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Kayoh's Full First Round Mock - What Makes Sense To Me


Kayoh
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I guarantee you that after pick 1, this is going to be one of the weirdest 2015 mocks you'll see in 2015.

WARNING: This isn't what I think will happen,

it's what I think should happen.

In other words, this is what would happen if I was the GM of each team as the picks rolled in.

1. Tampa Bay selects Jameis Winston. This is a lock to happen now, plus it makes the most sense. If I had to rank QBs from the last 5 drafts, Winston would be between Bridgewater and Newton. He's a franchise changer; I could see Jameis being a top 10 QB in the NFL within 3 years, especially with the weapons they've got in Tampa.

2. Tennessee selects Amari Cooper. Tennessee has receivers that could be great, but haven't lived up to their potential. Amari Cooper is the most NFL ready WR prospect in this class, and if the Titans are ready to go all-in on the Mett project (which I think they are), they need to get a true #1 option - enter Cooper.

3. Jacksonville selects Randy Gregory. Gregory is the best LEO prospect in this class, and you should be thanking me Jacksonville fans, because I really ******* want Gregory in Atlanta. Length, bend, explosiveness, strength, just everything. A franchise changing defensive player, to quote my boy Brett Kollman.

4. Oakland selects Vic Beasley. Oakland's got a bunch of great run defenders - Ellis, Tuck, Mack, plus Lofton and Dan Williams, so Leonard Williams would be excessive here. What they don't have is a #1 pass rusher. Khalil Mack is an excellent supplementary pass rusher, and an amazing run defender, but Oakland needs their ace, and that's what Beasley provides.

5. Washington selects Marcus Peters. Washington keeps screwing around with day 2 corners, and they aren't working. They needs a true #1 CB, and Peters fits that role. Peters followed #1 receivers at UW, so his coverage statistics aren't eye-popping, but he's the best CB in this class by a wide margin. He's also coming from the same system that Falcons CB Desmond Trufant came from, and Trufant's transition to the NFL was extremely smooth.

6. New York selects Alvin Dupree. A bit early some might say, but he's the clear cut best EDGE prospect left on the board imo. NYJ haven't had a top level edge rusher since Abraham left in 2006. Dante Fowler isn't a good enough athlete to warrant this pick, and Shane Ray is too small and stiff to fit this scheme. The Jets don't need another defensive lineman, and I think Fitz is a quality NFL QB, especially now that he'll have Marshall, Decker and Kerley to work with. Pass rush takes priority here.

7. Chicago selects Henry Anderson. Chicago is transitioning Vic Fangio's 3-4, and they've got two huge needs: RDE and NT. NTs can be had in later rounds, but there isn't a better 3-4 DE in this class than Anderson. He can do everything that Leonard Williams can do, but he's got a significantly better first step, and is a much better pass rusher. Chicago already has Ray McDonald, and now they've got their own version of Justin Smith.

8. Atlanta selects Kevin White. With no elite EDGE prospects left on the board, the Falcons go with BPA and draft White, who they can pair with Julio on the outside to give the already weak secondaries in the NFCS even worse nightmares. This move allows Roddy White to move into the slot, where he averaged about 0.18 more YPRR run in 2014 than when he was outside.

9. New York selects Jake Fisher. The Giants need a RT to push Pugh inside to guard. You don't want a guy like Collins or Scherff here - they're both better suited at G than T and you'd just end up with a bunch of guys who can't play tackle. Fisher is the best T prospect in this class imo, and at 6'6 305 with adequate arm length, he's one of the very few OLinemen in this class that I'd trust to block NFL edge rushers and not get his QB killed.

10. St. Louis selects Devante Parker. The Rams have receivers, but none of them are a true #1. Pettis proved in 2014 that he can be an extremely reliable target, but he isn't a guy that defenses need to pay special attention to. Austin is a guy who you've got to manufacture touches for. Bailey is an absolutely ideal slot receiver, and I'd argue he's probably the best player in this WR corps. Parker is a guy who can be your #1, draw coverage, take the top off a defense, and get open without the need to manufacture touches for him.

11. Minnesota selects Brandon Scherff. Minnesota needs a guy at LG who can relieve some of the pressure on Matt Kalil, and while I like Ali Marpet more in a zone blocking scheme, Scherff is a power player and a guy who can move bodies off the snap. Scherff needs work in pass pro, but he's still an upgrade over Charlie Johnson.

