2015 Dream Draft

[hjerry]

Alright, so first, a little disclaimer: This is my second mock draft, which I make annually at the halfway point of the season, and is based thusly on the first 8 games of the Regular season. I tried to base it off of only what I see now. I’d also like to add that my FA additions are based off of a projected 142 million 2015 cap. When you look at the 2014 increase and expected projections, I don’t think that is that far off. It may even be higher. I’m also assuming that we’ll have at least 2 million in rollover from 2014, as we currently have just over 3 million left to spend on added depth, when there are (more) injuries. I’d also like to note that I am assuming, at least, a top 10 pick ftm. I am also assuming that we will still be a 3-4ish hybrid type defense, just to keep things simpler.

Cuts: Justin Blalock (3.79 saved), Steven Jackson (3.75 saved), Harry Douglas (3.5 saved), Jonathan Babineaux (2,333,332 saved), Sam Baker (Post-June 1 cut, 4.5 reduction on June 1)

I’d like to note first, that I seriously considered cutting Hester as well, and replacing him with Reedy, who was a good returner during the PS. The only reason that I didn’t was b/c I thought that was too much of a turnover at the position. Harry got the axe, mostly b/c of his higher cap number. Extending Harry, to lower his cap number, and then releasing Hester, could also be an option. These moves (not counting Baker) would create roughly an additional 13.2 in cap space. Adding in the rollover, plus even a possible Julio extension to lower his 10.75 cap hit, to the already estimated roughly 32 million in cap space (based on the 142 number), this could leave us with close to 45 million in cap space, before signing our own FAs (The Julio extension should cover any escalators). That is where I am starting from.

Resigns:

Sean Weatherspoon - Don’t flame me on this one, mentor, solid when healthy, however 1yr Corey Peters type deal only

Matt Bryant - one year deals for as long as he’s still solid

Corey Peters - strong run defender, decent pass rusher, versatile

One of the NBs - one should be resigned, whoever is better this season, leaning toward Josh Wilson atm

Antone Smith - cheap, explosive in right situation, solid ST player

Eric Weems - keep him around as long as he continues to excel at ST

Drew Davis (RFA) - same as Weems

Gabe Carimi – possible swing tackle, probably a 1yr vet min contract for depth purposes

I see these moves as costing us no more than 15 million, at the most, against the 2015 cap, if that much. Honestly, I consider that on the high side. That leaves us with anywhere from 28-32 million probably, entering 2015 FA. (The reduction from Baker’s contract on June 1 would cover the rookies.)

2015 Free Agents:

Tamba Hali OLB Chiefs - This is another, I believe fair, projected cut. I said before the season began, when all the Houston threads started popping up, that the Chiefs would franchise Houston, and release Hali to cover that. Then they’d role with Houston and Dee Ford. I still believe that this will happen. Hali would be strong for us, and still provide that mentor function that Osi previously provided.

Adrian Clayborn DE Buccaneers – We need some more pass rush help, and this would be a solid and affordable addition. The Bucs refused activate his 5^th year option, and, based on their recent trade of Mark Barron, their new regime is not very fond of the previous regime’s players. Clayborn isn’t amazing, but he can be counted on for around 8 sacks a season, which would give us some stability. He’s had some injury issues, so I think that we could sign him to a one year contract for 4-5 million.

Lance Briggs LB Bears – Yes, Briggs is old (34 at the start of the 2015 season), but he is also still a solid LB in both coverage and run defense. He is also a leader, and we’ll need that for if (when?) Spoon goes down. His age will likely be why the Bears allow him to walk. This will give us, at least a short term, fix at LB. Two or three year deal.

Marshal Yanda OG Ravens – This is another one of those likely cuts. Yanda was heavily believed to be out the door, last offseason, but the Ravens retained him for one more year. With his cap hit only going to increase, and the Ravens desperate for cap space, this move seems likely, especially considering his age. We’ll need another OG, with Blalock gone, and Yanda can still play at a high level. He can take RG, and Asamoah can move to the left, or vise-versa.

