Falcan Moore's 2015 Mock Draft

[Francis York Morgan]

Posted in TATF too. For all the analysis I do on different prospects, I haven’t done a mock draft in a while…over two years, I think. Well, this’ll be breaking tradition, but I figure it’s a way to shed light on a few prospects not many have considered, and if not that, at least get my opinion out there. So here’s my 2015 mock draft, with a decent bit of explanation on each pick. Longish read, skip ahead to the bold text/videos for just picks.

((PS: I usually don’t like just showing highlights, but for the purpose of draft hype, I’ll be doing that here. Feel free to look up full games on your own time. You won’t be disappointed.))

First off, I do think there’s a good shot at us trading down. Why? Long story short, draft position. I think there’s a good shot Fowler, Beasley, and Gregory are all gone by the 8th pick. In addition, I think that Kevin White or Amari Cooper (if not both) will be available at our pick. However, there’s a horde of WR-thirsty teams underneath us. St Louis, Minnesota, and Cleveland ALL need a WR badly - that might actually be the biggest need for those teams.

Though WR is deep this draft, White and Cooper have separated themselves, and there’s a clear drop off after DeVante Parker at the position. With so many teams needing a WR in the middle and near the end of the draft, there’s going to be a serious run on WR, and with NYG unlikely to trade down if Scherff is still on the board, we’re a prime candidate. I might go so far as to say we are LIKELY to trade down this draft - something I’ve never said about any draft before this one. If our top edge rushers aren’t there, I’m almost positive we will.

That brings us to the idea of the trade down in the first place. I feel like a lot of people just throw trade downs on their drafts without actually thinking about the people involved and how it works out for both teams, so I’ve tried to explicitly avoid that. That’s why I’m looking at the Chiefs as a trading partner.

Looking at the Chiefs forums, the biggest need they have is definitely WR, and their depth at other positions on the roster is actually remarkably good after a solid FA. However, with only one true WR in Maclin, and a relatively risky one to count on all by himself, WR sticks out. Pioli has ties to the Chiefs, and we’ve made deals with them before, so it makes sense.

So, now that all that hoopla is out of the way…I say with Kevin White off the board to the Raiders at 4, Beasley to the Jags at 3, Gregory to the Skins at 5, and Fowler to the Jets at 6, we trade our 1st round pick (8) to the Chiefs for their 1st round pick (18), 2nd round pick (49) and 2016 4th. We do lose out in value a bit according to the chart, but gaining a 2nd rounder is more than worth it, and the 4th next year makes up for the loss of the 5th due to Noisegate. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have solid depth on their roster already and pair Amari Cooper with Maclin, giving Alex Smith two very dangerous weapons on top of their run game. Chiefs fans rejoice, and feel especially grateful after Parker, Strong, and Green-Beckham go off the board before the 18th pick.

After all is said and done, with the 18th pick of the 2015 NFL Draft, the Falcons select Eli Harold, the defensive end/outside linebacker out of Virginia.

It’s no secret that I love the guy, and I’d probably rank him 2nd as a LEO prospect for the Falcons, and 4th as a defensive prospect for the Falcons overall (behind Gregory and Williams). I think Ray might be a better player, but don’t think he fits the Falcons, as he’s not particularly versatile. Meanwhile, Harold is just 20 years old and has already shown serious flashes. He has the length Quinn craves, a serious chip on his shoulder, a phenomenal motor, and athletic potential out the whazoo. All of his issues can be attributed to technique and discipline. Recently saw a prospect comparison to Clay Matthews, which I thought was interesting as I hadn’t considered it at all. He’s a good size fit at LEO as well, with the potential to put on another 10 lbs and come in around 260 while likely not losing much of the burst, but playing around 250 isn’t bad at all.

Moving on, with the 42nd pick of the 2015 NFL Draft, the Falcons select Byron Jones, the cornerback/free safety from University of Connecticut.

His tape is pretty phenomenal, based on what limited stuff I could find (look up the East Carolina game). But that's not the half of it. Long story short, Jones is a freak of nature when it comes to measurables too. With 32” arms and a 6’1 stature, he epitomizes the lengthy corner we seem to be targeting lately. To add to that, Jones put up freakish numbers at the combine, setting a world record for the broad jump and coming in top 3 for everything else he did. He looked smooth in drills and ran a sub 4.5 at his Pro Day. He doesn’t just have the some of the best tape of any CB/FS in the draft, he also has one of the highest athletic ceilings in the draft period. I would argue that he’s up there with Marcus Peters and Trae Waynes as a prospect, though a lot of sites still have him as a late 2nd or 3rd rounder. I think he projects better to his original position of free safety, but his versatility gives him serious scheme flexibility.

Now, with the courteously gifted 49th pick of the 2015 NFL Draft, the Falcons select Phillip Dorsett, the wide receiver out of Miami.

I can hear the complaints already. A lot of TATFers like him, but a wide receiver? In the 2nd? With all our defensive issues? Friends, we have an aging WR corps, with Julio leading the way but White and Hester both on the wrong side of 30. Hankerson shows potential, and Weems is a solid late option, but I don’t see either being a true #2. Reedy could steal the show, but do we really want to rely on that? Dorsett is the very definition of explosive and a perfect fit for Shanahan’s offense based on short throws and YAC by getting WRs open in space. He runs crisp routes and catches the ball with soft hands, and he can line up outside, in the slot, in the backfield…wherever you need him. I can see us switching him and Roddy in the slot, and a 4 WR spread with him, Roddy, Julio and Hester is flat out dangerous. Dorsett is a first round talent on par with Brandin Cooks. Our offense will be borderline indefensible with the bad match ups he’ll create.

