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Who Dimitroff Will Target Based On Dimitroff's History


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I think your analysis and theory are spot on. I agree that Jake Matthews and Khalil Mack seem to be the most "Dimitroff-like" players. So, giving your post grade an "A".

However, this is discussion thread so might as well play devil's advocate to promote discussion. Clearly Dimitroff - for the first time in his career - is making moves as if his job depended on immediate success - clearly it does. You could tell from offseason pressers from Smitty and Dimitroff that they are feeling the heat from Arthur Blank. Blank has put a large portion of his billionaire fortune into this new stadium - he cannot afford to have an inferior product on the field.

Dimitroff also brought in two other former GMs - one that was his boss in New England - Arthur Blank is probably droppin' another $1.5mm on salaries for Pioli/DeVaney. These are moves made by Dimitroff to get a 2nd and 3rd look on this roster and moves to be made in free agency/draft.

So, my theory back to you is this - Dimitroff is in a very pressure-packed position and he has two former GMs advising him - his moves are going to look different - clearly the whole offseason has looked different and Pioli/Devaney are part of the reason.

So, going by past drafts, it won't necessarily tell the story here.

I agree and I don't. I don't think his moves will look different. The reason we brought in guys like PS, TJ and JA was due to MS and MN finally getting guys for their scheme. Those are Nolan guys.

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Let me preface this by saying that I do not care about college football, I do not do mock drafts, I don't follow the off-season draft process, and I don't pretend to be a "scout" for college players. Here's what I do know: What this team needs and how Dimitroff thinks, and by that I mean what he looks for in players at particular positions, rounds, etc.

Dimitroff is not a BPA guy, he's not a strictly needs based guy. Dimitroff is a system specific, BPA at a position of need guy. What do we need more than anything right now? Pass rush and an OT. After that you have positions like FS and TE, but we're not going to be after that at the top of the first round. So here's where we are. I can determine that those are the two positions we're targeting, it's fairly obvious. Now, from here, we now look at the "system specific" side of things. That's not necessarily about what Koetter or Nolan runs schematically, but personality fits as well.

Dimitroff likes senior year, leader types(team captains) that boast a good work ethic, polished technique, good college production. Think of Matt Ryan, Sean Weatherspoon, and Julio Jones. Outside of Julio coming out as a junior, they all match that profile. Now, out of the top 10 players at the positions of need, who fits that mold the most?

  • Clowney is not a senior, is not a leader, has questionable work ethic, whose production dipped heavily as a his last year. I would be shocked if Dimitroff went after Clowney in this draft.
  • Khalil Mack is a "Dimitroff/Falcons" type player if there ever was one. He's coming out after a very productive senior season, is a team captain, has excellent work ethic, is very polished, and on top of that, he fits what both Nolan and Smith look for in defensive players(high motor, intelligent, etc.). Out of ALL players that have come out since 2008, he fits this team as well as anyone.
  • Tayor Lewnan is a senior, a team captain, and obviously was productive his senior year. Where things go off though is his legal issues and personal foul problems, but he's close enough that I think Dimitroff would take him as a back-up option.
  • Greg Robinson is a decent fit, but he's a very raw prospect that is coming out as a junior. Again, that's not what Dimitroff ideally looks for.
  • Jake Matthews is also another "Dimitroff player." He's a senior, very productive, a known leader, is very polished, has an excellent work ethic, and to top it off, has an NFL pedigree to go to his name.

Hardly an extensive break-down of these guys, but I'm not here for that. I think based off just a little research on these guys, it's easy to see who fits the Dimitroff mold better than others. Based on what I know about how Dimitroff thinks, I think it's safe to say that Mack and Matthews are the prospects we are targetting this year, with Mack getting a slight edge over Matthews. That's my take on our 1st round pick, and I'm not really interested in who is "supposed" to be the better prospect, who will be available, or anything else like that. Based on what I know of the top prospects at positions of need, those two will be who Dimitroff puts at the top of his board.

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Idk why you skipped over the obvious pick in Barr.

Fits the Falcons' biggest need

Highly athletic

Coachable

Team Captain

Senior

Big Conference/Bowl Experience

Special teams experience

Father & Uncle played in the league

It almost mirrors Trufant's profile. Jake Matthews is the only other prospect that approaches Dimitroff's typical draft profile. This is not yo day a player HAS TO have all these things yo be a Falcon, but these are all items he looks for and Barr & Matthews are heads & shoulders above the others in this respect.

