I Keep Seeing People Claim Falcons Need A Pick That Lasts Over 4 Yrs

[xskyx]

Explain to me why a pick needs to last longer than the rookie contract?

If the Falcons get 4 solid years from a pick, then they are worth using a pick on.

Players walk in FA every year. It is a business and you can't draft team loyalty. You draft knowing that you need 4 good years. Anything after that is a bonus.

I hate seeing guys on here expect to draft a 10 year player assuming that they will stay here for 10 years.

/end rant

[Tribal Chief]

I hate seeing guys on here expect to draft a 10 year player assuming that they will stay here for 10 years.

/end rant

I was actually thinking about this earlier after reading someone say something about an offensive lineman being on the team the next decade. Nah, that ain't guaranteed. Heck, Julio isn't guaranteed to follow in Roddy's shoes. Trufant ain't guaranteed to spend his career in Atlanta.

[xskyx]

I was actually thinking about this earlier after reading someone say something about an offensive lineman being on the team the next decade. Nah, that ain't guaranteed. Heck, Julio isn't guaranteed to follow in Roddy's shoes. Trufant ain't guaranteed to spend his career in Atlanta.

Right? Everyone expects to draft a lifer. Chances are the player, if he's a stud, will want big money and will hit FA. Draft who will give you the best 4 years and be happy with it. Don't count on a maybe 4 years later.

[nbostp]

I agree with this in theory. However if the guy you are drafting is that good it isn't automatic that he hits FA in 4 years. That's what the franchise tag is for.

[xskyx]

I agree with this in theory. However if the guy you are drafting is that good it isn't automatic that he hits FA in 4 years. That's what the franchise tag is for.

So you get another year and piss the player off

[nbostp]

So you get another year and piss the player off

If you think the guy is leaving via FA anyway who cares if you piss him off?

[thanat0s]

Yeah, most players aren't in this league long. That's one reason I'm not 100% ready to give Julio a big contract. We will have gotten a lot of solid years out of him. I'd have to seriously consider grooming his replacement until the day comes I can't franchise him anymore.

[xskyx]

Yeah, most players aren't in this league long. That's one reason I'm not 100% ready to give Julio a big contract. We will have gotten a lot of solid years out of him. I'd have to seriously consider grooming his replacement until the day comes I can't franchise him anymore.

Wouldn't hurt to grab a wr in the 4th or so. Supposed to be another deep class

[McNulty]

For the most part a rookie isn't good his first season or two. A good example is Alford. He's stunk for two years and if he has two good years and leaves, it wasn't a good pick

[g-dawg]

Explain to me why a pick needs to last longer than the rookie contract?

If the Falcons get 4 solid years from a pick, then they are worth using a pick on.

Players walk in FA every year. It is a business and you can't draft team loyalty. You draft knowing that you need 4 good years. Anything after that is a bonus.

I hate seeing guys on here expect to draft a 10 year player assuming that they will stay here for 10 years.

/end rant

this is simple really....

What is free agency? you get to pick thru other teams leftovers - if an NFL team does not re-sign or tag a marquee free agent coming off his rookie contract - there is usually a dayum good reason why. We have seen over the years where very few top guys actually hit free agency.

The entire goal that every reputable GM states is to draft well and re-sign their own star players - free agency is supposed to be a supplement.

If we draft Gurley, use him up for four/five years and then he leaves and we choose not to re-sign him - because he is injured or his shelf-life is too short - then that means we used a 1st round pick - a team's most valuable commodity - and we only got a 4-5 year return - when the goal is an 8-10 year return - so we got half of what our goal was.

class dismissed

[thanat0s]

Wouldn't hurt to grab a wr in the 4th or so. Supposed to be another deep class

I could deal with some Justin Hardy.

[LookAboutFalcon]

Cause that's how you build a team for long term success.

[putnam6]

Right? Everyone expects to draft a lifer. Chances are the player, if he's a stud, will want big money and will hit FA. Draft who will give you the best 4 years and be happy with it. Don't count on a maybe 4 years later.

That kind of kills the drafting raw developmental players, still get what you are saying there will always be turnover but if you can sync up some key positions you can make a run for 5-6 years.

[Jigglypuff]

What is free agency? you get to pick thru other teams leftovers - if an NFL team does not re-sign or tag a marquee free agent coming off his rookie contract - there is usually a dayum good reason why. We have seen over the years where very few top guys actually hit free agency.

The entire goal that every reputable GM states is to draft well and re-sign their own star players - free agency is supposed to be a supplement.

If we draft Gurley, use him up for four/five years and then he leaves and we choose not to re-sign him - because he is injured or his shelf-life is too short - then that means we used a 1st round pick - a team's most valuable commodity - and we only got a 4-5 year return - when the goal is an 8-10 year return - so we got half of what our goal was.

