G-Dawg Mock 4.0 (4/11/2015) - Trade-Down Edition

[g-dawg]

here goes. sorry I know we all have mock draft fatigue but I'm bored.

2015 NFL Draft:

1. Tampa Bay Bucs - Jameis Winston, QB - FSU
2. Tennessee Titans- Marcus Mariota, QB - Oregon (someone could trade up for Mariota here - watch SD w/ a QB swap of Phillip Rivers and picks to Tenn)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - Dante Fowler, OLB - Florida (#1 need - strong link to this player)
4. Oakland Raiders - Leonard Williams, DE/DT - USC (everyone thinks WR here, but Reggie McKenzie knows he can get great WR in 2nd)
5. Washington Redskins - Vic Beasley, OLB - Clemson (#1 need, best player on the board - no-brainer)
6. NY Jets - Kevin White, WR - West VA (defensive coach, but time to stock the offense - even w/ B-Marsh and Decker)
7. Chicago Bears - Shane Ray, OLB - Mizzou (#1 need and highly ranked player)
8. Cleveland Browns (f/ Atlanta)* - Amari Cooper, WR - Alabama (obvious trade partner and target for Browns - makes sense for Falcons to move down for the player they want after top 3 are gone)
9. NY Giants - Trae Waynes, CB - Michigan State (Giants secondary is scary bad - #1 CB in the draft)
10. St. Louis Rams - Brandon Scherff, OG - Iowa (classic Fisher/Snead Line of Scrimmage pick - #1 need)
11. Minnesota Vikings - DeVante Parker, WR - Louisville (#1 need and best player on the board)
12. Atlanta Falcons (f/ Clev)* - Bud Dupree, OLB/DE - Kentucky (6'4", 269lbs) (while not a finished product, Bud Dupree may have the best prototype size/speed for what Dan Quinn wants to do w/ the LEO position. It is fair to say that Dupree needs to learn to use his hands better and maybe another passrush move or two, but he compares favorably to Dante Fowler who went #3 overall - both are very good overall players w/ ability to play coverage as well. Some project Dupree to be a bust - but I don't see it. Quinn will feature Dupree's strengths and will develop him - we as Falcons fans have been so accustomed to our rookies not developing that we believe all our players need to be ready and have everything they need on Day#1 - however, in Seattle, they actually develop their players.)

*Trade Details:

Atlanta Trades: #1-008 = 1,400pts

Cleveland Trades: #1-012 = 1,200pts & #3-077 = 205pts

STRENGTHS Freakish athlete with chiseled frame. Posted incredible 42-inch vertical leap and 4.56 40 at the combine while weighing 269 pounds. Outstanding power with ability to rag-doll tight ends at will. Should be an above average edge-setter. Good transition from playing run to rushing quarterback in play-action. Explosive closing burst. Willing thumper when he has a shot on running back. Can drop into space and play zone. Raw, but learning with huge growth potential as a player. Has strength at the point to be a physical edge-setter. Scouts give him plus grade for character.

WEAKNESSES Tall but not long. Wins with athleticism over skill at this point. Some scouts believe his instincts are below average, leading to hesitation. Will get caught taking bad angles to the ball. Needs to improve hand fighting. Still raw rushing the passer. Doesn't possess a go-to pass-rush move. Appears to lack urgency in-game.

SOURCES TELL US "He's a little slow to diagnose, which causes him to get a late start on plays. I would ask him to drop into space in zone dog looks and that's about it. To me, he's a pure see 'em, get 'em 3-4 rush end." -- NFC East regional scout

NFL COMPARISON Jamie Collins

BOTTOM LINE Dupree is an explosive, powerful athlete with a background in basketball. While he's been productive at Kentucky, his tape doesn't always do his potential justice. He must continue to improve as a pass rusher, but his traits are undeniable. Difference between being good and great might be his coordinator.

