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Tdwii Observation: Don't Count The Falcons Out From Making That Move For #13...


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TDWII's First Post-FA Mock

At the beginning of the month, I posted a mock that alot of people did not take to very well. It involved the following deal/trade up scenario:

Falcons trade 37th & 68th selections in 2014 draft and 2015 1st rounder for the Rams 13th selection and their 110th selection.

While we all post mocks that contain some…aggressive scenarios. I feel somewhat more confident that the scenario I presented at the beginning of the month is actually in play. Some reasons for it.

1) A lot of trade talk surrounding the Falcons – obviously most of it is centering around a potential move up from #6 to #2/#1. A move up to #1 would cost 1400 DFC delta points after giving up the #6 pick. I don’t think Dimitroff wants to gut this years and next years draft for one player. To get Clowney, he’d have to and wouldn’t be picking again until Round 4. But while the points are somewhat similar (1150) to move up to #13, it would be tough to argue that the Falcons were hurting their 2014 draft with 2 picks in the Top 13 and 5 picks in the first 4 rounds.

2) The Rams have been rumored to want to spend a Day 2 pick on a QB – One of my reasonings for the Rams wanting to deal with us was to provide flexibility in the 2015 draft to go after a QB if they needed. The fact that they are thinking about QB in 2014 shows that this line of thinking (flexibility in Round 1 of the 2015 draft) could be on the table. Also, if the Rams are intent on drafting a QB on Day 2, via the deal scenario above, they’ll have 4 Day 2 picks instead of 2. It still gives them opportunity to bolster other positions in a deep draft.

3) Barr has fallen – Back at the beginning of the month, the chances of Barr falling to #13 were probably around 50%, maybe a little less. The chances of that happening I think have increased. Not to mention the fact that during the last month, the Falcons have spent a lot of time with Barr. While this is not rare to do with a top prospect in a need area, I don’t think the Falcons would seriously consider Barr @ 6. As for the prospect himself…while some are questioning his mentality or his instincts, I think that’s being a bit overblown because a lot of kids come into the NFL neophytes in the area of football knowledge. In the movie ‘Charlie Wilson’s War’, someone asks Charlie Wilson played by Tom Hanks why all of the women in his office are great looking to which Hanks responds…’you can teach them to type, but you can’t teach them to have big tits’. Barr has big tits. In short, I think his natural gifts are immense. I recognize Barr is a polarizing prospect so some folks will hate this move while others love it.

4) Draft trade compensation would have to be agreed to in advance of the draft – Again, I’m projecting here but I think part of our flirtation this week with Clowney has something to do with gaining some leverage. With a similar delta between what I’m proposing and moving up to select Clowney, I think if the Falcons wanted to make a move further down in the draft, they had to project a serious interest in doing so at the very top. With Les Snead and Thomas Dimitroff having a good working relationship, I think it would make sense that both would agree to a deal in advance if a certain scenario presented itself.

At this point, we’re all reading tea leaves. But I do think something like this is most definitely still on the table for the Falcons in this years draft and given the news that has emanated out of STL, I think it’s starting to make even more sense for them.

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TDWii,

you are not seriously "doubling-down" on that awful trade-up for Barr, are you?

Barr is the WRONG player.

Your offer is the WRONG deal.

Its one thing to make an aggressive move, its another to make an aggressive move for the wrong player. You have the wrong move for the wrong player. can't do it.

If Anthony Barr fell into the twenties and all you had to give up was our 2nd rounder this year and maybe a 3rd rounder the following year - then MAYBE - but right now, the juice is nowhere near worth the squeeze.

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TDWii,

you are not seriously "doubling-down" on that awful trade-up for Barr, are you?

Barr is the WRONG player.

Your offer is the WRONG deal.

Its one thing to make an aggressive move, its another to make an aggressive move for the wrong player. You have the wrong move for the wrong player. can't do it.

