Falcan Moore's 2015 Mock Draft

[Francis York Morgan]

For all the analysis I do on different prospects, I haven’t done a mock draft in a while…over two years, I think. Well, this’ll be breaking tradition, but I figure it’s a way to shed light on a few prospects not many have considered, and if not that, at least get my opinion out there. So here’s my 2015 mock draft, with a decent bit of explanation on each pick. Longish read, skip ahead to the bold text/videos for just picks.

((PS: I usually don’t like just showing highlights, but for the purpose of draft hype, I’ll be doing that here. Feel free to look up full games on your own time. You won’t be disappointed.))

First off, I do think there’s a good shot at us trading down. Why? Long story short, draft position. I think there’s a good shot Fowler, Beasley, and Gregory are all gone by the 8th pick. In addition, I think that Kevin White or Amari Cooper (if not both) will be available at our pick. However, there’s a horde of WR-thirsty teams underneath us. St Louis, Minnesota, and Cleveland ALL need a WR badly - that might actually be the biggest need for those teams.

Though WR is deep this draft, White and Cooper have separated themselves, and there’s a clear drop off after DeVante Parker at the position. With so many teams needing a WR in the middle and near the end of the draft, there’s going to be a serious run on WR, and with NYG unlikely to trade down if Scherff is still on the board, we’re a prime candidate. I might go so far as to say we are LIKELY to trade down this draft - something I’ve never said about any draft before this one. If our top edge rushers aren’t there, I’m almost positive we will.

That brings us to the idea of the trade down in the first place. I feel like a lot of people just throw trade downs on their drafts without actually thinking about the people involved and how it works out for both teams, so I’ve tried to explicitly avoid that. That’s why I’m looking at the Chiefs as a trading partner.

Looking at the Chiefs forums, the biggest need they have is definitely WR, and their depth at other positions on the roster is actually remarkably good after a solid FA. However, with only one true WR in Maclin, and a relatively risky one to count on all by himself, WR sticks out. Pioli has ties to the Chiefs, and we’ve made deals with them before, so it makes sense.

So, now that all that hoopla is out of the way…I say with Kevin White off the board to the Raiders at 4, Beasley to the Jags at 3, Gregory to the Skins at 5, and Fowler to the Jets at 6, we trade our 1st round pick (8) to the Chiefs for their 1st round pick (18), 2nd round pick (49) and 2016 4th. We do lose out in value a bit according to the chart, but gaining a 2nd rounder is more than worth it, and the 4th next year makes up for the loss of the 5th due to Noisegate. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have solid depth on their roster already and pair Amari Cooper with Maclin, giving Alex Smith two very dangerous weapons on top of their run game. Chiefs fans rejoice, and feel especially grateful after Parker, Strong, and Green-Beckham go off the board before the 18th pick.

After all is said and done, with the 18th pick of the 2015 NFL Draft, the Falcons select Eli Harold, the defensive end/outside linebacker out of Virginia.

It’s no secret that I love the guy, and I’d probably rank him 2nd as a LEO prospect for the Falcons, and 4th as a defensive prospect for the Falcons overall (behind Gregory and Williams). I think Ray might be a better player, but don’t think he fits the Falcons, as he’s not particularly versatile. Meanwhile, Harold is just 20 years old and has already shown serious flashes. He has the length Quinn craves, a serious chip on his shoulder, a phenomenal motor, and athletic potential out the whazoo. All of his issues can be attributed to technique and discipline. Recently saw a prospect comparison to Clay Matthews, which I thought was interesting as I hadn’t considered it at all. He’s a good size fit at LEO as well, with the potential to put on another 10 lbs and come in around 260 while likely not losing much of the burst, but playing around 250 isn’t bad at all.

Moving on, with the 42nd pick of the 2015 NFL Draft, the Falcons select Byron Jones, the cornerback/free safety from University of Connecticut.

