched down in Atlanta. The Falcons did sign OT/OG Mike Person. However, I can't recall a starting OG that Atlanta targeted, but lost out on?

There was some discussion linking us to Boling at one point IIRC. But he stayed in Cincinnati.

[hjerry]

There was some discussion linking us to Boling at one point IIRC. But he stayed in Cincinnati.

Yep

[theProf]

There was some discussion linking us to Boling at one point IIRC. But he stayed in Cincinnati.

Thanks. I didn't realize the Falcons had targeted OG Boling. Just found the following article:

Clint Boling

Bengals Re-Sign Clint Boling

March 11th at 1:53pm CST by Dallas Robinson

1:53pm: Boling’s new deal with the Bengals is now official, the team confirmed today (via Twitter).

WEDNESDAY, 9:51am: It’s a five-year, $26MM deal for Boling, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.com (via Twitter). That’s not a bad deal for the Bengals, considering other top free agent interior linemen, like Mike Iupati and Rodney Hudson, received $8MM+ annual salaries.

TUESDAY, 9:07pm: Boling is returning to the Bengals, as the two sides have worked out a deal, per the NFL Network’s Aditi Kinkhabwala (Twitter link).

7:26pm: The Bengals are nearing a deal to retain guard Clint Boling, according to Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com (Twitter link). The 26-year-old Boling had been drawing interest from other clubs, but it looks like he’ll head back to Cincinnati. Terms of the deal aren’t yet known.

The Vikings had expressed an interest in adding Boling, which would have reunited the Georgia alum with former Bengals coach Mike Zimmer. Boling’s trainer had indicated that although the Jets and Falcons were also pursuing the former fourth-round pick, Boling had the strongest interest in joining Minnesota. Instead, he’ll stay in Cincinnati, where’s started 44 games over the past three seasons.

Boling, who ranked at No. 44 among PFR’s Top 50 free agents, was especially excellent in 2014, grading as the league’s eighth-best guard per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He earned a base salary of $1.431MM last year, meaning he’ll be in for a large pay increase on his new contract.

http://www.profootballrumors.com/clint-boling/