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hjerry

Nflpa Files Grievance On Behalf Of Jimmy Graham

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At this point, with ESPN's Ed Werder reporting that the Texans are actively pursuing a trade with the Atlanta Falcons and "other teams" - I see this getting done.

Dimitroff is usually pretty dogged and determined when he is ready to make a trade. If Pioli was not next to him, I would say it would be about 90% chance the trade will happen. Now I still think it will happen, but would say more like 70% chance - laugh at the odds if you will - just giving you my feel - my gut.

I understand that the Texans are trying to extract a huge haul for the pick - they won't get it. Notice that Werder said "other teams" - that is code word for "there are not really any other teams but Texans want to make you think there are".

I know Texans beatwriter for Houston Chronicle (John McClain) put out for public consumption that Texans want Falcons 1st, 2nd, 4th and next year's 1st round pick - the Falcons just won't give that much up. However you can count on the Falcons giving up 2015 1st round pick because Dimitroff said as much on ESPN interview when he was asked the cost to move up to #1 and he said categorically in his usual style "as you know, to move up all the way to #1 its going to cost you a future 1st round pick and maybe something else". So, like it or not, next year's 1st round pick is gone - we will just have to hope/pray that Matt Ryan and Julio Jones and Clowney/Spoon/WillyMo all stay healthy. We need to hope that next year's 1st rounder is in the 20's.

The reason the Texans do the final deal is this - they want a QB and they know they can get one at #6. The like Khalil Mack - and there is probably a 20% chance they can get him at #6. I see the Texans eyeing three guys: Mack(1), Manziel(2) and Bortles(3). It is very close to certain that they could get at least one of those guys.

Now, back to compensation - that is "the rub" as they say. Vegas has the Falcons "over/under" on wins now at "9" I believe - that would put them drafting around #18. If you just went off pure trade chart, it would cost our #1-006, our #2-037 and 1st rounder in 2015. If Texans had maximum leverage, they would agree for not less than this package. Clearly they do not have this leverage - A) Texans won't take Clowney at #1, B ) Falcons have ability to "wait out" Texans, C) Falcons have already done a deal with Snead/Rams and will have a contingent deal in place with Rams, D) Falcons like Khalil Mack a lot as well. E) Falcons could easily switch gears and take a top-notch Offensive Tackle while keeping all their picks.

Unlike the Julio trade, the Falcons have more leverage than the Texans. So, how do I think that breaks down in a final deal. I have posted in other forums but will do so hear again:

Texans Trade:

#1-001 = 3,000pts

Falcons Trade:

#1-006 = 1,600pts

#3-068 = 250pts

#6-182 = 19pts

1st/2015 = 900pts (not discounted - assumes #18 overall)

2,769pts (about 92% of trade chart with no discounting future picks)

This still leaves most of this year's draft relatively intact. While we lose a valuable slot in #3-068 - we might have the option to slide a little back in 2nd round and possibly reclaim a later 3rd round pick - while its not the same as having early 2nd and early 3rd - we can get equivalent type players there. It will no doubt SUCK in 2015 not having a 1st round pick - but we are getting a transcendant player who is worth the cost above.

I see the Falcons being able to claim a RT/LT prospect in the 2nd round and a Free Safety prospect in late 3rd - with some type a move like above or packaging 4th/5th to move into the 3rd. I could see the Falcons ending up with something like this:

1st - Jadeveon Clowney

2nd - Jimmie Ward-FS/JaWuan James-OT/Joel Bitonio-OT

3rd - Deone Buchanon-FS/Antonio Richardson-OT

Will this hurt our depth?

sure a little.

Will it hurt our draft next year?

YES.

is it worth it? Is the Juice worth the squeeze for Jadeveon Clowney?

ABSO-FREAKIN'-LUTELY!!!

clowney.jpg

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Not buying all the Bucannon slipping into the first chatter?

no. Curtis Conway(NFLN) has gay love for Teddy Bridgewater and Deone Buchanon - he is swimming upstream on those two thoughts.

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I said all along a trade is contingent on us keeping our 2nd rounder this year, but I believe we stay where we're at and get Mathews or Lewan. And load up on all the needs we have, remember TD doesn't do BPA he'll draft each need accordingly.

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I think it's fine compensation. With the amount of money we have available next year, we can buy a first rounder in the FA crop. Get Clowney and Ward. You've added two potential game changers to your defense, along with Soliai and Jackson.

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I think it's fine compensation. With the amount of money we have available next year, we can buy a first rounder in the FA crop. Get Clowney and Ward. You've added two potential game changers to your defense, along with Soliai and Jackson.

bingo, Vel.....

my thoughts exactly - we will get a premier free agent next year and that will be our 1st rounder. we are good.

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one thing I will agree w/ you on - if its a bidding war, then Falcons need to bow out. I don't think it will be - think Bills stuff is smoke.

....

And the dozens of contradictory rumors around the Falcons isn't smoke?

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If it comes to a bidding war, TD will get outbid and I would hope for him to do so. If Clowney goes to the AFC East, I wouldn't complain about that at all.

g-dawg likes this

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Clowney is a great player, but I do not agree with giving up next year's first rounder to get him. The Falcons may have Mack #2 on their big board and won't have to give up nearly as much to get him.

The Legendary SB likes this

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I don't expect Clowney to be a Falcon tomorrow either. I would LOVE for him to be in the red and black but I just do not see it happening. There is always some team out there that is more bat sh** crazy to give up the farm than we are.

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And the dozens of contradictory rumors around the Falcons isn't smoke?

ESPN/Ed Werder - do you know him? he is credible - we are 24 hours away and he is reporting that Falcons are NEGOTIATING with Texans.......

not my definition of smoke.

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no. Curtis Conway(NFLN) has gay love for Teddy Bridgewater and Deone Buchanon - he is swimming upstream on those two thoughts.

La Canfora also thinking Bucannon in the mix for tomorrow, as high as GB at #21.

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As much of a draft nut as you are g-dawg, you're going to HATE not having a 1st next year.

yep, I will hate it. I can take a 3 month break from the messageboard - probably will be good for me personally, anyway.

La Canfora also thinking Bucannon in the mix for tomorrow, as high as GB at #21.

I am not going to lose sleep if we don't get Buchanon - he is not the key to the draft.

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Meh. I think we should stay at 6 and see who falls to us. We just might get lucky and one of our guys falls. If not, trade down a little bit.

The guy practically has to be a HOF to make it worth the price.

If we just use all our picks without trading them away we can still have an awesome draft.

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Why is Mack never mentioned as a target for the Bills. I think that is who they want. He plays at Buffalo, fits their scheme, would be a huge fan favorite as the local kid. There is no way they are moving to 1 or 2 for Robinson, imo.

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ESPN/Ed Werder - do you know him? he is credible - we are 24 hours away and he is reporting that Falcons are NEGOTIATING with Texans.......

not my definition of smoke.

Falcons have checked with every team about possibilities for trade ups and trade downs.

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Falcons have checked with every team about possibilities for trade ups and trade downs.

i think there is more to it than what you indicate above - we shall see...

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I don't see us moving up because the Bills and Bucs are possibly going to create the EXACT thing we didn't want.... a bidding war for 1 & 2.

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I don't see us moving up because the Bills and Bucs are possibly going to create the EXACT thing we didn't want.... a bidding war for 1 & 2.

I doubt it.

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