If Anthony Barr fell into the twenties and all you had to give up was our 2nd rounder this year and maybe a 3rd rounder the following year - then MAYBE - but right now, the juice is nowhere near worth the squeeze.

I wouldn't say I'm doubling down...but I think developments and news that have come out over the course of the last 2-3 weeks would hint more at us trading back up higher into Round 1 after picking at #6 than trading up from #6.

But I know we fall on opposite ends of the spectrum on Barr.

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I wouldn't say I'm doubling down...but I think developments and news that have come out over the course of the last 2-3 weeks would hint more at us trading back up higher into Round 1 after picking at #6 than trading up from #6.

But I know we fall on opposite ends of the spectrum on Barr.

If we loved Barr enough to give up our 2nd and 3rd rounders this year and 1st rounder in 2015 - if Falcons are "that high" on Barr, then they should just take him at #6 - or trade down for him.

I would not like either scenario - but you are pushing all your chips to the middle of the table - with the move that you advocate. To be honest, I like Jeremiah Attaochu a lot - while Barr is a better overall athlete, I would not be shocked if Attaochu or DeMarcus Lawrence or Dee Ford or Scott Crichton - all players that could likely be had at #2-037 - would not be surprised if one or two of those guys has a better career than Anthony Barr. All of them are closer to finished products and NFL ready.

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If the Falcons moved back up I would hope it was for Donald, Pryor, or even Lewan. I like Barr, but I think other players can be had at areas of need.

The Falcons already are stacked at OLB/DE with project players with potential.

Good post btw.

A move back to 13 would be a perfect spot to take one of these four guys with either safety being the "worst case" scenario.

I think the Barr hate has gone way too far and is being fueled by alterior motives. Barr and Bridgewater are the two guys that the "film watching" community seem to love but the big forum media types have pushed down the board. That doesnt make sense, IMO. Something is going on, whether its motivated by agents or teams looking to get these guys to drop.

I also think its worth noting that the teams that legitimately intend on spending an early Day 2 pick on a QB will likely be tempted to address the issue on Day 1 because of the 5th year option bonus they'd get by drafting their guy in the first.

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A move back to 13 would be a perfect spot to take one of these four guys with either safety being the "worst case" scenario.

I think the Barr hate has gone way too far and is being fueled by alterior motives. Barr and Bridgewater are the two guys that the "film watching" community seem to love but the big forum media types have pushed down the board. That doesnt make sense, IMO. Something is going on, whether its motivated by agents or teams looking to get these guys to drop.

I also think its worth noting that the teams that legitimately intend on spending an early Day 2 pick on a QB will likely be tempted to address the issue on Day 1 because of the 5th year option bonus they'd get by drafting their guy in the first.

Larry,

the reason that Barr is dropping is precisely because of film. the reason the messageboard does not like Barr is because they see on youtube that he has no passrushing moves and he mostly either runs around blocks or delay blitzes to get to the QB. Its precisely 180 degrees opposite of what you are saying.

The talking idiots (Kiper/McShay) dropped Barr because they finally decided to watch tape of him - 3 months after they were touting him.

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I will say this. I'm not ruling out a trade back into the 1st but I don't think it will be for Barr.

who would it be for? please don't say a friggin' safety? while we need one, it is sooooo much less important than passrusher or offensive tackle. Outside of Clowney, Mack, Robinson, Matthews or Lewan, I really don't see much else I want in the first round. I certainly don't want the Falcons first pick(even in a tradedown) to be Clinton-Dix or Pryor.

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who would it be for? please don't say a friggin' safety? while we need one, it is sooooo much less important than passrusher or offensive tackle. Outside of Clowney, Mack, Robinson, Matthews or Lewan, I really don't see much else I want in the first round. I certainly don't want the Falcons first pick(even in a tradedown) to be Clinton-Dix or Pryor.

Depends on the conditions of the trade. IMO, FS is the most underrated position in all of sports, not just football. But, I admit to being a bit bias...

#jakescott

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Depends on the conditions of the trade. IMO, FS is the most underrated position in all of sports, not just football. But, I admit to being a bit bias...

