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Football Outsiders: The Falcons Will Go 10-6 In 2015


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http://markbradley.blog.ajc.com/2015/05/13/football-outsiders-the-falcons-will-go-10-6-in-2015/

Where the Atlanta Falcons are concerned, Football Outsiders is on a roll. The erudite web site was correct in predicting that the Falcons would plunge from the 13-3 of 2012 to the bottom of the NFC South in 2013, correct again in suggesting that last year’s team would do better than the 4-12 of 2013 without quite being good. (Sure enough, the 2014 Falcons finished 6-10.)

Comes now, in the form of an ESPN Insider post, the latest forecast from Football Outsiders, and it’s a sunny one for the local eleven (or the local 53, if you insist on accuracy). The Falcons are projected to go 10-6, which would be a four-game improvement over last season and would, according to F.O., leave them tied atop the NFC South with New Orleans.

Having the NFL’s softest schedule will have something to do with it, but not everything. Writes Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders’ editor-in-chief:

(An) important element of our NFC South forecast is the fact that offense tends to be more consistent than defense from year to year. Atlanta and New Orleans were strong on offense and terrible on defense a year ago. Those defenses are more likely to improve than the offenses are to decline.

Even though the F.O. numbers have the Falcons and Saints tied, Schatz seems higher on the former, writing:

Atlanta’s offense should be better based on improved health (30th in offensive adjusted games lost in 2014) and the maturation of a top young offensive tackle (Jake Matthews). Even these numbers may be underestimating the importance of the players the Saints lost due to salary-cap issues, or the addition in Atlanta of our top projected rookie edge rusher, Vic Beasley.

In a pre-draft ESPN Insider post, Football Outsiders indeed earmarked Beasley as the top sacking prospect of this class. Wrote Nathan Forster: “Beasley gives you almost everything you want in an edge-rusher prospect.” The F.O. projection for Beasley — 34.1 sacks through Year 5, which would be an average of 6.82, which the Falcons would take in a heartbeat. (Though Beasley wouldn’t; on Draft Night, he called himself “a double-digit sack guy.”)

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Too early to predict records. If you put a gun to my head and demand a prediction I would say all four NFCS teams have a chance at the division. Don't think there will be another 7-9 winner though. If you want me to predict a division winner, I'd say the Panties. Defense should still be good and offense should improve slightly.

Quinn better figure out a way to beat em. They've gone 4-1 against us in the last five head to head match ups, with our lone win by two points coming after their FG kicker blew a game winning kick. Add in the 34-3 shallacking in our building, in a win or go home game and we've got our work cut out for us.

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Too early to predict records. If you put a gun to my head and demand a prediction I would say all four NFCS teams have a chance at the division. Don't think there will be another 7-9 winner though. If you want me to predict a division winner, I'd say the Panties. Defense should still be good and offense should improve slightly.

Quinn better figure out a way to beat em. They've gone 4-1 against us in the last five head to head match ups, with our lone win by two points coming after their FG kicker blew a game winning kick. Add in the 34-3 shallacking in our building, in a win or go home game and we've got our work cut out for us.

Agreed.

But they have lost Hardy thats good for us he has tortured our o-line last 2 years palying against back-ups for the most part.

For me I'll say it now if we can't run the rock put us down for 6-10,7-9.

If we show we can do the above consistently ala 08-09 the skies the limit.

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Too early to predict records. If you put a gun to my head and demand a prediction I would say all four NFCS teams have a chance at the division. Don't think there will be another 7-9 winner though. If you want me to predict a division winner, I'd say the Panties. Defense should still be good and offense should improve slightly.

Quinn better figure out a way to beat em. They've gone 4-1 against us in the last five head to head match ups, with our lone win by two points coming after their FG kicker blew a game winning kick. Add in the 34-3 shallacking in our building, in a win or go home game and we've got our work cut out for us.

I don't think the Panthers win it this year. They really didn't do much to fix their o-line so far. Especially at the OT spots.

They signed both Michael Oher and Jonathan Martin in FA. Both sucked last season.

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We went 11 and 5 in 2008 after literally blowing the roster up, and with a rookie QB! Matt can take us to the Promised Land, folks!!!

GO FALCONS!!!!

:lol: Of all the misuses of "literally" I've seen, this is literally the funniest.

I can just imagine Smitty and TD standing there with goggles on, "Thomas, we agreed that you get to trade whatever draft picks you want, and I get to pull the trigger. Now stand back before your hair gel causes a fire".

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I don't think the Panthers win it this year. They really didn't do much to fix their o-line so far. Especially at the OT spots.

They signed both Michael Oher and Jonathan Martin in FA. Both sucked last season.

Thing is though they don't need tobe beaters they can still pound the rock and our pass rush is still unproven and so is our running game until we can prove we can do the mentioned I think the Panties are still the division favourites regardlessof what the scribes say.

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Thing is though they don't need tobe beaters they can still pound the rock and our pass rush is still unproven and so is our running game until we can prove we can do the mentioned I think the Panties are still the division favourites regardlessof what the scribes say.

