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The Trade-Up That Would Not Hurt.....three Targets


g-dawg
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I believe most everyone would agree that the three players that would be at the top of Falcons draftboard are as follows:

  1. Jadeveon Clowney, DE-S. Carolina
  2. Khalil Mack, OLB-Buffalo
  3. Greg Robinson, OT-Auburn

I know some will argue about Robinson/Matthews but deep down, everyone knows that Robinson is the better prospect.

Moving up to #1 or #2 - well there is "compensation pain" to get to those spots. However, if we have three targets, we really don't have to go all the way to #1.

I think the target should be Jacksonville's spot at #3. How does that workout on the trade chart? thought you would never ask:

Jacksonville's #1-003 (2,200pts)

Atlanta's #1-006 (1,600pts)

so we are roughly 600pts shy. I think we could get there with the following:

either:

#2-037 (530pts) - that would get the job done (not preferred)

OR

#3-068 (250pts), 2nd rounder in 2015 (say #2-048 = 420pts x 66% = 277pts) - this is the option that I would stick to.

now, i realize if its Greg Robinson that over 50% of you will say "just sit at #6 and take Matthews or Lewan - fine.

Giving up a 3rd and a future 2nd though - that is not a stiff price to pay to get a legitimate "difference-maker" either in pass rush or left tackle.

If I was Dimitroff, this would be my strategy. We could still knock out the "1-2" strategy of OT/Passrusher or Passrusher/OT....still would have two 4th rounders and an early 5th to go hunting for FS/ILB/RB.

Look at Jacksonville. They are a team that needs players......lots of 'em. Sure they would love to have a passrusher like Khalil Mack - but their #1 need is QB. Also, Jags coaches coached Dee Ford, who LIT UP the Senior Bowl, so you would figure they might have their collective eyes on him with their 2nd round pick. I believe I've heard that the Jags like Jake Matthews as well. I think this trade would be a winner for both the Falcons and the Jags - plus we have the "Dave Caldwell/Thomas Dimitroff" connection as well.

This strategy would leave most people happy, I think - also would not wreck the 2015 draft.

khalil-mack-mid.jpg

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btw, I discount future picks by 33% (not 50% like some do). Also, I assumed the pick would be the middle of the round - I think this is fair because Falcons were 4-12 last year and the over/under on Falcons victories in regular season right now is "9".

I am shorting the Jags by about 70pts = mid 4th round pick - but I think this year's trades will favor the buyers instead of the seller's - maybe we have to kick in a 6th rounder to get the deal done - but I believe our 3rd this year and 2015 2nd rounder would probably get the deal done.

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We could more than likly go for the fourth pick and still get either Mack or Robinson. That should only cost use either this years third or next years second.

something just tells me that Cleveland will not want to trade. I think they sit tight at #4 and either take Sammy Watkins or a QB.

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I think this would be a great trade but I just don't see a scenario were they would bite. If Bortles goes first then o think they go for clowney . If clowney goes first it would be hard for me to believe that they let Cleveland and Oakland have their pick at the top quarterbacks.

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I think we need to see how the picks fall and not trade up for anybody. We have the 6th pick. 3 teams in front of us need a QB. If history has told us anything about the draft, none of the mock pundits know which team is going to do what. Why trade picks to take a guy those other teams might not take anyway?

Seriously. Plan A should not be to trade up. Plan A should be to not reach on anybody. Plan B should be trading up if it's not falling the way we want it to and there will be a big dropoff at a position of need if we don't trade up.

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LOL, no it would not. Dimitroff sucks in the 3rd round anyway (Akeem Dent, Mike Johnson, Chevis Jackson, Chris Owens anyone?)

That's horrible reasoning. Just because he hasn't hit on someone great yet doesn't mean it won't happen, especially now that we have like 4 GM's. Dent is a decent player for a late 3'rd rounder too, Mike... who knows.

That being said i wouldn't mind this strategy if it netted us Mack or Clowney. We need to keep this years 2'nd and next year's 1'st, those are my only stipulations when trading up this year. I wouldn't mind the second option at all if it was the difference between getting Mack or not.

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Just to further prove my point. I looked at WalterFootball's 2013 mock. They had Geno Smith going 6th overall. He went in the 2nd. Every year they show the top available prospects as they are rated by a "respected" mock analyst, and the draft NEVER falls anywhere close to it.

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btw, I discount future picks by 33% (not 50% like some do). Also, I assumed the pick would be the middle of the round - I think this is fair because Falcons were 4-12 last year and the over/under on Falcons victories in regular season right now is "9".

I am shorting the Jags by about 70pts = mid 4th round pick - but I think this year's trades will favor the buyers instead of the seller's - maybe we have to kick in a 6th rounder to get the deal done - but I believe our 3rd this year and 2015 2nd rounder would probably get the deal done.

a little curious as to how you think we can short the jags 70 points in this scenario but consider the trade I had in my 3 round mock as showing bias?
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TD will have other voices in the draft room with him, just look at free agency those guys all are here because of input from Pioli, and Nolan/Cox influence so I believe we won't have a typical 3rd round gaff this time.

Edited by roman42
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Never. We will just keep hoping someone on the team breaks out. Next year it will be Stansley.

Definitely seems to be the TATF way. Always expecting one of our own to bust out but always end up disappointed only to repeat the process the next year. I'm guilty of it for sure.

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