This Is The Hardest Draft To Nail Down Ever If Edge Rusher Is Our Goal

[MSalmon]

Usually, the mocker fockers and even casual draft junkies on here can nail down at least our first pick. But, what an intriguing draft this years is turning out to be. We all know we need an edge rusher, regardless of round taken. It's needed. It's legit to assume that the leading edge rushers are being scouted heavily by the Falcons. Now let's look at how they've all "trended" since the combine.

For example at combine time the following prospects were legit targets for us at 8 overall:

1) Fowler

2) Beasley

3) Gregory

4) Ray

Post combine, Beasley exploded with an excellent workout. Fowler was pretty good, but now Dupree has a heckuva workout! Gregory had a decent workout but was skinny. So post combine the edge prospects for 8 overall were:

1) Fowler

2) Beasley

3) Gregory (still legit 8 overall at this point)

4) Ray

5) Dupree

Post combine we had two major things occur:

1) Gregory is still skinny and has drug issues

2) Ray is hurt and his workout suffers

So now the edge prospects for 8 overall are as follows:

1) Fowler

2) Beasly

3) Dupree (even though tape isn't great

4) Ray (still there)

Now flash forward to present day and we see Ray busted for weed. So now the value of Beasley and Fowler really shoot through the roof. So now the original edge prospects are PROJECTED at the following pick range:

1) Fowler (top 5)

2) Beasley (top 5)

3) Gregory (late first, early second round)

4) Ray (late first , early second)

4) Dupree (top 15-20 talent wise, but athletically could be top 5)

So, assuming we don't trade up or down and stay at 8 overall, our EDGE prospects are narrowed to

1) Dupree

2) pray Beasley or Fowler fall

hete are the teams ahead of us who could use a stud edge rusher:

1) Jacksonville

2) Redskins

3) NY Jets

4) Chicago

The following teams could go Edge rusher, but most likely won't:

1) Tennessee

2) Oakland

So logically, if 4 teams have legit need for an edge rusher and 2 other teams could justify the picking of an edge rusher and only Fowler and Beasley maintain the "top 5" label where does that leave Atlanta?

Now remember, it's arguable that even Dupree has seen his value rise since Gregory and Ray fell.

So there's 3 possible edge guys that have top 10 labels but 4, and possibly 6 teams ahead of us could go Edge rusher as their first pick.

So here are our options as I see them:

1) Stay at 8--hope Fowler, Beasley or Dupree is available but go BPA whether it's Gurley, Scherff or even Peat (OT)

2) Trade up--grab fowler or Beasley

3) Trade back and grab a EDGE rusher with character concerns and some physical concerns in Gregory (weight and pot) or Ray (foot and pot)

4) Trade back and target say a Landin Collins, a cb or even a rb and look for an EDGE guy in rounds 2 or later

I'm thinking either option 2 or 4 I'm trading up if possible for Vic or Fowler ...or trading back and targeting Landon Collins or Gurley

Your thoughts?

[quotemokc]

Jaguars ranked 6th in total sacks last year and were ranked 32nd in sacks against

They need OL MUCH more than DL

[Smiler11]

Can't see Gregory and Ray slipping to the 2nd.

[MSalmon]

Jaguars ranked 6th in total sacks last year and were ranked 32nd in sacks against

They need OL MUCH more than DL

They just drafted Joekel...you say that but they certainly could use a young edge rusher. They've got some aging guys on the defense...in fact, if they passed on an edge guy (hope they do) like Beasly or Fowler, I'd say they're more likely to grab a guy like Cooper or White at WR than to reach at 3 overall for a Scherff or Peat.

The value at 3 would be a Beasley or Fowler

They are a great candidate for Us To trade up with; as they could still grab a top WR at 8

[MSalmon]

Can't see Gregory and Ray slipping to the 2nd.

I put late first or second. I think to the 20-25th pick range for Gregory. Ray may slip further. He's got the following against him:

1) Size-no great length or bulk

2) Athleticism: poor drills (which may be caused by #3)

3) injury concerns (foot injuries are hard to predict outcome and effect on play)

4) Character concerns--can't dismiss the fact he's got horrible judgement and possibly a character risk getting busted for pot 3 days before draft

I'd say Ray may see his name called in 2nd round, unless a team like the Pats , Ravens or bengals --teams that'll chance major character and injury risks--take a flier on him

[Maltese Falcon]

I could see a secret ranking of #1 for Williams. Falcons master board could have him already designated as part of this group.