His tape is pretty phenomenal, based on what limited stuff I could find (look up the East Carolina game). But that's not the half of it. Long story short, Jones is a freak of nature when it comes to measurables too. With 32” arms and a 6’1 stature, he epitomizes the lengthy corner we seem to be targeting lately. To add to that, Jones put up freakish numbers at the combine, setting a world record for the broad jump and coming in top 3 for everything else he did. He looked smooth in drills and ran a sub 4.5 at his Pro Day. He doesn’t just have the some of the best tape of any CB/FS in the draft, he also has one of the highest athletic ceilings in the draft period. I would argue that he’s up there with Marcus Peters and Trae Waynes as a prospect, though a lot of sites still have him as a late 2nd or 3rd rounder. I think he projects better to his original position of free safety, but his versatility gives him serious scheme flexibility.

Now, with the courteously gifted 49th pick of the 2015 NFL Draft, the Falcons select Phillip Dorsett, the wide receiver out of Miami.

I can hear the complaints already. A lot of TATFers like him, but a wide receiver? In the 2nd? With all our defensive issues? Friends, we have an aging WR corps, with Julio leading the way but White and Hester both on the wrong side of 30. Hankerson shows potential, and Weems is a solid late option, but I don’t see either being a true #2. Reedy could steal the show, but do we really want to rely on that? Dorsett is the very definition of explosive and a perfect fit for Shanahan’s offense based on short throws and YAC by getting WRs open in space. He runs crisp routes and catches the ball with soft hands, and he can line up outside, in the slot, in the backfield…wherever you need him. I can see us switching him and Roddy in the slot, and a 4 WR spread with him, Roddy, Julio and Hester is flat out dangerous. Dorsett is a first round talent on par with Brandin Cooks. Our offense will be borderline indefensible with the bad match ups he’ll create.

After that, having addressed DE, DB, and WR, with the 73rd pick of the 2015 NFL Draft, the Falcons will select Ali Marpet, the tackle/guard out of Hobart.

Ali Marpet is a name that’s been thrown around a lot here, and for good reason. As a small school prospect, Marpet dominated everyone he went against. At the Senior Bowl, though his technique clearly needed improvement, Marpet was still one of the most impressive players there. He’s yet another athletic freak, running a sub 5.0 40 at over 300 lbs and showing freakish agility and pulling ability in drills. He has the capability to be a serviceable tackle, but at guard, Marpet will shine. He does well against stronger linemen where he can use his leverage and athletic ability without worrying quite as much about his footwork and technique, which will only improve as he receives better coaching and faces stronger competition. Marpet is one of my favorite prospects in the draft period, and easily one of the best fits any team could have in a zone blocking scheme.

Continued in the second post…

[Francis York Morgan]

Next, with their 4th round pick (done with exact numbers) of the 2015 NFL Draft, the Falcons select Xavier Cooper, a defensive tackle/defensive end out of Washington State.

Noticing a trend yet? Yeah, a lot of these players are very versatile, with the ability to play multiple positions, though they might excel at one in particular. Cooper is one of the most disruptive 3-Tech prospects I’ve seen in my entire life. With the loss of Corey Peters, and Babs likely having only a year or so left with us, we need more penetrators, and Cooper brings one of the highest ceilings as a interior disruptor in the entire draft. He showed out at the Senior Bowl, similarly to Marpet, but even before that he was an underrated beast. It’s hard to watch his style of play without getting excited about the energy and sheer physicality he brings every play.

Finally, with their 5th round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Falcons select Tyler Varga, the running back/fullback out of Yale.

This is one of my favorite picks. Varga is anything but the typical white running back. He’s one of the most complete backs in the draft, with a punishing running style complimented nicely by smooth, efficient cuts and soft hands as a receiver out of the backfield. On top of that, he’s a phenomenal blocker, both as a FB and in the passing game. Some see his skin color and remark that he’s reminiscent of Gerhart, an odd comparison given the difference in running style. Others remark more accurately that he’s like a better version of Jason Snelling. Me? I see Alfred Morris all the way, but maybe a little faster. The decisive running style with deceptively quick cutbacks make him a very difficult RB to track, and he runs through arm tackles like wet Kleenex. Varga compliments Freeman’s running style nicely while replacing Quizz’s competency as a pass blocker, but he has the potential to be a workhorse as well. Don’t sleep on this man

As TE is fairly weak this draft, I’ve been purposefully avoiding selecting one - but there’s a certain man I think has the potential to mimic Jimmy Graham’s success as a late draft choice. With their 6th round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Falcons take a chance on Brian Parker, a tight end out of Albany.