Fernando Velasco OC Panthers – I actually don’t have any interest in replacing either Hawley or Konz. Hawley was solid to above-average, while Konz was fine for a backup. However, both will be coming off of season ending injuries, and it never hurts to have a little insurance. Stone might be able to fill this role, but I’d be more comfortable with a little bit more experience, just in case. Velasco is reliable and should come cheap. One year deal.

Doug Free OT Cowboys – Let me make this abundantly clear, I do not, in any way, intend to replace Holmes. I think that Holmes was good and still improving, and Schraeder is playing well as well. However, after this last season, having veteran depth on the OL, can’t be considered a bad thing, especially since it will be the linch-pin in keeping this high octane offense going. Free’s age, and previous failures, should allow for him to not be too expensive. He’s making 6.5 this season.

Zach Miller TE Seahawks – Miller was heavily rumored to be released last offseason, and only a restructuring of his contract saved him. This time around, he’s probably a goner. We don’t need a world-beater at TE. I’m in the group that thinks that a WR based offense suits us quite well. We do, however, need a reliable dump off target for when the WRs can’t get open, and Toilolo doesn’t seem quite there yet. This will give him more time to develop.

2015 Dream Draft

1^st:

Leonard Williams, DE/DT, USC

Height: 6-5 Weight: 300

Projected 40 Time: 4.91

There are already JJ Watt comparisons cropping up about this guy, and while that may be a little heavy handed, it just shows you how good he has been. They think that he can play anywhere from 3-4 DE to 4-3 DE to 4-3 DT, and probably be dominant at any of them. Many here have been asking for us to sign Suh, but I’d rather not break the bank, on just one player, especially when this could have the same effect.

2^nd:

Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn

Height: 6-2 Weight: 201

Projected 40 Time: 4.53

We need another WR. Even if I didn’t just cut Harry, I still believe this to be true. We need younger WRs at that. Coates has been injured this season, but he’s been amazing when healthy. He’s also very strong and a willing blocker, so he’ll fit right in with Julio and Roddy. This will allow Roddy to take on more of the chain moving possession receiver role, and let Hester exploit the slot, which is where he’s best used.

3^rd:

Derron Smith, S, Fresno State

Height: 5-11 Weight: 197

Projected 40 Time: 4.55

I actually like how Ishmael has been developing, and think that he has a lot of potential still to build on. I also like the potential of Southward, and McFadden, who we added back to the PS. They all have some growing to do, though, so some depth would help. Smith is much better than this round would suggest. His surrounding “talent” at Fresno St. is just so terrible, that it forces him to try and cover the whole field. His size will push him down some as well.

4^th:

Laken Tomlinson, G, Duke

Height: 6-3 Weight: 330

Projected 40 Time: 5.18

I really liked Tomlinson, coming into the season. His stock has softened somewhat, but I still see him as having a lot of potential. We don’t have much right now, in terms of OG depth.

5^th:

David Cobb, RB, Minnesota

Height: 5-11 Weight: 220

Projected 40 Time: 4.61

I feel kind of weird having a RB this late, after having Gurley in the 1^st, in version 1, but that’s just how it developed this time. Cobb is the bruiser that we need. He forces through, and rarely goes down on first contact. Pair him with Freeman and Smith, and you’ve got a nice committee to work with. We need just need a coaching staff that understands how to run RBBC. The fact that he is a Senior, will likely push him down a bit.

6^th:

Trayion Durham, FB, Kent St

Height: 6-1 Weight: 248

Projected 40 Time: 4.79

We need a better FB

7^th:

DeAnte Saunders, CB, Tennessee St.

Height: 5-10 Weight: 196

Projected 40 Time: 4.50

Some CB depth

7^th: From Rams

AJ Derby, TE, Arkansas

Height: 6-4 Weight: 246

Projected 40 Time: 5.14

Sleeper

Remember that this is my DREAM draft. I know that a lot of this is unlikely, but for now, any of this is still possible. I’m still using mostly NFLDRAFTSCOUT and Walterfootball for my stock rankings since they usually are about as close as can be come draft day, but I also supplement with a number of other sites combined with my own, albeit a lot of times flawed, analysis.