He could be the clear cut #1 if he falls or we trade up. The other pass rushers seem to be bunched up too close together in both positives and negatives to take a chance.

[MSalmon]

I could see a secret ranking of #1 for Williams. Falcons master board could have him already designated as part of this group.

He could be the clear cut #1 if he falls or we trade up. The other pass rushers seem to be bunched up too close together in both positives and negatives to take a chance.

I could see that as well. In fact I'd be great with a trade up for Williams..and then maybe a Mauldin. Kikaha, orchard or Tull later

[Vandy]

Can't see Gregory and Ray slipping to the 2nd.

Me either. Still wouldn't shock me to see Gregory go Top 10. Ozzie/Ravens will grab Ray if he falls to them. Aints are also desperate for pass rusher. Edited April 29, 2015 by Vandy

[MSalmon]

Me either. Still wouldn't shock me to see Gregory go Top 10. Ozzie/Ravens will grab Ray if he falls to them. Aints are also desperate for pass rusher.

Gregory top ten? Who you thinking will chance him that high?

[Vandy]

Gregory top ten? Who you thinking will chance him that high?[/quote

Skins or Bears or maybe even us. Nobody knows for sure how new sheriff in town Quinn views Gregory-type issues. He certainly fits the physical aspects of what he says he wants in a player.

Edited April 29, 2015 by Vandy

[MSalmon]

Gregory top ten? Who you thinking will chance him that high?[/quote

Skins or Bears or maybe even us.

I though about the skins too..they do have Kerrigan so they could take that risk.

I'm not sure about us..tbh the pot bugs me less than the weight and tape on him..granted he sealed the edge more at Nebraska...but 230 and below is awful small for a 6'5" guy..that said a pure 34 team like the skins and even the Bears might minimize the size issue and put him in space.

I'm really rooting for Beasly or Williams...or just forgo the edge guy at 8 if we stay put..I kinda like fowler but he was used so weirdly at UF it's hard for my small brain to project him to the pros...if we trade up for him, I feel good considering the Quinn connection

Back to Williams...him and Hageman could make about anyone look good on the edge if they both reach their potential lol

Good discussion

[AndySG]

This year has been the most interesting draft that I can remember in terms of storylines.

[Sobeit]

Usually, the mocker fockers and even casual draft junkies on here can nail down at least our first pick. But, what an intriguing draft this years is turning out to be. We all know we need an edge rusher, regardless of round taken. It's needed. It's legit to assume that the leading edge rushers are being scouted heavily by the Falcons. Now let's look at how they've all "trended" since the combine.

For example at combine time the following prospects were legit targets for us at 8 overall:

1) Fowler

2) Beasley

3) Gregory

4) Ray

Post combine, Beasley exploded with an excellent workout. Fowler was pretty good, but now Dupree has a heckuva workout! Gregory had a decent workout but was skinny. So post combine the edge prospects for 8 overall were:

1) Fowler

2) Beasley

3) Gregory (still legit 8 overall at this point)

4) Ray

5) Dupree

Post combine we had two major things occur:

1) Gregory is still skinny and has drug issues

2) Ray is hurt and his workout suffers

So now the edge prospects for 8 overall are as follows:

1) Fowler

2) Beasly

3) Dupree (even though tape isn't great

4) Ray (still there)

Now flash forward to present day and we see Ray busted for weed. So now the value of Beasley and Fowler really shoot through the roof. So now the original edge prospects are PROJECTED at the following pick range:

1) Fowler (top 5)

2) Beasley (top 5)

3) Gregory (late first, early second round)

4) Ray (late first , early second)

4) Dupree (top 15-20 talent wise, but athletically could be top 5)

So, assuming we don't trade up or down and stay at 8 overall, our EDGE prospects are narrowed to

1) Dupree

2) pray Beasley or Fowler fall

hete are the teams ahead of us who could use a stud edge rusher:

1) Jacksonville

2) Redskins

3) NY Jets

4) Chicago

The following teams could go Edge rusher, but most likely won't:

1) Tennessee

2) Oakland

So logically, if 4 teams have legit need for an edge rusher and 2 other teams could justify the picking of an edge rusher and only Fowler and Beasley maintain the "top 5" label where does that leave Atlanta?

