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Awesome Analysis Of Bud Dupree's Ridiculous Upside


Kayoh
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It's worth noting, I think Za'Darius Smith is proof that Kentucky's defensive (line) coaches have no clue what they're doing. Smith looks pedestrian on film, doesn't have elite athleticism by any means whatsoever, seemingly looks barely draftable as a prospect.

That is, until he got to the East West Shrine Game. Za'Darius Smith was one of the absolute stars of the Shrine game, and that's going against better competition than what he faced most of the time at Kentucky, he was facing some of the best of the best in the entire nation rather than just facing the starting tackles in the SEC. What changed? Coaching. He had pro coaches for the first time ever and he absolutely turned on a switch that wasn't there at Kentucky.

Dan Quinn is a defensive line guru. This is his specialty. This is what he does. He took Cliff Avril from a regressing player to having two of his best career years, consecutively. He took Michael Bennett, a guy who made it through the first day of free agency in 2013 and ended up signing to the Seahawks on a one year, sub-$5m prove it deal, and turned him into a now widely considered top pass rusher in the NFL. He revived the careers of Kevin Williams, Clinton McDonald and Tony McDaniel, and arguably even O'Brien Schofield, who's now with us, and he helped coach up Jordan Hill who had 6 sacks in very limited snaps before getting injured. That's just what he does - that's his specialty.

Bud Dupree + Dan Quinn could be an incredibly deadly combination. On top of that, I can't freaking wait to see what comes of Hageman this season under Quinn's tutelage.

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Good tape. I've always been one of the few that like Smith more than Dupree but that's just me. I remember hearing about Dupree back in July and watching his tape and liking the other guy on the other side better. This opened my eyes to some things about Dupree.

Edited by datchrisb1
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It's worth noting, I think Za'Darius Smith is proof that Kentucky's defensive (line) coaches have no clue what they're doing. Smith looks pedestrian on film, doesn't have elite athleticism by any means whatsoever, seemingly looks barely draftable as a prospect.

That is, until he got to the East West Shrine Game. Za'Darius Smith was one of the absolute stars of the Shrine game, and that's going against better competition than what he faced most of the time at Kentucky, he was facing some of the best of the best in the entire nation rather than just facing the starting tackles in the SEC. What changed? Coaching. He had pro coaches for the first time ever and he absolutely turned on a switch that wasn't there at Kentucky.

Dan Quinn is a defensive line guru. This is his specialty. This is what he does. He took Cliff Avril from a regressing player to having two of his best career years, consecutively. He took Michael Bennett, a guy who made it through the first day of free agency in 2013 and ended up signing to the Seahawks on a one year, sub-$5m prove it deal, and turned him into a now widely considered top pass rusher in the NFL. He revived the careers of Kevin Williams, Clinton McDonald and Tony McDaniel, and arguably even O'Brien Schofield, who's now with us, and he helped coach up Jordan Hill who had 6 sacks in very limited snaps before getting injured. That's just what he does - that's his specialty.

Bud Dupree + Dan Quinn could be an incredibly deadly combination. On top of that, I can't freaking wait to see what comes of Hageman this season under Quinn's tutelage.

Bennett was coming off a 9 sack year before he signed with the Seahawks. Would've had a better point if you mentioned that Dan Quinn worked with Bennett as an UDFA before the Bucs snagged him off waivers.

Disagree a little about Smith but yeah I'd be excited to see what Quinn could do with Dupree. It's a dangerous slope to expect him to turn everything into gold though, would prefer a little bit more polish.

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That's the sole reason I'm fairly comfortable with taking (almost) any pass rusher in the first round...I feel like Quinn has a really good shot at coaching them up. Btw, I'm still pissed we didn't get a shot at Jordan Hill, I'd been raving about him the entire draft and even made him a highlight video (lol), biggest issue is his injuries...but when he's played, dude has been a terror. One of their DTs went down and he got a lot more playing time, like you said, 5.5 sacks in the last 6 games of the season as an "undersized" DT.

Also, really wish the stigma against "undersized" DTs would go away. It's all about leverage.

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It's worth noting, I think Za'Darius Smith is proof that Kentucky's defensive (line) coaches have no clue what they're doing. Smith looks pedestrian on film, doesn't have elite athleticism by any means whatsoever, seemingly looks barely draftable as a prospect.That is, until he got to the East West Shrine Game. Za'Darius Smith was one of the absolute stars of the Shrine game, and that's going against better competition than what he faced most of the time at Kentucky, he was facing some of the best of the best in the entire nation rather than just facing the starting tackles in the SEC. What changed? Coaching. He had pro coaches for the first time ever and he absolutely turned on a switch that wasn't there at Kentucky.Dan Quinn is a defensive line guru. This is his specialty. This is what he does. He took Cliff Avril from a regressing player to having two of his best career years, consecutively. He took Michael Bennett, a guy who made it through the first day of free agency in 2013 and ended up signing to the Seahawks on a one year, sub-$5m prove it deal, and turned him into a now widely considered top pass rusher in the NFL. He revived the careers of Kevin Williams, Clinton McDonald and Tony McDaniel, and arguably even O'Brien Schofield, who's now with us, and he helped coach up Jordan Hill who had 6 sacks in very limited snaps before getting injured. That's just what he does - that's his specialty.Bud Dupree + Dan Quinn could be an incredibly deadly combination. On top of that, I can't freaking wait to see what comes of Hageman this season under Quinn's tutelage.