#2-042) Shaq Thompson, ILB/FS - Washington, 6'0", 228lbs

STRENGTHS Unmatched diversity in this year's draft. Played outside and inside as a linebacker and took snaps at safety against Stanford. Gained 456 yards rushing, averaging 7.5 yards per carry. Long, with athleticism and movement of running back playing linebacker. Like a magnet to the ball while pursuing in space. Second gear to finish the chase. Wins over top of second-level linemen. Can sink and search for cutback lanes as back-side defender against stretch plays. Glides laterally from gap to gap when playing inside. Reads the quarterback's eyes and shades the throwing lane as zone defender. Transitions easily from pursuit to coverage against play-action. Can cover running backs out of backfield. Instinctive with plus vision and twitch to make the big play. Scored four defensive touchdowns and forced three fumbles in 2014. Frequently attempts to strip ball. Fluid enough in space that safety could be a position consideration for the right team. Can be used as emergency No. 3 running back on game day. Had 19 tackles on special teams over last two seasons in kick and punt coverage. Football intelligence to process offensive and defensive playbooks. Strong work ethic and team-oriented player.

WEAKNESSES Scouts question his natural NFL fit. Needs more mass on his frame. Played under listed weight at times. Aggressive, but lacks the play strength to back up his intentions near the line of scrimmage. Fails to consistently leverage his gap when forced inside box. Too easily redirected as blitzer. Gets blasted out of gaps by pulling guards. Must develop hands to keep linemen off of him and improve at slipping blocks. Not fully utilizing explosiveness. Fails to fire downhill and attack on the other side of the line. Ducks head into contact and will lose sight of the ball. Shoulder hitter in space rather than wrap-up tackler. Motor lets up at times when pace quickens.

SOURCES TELL US "He was 219 pounds when I visited late in the season. I'm concerned about whether he will be able to keep enough weight on to be a 4-3 WILL. Until I see him actually play deep as a safety, I'm not sure that is a projection I'm comfortable making." -- AFC North scout

NFL COMPARISON Brandon Marshall (Broncos)

BOTTOM LINE Long, twitchy athlete with outstanding range to become a highly restrictive defender. Able to make plays well outside of his area against both the run and pass. With his big-play potential, Thompson could become a unique chess piece in the hands of the right defensive coordinator, but there are a growing number of teams that are beginning to struggle with whether to project Thompson as a safety or 4-3 outside linebacker.

#3-073) Ty Sambrailo, OT - Colorado State, 6'6", 311lbs

STRENGTHS: Very good initial quickness off the snap with lower body flexibility. Athletic to ride defenders on the edges, mirroring and controlling his lateral movements well. Mobile to get downfield and make plays on the perimeter to take out defenders. Consistent technique with a balanced set-and-punch. High football IQ and recognition skills, using angles well. Admirable finishing toughness and throws his body around, playing each snap as if it's his last. Looks to eliminate his man and fight through the echo of the whistle. Active eyes and keeps his head on a swivel, always looking for someone to block. Assertive and competitive leader, playing through pain. Carries himself like a professional and preaches effort and work ethic to his teammates. Charismatic personality and senior captain. Four-year starter, mostly at left tackle, but also earned snaps at right tackle and both guard spots.

WEAKNESSES: Lacks an ideal body type with a pudgy midsection and lean shoulders. Light lower body with struggles to anchor vs. bull rushers -- too easily knocked off balance. Below average functional strength and lacks the upper body power to control or stonewall rushers. Inconsistent leverage off the snap, allowing his pads to rise and leaving his chest open - too easy for rushers to attack his breast plate. Shoots his hands, but lacks ideal length and needs to improve his pop and timing. Aggressive nature tends to backfire at times, lunging and missing his block. Some durability concerns after missing two games as a senior due to a sprained left knee. Also had shoulder surgery (Jan. 2014) after a torn labrum injury early during the 2013 season. Character needs investigated after a March 2012 off-campus knife fight that required 14 stitches to the back of his shoulder and was indefinitely suspended three weeks later for allegedly beating up four freshman students at a party.

