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The Microsoft Engine That Nailed The World Cup Is Predicting Every Nfl Game


PK Manley
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http://www.businessi...s-week-1-2014-9

The Microsoft Engine That Nailed The World Cup Is Predicting Every NFL Game — Here Are Its Picks For Week 1

Microsoft's Cortana, the Windows phone virtual assistant that correctly predicted 15 of 16 World Cup knockout stage games, is back for the NFL season.

The predictions come from a model by Bing Predicts that takes into account 2013 results, offensive and defensive stats, margin of victory, location, weather, and public sentiment (which is meant to help identify real-time factors such as injuries).

Since the model just picks a winner and doesn't predict a score against the spread, the hit rate should be well over 50%.

Cortana did well at the World Cup, and even picked Germany over Brazil in the semifinal when other statistical models had Brazil as the heavy favorite. So if you're the gambling sort, it might be wise to take these picks into account.

Here are the Bing Predicts odds for Week 1:

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks — Seahawks win (74.2% chance)

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons — Falcons win (61.4% chance)

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams — Rams win (67.4% chance)

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers — Steelers win (70.2% chance)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles — Eagles win (75.4% chance)

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets — Jets win (62.9% chance)

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens — Ravens win (59.8% chance)

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears — Bears win (64.4% chance)

Washington Redskins at Houston Texans — Texans win (51% chance)

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs — Chiefs win (64.4% chance)

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins — Patriots win (61.4% chance)

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Buccaneers win (56.6% chance)

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys — 49ers win (68.8% chance)

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos — Broncos win (77.8% chance)

New York Giants at Detroit Lions — Lions win (61.4%% chance)

San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals — Cardinals win (58.2% chance)

Interestingly, Cortana picked the Vegas betting favorite in 15 of 16 Week 1 games. The only disparity is in the Saints-Falcons game. Vegas has New Orleans as a three-point favorite, while Cortana has Atlanta as a pretty big 61% favorite.

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BTW has there been a run on egg sales in the ATL this week? You know w/ the Taints coming to town ... I seen this article a few days ago, then watched the GreenBay game was like ... **** would be nice. That thing only missed one game before. I know ESPN has been posting stuff about this matchup but I think it has more to do w/ the Taints than the Falcons. I think ESPN hates Atlanta because it's the Capital of the South and they hate the South. Maybe it's got something to do with CNN, who knows all I know is they hate Atlanta.

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