Now remember, it's arguable that even Dupree has seen his value rise since Gregory and Ray fell.

So there's 3 possible edge guys that have top 10 labels but 4, and possibly 6 teams ahead of us could go Edge rusher as their first pick.

So here are our options as I see them:

1) Stay at 8--hope Fowler, Beasley or Dupree is available but go BPA whether it's Gurley, Scherff or even Peat (OT)

2) Trade up--grab fowler or Beasley

3) Trade back and grab a EDGE rusher with character concerns and some physical concerns in Gregory (weight and pot) or Ray (foot and pot)

4) Trade back and target say a Landin Collins, a cb or even a rb and look for an EDGE guy in rounds 2 or later

I'm thinking either option 2 or 4 I'm trading up if possible for Vic or Fowler ...or trading back and targeting Landon Collins or Gurley

Your thoughts?

You are wrong Dupree was highly thought of before the combine but after the combine the media caught up.

[Vandy]

ame="Vandy" post="9327646" timestamp="1430309656"]

I though about the skins too..they do have Kerrigan so they could take that risk.

I'm not sure about us..tbh the pot bugs me less than the weight and tape on him..granted he sealed the edge more at Nebraska...but 230 and below is awful small for a 6'5" guy..that said a pure 34 team like the skins and even the Bears might minimize the size issue and put him in space.

I'm really rooting for Beasly or Williams...or just forgo the edge guy at 8 if we stay put..I kinda like fowler but he was used so weirdly at UF it's hard for my small brain to project him to the pros...if we trade up for him, I feel good considering the Quinn connection

Back to Williams...him and Hageman could make about anyone look good on the edge if they both reach their potential lol

Good discussion

Good points, I'm enamored with Williams too.

Quinn is the wildcard. If he believes in Gregory and still there at 8, a trade down with Cleveland would make tons of sense, if Cleveland wanted WR White

[MSalmon]

Good points, I'm enamored with Williams too.

Quinn is the wildcard. If he believes in Gregory and still there at 8, a trade down with Cleveland would make tons of sense, if Cleveland wanted WR White

Either scenario you pointed out would make me happy. One thing I like about Quinn is he seems to be consistent in the type players he can use.

[MSalmon]

You are wrong Dupree was highly thought of before the combine but after the combine the media caught up.

Unless you're a secret scout, none of the published (available to us Message board types) had him remotely projected in top ten prior to combine. Is he going to be good..? Who knows. But did he rise in value with the Gregory and Ray off field issues and his combine? Yup. And his play is still inconsistent on tape. Not even close to Ray, Beasley, fowler, or even Gregory in terms of what you expect to see in a top ten player on film

[MSalmon]

So Ray gets a weed pass but Gregory doesn't?

Gregory > Ray

Nope see the whole post. I'm not sure what you're referring to

[MSalmon]

So Ray gets a weed pass but Gregory doesn't?

Gregory > Ray

Gregory had his weed issues long before Ray. Ray just slipped up..

[Sobeit]

Unless you're a secret scout, none of the published (available to us Message board types) had him remotely projected in top ten prior to combine. Is he going to be good..? Who knows. But did he rise in value with the Gregory and Ray off field issues and his combine? Yup. And his play is still inconsistent on tape. Not even close to Ray, Beasley, fowler, or even Gregory in terms of what you expect to see in a top ten player on film

Not at all it is just a matter of sources. If you need a reference Hunter blew up the combine and he is still seen as a 2nd to 3rd round prospect nothing has changed with him. Do not get me started on Hunter though people are sleeping on him he is going to be a very good pro if he lands in the right spot. Dupree did not suddenly become the 5th best prospect and start getting kicked around as a 1st round prospect since the combine. He just started getting the hype when he blew it up, and people started thinking he could creep up boards.

Edited April 29, 2015 by Sobeit

[MSalmon]

Not at all it is just a matter of sources. If you need a reference Hunter blew up the combine and he is still seen as a 2nd to 3rd round prospect nothing has changed with him. Do not get me started on Hunter though people are sleeping on him he is going to be a very good pro if he lands in the right spot. Dupree did not suddenly become the 5th best prospect and start getting kicked around as a 1st round prospect since the combine. He just started getting the hype when he blew it up, and people started thinking he could creep up boards.