*cough cough* S. Weatherspoon & C. Peters *cough*

*cough cough* Adrian Peterson 8 years*cough cough*

[LookAboutFalcon]

*cough cough* S. Weatherspoon & C. Peters *cough*

*cough cough* Adrian Peterson 8 years*cough cough*

[Jigglypuff]

oh yeah... and *cough* brent grimes *cough* *cough*

[AndySG]

That's one of my concerns with Dupree and Thompson. Don't want to spend years training them up just to see them become great in their last year and we have to either pay them big money or let them spend their prime elsewhere.

[Scruitt]

this is simple really....

What is free agency? you get to pick thru other teams leftovers - if an NFL team does not re-sign or tag a marquee free agent coming off his rookie contract - there is usually a dayum good reason why. We have seen over the years where very few top guys actually hit free agency.

The entire goal that every reputable GM states is to draft well and re-sign their own star players - free agency is supposed to be a supplement.

If we draft Gurley, use him up for four/five years and then he leaves and we choose not to re-sign him - because he is injured or his shelf-life is too short - then that means we used a 1st round pick - a team's most valuable commodity - and we only got a 4-5 year return - when the goal is an 8-10 year return - so we got half of what our goal was.

class dismissed

Took him to school!

[Tuggle'2]

Make anywhere close to a habit of picking in the top 10, and even worse losing said top 10 pick within 4yrs, you should just give the heck up. Won't be winning much of anything.

[Free Radical]

Explain to me why a pick needs to last longer than the rookie contract?

Because that's what you should expect from a Top 10 pick, a franchise player.

[Power I]

Because that's what you should expect from a Top 10 pick, a franchise player.

And unfortunately we're about to have our fourth one on the team. The biggest problem is the 3 currently on the team were all offense and that's how you end up with the worst defense in the league.

[Robb4242]

Explain to me why a pick needs to last longer than the rookie contract?

If the Falcons get 4 solid years from a pick, then they are worth using a pick on.

Players walk in FA every year. It is a business and you can't draft team loyalty. You draft knowing that you need 4 good years. Anything after that is a bonus.

I hate seeing guys on here expect to draft a 10 year player assuming that they will stay here for 10 years.

/end rant

I think part of the thought is that you want a guy who can be a 10 year player in the league. If he's played well enough on his rookie deal, then you're going to do everything you can to retain him. That's the goal. If he walks after the rookie deal, he walks & we got 4 good years, then so be it. Like you say, it is a business. But, the bottom line is you want to draft a guy who has the talent, desire, lack of injuries, and character to be a 10 year player.

* I was not in, nor have I seen the original discussions that you were talking about, but I have talked about drafting players who will be playing for a decade or more & that's what I mean by it.

[FalconFanSince1970]

Let's examine some of Dimi's "ten year" players who have made it to their second contract:

Matt Ryan - excellent draft pick. arguably a top eight QB. Worth the second contract

Sam Baker - a fragile T-Rex with one good year. His contract year. Worst second contract in Dimi's tenure

Harry Douglas - couldn't find an end zone to save his life. Cut in the middle of his second contract

Thomas DeCoud - one good year in Nolan's smoke and mirrors defense. Got paid and got spayed in the middle of his second contract

Kroy Biermann - fairly solid player. Many think he should be cut right now though. Or upgraded with a 2015 rookie

Peria Jerry - to this day I don't know why we gave him a second contract. He apparently didn't either and quit the team on his own

William Moore - another solid player, however, quite injury prone and hasn't played well since he signed his second contract

Joe Hawley - solid player with some injury history. Jury's still out on him a bit though

Cliff Matthews - pretty nondescript player whose resigning was questioned by many TATFers

So of the thirty or so players drafted between 2008-2011 who could have been second contract eligible, we resigned nine of them. Of those nine only one, maybe two appear to have been worth it. In all likelihood just one will hit the ten year watermark. I don't think Dimi got the draft ten year players memo.

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

Explain to me why a pick needs to last longer than the rookie contract?

If the Falcons get 4 solid years from a pick, then they are worth using a pick on.

Players walk in FA every year. It is a business and you can't draft team loyalty. You draft knowing that you need 4 good years. Anything after that is a bonus.

I hate seeing guys on here expect to draft a 10 year player assuming that they will stay here for 10 years.

/end rant

The first round allows you access to that given year's best prospects. The prospects most likely to turn into long term starters.

As such, you want to emerge from the first round with a guy that can provide you with quality play for the first 5 years PLUS a second contract's worth of production. You can make up for not getting that from 1st rounders by getting it later in the draft but the likelihood of finding a long term (7+ years) quality starter in the later rounds is much much lower.

Finding good players is difficult. So when you find them, you try to keep them.

Every year players DO walk. But fewer "great" players walk....especially now that we're fully into the era of 5th year options. Suh was the last of the highly paid rookies which is why he was allowed to walk. Now that that's all gone? Players will only be allowed to walk if their team feels they can replace their value easily and/or they're approaching an advanced age.

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

Make anywhere close to a habit of picking in the top 10, and even worse losing said top 10 pick within 4yrs, you should just give the heck up. Won't be winning much of anything.

Isn't this basically the Raiders model?

People don't get it...