[Psychic Gibbon]

I know we have a lot of cap space but there is no way we have enough for all those moves.

That said, I'm also working on a new mock and it's nice to see that someone else:

1. Is considering a WR in the 2nd round.

2. Has taken notice of Durham.

[hjerry]

I know we have a lot of cap space but there is no way we have enough for all those moves.

That said, I'm also working on a new mock and it's nice to see that someone else:

1. Is considering a WR in the 2nd round.

2. Has taken notice of Durham.

The highest paid one will be Hali, and I doubt that any of the others have cap hits, that exceed 5 million in year one. Velasco, for instance, would be vet minimum.

Also, yes, I listed the reasons above, but we need some young help at the WR position, and not the slot receiver type.

Edit: I wouldn't mind switching out Free for a cheaper vet, if needed. I only listed him, b/c I saw him as the cheapest starting level OT on the market.

[Dirtybird#11]

That's a lot of big FA moves...

[hjerry]

To put my FA signings in perspective, here are each of their current earnings, along with average salaries from their last contracts, via spotrac.

http://www.spotrac.c...ba-hali/Â Â Avg - 11.5

http://www.spotrac.c...drian-clayborn/ Avg - 2.05

http://www.spotrac.c...s/lance-briggs/ Avg - 5.8

http://www.spotrac.c.../marshal-yanda/ Avg - 6.4

http://www.spotrac.c...rnando-velasco/ Avg - vet min

http://www.spotrac.c...boys/doug-free/ Avg - 3.5

http://www.spotrac.c...ks/zach-miller/ Avg - 3

I would imagine that Hali's new contract would average around 10 a season, with a year one cap hit of around 8 or 8.5.

Clayborn, as already stated, is being assumed on a one year 4-5 deal.

Briggs would likely average around 4 or 4.5, with a year one of like 3.5.

Yanda would average around 5, with a year one of like 4.

Velasco would be vet min.

Free would probably average around 4 or 4.5, with a year one of 3.5.

Finally, Miller would likely only garner something like 3 or 3.5, with a year one of something like 2.5

It would be close, but even if both these and our own FAs were on the high end of these projections, it would still be achievable.

[hjerry]

That's a lot of big FA moves...

Well, technically, you only have 3 guaranteed starters, and we signed more than that, this last offseason.

[youngbloodz]

Don't like cutting Harry. He is a decent receiver. I absolutely love your first pick. Leonard Williams will be a force

[Dirtybird#11]

Well, technically, you only have 3 guaranteed starters, and we signed more than that, this last offseason.

3 guaranteed starters? Uh who all I can think of is Soliai and Asamoah.

[vel]

No need for Briggs. Does not fit a 3-4 and we need to commit to that. Don't care for Velasco either. Would rather keep HD. Obvious chemistry with Ryan, Roddy and Julio.

Solid offseason though. I've been thinking about Williams a lot lately. He is a good player. Just torn on if he or a OLB would be the better move. I believe with Williams and Hageman at the 5T and Soliai and another stout NT to back him up would be a really good DL potentially. But it would require a coach playing Mass with Hali in this situation. Even Maponga.

[hjerry]

3 guaranteed starters? Uh who all I can think of is Soliai and Asamoah.

Both Lowery and Jackson were signed to be starters.

[hjerry]

Don't like cutting Harry. He is a decent receiver. I absolutely love your first pick. Leonard Williams will be a force

I don't dislike Harrry. I've defended him often. However, we need to get younger at the position, especially considering Roddy's age. Two of our top 4 WRs will be 32 or older in 2015, and Harry will turn 31 shortly after it starts. I gave reasons for why he got the axe.

[hjerry]

No need for Briggs. Does not fit a 3-4 and we need to commit to that. Don't care for Velasco either. Would rather keep HD. Obvious chemistry with Ryan, Roddy and Julio.