#3-077) David Johnson, RB - Northern Iowa, 6'1", 224lbs

STRENGTHS: Stout runner with strong, decisive strides as an athlete, forcing defenders to bring their big boy pants to bring him down. Looks more like a linebacker than a running back with thick build and imposing muscle tone from head to toe.

Johnson only has one gear, but he has good giddy-up and won?t slow down easily through the line of scrimmage and at the second level. His best quality is his receiving ability, displaying smooth body control, soft hands and vision after the catch to create.

WEAKNESSES: While he plays fast enough, Johnson lacks breakaway speed and can be caught from behind. Doesn?t have much shake to his run style and won?t fool defenders or create in tight spaces.

Johnson is an upright runner with some lower-body stiffness, limiting his elusiveness against next level players.

COMPARES TO: Charles Sims, Bucs -- He projects as a bigger version of Sims, who is at his best torching linebackers as a pass-catcher, working the middle of the field.

#4-107) Mitch Morse, OG - Mizzou, 6'5", 305lbs

STRENGTHS: Like Justin Britt, Morse is a functional athlete whose strengths are his patience, power and tenacity. Morse has above average initial quickness and shows balance while he "chucks" his way back in pass protection. Morse shows good patience, allowing the defender to get near him before showing a quick, powerful punch to latch and control opponents. He plays with his knees bent, helping him to absorb bull rushes and plays on his toes, allowing him to slide laterally to mirror. Morse is attentive and can handle switching off on twists and unexpected blitzes. As a run blocker, Morse is at his best turning and sealing defenders with his initial quickness or simply driving them off the ball with power. He has good (but not great) quickness and balanced when dropping back into pass protection, as well as when pulling or sprinting out to block defenders at the second level.

WEAKNESSES: He is a bit top-heavy and struggled a bit with speed rushers while at both right and left tackle. He does not possess elite balance and foot speed in his kick-slide, though he's competitive and relatively long and therefore competitors must beat him off the edge; he doesn't give it up easily. Morse will lunge to protect the edge, however, and in doing so drop his head, leaving him vulnerable to swim and spins. Though he shows impressive straight-line speed to the second level, Morse's slightly top-heavy frame and average core flexibility cause him to struggle when needing to adjust to moving targets and too often he misses these blocks.

#5-146) Nick Marshall, CB/FS - Auburn 6'1", 207lbs

STRENGTHS Has desired size and frame for cornerback position. Played cornerback at Georgia and appeared in 13 games there in 2011. Has quick feet and is able to change direction quickly. Shows ability to plant and drive forward out of backpedal. Not a banger, but showed a willingness to hit and finish in Senior Bowl. Background as quarterback could benefit his defensive awareness and football intelligence. Strong competitive drive and showed confidence in his abilities in big games.

WEAKNESSES Hasn't played cornerback in three years. Struggled with instincts and reaction time in off coverage at Senior Bowl practices. Scouts question whether he has cornerback-caliber speed. Will be new to special teams coverage units. Dismissed from Georgia after his freshman year for violation of team rules.

BOTTOM LINE Intriguing conversion prospect who is moving from quarterback to cornerback in an effort to make it in the NFL. It will take time for Marshall to go from a position of decision-making, patience and processing to one of frenetic energy and high-end athleticism. Marshall flashed at cornerback during Senior Bowl practices and his size will interest NFL teams, but his top-end speed and individual workouts will determine whether he's an NFL cornerback or a name-brand former college quarterback

#6-184) DeAndre Smelter, WR - Georgia Tech 6'2", 226lbs

STRENGTHS Big receiver with physicality to match. On hitch routes, showed shake to make first defender miss and also showed he can punish defenders with a stiff-arm. Talented after the catch. His football intelligence really stands out. Has understanding of leverage within his routes and will adjust his route to counter the defender's actions. Able to create separation underneath by pushing cornerbacks with good route speed. Consistently worked back to quarterback when plays got off schedule. Uses wide frame to box out cornerbacks on back-shoulder throws near the boundary. Wins when ball is in the air with physicality, body control, well-timed leaps and strong hands. Capable run blocker. Great competitor with mature background.