Cliff Avril came off 9.5,11,9 sacks his last 3 season in Detriot. He had 8 and 5 in his 2 season in seattle if he regressed anywhere it was with the seahawks. Bennett came off 9 sacks his career high the year before his signed with seattle. Kevin Williams played exactly how he played the year before in Minny. Obrien schofield had 4 sacks in 9 games the year before he signed with the seahawks. He did not revive any of these guys careers. Quinn is good but lets not lie about what he has done

I think if theres anyone who Quinn can transform into a beast its Randy Gregory.

Edited by Jsid
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Cliff Avril came off 9.5,11,9 sacks his last 3 season in Detriot. He had 8 and 5 in his 2 season in seattle if he regressed anywhere it was with the seahawks. Bennett came off 9 sacks his career high the year before his signed with seattle. Kevin Williams played exactly how he played the year before in Minny. Obrien schofield had 4 sacks in 9 games the year before he signed with the seahawks. He did not revive any of these guys careers. Quinn is good but lets not lie about what he has done

I think if theres anyone who Quinn can transform into a beast its Randy Gregory.

I made this chart a couple weeks ago to show the regression of Cliff Avril after his 2010 season, compared to his seasons with Seattle.

364f8351bd1cbaf9493880200d4b2d02.png

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I made this chart a couple weeks ago to show the regression of Cliff Avril after his 2010 season, compared to his seasons with Seattle.364f8351bd1cbaf9493880200d4b2d02.png

If you compare 2011 vs 2014 I find 3 more sacks on 6 more attemps more impressive. Sure he had 1.68 more snaps per pressure but I would equate that more to Seattles secondary making the opposing Qbs hold the ball for a longer time compared to Detriots secondary. Avril had a bit of a down year in 2012 but I would hardly consider him regressing. Also like all the other guys that were mentioned they dint improve under Quinn rather they maintained what they were doing. I have confidence that Quinn will pick the right guy at #8 but I still say we are very thin pass rush and it would help take alot of pressure off our rookie if we could get an established guy to team up with.

My Big Board at #8:

Fowler

Beasley

Gregory

Ray

Trade down

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Kayoh you still haven't made a convincing argument for Dupree. Nobody on this board has. Everybody just points to his "athleticism" and "he's raw". That athleticism is not on tape like it should be. Even the Youtube comparison to Robert Quinn is off. Quinn showed that ability at UNC. Dupree only shows it when unblocked. Like the video pointed out, the moment he saw an OT with any kind of ability, he was nowhere to be found. The same OTs Shane Ray racked up double digit sacks again.

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Kayoh you still haven't made a convincing argument for Dupree. Nobody on this board has. Everybody just points to his "athleticism" and "he's raw". That athleticism is not on tape like it should be. Even the Youtube comparison to Robert Quinn is off. Quinn showed that ability at UNC. Dupree only shows it when unblocked. Like the video pointed out, the moment he saw an OT with any kind of ability, he was nowhere to be found. The same OTs Shane Ray racked up double digit sacks again.

I'm not sure what you want me to tell you, man. Dupree has enormous upside and his coaching at Kentucky was terrible. NFL coaching will turn him into a monster. For what it's worth, even with the terrible coaching at Kentucky and such so-called inability to get off blocks, Dupree had more sacks and TFLs at Kentucky than any of the top edge prospects not named Vic Beasley had at their respective schools. More than Ray, more than Gregory, more than Fowler, more than Preston Smith, more than Owa, more than Eli Harold. Terrible coaching, completely raw, no clue what to do with his insane athleticism, yet he still racked up more stats against the SEC than Shane Ray, Dante Fowler or Preston Smith.

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If you compare 2011 vs 2014 I find 3 more sacks on 6 more attemps more impressive. Sure he had 1.68 more snaps per pressure but I would equate that more to Seattles secondary making the opposing Qbs hold the ball for a longer time compared to Detriots secondary. Avril had a bit of a down year in 2012 but I would hardly consider him regressing. Also like all the other guys that were mentioned they dint improve under Quinn rather they maintained what they were doing. I have confidence that Quinn will pick the right guy at #8 but I still say we are very thin pass rush and it would help take alot of pressure off our rookie if we could get an established guy to team up with.