Solid offseason though. I've been thinking about Williams a lot lately. He is a good player. Just torn on if he or a OLB would be the better move. I believe with Williams and Hageman at the 5T and Soliai and another stout NT to back him up would be a really good DL potentially. But it would require a coach playing Mass with Hali in this situation. Even Maponga.

I'm assuming that we're more of a hybrid than simply a 3-4, as i stated at the beginning. I think that he could provide us a decent stop gap for a couple of years, while we work on other positions.

Velasco is decent, and it's only a 1yr Vet min contract.

[datchrisb1]

To many free agents for me. I've seen too often when teams pick up free agents in that great a number it never works out like you would think, always looks good on paper, never works out in real life.... Would prefer not to go the route of Dan Snyder year in year out.

[youngbloodz]

I don't dislike Harrry. I've defended him often. However, we need to get younger at the position, especially considering Roddy's age. Two of our top 4 WRs will be 32 or older in 2015, and Harry will turn 31 shortly after it starts. I gave reasons for why he got the axe.

I understand your reasons and they are valid. I just don't like the idea of Harry being cut

[Dirtybird#11]

Both Lowery and Jackson were signed to be starters.

I don't think Lowery was... He was more of a oh crap we need a FS after we already missed on Delmas,Byrd,etc. An into preseason he was in competition with Ishmael an Dez

[Rai]

I know we have a lot of cap space but there is no way we have enough for all those moves.

That said, I'm also working on a new mock and it's nice to see that someone else:

1. Is considering a WR in the 2nd round.

2. Has taken notice of Durham.

I've been making rough mocks with a WR in the 2nd too.

[hjerry]

To many free agents for me. I've seen too often when teams pick up free agents in that great a number it never works out like you would think, always looks good on paper, never works out in real life.... Would prefer not to go the route of Dan Snyder year in year out.

Not all starters, many are depth players

[hjerry]

I don't think Lowery was... He was more of a oh crap we need a FS after we already missed on Delmas,Byrd,etc. An into preseason he was in competition with Ishmael an Dez

Lowery was always the starter. He dominated first team reps.

[cnasty]

Not many complaints. It's certainly assuming a ton of unknowns, but I suppose you qualified that with this being a dream draft/offseason. I like getting Coates in the 2nd. As an AU alum and fan, he's shown some great ability in his tenure and would be great in the slot while he prepares to take over for Roddy. I don't really like bringing in Briggs at such an old age, who knows how effective he'll really be. Resigning spoon seems ill advised in that you've assumed in your own post that he will inevitably be injured. Other than that, everything seems to be on point with our needs.

[Dirtybird#11]

Lowery was always the starter. He dominated first team reps.

He is really killing it now.....

[AndySG]

I would keep Harry. We are a much better team with him there.

[hjerry]

Not many complaints. It's certainly assuming a ton of unknowns, but I suppose you qualified that with this being a dream draft/offseason. I like getting Coates in the 2nd. As an AU alum and fan, he's shown some great ability in his tenure and would be great in the slot while he prepares to take over for Roddy. I don't really like bringing in Briggs at such an old age, who knows how effective he'll really be. Resigning spoon seems ill advised in that you've assumed in your own post that he will inevitably be injured. Other than that, everything seems to be on point with our needs.

We need leadership at the LB position. I honestly think that it a major reason for the drop off. I had hoped in the offseason that Worrilow would step into that role, but it hasn't happened. I couldn't fix all the positions, so I just put a bandaid on it for now. Spoon is a leader and solid in coverage. The same is true of Briggs. Neither should cost much either.

[hjerry]

I would keep Harry. We are a much better team with him there.

That's just b/c we don't have anyone better on the outside after the top two, since Hester is a slot guy.

[rugger8]

That's a lot of free agents in their 30s.

I'd really like to get younger with a new coaching staff.

[hjerry]

That's a lot of free agents in their 30s.

I'd really like to get younger with a new coaching staff.

I took who was available, that best filled the need. The younger guys, that would help at those positions, are extremely unlikely to make it to FA.