#jakescott

yeah, no thanks. Just say NO to tradedown and taking a safety. I am not even willing to risk losing the #3 offensive tackle(Lewan) in this draft by trading down.

FALCONS 1ST ROUND DRAFT BOARD:

  1. Jadeveon Clowney
  2. Khalil Mack
  3. Greg Robinson
  4. Jake Matthews
  5. Taylor Lewan

There is about 99% chance the Falcons can get one of those 5 players at #6 overall (as it is highly probable that Sammy Watkins goes in top 5 and likely even one of the QBs). I am not willing to risk trading down more than two spots unless two players are left on that list - presumably Matthews/Lewan. If they were both available at #6, I would be willing to trade-down to #8, as I would be guaranteed to still get one of them. Maybe Minnesota @ #8, would be willing to give the Falcons a 3rd round pick to jump ahead of Tampa for a QB @ #6. That is about the only trade I would do in the 1st round and that scenario. If there were more players from above list available at #6, then I might be willing to drop another 1-2 spots - but I would want to be assured of one of those 5 players.

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who would it be for? please don't say a friggin' safety? while we need one, it is sooooo much less important than passrusher or offensive tackle. Outside of Clowney, Mack, Robinson, Matthews or Lewan, I really don't see much else I want in the first round. I certainly don't want the Falcons first pick(even in a tradedown) to be Clinton-Dix or Pryor.

Well it doesn't have to be as high as #13...could be Dee Ford...could be Verrett if somebody is making a conversion.

I'm not saying the odds are high but I could see it happen because we don't need all 10 picks

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Well it doesn't have to be as high as #13...could be Dee Ford...could be Verrett if somebody is making a conversion.

I'm not saying the odds are high but I could see it happen because we don't need all 10 picks

he was advocating trading down - you are advocating trading up. I don't like either because we need OT/Passrush in first two rounds - as long as we are trading back into the first round for a passrusher - after selecting an OT - I could get on board for that.

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One other thing about the mindset and outlook of the Falcons.

Mike Smith is entering his 7th year as HC. He's also admitted to getting away from some core philosophies of his, particularly as it related to how last season transpired. And while honest self-examination is always a very welcome and necessary trait to see in any professional but specifically for the HC of the football team you love, 2014 is a critical season for Smith IMO. He's got to do very well IMO to keep his job. I think Dimitroff wants Smith to succeed. But I also think he realizes that for all of the success the Falcons have had, if the Falcons fail to make hay in the playoffs, that would represent 1 playoff win in seven seasons with Smith at the helm. And IMO, if that occurs, I do believe we'll have a new HC this time next year even if Dimitroff has to fire him somewhat begrudgingly knowing that while he has a great working relationship with Smith, ultimately results matter. And 7 seasons would be enough time to see that the results were not good enough. So 2014 is a HUGE year for this combination because it could be the last. And I think Dimitroff doesn't want this to be the last year but know that from an accountability standpoint, if the result aren't there, bigger changes will need to be made.

The idea of simply drafting Barr @ #6 defeats the real motivation behind making the trade in the first place which as I had previously stated is to add two Top 10 talents to the 2014 Falcons at significant areas of short & long term need. Keeping the 2015 1st rounder does nothing to help the 2014 Falcons. And the tone of some of the statements coming from Smith/Dimitroff is one of frustration and even anger when they discuss where the team has gone astray. So I could see an all-in type of mentality taking hold here that becomes the primary driver behind such a mold move.

Barr has become a polarizing prospect. Kiper & McShay have soured on Barr...McShay moreso though by a wide margin. However, other draft analysts in some cases like Barr as much as Mack. So if you agree with McShay, you'll hate the move no matter what.

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who would it be for? please don't say a friggin' safety? while we need one, it is sooooo much less important than passrusher or offensive tackle. Outside of Clowney, Mack, Robinson, Matthews or Lewan, I really don't see much else I want in the first round. I certainly don't want the Falcons first pick(even in a tradedown) to be Clinton-Dix or Pryor.