12. Cleveland selects Carl Davis. I've actually got Davis graded slightly ahead of Henry Anderson as a 3-4 DE, but he isn't a guy you should expect to play more than ~600 snaps a season. Fangio uses his DEs on every snap possible, and that's something Anderson can do, but Davis not so much. That's not a problem for Cleveland though, since only one of their DLinemen (Desmond Bryant) played more than 511 snaps in 2014. Carl Davis is the most disruptive interior defensive lineman in this class. You watch him play and he can win with power or quickness, he's got solid hand usage, and he's shockingly fast in pursuit for a man his size.

13. New Orleans selects Byron Jones. It breaks my heart to do this - I ******* love Byron. But at the end of the day, I don't think there's a better pick for New Orleans in this situation. They've got a decent edge duo - Spencer and Galette. The secondary is awful though, and fixing that all starts with finding a true #1 shutdown corner. It might have only been the ACC, but QBs throwing into Byron Jones' coverage had a passer rating of 26.3, a truly ridiculous feat. Top that off with the fact that he's a 3 sigma athlete and you just can't pass up on him in this situation.

14. Miami selects Ali Marpet. Marpet is the best ZBS guard in this class and it isn't even close. This is one of those picks where if it actually happened, a majority of the fanbase would be up in arms, but by the end of the season they'd think their FO was brilliant for the pick. This helps Brandon Albert and hopefully means they can move Pouncey back to C.

15. San Francisco selects Leonard Williams. This is the earliest spot that Leo makes sense at to me. SF needs to replace McDonald at LE since they're sticking with their 3-4 defense, and Dockett isn't it. Even if you can convince yourself that Dockett is that guy, Justin Smith is on the verge of retirement and would also need replaced. Williams is a superb run defender, but probably won't ever be an elite pass rusher, which is okay here.

16. Houston selects Cameron Erving. This was probably the easiest pick for me to make since Washington at 5. Houston's biggest need is arguably center with Chris Myers out the door, and Erving is the best C prospect we've seen in years. If that wasn't great enough, Erving also has the versatility to play just about anywhere on the OL - although I'm sure Houston is hoping to not have to use him anywhere but C.

17. San Diego selects La'el Collins. Collins is a guy who I think can play anywhere on the OL - his ideal position I think is LG, but given a year to develop I think he could play C, he's a decent backup tackle, and RG would be almost as strong a position for him as LG. I think Orlando Franklin plays RT, Fluker kicks in to RG, Dunlap sticks at LT and then Collins can play LG and finally get rid of Chad Rinehart.

18. Kansas City selects Ereck Flowers. KC's biggest need is OL, specifically RT, and Flowers is an absolute athletic freak. He's consistently able to generate a staggering amount of force at the point of attack, and that's something Charles will absolutely love. He got beat a few times by Randy Gregory, but held his own for the most part, which is very impressive.

19. Cleveland selects Owamagbe Odighizuwa. Diggy reminds me a lot of Orakpo with the way he gets pressure. He's not a bender, but everything a pass rusher can do that involves power, he's great at. Powerful, great hands, very disruptive, he's a great 3-4 OLB prospect. I think he can come in and immediately replace Sheard's role in this defense.

20. Philadelphia selects Jaelen Strong. Bradford has never had a good, big, physical target. The biggest WRs he's ever worked with were Kenny Britt and Jared Cook, two guys who infamously aren't team players and don't fight for the ball. Strong is the opposite of that mentality, while retaining the big body and athleticism.

21. Cincinnati selects Preston Smith. If there's one thing that all CIN DEs have in common, it's length. Preston Smith is 6'5 with 34" arms and at 271, he's one of the freakier athletes in this class. Smith is a guy who you can play on the edge, then kick inside to rush the passer. He's one of the very few 6'4+ guys ever who can still bend around the edge, and plays with great power to anchor vs the run.

22. Pittsburgh selects Eric Rowe. I know, I get it, the Steelers don't draft CBs in the first round. I don't care. Their biggest need right now is CB, and there's nothing close to being as dire a need as that is. If they don't take Rowe or Kevin Johnson here, they'd be stuck with a subpar edge rusher like Eli Harold, Shane Ray or Dante Fowler, who'd come in, be lucky to ever get more than 8 sacks in a season, and be labeled another bust just like Jarvis Jones has been.