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I agree. There has clearly already been a massive Pioli stamp on the FA process, and I would think each draft pick will be pretty much a group-selection with everybody including Nolan and Smith providing input, rather than TD throwing out his personal choice and that decision just being rubber-stamped.

I think Pioli just helps advise TD among many other things. Would we have brought in TJ and JA without Pioli? Maybe not, because with him here he was able to tell us how hard they worked, leadership, locker room presence, etc..

The guys are actually Nolan type guys and I think we are finally replacing BVG guys. I think MS is a lot of the reason we are just now switching to these type of players.

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I think your analysis and theory are spot on. I agree that Jake Matthews and Khalil Mack seem to be the most "Dimitroff-like" players. So, giving your post grade an "A".

However, this is discussion thread so might as well play devil's advocate to promote discussion. Clearly Dimitroff - for the first time in his career - is making moves as if his job depended on immediate success - clearly it does. You could tell from offseason pressers from Smitty and Dimitroff that they are feeling the heat from Arthur Blank. Blank has put a large portion of his billionaire fortune into this new stadium - he cannot afford to have an inferior product on the field.

Dimitroff also brought in two other former GMs - one that was his boss in New England - Arthur Blank is probably droppin' another $1.5mm on salaries for Pioli/DeVaney. These are moves made by Dimitroff to get a 2nd and 3rd look on this roster and moves to be made in free agency/draft.

So, my theory back to you is this - Dimitroff is in a very pressure-packed position and he has two former GMs advising him - his moves are going to look different - clearly the whole offseason has looked different and Pioli/Devaney are part of the reason.

So, going by past drafts, it won't necessarily tell the story here.

Crazy how 2 former GM's have to be hired to help the current GM. Clearly this upcoming season is stacked against TD. His safest pick is to get the top olineman in the draft. Any other position can be addressed in the later rounds... Oline is top priority

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Clowney because he's the wrecking ball on the edge this team needs.

This team does not need to watch Brees drop back 45 times with no pass rush.

This team needs someone bigger and faster than Cam to neutralize his running ability.

A wide long armed RT can be had later in the draft to throw in the competition with Johnson, Holmes and Carimi.

A safety can be found in the mid rounds to pair with a FA from the current crop or cuts after the draft.

WHY not reverse that

Get an OT first and then get a DE in the 2nd to compete with

Osi, Bierman, Mass, Goodman, Maponga, Matthews

This team does not need to see Ryan lying on his back 9 times a game either

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Mack doesn't fit the profile. Dimitroff has never selected a small school kid that high.

you can always look at hints of past drafts but consider this:

  • Dimitroff/Smith are basically acknowledging that they have "lost their way".
  • Dimitroff/Smith have basically admitted that they had a team that was not tough
  • Dimitroff/Smith have basically admitted that they had a team that was not strong
  • Dimitroff/Smith have basically admitted that they had a team that could not win the line of scrimmage.

As my pastor has always said:

"If you keep doing what you have always done, you will keep getting what you've always got". ;)

This year's draft is going to be somewhat different than past drafts. believe it.

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Here's my thought...

TD and Smith have always taken the conservative approach. Aside from Julio, they draft the safe guy most of the time. Even Julio was a safe bet coming out.

By approaching the draft with the safe approach, they've ended up with a team that isn't tough or aggressive. How many times was our line pussed around? How many times did we easy off the pedal and coast to a close victory?

This year, I hope you'll see a more tough, aggressive team. But with that, the toughness and aggressiveness needs to start at the FO.

I think you'll see a whole new approach this year.

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Idk why you skipped over the obvious pick in Barr.

Fits the Falcons' biggest need

Highly athletic

Coachable

Team Captain

Senior

Big Conference/Bowl Experience

Special teams experience

Father & Uncle played in the league

It almost mirrors Trufant's profile. Jake Matthews is the only other prospect that approaches Dimitroff's typical draft profile. This is not yo day a player HAS TO have all these things yo be a Falcon, but these are all items he looks for and Barr & Matthews are heads & shoulders above the others in this respect.

I haven't read as much on Barr, and most of what I've seen has him placed as a guy that would be picked mid-1st round anyways. Outside of being a "raw" prospect, he fits the "TD" mold perfectly.

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Agree and love your post. That said, any who've read "The War Room." Will know this term : urgent athlete. It's a TD term for that rare blend of size, strength and athleticism. The guy like Julio that moves fluidly and athletically. Guess who the urgent athlete is in this draft?

I would put the top 3 elite prospects in that category.

Clowney

Mack

Robinson

Clowney moreso than the others

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