I actually like Hunter. Think he'll be a great pro. While Dupree was viewed 5th or 6th best, you can't say he was projected top ten prior to combine. No argument he was a first round guy all along.

But in this scenario were discussing Hunter makes more sense, because he's better value taken later with a similar ceiling. So why take the 5th best at 8 when you can grab a Hunter or Orchard in second or third and get similar productivity?

[Robb4242]

Usually, the mocker fockers and even casual draft junkies on here can nail down at least our first pick. But, what an intriguing draft this years is turning out to be. We all know we need an edge rusher, regardless of round taken. It's needed. It's legit to assume that the leading edge rushers are being scouted heavily by the Falcons. Now let's look at how they've all "trended" since the combine.

For example at combine time the following prospects were legit targets for us at 8 overall:

1) Fowler

2) Beasley

3) Gregory

4) Ray

Post combine, Beasley exploded with an excellent workout. Fowler was pretty good, but now Dupree has a heckuva workout! Gregory had a decent workout but was skinny. So post combine the edge prospects for 8 overall were:

1) Fowler

2) Beasley

3) Gregory (still legit 8 overall at this point)

4) Ray

5) Dupree

Post combine we had two major things occur:

1) Gregory is still skinny and has drug issues

2) Ray is hurt and his workout suffers

So now the edge prospects for 8 overall are as follows:

1) Fowler

2) Beasly

3) Dupree (even though tape isn't great

4) Ray (still there)

Now flash forward to present day and we see Ray busted for weed. So now the value of Beasley and Fowler really shoot through the roof. So now the original edge prospects are PROJECTED at the following pick range:

1) Fowler (top 5)

2) Beasley (top 5)

3) Gregory (late first, early second round)

4) Ray (late first , early second)

4) Dupree (top 15-20 talent wise, but athletically could be top 5)

So, assuming we don't trade up or down and stay at 8 overall, our EDGE prospects are narrowed to

1) Dupree

2) pray Beasley or Fowler fall

hete are the teams ahead of us who could use a stud edge rusher:

1) Jacksonville

2) Redskins

3) NY Jets

4) Chicago

The following teams could go Edge rusher, but most likely won't:

1) Tennessee

2) Oakland

So logically, if 4 teams have legit need for an edge rusher and 2 other teams could justify the picking of an edge rusher and only Fowler and Beasley maintain the "top 5" label where does that leave Atlanta?

Now remember, it's arguable that even Dupree has seen his value rise since Gregory and Ray fell.

So there's 3 possible edge guys that have top 10 labels but 4, and possibly 6 teams ahead of us could go Edge rusher as their first pick.

So here are our options as I see them:

1) Stay at 8--hope Fowler, Beasley or Dupree is available but go BPA whether it's Gurley, Scherff or even Peat (OT)

2) Trade up--grab fowler or Beasley

3) Trade back and grab a EDGE rusher with character concerns and some physical concerns in Gregory (weight and pot) or Ray (foot and pot)

4) Trade back and target say a Landin Collins, a cb or even a rb and look for an EDGE guy in rounds 2 or later

I'm thinking either option 2 or 4 I'm trading up if possible for Vic or Fowler ...or trading back and targeting Landon Collins or Gurley

Your thoughts?

This is a hard draft to nail down for more than just us, and that makes it even harder to try and nail down what the Falcons are going to do. This is not a great draft talent-wise top to bottom. It doesn't help with guys who could be top 15 picks being stupid either.

You are right that the Ray/Gregory issues have pushed up Dupree's value, along with Fowler & Beasley. Dupree has a ceiling, due to Ray & Gregory's drop, though probably around 10 or 12 unless somebody panics (praying we're not the ones panicking). I still doubt Beasley is pushed into the top 5 because of the issues too.

It's still possible that teams can draft based on where the players should be, putting Dupree around 20 and Beasley in his 12-15 slot, but I doubt that happens, they are going to get inflated value to fill the void left by Ray & Gregory. So one big question that will have a major factor in how this draft plays out, do the remaining edge guys get overdrafted or do teams stay smart and draft players about where they should be?

