southga08 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 (edited) Interesting article. Basically the authors premise is that in the NFL the way to win as a GM is not to pay players what they are worth but to pay them less than they are worth. http://skepticalsports.com/?p=1076Rules:1. Beg, borrow, steal a franchise QB2. Plug holes with veteran free agents that nobody wants3. Do not overpay for beloved veterans currently on roster4. Stock up on mid round draft picks (basically late 1st round to early 3rd round picks have a higher rate of return than any other draft slot). 5. Occasionly gamble on low cost, high risk, high upside playersIt looks like the Falcons are following this "economist" strategy so far this offseason. Big free agent signings almost never works out for the team that signs them (see: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ndamukong-suh-is-cursed).According to this study the two traits that Dimitroff has done wrong in the past have been (trading away mid round picks to move up; and overpaying his own players at end of a contract). The Falcons have not overplayed to keep their players this offseason, so that is a good sign. Edited March 16, 2015 by southga08 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukfalc Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 This is exactly right. I've believed for years, that to the best team precisely that way.-The #1 rule is "if you don't have a franchise QB, do what it takes (within reason) to get one". -Otherwise, look for value of money in free agency, which is found in the mid/lower levels of free agency and not in the big name FA's like Aso, Suh, Haynesworth, a Peppers, Mario etc.- Build via the draft and hoard draft picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theyhateme : ) Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Everyone knows that AB...shells out the big $$ and it doesn't matter if you have an injury history or not. Come to Atlanta because we will always be insanely desperate to get a name because of what the media and the fans think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mashburn*Fibonacci Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 This is exactly right. I've believed for years, that to the best team precisely that way.-The #1 rule is "if you don't have a franchise QB, do what it takes (within reason) to get one". -Otherwise, look for value of money in free agency, which is found in the mid/lower levels of free agency and not in the big name FA's like Aso, Suh, Haynesworth, a Peppers, Mario etc.- Build via the draft and hoard draft picks. no Julio? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hjerry Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Overpaying for FAs was something that we often took flack for. Now that we aren't, we're taking flack for that too.It's just like last year. We heard often that we only drafted high floor, low ceiling prospects. Last year, we started drafting more of the high ceiling, low floor types, and yet we heard flack for that too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theyhateme : ) Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Overpaying for FAs was something that we often took flack for. Now that we aren't, we're taking flack for that too.It's just like last year. We heard often that we only drafted high floor, low ceiling prospects. Last year, we started drafting more of the high ceiling, low floor types, and yet we heard flack for that too. No...now we are getting flack for just paying for injured FAs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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