WEAKNESSES Suffered an ACL tear late in season and timetable for 2015 return is uncertain. Average foot quickness for his size, which could lead to some slowness in release against press coverage. Takes an extra step to gear down into breaks. Played just two seasons of college football. Limited exposure to full route tree in Georgia Tech's triple-option offense. Overly reliant on size and body control for catches. Ability to separate from athletic cornerbacks is a concern for scouts and has been exacerbated thanks to ACL tear.

SOURCES TELL US "I hate that he tore his ACL. We throw the phrase 'athlete' and 'competitor' around quite a bit in this business, but he embodies that. If he hadn't had a shoulder problem, I think we would be talking about him as a major leaguer right now." -- NFC Area scout

NFL COMPARISON Eric Decker

BOTTOM LINE Like Eric Decker, Smelter is a former baseball player with outstanding hand-eye coordination. Both will have entered the draft with questions lingering about a season-ending injury (Lisfranc for Decker). Smelter is an uber-athlete with a background of excellence in every sport he has played. He plays well beyond his experience level at wide receiver. His toughness, natural instincts and football intelligence should earn him a spot on a depth chart, provided there are no lasting effects from his ACL tear.

#7-225) James O'Shaunessy, TE - Illinois State, 6'4", 245lbs

STRENGTHS Athletic with ability to stress the seam and challenge vertically. Uses acceleration out of cuts and clever hand usage to create quick throwing windows. Hands catcher who plucks it away from his body. Outstanding focus with ability to finish contested catches. Foot quickness to get into routes in a hurry and shake defenders after the catch. Will work himself open if covered. Gets feet into proper position as a blocker and gives honest effort.

WEAKNESSES Shows some hip tightness when opening up and running downfield. Upright into his routes. Doesn't always find the best spots in the zone. Will allow zone windows to close on quarterback rather than working his way to safer positioning. Thin lower body. Will need to hit weights if he wants to be able to play in­line on a consistent bases.

SOURCES TELL US "Good player. I love his play speed and the way he competes hard on every throw his way." ­-- Former NFL TE and current coach

BOTTOM LINE "Basketball" tight end with plus foot quickness, concentration, hands and vertical ability. He can elevate and compete for jump balls while creating space for himself with his quickness. His blocking is a work in progress, but he could end up being a highly productive Day 3 draft pick if a team utilizes his talent properly.

#7-249) Damian Swann, CB - Georgia, 6'0", 189lbs - Georgia

STRENGTHS Natural corner who has played and can play all over field. Played in the box in dime package and used as deep safety on a few snaps. Good length pressing and crowding receivers to the sideline. At his best as bump-and-run corner playing inside leverage. Thin but physical in run support. Covered big receivers and tight ends from the slot. Blitzes like a heat-seeking missile.

WEAKNESSES Gives away a tremendous cushion in thirds coverage. Has to see it to break on it. Instincts lacking in zone coverage and takes too long to close out receivers. Feet uncooperative at times. Has issues staying wired to receivers making inside releases. Plays at one speed and lacks long speed to recover. Not in position to make interceptions. Had just five interceptions in three years as a starter. NFL COMPARISON Chris Lewis-Harris

BOTTOM LINE Gangly cornerback with spindly legs but a willingness to play physically and with great energy and effort. Swann doesn't play tightly enough in coverage or make enough plays on the ball to be a starting cornerback and doesn't have the size to transition to safety full time, but he's versatile and highly competitive and has a legitimate shot to make a team.

OVERALL COMMENTS from above draft:

• We have a REAL developer of talent now in Dan Quinn - he will see elite athleticism in Bud Dupree and Shaq Thompson and he will know how to develop those guys - both of which have playmaking ability if put in the right system and position - Quinn knows what they do best - maybe Shaq ends up being an all-pro Free Safety.
• Sambrailo and Morse both show in their scouting report that they are good getting out of their stance and getting to the 2nd level - these are traits that Kyle Shanahan needs for his Zone-Blocking system - Falcons are going to overhaul this O-Line.
• Falcons see Smelter and O'Shaunessy as high upside threats that will need 1-2 years to develop
• Nick Marshall is another developmental long corner w/ elite athleticism as was seen playing QB at Auburn.