23. Detroit selects Xavier Cooper. Detroit lost one of the best 3-techs in the NFL, plus Nick Fairley and C.J. Mosley. The former two have been effectively replaced with Ngata and Tyrunn Walker, but Suh's disruptiveness hasn't been anywhere near replaced. That's exactly what Cooper brings to the game. He might not have the longest arms, but he makes up for that with freakish athleticism and evasiveness that he uses to get around blocks more effectively than literally any other interior DL in this class.

24. Arizona selects Kevin Johnson. With Cromartie having signed to the Jets, Arizona needs somebody across from PP who can cover #2 receivers in man. Johnson is the best CB on the board right now and there are no top pass rushers available. There's enough ILB depth in this class to wait until later to grab one, so get your CB now, while you still can.

25. Carolina selects DJ Humphries. Humphries is the #2 pure OT on my board, behind Fisher. If we're including hybrid players, he's #3 behind Fisher and Collins. Either way, you can look at him as sort of the prototypical LT prospect. I almost had Humphries going to the Giants instead of Fisher, but Fisher's versatility and athleticism won out. You can't afford to let Michael Oher protect Cam Newton's blind side, the kid is losing years off his career. Humphries won't be flawless at first, but he'll be an upgrade over Oher, and he could be a perennial all-pro type in short time.

26. Baltimore selects Nelson Agholor. Baltimore needs a CB, but there isn't a 1st round quality CB on the board, and never reaches for players based on need. Baltimore's 1a and 1b needs right now are CB and WR, so I went with the best player on the board at 1b. Here's a guy who is neck and neck with Jaelen Strong for the 4th best WR in this class. They're completely different players, but that's what makes it so hard to rank one above the other. Agholor is a smooth route runner, sneaky fast, and adds value as a return man since BAL lost Jacoby Jones to SD. Agholor has an insane catch rate too, something that shows his ability to get open and catch the ball consistently.

27. Dallas selects Grady Jarrett. The best pure 4-3 1 tech in this class, and it's not even close. Shelton is nowhere near athletic enough to play in Dallas, while Brown and Goldman are graded below Jarrett for me. This guy is an ox, despite not being your typical 320+ pound NT. Reminds me a LOT of Timmy Jernigan, who everybody wishes they would have taken earlier in 2014.

28. Denver selects TJ Clemmings. Clemmings is an athletic freak with potential through the roof. His floor is Robert Gallery, but his ceiling is Jason Peters. He'll need special attention to become great, and when you're blocking for PFM, you're forced into being the best player you can possibly be - nothing less is acceptable. Clemmings is a perfect pick here because he can play RT for a time, they can cover him with TEs in pass pro if necessary, he can adapt to the speed of the game there, and he'll be under the tutelage of Manning and a group of vet OLinemen, headed by Clady.

29. Indianapolis selects Paul Dawson. The #1 stand up LB prospect in this class. Had a terrible showing at the Combine, but completely redeemed himself at his Pro Day with an acceptable 4.76 40 and an insane 6.76 3-cone. I wanted so badly to like Dawson as a prospect but his combine made it very difficult. He's got the best tape of any LB, but when somebody is that bad of an athlete, you just can't trust it. His Pro Day completely redeemed him , and he's back to being the #1 LB on my board. His instincts are elite and while he's a freak athlete, he's faster on the field than most due to his ability to diagnose and react.

30. Green Bay selects Stephone Anthony. Before Dawson's pro day, Anthony was my #1 ILB. He's got instincts, aggression, and he's one of the few LBs in this class who can keep up with and cover top TEs. Effective pass rusher, able to diagnose and break up plays before they develop, he's the ultimate prospect - he just needs a bit of developing. The Packers' biggest need right now is LB, so this really is the perfect pick for them.

31. New Orleans selects Eric Kendricks. This is what you call a run, folks. Dawson, Anthony and Kendricks, and suddenly there are no top flight ILBs left in this draft. Kendricks isn't the biggest, fastest or most agile guy, but he's got an excellent combination of size, speed, agility and talent. He can be a true three down defender, especially now that NO is playing more 4-3 looks than the traditional Rob Ryan 3-4 stuff.

32. New England selects Eddie Goldman. My top NT in this class. Yes, even above Shelton. Neither one of them is going to be a major contributor in the passing game, but Goldman is an impressive athlete for a man his size. His bench press number left a little to be desired at his pro day, but get him on an NFL training regimen and his upper body strength will be NFL-ready in no time. His lower body strength is head and toes above the rest of this year's NT crop, and that's far more important for NFL linemen, especially the run stuffers. Instant, day 1 starter at NT to replace Wilfork.

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