Plus I don't believe RT is more important than FS.

I've been saying for a few months now that the Falcons may think the same.

That being said I dont want a trade back

Edited by ATLFalcons11
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he was advocating trading down - you are advocating trading up. I don't like either because we need OT/Passrush in first two rounds - as long as we are trading back into the first round for a passrusher - after selecting an OT - I could get on board for that.

No his trade for Barr was a trade up. That's why you personally was upset because "the juice is not worth the squeeze"

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I think with no clear #1 QB, and the Texans looking totally flummoxed on what to do with their pick, you can throw the draft pick value chart in the trash. Clowney is as close as consensus #1 pick as you can get, and everyone is 50/50 on him.

The value starts going up later in the draft when QB needy teams start sweating that the guy they want is coming off the board. I don't think it's going to be as expensive to move up as everyone thinks, and I also think that our #6 pick is worth a lot more if Watkins and a QB is gone when it's our turn.

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One other thing about the mindset and outlook of the Falcons.

Mike Smith is entering his 7th year as HC. He's also admitted to getting away from some core philosophies of his, particularly as it related to how last season transpired. And while honest self-examination is always a very welcome and necessary trait to see in any professional but specifically for the HC of the football team you love, 2014 is a critical season for Smith IMO. He's got to do very well IMO to keep his job. I think Dimitroff wants Smith to succeed. But I also think he realizes that for all of the success the Falcons have had, if the Falcons fail to make hay in the playoffs, that would represent 1 playoff win in seven seasons with Smith at the helm. And IMO, if that occurs, I do believe we'll have a new HC this time next year even if Dimitroff has to fire him somewhat begrudgingly knowing that while he has a great working relationship with Smith, ultimately results matter. And 7 seasons would be enough time to see that the results were not good enough. So 2014 is a HUGE year for this combination because it could be the last. And I think Dimitroff doesn't want this to be the last year but know that from an accountability standpoint, if the result aren't there, bigger changes will need to be made.

The idea of simply drafting Barr @ #6 defeats the real motivation behind making the trade in the first place which as I had previously stated is to add two Top 10 talents to the 2014 Falcons at significant areas of short & long term need. Keeping the 2015 1st rounder does nothing to help the 2014 Falcons. And the tone of some of the statements coming from Smith/Dimitroff is one of frustration and even anger when they discuss where the team has gone astray. So I could see an all-in type of mentality taking hold here that becomes the primary driver behind such a mold move.

Barr has become a polarizing prospect. Kiper & McShay have soured on Barr...McShay moreso though by a wide margin. However, other draft analysts in some cases like Barr as much as Mack. So if you agree with McShay, you'll hate the move no matter what.

those that read statlines like Barr in top 15

those that watch film don't

I think its that simple.

Barr is a late 1st round pick based on film. To take him earlier is gambling on his upside on what you think he MIGHT become. Based on what he is right now today - he's not a top 15 pick.

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I think with no clear #1 QB, and the Texans looking totally flummoxed on what to do with their pick, you can throw the draft pick value chart in the trash. Clowney is as close as consensus #1 pick as you can get, and everyone is 50/50 on him.

The value starts going up later in the draft when QB needy teams start sweating that the guy they want is coming off the board. I don't think it's going to be as expensive to move up as everyone thinks, and I also think that our #6 pick is worth a lot more if Watkins and a QB is gone when it's our turn.

personally, I just don't want to trade back unless I have a reasonable expectation of who I might be getting. There is a real dropoff - IMHO - after the first 8 picks. There are some guys I like (Aaron Donald/Eric Ebron) but they don't really represent what this team needs out of our 1st round player - given the players/positions we need most - we need one of the highly rated passrushers(Clowney/Mack) or highly rated offensive tackles(Robinson/Matthews/Lewan). Anything other than one of those five - and I'm not going to be very happy camper on May 8th.

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