[Adam25]

Make your first pick Randy Gregory and I love this mock. Love the rest of it tho big guy !

[g-dawg]

Make your first pick Randy Gregory and I love this mock. Love the rest of it tho big guy !

I love Randy Gregory's talent but his off-field is spooky. My guess one of the reasons he is so **** skinny is because he smokes it up as well. I like Gregory though and if we could trade down and still get him (as opposed to Dupree) I could live w/ it - just feel like if we take Gregory, it needs to be in a trade-down - if he busts due to off-field stuff, you want to mitigate the damage w/ more picks.

My mocks now will still have a tinge of "what I want" but will start to shift a little bit moreso into "what I think the Falcons might do" as well.

My general thoughts about the Falcons 2015 Draft:

• first pick will be a passrusher
• looking for a 2nd playmaker on defense in 2nd rd
• falcons will be looking for zone blockers (multiple)
• bigger running back to be tandem back w/ Freeman
• should be able to find a sleeper WR late
• should be able to find sleeper CB and FS late (diamonds in rough)

[RYNE]

Don't change your first pick at all....

Well done, got a bunch of guys I really like

[Heavy Hitter]

Throw the trade chart out it's useless. If we trade our eight pick we should get more compensation than a 3rd. Just for them moving into the top 10 and getting one of the best WR in the draft they should pay. They made us pay for Julio and they made Buffalo pay for Sammy. They sure didn't use the trade chart

I do like the players though. I would prefer Rowe instead of the RT

Edited April 11, 2015 by Heavy Hitter

[g-dawg]

Throw the trade chart out it's useless. If we trade our eight pick we should get more compensation than a 3rd. Just for them moving into the top 10 and getting one of the best WR in the draft they should pay. They made us pay for Julio and they made Buffalo pay for Sammy. They sure didn't use the trade chart

I do like the players though. I would prefer Rowe instead of the RT

you may be right that the trade chart is useless - many are saying now the price to move up is less. To move down four spots, you are not going to get much more than a 3rd round pick this year - you are certainly not getting a 2nd round pick. Maybe we could get a 3rd this year and a 4th in 2016.

to hope for more is fantasy.

[Knight of God]

I love it! This is what I don't get tho and it honestly pisses me off. How could people actually think Shaq could be a FS, but then scoff like buttholes when Collins is mentioned at FS and he played the position and played it well!

[g-dawg]

I love it! This is what I don't get tho and it honestly pisses me off. How could people actually think Shaq could be a FS, but then scoff like buttholes when Collins is mentioned at FS and he played the position and played it well!

thanks. I think QUINN could be to the Falcons, what BUDENHOLZER has been to the Hawks. Falcons will start drafting more freaky athletes now and Quinn will be able to actually get them to produce and succeed - "what does he do well, and then let's feature it" - we have heard that quote time-and-again this offseason - believe it will come to fruition.

[Knight of God]

thanks. I think QUINN could be to the Falcons, what BUDENHOLZER has been to the Hawks. Falcons will start drafting more freaky athletes now and Quinn will be able to actually get them to produce and succeed - "what does he do well, and then let's feature it" - we have heard that quote time-and-again this offseason - believe it will come to fruition.

Just tired of finesse defense man. I love the dog in this draft.

[Vandy]

thanks. I think QUINN could be to the Falcons, what BUDENHOLZER has been to the Hawks. Falcons will start drafting more freaky athletes now and Quinn will be able to actually get them to produce and succeed - "what does he do well, and then let's feature it" - we have heard that quote time-and-again this offseason - believe it will come to fruition.

I hoping for that as well. BUD turned hawks around faster than anyone imagined, I'm hoping Quinn can get it done in less than two years as well.

[freebird310]

Not bad Dawg ....if it turned out like that who could beatch ? ............

[HEIST]

Noooo O'Shaughnessy was my sleeper pick

Don't like Dupree but love the rest.