Agreed

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Agreed.

But they have lost Hardy thats good for us he has tortured our o-line last 2 years palying against back-ups for the most part.

For me I'll say it now if we can't run the rock put us down for 6-10,7-9.

If we show we can do the above consistently ala 08-09 the skies the limit.

They lambasted our Oline the last three games. We haven't done much to improve it. Might have downgraded the LG position. Many here are saying Shanny will fix it with the magical ZBS. Others are saying our return to health is the answer. The Panties sacked us 17 times in our last three games. Run Matt Run.

I don't think the Panthers win it this year. They really didn't do much to fix their o-line so far. Especially at the OT spots.

They signed both Michael Oher and Jonathan Martin in FA. Both sucked last season.

They were the first team to post back to back titles in the history of the NFC South. With turrible Olines. If their defense is still playing at a similar level, they will be a handful. Trust me.

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Thing is though they don't need tobe beaters they can still pound the rock and our pass rush is still unproven and so is our running game until we can prove we can do the mentioned I think the Panties are still the division favourites regardlessof what the scribes say.

True, but I think the Falcons and the Saints will be better teams this season.

I don't see a Brees led Saints team fully going away just yet.

Cam will be running a lot behind that o-line with Oher as his starting LT and Martin as his starting RT. The biggest factor of their run game will be heavily based if Jonathan Stewart can stay healthy.

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I have never heard of Football Outsiders. That said, their recent track record concerning our team is pretty darn good. I think that their projection is on target. Why? Well, let's list:

1. We suffered enormous injuries along the OL. The coaches did a great job with what they had, but let's be real, it is very tough to work with a group that is constantly changing. This year, I expect more stability along the OL. If for no other reason, our OL will be lighter and probably less prone to injuries.

I get a good feeling about our OL. I think that we will see some mediocre play for the first few games, but my hunch is that we will see a better OL as the year progresses.

2. Weaker schedule. It is not possible to judge strength of schedule accurately, but let's just say that the season will not be a death march. Our best records have been in seasons with opponent win/loss ratios of less than .500. We should see the same this year.

3. New Coach. Schemes aside, the excitement and competition gets ratcheted upwards with a new HC. Quinn has already signed quite a few new defenders. The turnover is good and no one can possibly feel entitled to a starting role.

4. We have a QB. This can not be understated. Matt Ryan is a hard working and smart football player. He can run any offensive scheme (except the spread), but his talents match the WCO best. I like the possibilities under Shanahan.

The Football Outsiders are right again, we will see a 10-win season.

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They lambasted our Oline the last three games. We haven't done much to improve it. Might have downgraded the LG position. Many here are saying Shanny will fix it with the magical ZBS. Others are saying our return to health is the answer. The Panties sacked us 17 times in our last three games. Run Matt Run.

They were the first team to post back to back titles in the history of the NFC South. With turrible Olines. If their defense is still playing at a similar level, they will be a handful. Trust me.

I agree that the Panthers will still be competitive, I just think that the Falcons and Saints will be better in a division that was pretty much very close between the Panthers, Falcons, and Saints for most of the last half of last season.

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Too early to predict records. If you put a gun to my head and demand a prediction I would say all four NFCS teams have a chance at the division. Don't think there will be another 7-9 winner though. If you want me to predict a division winner, I'd say the Panties. Defense should still be good and offense should improve slightly.

Quinn better figure out a way to beat em. They've gone 4-1 against us in the last five head to head match ups, with our lone win by two points coming after their FG kicker blew a game winning kick. Add in the 34-3 shallacking in our building, in a win or go home game and we've got our work cut out for us.

As you, I respect the Panthers, but I don't think that they will overcome us. I think that Quinn's defense will handle Cam very well and I believe that the Kracken made a lot of Panther defenders look better than they really are.

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I'm interested in seeing how both the Falcons and Saints play the Panthers offense and Can this season.

Both teams have been adding more press man type of corners. Both are looking to disrupt WRs timing on routes.

I'm happy that there won't be anymore CBs lined up 10-15 yards away from the line of scrimmage almost every single play.

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laugh.png Of all the misuses of "literally" I've seen, this is literally the funniest.

I can just imagine Smitty and TD standing there with goggles on, "Thomas, we agreed that you get to trade whatever draft picks you want, and I get to pull the trigger. Now stand back before your hair gel causes a fire".

That 2007 team was awful, but blowing them up sounds a bit too harsh. Well, maybe not.

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I agree that the Panthers will still be competitive, I just think that the Falcons and Saints will be better in a division that was pretty much very close between the Panthers, Falcons, and Saints for most of the last half of last season.

Not sure why anyone thinks Aints are improved. Unimpressive offseason, and Bree's for first time started looking old last year.

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Not sure why anyone thinks Aints are improved. Unimpressive offseason, and Bree's for first time started looking old last year.

The Saints are looking to run the ball more and do more play action passing with Brees.

That will benefit Brees very well as he gets older.

I don't think the Saints defense will be anything good though, especially with Rob Ryan still being their DC.

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