Serious draft crush here. Somehow, Parker is going largely unnoticed, with many projecting him as a UDFA. But this guy absolutely trounces most competition, and his skill set looks like something that won’t just work on inferior competition. He runs mindful, decisive routes and when he has the ball in his hands he runs like a running back, thighs churning for tough yards, making cuts that can break even the ankles of CBs. What I really love about his style is the way he catches the ball, high pointing it and using every bit of his 6’4 height to go up and get the ball, making tough catches in traffic and showing off his hands every chance he gets. He adjusts his routes well to find the ball, even on badly thrown passes. If there’s any guy with a chance to explode at the next level, it’s him. Easily my favorite underrated TE. Just try not to be impressed.

Now the Falcons use their last pick to double dip, in a sense. With their 7th round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Falcons will select Tray Walker, a cornerback out of Texas Southern.

Tray is a guy who’s slowly drawn interest as a priority free agent, but we won’t let him get that far, snatching him up with our high 7th rounder. He’s 6’2 and has already drawn several comparisons to Richard Sherman, with similar knocks to Sherman coming out of school as well as ideal size. He’s difficult to find footage on so I wound up having to look up full games, and trust me, he can play. He’s not nearly a finished product, but if there’s any CB with an exciting blend of size, athleticism, and sneaky instincts, it’s him. Learning behind our already talented secondary can only help him at the next level.

Anyways, that’s my ideal draft. If we even get a couple of those players I’ll be pretty excited. Excited to hear the board’s thoughts.

[Tuggle'2]

Like it a lot.

[michael garvin]

Like it a lot.

"too much going on" ???? Wait til he gets drafted by the Jets and has to go live in NY

[thanat0s]

I wouldn't hate it, but honestly, we shouldn't drop back more than a handful of picks, imo. We need the best shot at an immediate impact player. I have serious doubts we find that dropping so far. Otherwise, I can only say that I'd rather take Hardy than Dorsett. Just my preference, though.

[toadfishtom]

Well done, good read.

[Francis York Morgan]

I wouldn't hate it, but honestly, we shouldn't drop back more than a handful of picks, imo. We need the best shot at an immediate impact player. I have serious doubts we find that dropping so far. Otherwise, I can only say that I'd rather take Hardy than Dorsett. Just my preference, though.

I just think it's what's realistic. KC is the team I see being most likely to trade with us. Them or the Browns (and not both their 1sts, no way in heck), maybe St Louis (only a 2 pick difference is unrealistic though). Organization ties are important. I like Hardy, but I see Dorsett as #1 WR talent that'll slip due to size. If he was 6'1 he'd be a top 20 pick, no question. Appreciate the feedback though.

Also, forgot the last 7th rounder, but feel free to say we throw that to KC I guess. I'm tired from working on this, don't feel like editing, heh.

[Atlfanstckndenver]

Simply put. One of the better mocks I've seen in a while.

[Falcanuck]

Who plays MLB? Great other than that.

[GATXBOI]

I like this draft maybe Gregory will fall to 18

[thanat0s]

I just think it's what's realistic. KC is the team I see being most likely to trade with us. Them or the Browns (and not both their 1sts, no way in heck), maybe St Louis (only a 2 pick difference is unrealistic though). Organization ties are important. I like Hardy, but I see Dorsett as #1 WR talent that'll slip due to size. If he was 6'1 he'd be a top 20 pick, no question. Appreciate the feedback though.

Also, forgot the last 7th rounder, but feel free to say we throw that to KC I guess. I'm tired from working on this, don't feel like editing, heh.

Lol. That's why I'd rather read them than create them. It's tedious work. I'm actually fine staying put and choosing among the top players at OL, DB or yes, even RB. It's better than taking the third best rusher. As deep as the talent is, i think we can find pass rush talent in rounds two or three.

[Ben Day Hoe]

I'm always a fan of trading back and getting extra picks like the Patriots always seem to do. A draft like this and a free agent running back would be hard to beat. I like the pure upside in some of these picks. Great job and detail thanks!

[Francis York Morgan]

Who plays MLB? Great other than that.

