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Managing Nfl's Salary Cap (Economist View) - How The Falcons Have Fared So Far


southga08
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Interesting article. Basically the authors premise is that in the NFL the way to win as a GM is not to pay players what they are worth but to pay them less than they are worth.

http://skepticalsports.com/?p=1076

Rules:

1. Beg, borrow, steal a franchise QB

2. Plug holes with veteran free agents that nobody wants

3. Do not overpay for beloved veterans currently on roster

4. Stock up on mid round draft picks (basically late 1st round to early 3rd round picks have a higher rate of return than any other draft slot).

5. Occasionly gamble on low cost, high risk, high upside players

It looks like the Falcons are following this "economist" strategy so far this offseason. Big free agent signings almost never works out for the team that signs them (see: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ndamukong-suh-is-cursed).According to this study the two traits that Dimitroff has done wrong in the past have been (trading away mid round picks to move up; and overpaying his own players at end of a contract). The Falcons have not overplayed to keep their players this offseason, so that is a good sign.

Edited by southga08
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This is exactly right. I've believed for years, that to the best team precisely that way.

-The #1 rule is "if you don't have a franchise QB, do what it takes (within reason) to get one".

-Otherwise, look for value of money in free agency, which is found in the mid/lower levels of free agency and not in the big name FA's like Aso, Suh, Haynesworth, a Peppers, Mario etc.

- Build via the draft and hoard draft picks.

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This is exactly right. I've believed for years, that to the best team precisely that way.

-The #1 rule is "if you don't have a franchise QB, do what it takes (within reason) to get one".

-Otherwise, look for value of money in free agency, which is found in the mid/lower levels of free agency and not in the big name FA's like Aso, Suh, Haynesworth, a Peppers, Mario etc.

- Build via the draft and hoard draft picks.

no Julio?
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Overpaying for FAs was something that we often took flack for. Now that we aren't, we're taking flack for that too.

It's just like last year. We heard often that we only drafted high floor, low ceiling prospects. Last year, we started drafting more of the high ceiling, low floor types, and yet we heard flack for that too.

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Overpaying for FAs was something that we often took flack for. Now that we aren't, we're taking flack for that too.

It's just like last year. We heard often that we only drafted high floor, low ceiling prospects. Last year, we started drafting more of the high ceiling, low floor types, and yet we heard flack for that too.

No...now we are getting flack for just paying for injured FAs.

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