[AndySG]

I would be very happy with this.

[ATL_DirtyBirds]

Love the picks. Thought I was the only person here who liked Shaq Thompson. Love the value at the end of the draft with Johnson (potential to start at RB), Marshall, Smelter, and Swann.

Trading down if Beasley and Fowler aren't there is the best option imo.

[g-dawg]

one problem I see w/ my tradedown: If we are sitting there at #12 and Saints are sitting there at #13 with all those picks and they need an edge-rusher, I could see them leapfrogging us and grabbing Dupree. We would definitely need a strong candidate to be our "consolation prize" at #12 if Dupree went off the board between #9-11 - in this situation - guess it would be Randy Gregory - which would be fine w/ me as well - at that point, we have mitigated some of his risk by getting the 3rd rounder (which ended up being RB David Johnson in my scenario).

[g-dawg]

I love the "balance" of this draft - focusing on defense early (1st-2nd) and then, turning to the depth of this draft - which is offense in rounds 3-4. After that, just look for guys that can help and diamonds in the rough - fairly evenly distributed in rounds 5-7 between offense and defense.

getting that extra 3rd round pick really helps hit most of the needs as well.

[shockerfalcon]

You know I've been a fan of Dupree Dawg much like I was about JPP when he came out. Wouldn't mind trading back but I just don't trust the Giants. They love athletic DEs and drafting Dupree would allow them to move on from JPP next year and if I'm not mistaken Mathias is a FA next year as well. Can't see them passing on Dupree

[sirlot]

Do we really know if Quinn can develop talent? Nolan was supposed to be the ultimate schemer but could out scheme our talent. I'm over drafting projects

[g-dawg]

You know I've been a fan of Dupree Dawg much like I was about JPP when he came out. Wouldn't mind trading back but I just don't trust the Giants. They love athletic DEs and drafting Dupree would allow them to move on from JPP next year and if I'm not mistaken Mathias is a FA next year as well. Can't see them passing on Dupree

If Dupree was the only target, it would be a real risk, shocker.

If Falcons would consider Randy Gregory at that point, the odds go way up that you would get one of them at #12.

[Francis York Morgan]

I'd be thrilled with this draft if it somehow shook out this way. Really don't like Sambrailo though. Probably the only pick you had I'm 100% against. One question...have you looked at Brian Parker out of Albany? He's my favorite TE no one is talking about, think you'd really dig him. Separates himself from the other late round prospects by being such a complete TE all around, has a Jimmy Graham-esque attitude when going up for the ball. But he's also a great blocker. Not a total freak athlete with only 4.7 speed but a 6'5 dude with a 38.5" vert that he utilizes well. Could be a steal.

[g-dawg]

Do we really know if Quinn can develop talent? Nolan was supposed to be the ultimate schemer but could out scheme our talent. I'm over drafting projects

Fair enough on Quinn - we shall see.

Dupree is not exactly a project - he did produce at Kentucky on a high level. He just was not solely a passrusher like some of these other guys.

[g-dawg]

I'd be thrilled with this draft if it somehow shook out this way. Really don't like Sambrailo though. Probably the only pick you had I'm 100% against. One question...have you looked at Brian Parker out of Albany? He's my favorite TE no one is talking about, think you'd really dig him. Separates himself from the other late round prospects by being such a complete TE all around, has a Jimmy Graham-esque attitude when going up for the ball. But he's also a great blocker. Not a total freak athlete with only 4.7 speed but a 6'5 dude with a 38.5" vert that he utilizes well is a phenomenal weapon.

I will have to check him out later this week Falcan Moore. sounds promising.

[Atlantafan21]

Liked it a lot. Over drafted Marshall though.

[vel]

The funniest thing is the comparison NFL.com uses for Dupree. Would yall want Jamie Collins to play LEO here?

[FalconFanSince1969]

The funniest thing is the comparison NFL.com uses for Dupree. Would yall want Jamie Collins to play LEO here?

So play him @ WILL if thats where he ends up better at. It's not as if we don't need LB's too..