I think this is one of the weakest MLB classes in years, and I actually like Worrilow, esp with a decent defense around him. Anthony and Kendricks will be gone in the first imo, Perryman could be nice but I don't see him being Quinn's style of MLB, and I don't know where we'd draft Dawson (though I do like him). MLB is just so bad this year outside of a few top players. No value.

[GATXBOI]

Not knocking Eli he does fit the Leo criteria.. You know what I don't care who we get as long as he is a legit pass rusher.... It just hit me Quinn said there are 8-10 guys he looking at to play Leo... Maybe we do trade down I'm all with making the falcons a better team next year

#PlayoffBound

Edited April 4, 2015 by GATXBOI

[gtech1]

Best mock I've seen on this site. I think it's probably a bit too optimistic to assume all these guys will be in the spots you've mocked them to, but hey, why not hope?!?

[RYNE]

pretty good.

Got some good players, I prefer to stay at 8 though

[jfalconsp]

Not personally a fan of the RB pick considering all of the options in the draft, but love the rest. Very realistic. I don't think we go CB that early but no doubt one will be taken in the draft.

[Clark Kent™]

I would be cool with this mock, but i'm not a big fan of trade back mocks because there is such an extremely low % chance of it happening this way. Even though i'd prefer a trade back like you had.

I don't see KC would trade major picks to move up for a WR because they signed Maclin, they have Kelce who is a legitimate threat, this WR class is very deep, and they don't pass the ball enough to warrant it.

I'd like to see your thoughts on a traditional mock with our current picks. Also i noticed you didn't address LB with a high pick. Are you comfortable with Durant, Warrilow, Bartu etc?

[Francis York Morgan]

I would be cool with this mock, but i'm not a big fan of trade back mocks because there is such an extremely low % chance of it happening this way. Even though i'd prefer a trade back like you had.

I don't see KC would trade major picks to move up for a WR because they signed Maclin, they have Kelce who is a legitimate threat, this WR class is very deep, and they don't pass the ball enough to warrant it.

I'd like to see your thoughts on a traditional mock with our current picks. Also i noticed you didn't address LB with a high pick. Are you comfortable with Durant, Warrilow, Bartu etc?

If we went traditional, I probably wouldn't take Dorsett as he's a bit of a luxury pick, and I'd consider taking Conley in the 4th over Cooper. I'd be fine with Beasley or Gregory at 8 but just doubt either will be there...if they are, that's stellar. MLB is weak this year, almost any pick besides Anthony slipping to the 2nd or Dawson slipping to the 3rd is a reach imo. Don't like any late MLBs really either. Would rather wait and get premier talent.

Also yes, comfortable with Worrilow. Comfortable as well with Durant and Reeds starting, and with Shembo and Biermann backing them up. Could see us targeting Shaq Thompson if he's there in the 2nd as a WLB but not sure, I think we have bigger needs.

[Tuggle'2]

"too much going on" ???? Wait til he gets drafted by the Jets and has to go live in NY

You okay man?

What in the world are you talking about? I said "I like it a lot" talking about this mock and you come with this. Have a stroke? lol

[putnam6]

**** solid draft ….. been watching Eli Howard like his potential, got to read up or watch Jones,Parker and Walker more but like the other picks a lot. Varga is turning into this years Copeland he is on a lot of mocks and Ilike that as a sleeper pick.

[Francis York Morgan]

If there's one pick here I want you all to watch, it's Parker. He's the most slept on TE this draft by far. Watch him get drafted by some lucky team with an open-minded coach and start right away.

[Sobeit]

I would not complain I would love to trade back. Just not sure it will happen though I think we may like to.

[Sponge]

18th is too far to trade back imo. The Taints already have two 1st rd picks and with us trading back to 18th means they get to pick first too. I'd trade back to 12th or stay put @ 8.

[Atlantafan21]

I could definitely roll with this draft. The thing is, I really don't think Byron Jones will be there. I don't think Cooper will either. From everywhere I've seen, he's a late second to mid third kind of guy. I would live to take him with the 3rd round pick, as I think he can be a phenomenal DT. Him and Hageman could potentially be one of the best DT duos. So like I said, I'd love this draft, but I just can't see it happening.