My Big Board at #8:

Fowler

Beasley

Gregory

Ray

Trade down

I like to agree with post, and I agree 100% with your rankings, I feel the exact way with the players you have in what I would also call perfect order in my mind as well. I am hoping for Fowler or Beasley..

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I'm not sure what you want me to tell you, man. Dupree has enormous upside and his coaching at Kentucky was terrible. NFL coaching will turn him into a monster. For what it's worth, even with the terrible coaching at Kentucky and such so-called inability to get off blocks, Dupree had more sacks and TFLs at Kentucky than any of the top edge prospects not named Vic Beasley had at their respective schools. More than Ray, more than Gregory, more than Fowler, more than Preston Smith, more than Owa, more than Eli Harold. Terrible coaching, completely raw, no clue what to do with his insane athleticism, yet he still racked up more stats against the SEC than Shane Ray, Dante Fowler or Preston Smith.

Dupree did that playing all four years. If any other those guys played all four years, they blow Dupree's stats away. He didn't show any development. That's not all on the coaches. No way they aren't teaching at least something. No way he doesn't pick stuff up from watching the best guys in the NFL.

The "so called inability to get off blocks" is what the films shows, not what I just say. I'm not solely focused on the stats. The only reason I pointed out Ray is because he played the same talent and beat them more consistently. Look at Fowler and when he doesn't get a sack, he's still causing problems. Dupree has a handful of good plays a game and disappears, with that "athleticism" rarely showing up. This whole "Dupree has massive upside" didn't really catch on until post-Combine. Michael Sam was SEC POTY, so we know stats aren't the only thing. It's projection to the NFL and personally, I'm not convinced Dupree's upside translates. Point him in one direction and he'll be decent. But he is stiff and will struggle to run the arc in the NFL, something he rarely showed the ability to in college.

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This whole "Dupree has massive upside" didn't really catch on until post-Combine.

This ^

Even the guy in the video didn't even make that until after the combine. Showing that he is putting a little too much stock into combine numbers.

And also agree about the Quinn comparison not being a good one. Those two plays in the video were not a good comparison in my opinion.

That's not to say that Dupree won't be good, but you are drafting him based heavily on what he could be.

I also want to see some documentation on how poor kentuckys coaching

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This ^

Even the guy in the video didn't even make that until after the combine. Showing that he is putting a little too much stock into combine numbers.

And also agree about the Quinn comparison not being a good one. Those two plays in the video were not a good comparison in my opinion.

That's not to say that Dupree won't be good, but you are drafting him based heavily on what he could be.

I also want to see some documentation on how poor kentuckys coaching

Exactly. I think you can get what I expect his production to be from a mid round guy. He's a more athletic Brooks Reed. That's just my opinion and I haven't been sold otherwise yet.

His agent is brilliant because he didn't do the more important drills: 3 Cone and 20 yard shuttle. He was atrocious. Not even top 15. At his Pro Day, he busted out a 4.47 20 yard shuttle and 7.49 3 cone drill. That's change of direction and agility, or the inability in his case. Which is why he struggles to bend and turn the corner on the OT.

I'm rooting for him to prove me wrong. But I think it's a bunch of groupthink surrounding him.

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Exactly. I think you can get what I expect his production to be from a mid round guy. He's a more athletic Brooks Reed. That's just my opinion and I haven't been sold otherwise yet.

His agent is brilliant because he didn't do the more important drills: 3 Cone and 20 yard shuttle. He was atrocious. Not even top 15. At his Pro Day, he busted out a 4.47 20 yard shuttle and 7.49 3 cone drill. That's change of direction and agility, or the inability in his case. Which is why he struggles to bend and turn the corner on the OT.

I'm rooting for him to prove me wrong. But I think it's a bunch of groupthink surrounding him.

Not every edge rusher has to be a bender. Justin Houston ran a 4.37 20 yard shuttle. Robert Quinn ran a 4.40. Aldon Smith ran a 4.50. There are two types of successful edge rushers...the benders and the exploders. Beasley can do both, but Dupree is an exploder all the way.

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Not every edge rusher has to be a bender. Justin Houston ran a 4.37 20 yard shuttle. Robert Quinn ran a 4.40. Aldon Smith ran a 4.50. There are two types of successful edge rushers...the benders and the exploders. Beasley can do both, but Dupree is an exploder all the way.

Lol there is no such thing as "benders and exploders". Either you can run the arc or you play with a more power centric game. Speed rusher or power rusher maybe.

Go look at those guys 3 cone drills. Don't ignore that part of the post. All of those guys were well better than Dupree. Grady Jarrett, a DT, was better than Dupree by a good bit. You can "explode" off the line, but if you can't turn the corner, it's pointless because you'll just get pushed out the play. He's a very straight line player. I don't see that producing in the NFL. It rarely does.