I think (hope) that we are not dead set on a 1st round edge rusher. If we are, we're going to make a mistake in this draft because we're either going to overdraft Beasley or Dupree or we're going to trade away solid potential picks in the 2nd/3rd/4th rounds to move up to get Fowler. Fowler isn't worth moving up to get. He's the best edge guy in the draft given everything (health + talent + off-field), but not worth giving up what we need to get him at 3. The only player in this draft worth moving up to get is Leonard Williams (and you can argue, correctly IMO, that doing so will improve our pass rush).

There is still pass rushing talent in the 2nd/3rd rounds. Kikaha, the best pure pass rusher in this draft, will be available at 42 and would provide a quicker boost to our pass rush than Dupree at 8. There are others (Mauldin/Orchard) that will be there as well. Each has a few more question marks than the 1st round candidates, but still they are capable of improving our pass rush. So I don't think there is any reason to lock in on a 1st round edge rusher. Stick at 8 and draft the BPA, whether that be Scherff, Peat, Gurley, or White/Cooper, or trade back a little and take Collins.

[MSalmon]

This is a hard draft to nail down for more than just us, and that makes it even harder to try and nail down what the Falcons are going to do. This is not a great draft talent-wise top to bottom. It doesn't help with guys who could be top 15 picks being stupid either.

You are right that the Ray/Gregory issues have pushed up Dupree's value, along with Fowler & Beasley. Dupree has a ceiling, due to Ray & Gregory's drop, though probably around 10 or 12 unless somebody panics (praying we're not the ones panicking). I still doubt Beasley is pushed into the top 5 because of the issues too.

It's still possible that teams can draft based on where the players should be, putting Dupree around 20 and Beasley in his 12-15 slot, but I doubt that happens, they are going to get inflated value to fill the void left by Ray & Gregory. So one big question that will have a major factor in how this draft plays out, do the remaining edge guys get overdrafted or do teams stay smart and draft players about where they should be?

I think (hope) that we are not dead set on a 1st round edge rusher. If we are, we're going to make a mistake in this draft because we're either going to overdraft Beasley or Dupree or we're going to trade away solid potential picks in the 2nd/3rd/4th rounds to move up to get Fowler. Fowler isn't worth moving up to get. He's the best edge guy in the draft given everything (health + talent + off-field), but not worth giving up what we need to get him at 3. The only player in this draft worth moving up to get is Leonard Williams (and you can argue, correctly IMO, that doing so will improve our pass rush).

There is still pass rushing talent in the 2nd/3rd rounds. Kikaha, the best pure pass rusher in this draft, will be available at 42 and would provide a quicker boost to our pass rush than Dupree at 8. There are others (Mauldin/Orchard) that will be there as well. Each has a few more question marks than the 1st round candidates, but still they are capable of improving our pass rush. So I don't think there is any reason to lock in on a 1st round edge rusher. Stick at 8 and draft the BPA, whether that be Scherff, Peat, Gurley, or White/Cooper, or trade back a little and take Collins.

Well said. I'm kinda either move up for Beasley or Williams or move back and do as you say.

Beyond those two defenders I say go back and I'd be great with any of the players you named.

Yes, Dupree, really shot up with combine. His tape just isn't that good

[Maltese Falcon]

I really am starting to think, and this is just a hunch...The Falcons Draft Board might actually say: 1. Williams 2. Ray.

Trade up for Williams. Trade down for Ray.

There seems to be some blatant repeated smokiness of Fowler, Beasley, Gurley, Gregory, Dupree to ATL.

Edited April 29, 2015 by Maltese Falcon

[Kaptain Krazy]

Gregory had his weed issues long before Ray. Ray just slipped up..

Actually, there were reports after Ray's arrest that he failed a drug test at Mizzou his first year. So his arrest was him getting caught again, not a one-time slip up.

[ZoneOne01]

Ray and Gregory really screwed us with their inability to control themselves.

I really do believe that trading down is our best solution going forward. Grab an extra pick and go BPA preferably on defense. Our defense can still use an influx of talent. Cornerback, linebacker, etc. It doesn't even matter to me. Give Quinn an extra piece to work with while using the rest of the draft to go BPA.