After that, having addressed DE, DB, and WR, with the 73rd pick of the 2015 NFL Draft, the Falcons will select Ali Marpet, the tackle/guard out of Hobart.

Ali Marpet is a name that’s been thrown around a lot here, and for good reason. As a small school prospect, Marpet dominated everyone he went against. At the Senior Bowl, though his technique clearly needed improvement, Marpet was still one of the most impressive players there. He’s yet another athletic freak, running a sub 5.0 40 at over 300 lbs and showing freakish agility and pulling ability in drills. He has the capability to be a serviceable tackle, but at guard, Marpet will shine. He does well against stronger linemen where he can use his leverage and athletic ability without worrying quite as much about his footwork and technique, which will only improve as he receives better coaching and faces stronger competition. Marpet is one of my favorite prospects in the draft period, and easily one of the best fits any team could have in a zone blocking scheme.

Continued in the second post…

Next, with their 4th round pick (done with exact numbers) of the 2015 NFL Draft, the Falcons select Xavier Cooper, a defensive tackle/defensive end out of Washington State.

Noticing a trend yet? Yeah, a lot of these players are very versatile, with the ability to play multiple positions, though they might excel at one in particular. Cooper is one of the most disruptive 3-Tech prospects I’ve seen in my entire life. With the loss of Corey Peters, and Babs likely having only a year or so left with us, we need more penetrators, and Cooper brings one of the highest ceilings as a interior disruptor in the entire draft. He showed out at the Senior Bowl, similarly to Marpet, but even before that he was an underrated beast. It’s hard to watch his style of play without getting excited about the energy and sheer physicality he brings every play.

Finally, with their 5th round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Falcons select Tyler Varga, the running back/fullback out of Yale.

This is one of my favorite picks. Varga is anything but the typical white running back. He’s one of the most complete backs in the draft, with a punishing running style complimented nicely by smooth, efficient cuts and soft hands as a receiver out of the backfield. On top of that, he’s a phenomenal blocker, both as a FB and in the passing game. Some see his skin color and remark that he’s reminiscent of Gerhart, an odd comparison given the difference in running style. Others remark more accurately that he’s like a better version of Jason Snelling. Me? I see Alfred Morris all the way, but maybe a little faster. The decisive running style with deceptively quick cutbacks make him a very difficult RB to track, and he runs through arm tackles like wet Kleenex. Varga compliments Freeman’s running style nicely while replacing Quizz’s competency as a pass blocker, but he has the potential to be a workhorse as well. Don’t sleep on this man

As TE is fairly weak this draft, I’ve been purposefully avoiding selecting one - but there’s a certain man I think has the potential to mimic Jimmy Graham’s success as a late draft choice. With their 6th round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Falcons take a chance on Brian Parker, a tight end out of Albany.

Serious draft crush here. Somehow, Parker is going largely unnoticed, with many projecting him as a UDFA. But this guy absolutely trounces most competition, and his skill set looks like something that won’t just work on inferior competition. He runs mindful, decisive routes and when he has the ball in his hands he runs like a running back, thighs churning for tough yards, making cuts that can break even the ankles of CBs. What I really love about his style is the way he catches the ball, high pointing it and using every bit of his 6’4 height to go up and get the ball, making tough catches in traffic and showing off his hands every chance he gets. He adjusts his routes well to find the ball, even on badly thrown passes. If there’s any guy with a chance to explode at the next level, it’s him. Easily my favorite underrated TE. Just try not to be impressed.

Now the Falcons use their last pick to double dip, in a sense. With their 7th round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Falcons will select Tray Walker, a cornerback out of Texas Southern.

Tray is a guy who’s slowly drawn interest as a priority free agent, but we won’t let him get that far, snatching him up with our high 7th rounder. He’s 6’2 and has already drawn several comparisons to Richard Sherman, with similar knocks to Sherman coming out of school as well as ideal size. He’s difficult to find footage on so I wound up having to look up full games, and trust me, he can play. He’s not nearly a finished product, but if there’s any CB with an exciting blend of size, athleticism, and sneaky instincts, it’s him. Learning behind our already talented secondary can only help him at the next level.

Anyways, that’s my ideal draft. If we even get a couple of those players I’ll be pretty excited. Excited to hear the board’s thoughts.

[Jerry Maguire]

I'd really like this draft. Hard to say whether all of those guys would be around but it would be a great haul I think.

[etherdome]

Very reasonable and realistic. Your draft proposal, unlike most, is very realistic. I respect that.

Moving to your choices, can you justify drafting Harold over Dupree? From what I have heard, Dupree is a true diamond in the rough.

In the second round, you made some good choices, though I think that Dorsett will need to be taken with our first choice in the second round. His blazing 40 has attracted a lot of attention. Scouts will scour his film and see what you have mentioned. This guy looks like a perfect fit for our new offense. Strange things happen on draft day. Rumors of lingering health concerns could easily push a great talent like Gurley into the second round. If that happens, then we have to make room for the guy.

Marpet is a big favorite on these boards. I like him, but I would prefer Austin Shephard (UA). I like tough, "short" college tackles to slide into the guard position. I think that AS is quick, smart and tough. I think that he would be an ideal LG in a ZBS.

The rest of your picks look reasonable to me. I'd like to read your opinion of a TE out of Massachusetts. I think his name is Sifrin.

Edited April 6, 2015 by etherdome

[newa6eoutlw]

Great draft best I've seen. I have to look up this Harper kid