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Dan Quinn is a defensive line guru. This is his specialty. This is what he does.

- that's his specialty.

Bud Dupree + Dan Quinn could be an incredibly deadly combination. On top of that, I can't freaking wait to see what comes of Hageman this season under Quinn's tutelage.

This is exactly why I think Dupree should be the guy if Beasley isn't there. People knock in Dupree's undeveloped techniques, but you gotta remember that it usually takes about 2-3 good years for most DEs to really begin to turn the corner in the NFL, anyways. I think about a guy like Quinn coaching with a guy like Cox and the recipe for success is there. Dupree's ceiling could easily be in the stratosphere. Athleticism like his doesn't come very often, and there's no way in heII he falls past the Saints @ 13.

He's definitely not Quinn and with 32 5/8" arms he may struggle at times. Teach this kid how to use his hands and he should be effective though.

His shorter arms won't be too big of an issue. Dupree will rarely be the type of player to bull rush an OT. He'll make his money on his speed and, like you said, if he's able to develop his hand maneuvers.

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Lol there is no such thing as "benders and exploders". Either you can run the arc or you play with a more power centric game. Speed rusher or power rusher maybe.

Go look at those guys 3 cone drills. Don't ignore that part of the post. All of those guys were well better than Dupree. Grady Jarrett, a DT, was better than Dupree by a good bit. You can "explode" off the line, but if you can't turn the corner, it's pointless because you'll just get pushed out the play. He's a very straight line player. I don't see that producing in the NFL. It rarely does.

http://www.draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=254083&gif=EnergeticMessyHummingbird

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Beasleys and Duprees combine numbers are a perfect example of when to use combine numbers and when not to significantly change a players draft stock.

The reason why Beasley stocked soared after the combine was because of concerns about his weight. His tape production was amazing but everyone was dropping him assuming he was going to weigh in at like 220-230. So when he weighed in at what he did and was able to maintain his athleticism it verified at what everyone saw on tape and therefore his stock "rised" to what it should be.

Now Dupree was most peoples 5th edge rusher. He posted insane combine numbers and even after that he still remained most people number 5 edge player. Reason being is when you go back and watch the tape his athleticism doesnt stand out as much as the combine numbers show. He plays soft and doesnt look like a difference maker on the field. To me hes still my #5 guy I would still be happy with him if I were picking in the bottom 15 of the draft but no way do I take him in the top 10. I feel if you feel Dupree is a top 10 player than you falling for the combine numbers.

Gregory to me has the highest potenial out of all the edge guys. His athleticism shows out on the field. I believe its a matter of him gaining a little more weight and a teacher like Quinn and the skys the limit for him. Easily the 3rd option for me behind Beasley and Fowler.

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Lol there is no such thing as "benders and exploders". Either you can run the arc or you play with a more power centric game. Speed rusher or power rusher maybe.

Go look at those guys 3 cone drills. Don't ignore that part of the post. All of those guys were well better than Dupree. Grady Jarrett, a DT, was better than Dupree by a good bit. You can "explode" off the line, but if you can't turn the corner, it's pointless because you'll just get pushed out the play. He's a very straight line player. I don't see that producing in the NFL. It rarely does.

Read this

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He might be okay but I have never seen so many EXCUSES for a players' play on the football field in my entire life. Never seen a player so hyped off of articles, news clips, gifs, charts, figures, combine numbers, etc... and not about anything actually on the football field It's always about what he should have done, blahh, blahhh, blahhh.... Yeah, he's athletic, so what, its' a lot of track stars that flamed out year one, couldn't even make a practice squad. Personally, I don't care about athleticism if he can't actually put it on the football field. If he does "develop" then great but it's been more that went the other direction. WAY MORE!!! Coaching isn't everything, the players play on the field not the coaches. The coaches COACH, the players PLAY, its been plenty "projects" that flamed out, the last "project" we took was JA98 at the same position in the draft. I don't want a project at 8 overall, don't mind the pick up but only if we trade back.

It's just getting kind of ridiculous, its like "he's a good FOOTBALL PLAYER, but don't look at the field, ignore the tape, let me show you this chart, look at that graph, read that article, look at this 4 second clip of what HE COULD HAVE DONE, look how fast he ran that 40". I don't know I guess I'm old school about this game.

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The tape is there. His strengths and weaknesses are known. He's raw as fuuck, with the athleticism of WR in a DE's body. You don't find that very often. I don't think many expect him to come in day 1 and blow up the league. It'll be a year or so before you get him where you want him. The idea is that by that second or third year, you've got a guy that is an absolute nightmare for opposing OTs. When was the last time ATL had that?

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