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A Texans Trade Scenario That Actually Makes Sense


B3TD
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With the talk that the Texans are saying they're open to moving out of the #1 pick, what kind of trade even makes sense?

One idea is that they trade back later in the first if they're sold on one of the QBs other than Bortles or Manziel. However, I have a hard time believing they're going to find a partner who's willing to give up the amount of picks it would take to move up that far to the #1 pick.

But to get one of the top 2 QBs (if that's their plan), they need to stay high in the draft to ensure they get him/them. Problem is that plan could backfire just from a small move to the #5 pick. The QBs may be gone there... And of course if the Jags and Browns want those QBs, then they will not be trade partners, nor does St. Louis make any sense.

We've been mentioned as a possible trade partner, but again, there's little guarantee their guys last to that pick. There's just probably not a good trade partner for the QBs they may want.

So where does that leave them?

My idea is that if they don't find a trade partner, then they take Clowney, but TD makes a deal in principle that should their QB is there at 6, then they can swap then.

I'm still scared of what the minimum would be to make that trade, but it would be significantly cheaper for 2 reasons. First, the Texans would not be dealing from a position of strength, being unable to make the trade they want; But also because the pick is no longer an unknown. By waiting, they're essentially getting what they want without the normal risk of trading down to the unknown.

This could be the backup plan for not only the Texans, but also the Falcons should our top 4 be gone and the QBs are sitting there... You could also apply this idea to a deal with other teams ahead of us, but it makes even more sense in Texans situation.

Edited by B3TD
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What? So the swap Clowney for Their QB of choice at 6th without us giving up any other picks? And they would agree to this over just picking their guy at 1 why?

Should rename the title. Jk makes no sense.

I did not say that they wouldn't receive compensation. I said it would be much cheaper for several reasons.

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Why wouldn't the Texans just go ahead and take the QB? Rookie pay scale, we are talking about a few 100K difference here....this Clowney stuff is getting a little ridiculous.

I understand the OPs theory. However, it means the Texans have to be comfortable getting stuck with Clowney - all for trying to pickup an extra 2nd round pick.

If Texans wanted Bortles, they would just take him and not risk it.

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Why wouldn't the Texans just go ahead and take the QB? Rookie pay scale, we are talking about a few 100K difference here....this Clowney stuff is getting a little ridiculous.

Certainly possible Clowney is jsut a smoke screen to them taking a QB.

But it's also very likely that they don't want to just pass on the best defensive prospect in a long time without some sort of compensation. So if they can't get value for him, they will just take him and take their QB in the second.

However, this is an idea for them to get value for Clowney while still getting their QB, a backup plan in addition to the backup plan of taking a QB in the second if all else fails.

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I understand the OPs theory. However, it means the Texans have to be comfortable getting stuck with Clowney - all for trying to pickup an extra 2nd round pick.

If Texans wanted Bortles, they would just take him and not risk it.

I agree, they might find that it's not worth getting cute and take their QB. It's probably more of a possibility than most people think.

But I don't see them being terribly scared of a gamble that still nets them Clowney at worst, assuming of course they're okay settling for a guy they can pick up at the top of the second.

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Good theory bro, but too convoluted to become reality IMHO ..........

Stranger things have happened. Look at the Manning/Rivers deal.

Not saying it's likely, but if the Texans are set on either getting value for Clowney or taking him, it's not that farfetched. It might not even have to happen until we're sitting at 6 with 2 QBs sitting there, and start taking and making phone calls.

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I understand the OPs theory. However, it means the Texans have to be comfortable getting stuck with Clowney - all for trying to pickup an extra 2nd round pick.

If Texans wanted Bortles, they would just take him and not risk it.

I just think this extra time between the draft has allowed everyone to concoct ways of screwing the Texans...or Rams...or *team of choice here*. If Dimitroff wants him, he's going to give up the picks...he's proved that and the Texans are only going to move down if it benefits them greatly.

Everyone wants Clowney but no one wants to pay the price.

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Stranger things have happened. Look at the Manning/Rivers deal.

Not saying it's likely, but if the Texans are set on either getting value for Clowney or taking him, it's not that farfetched. It might not even have to happen until we're sitting at 6 with 2 QBs sitting there, and start taking and making phone calls.

Well, nothing is ever outside the realm of possibility ....especially when TD is involved .....unsure.png
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he's proved that and the Texans are only going to move down if it benefits them greatly.

Everyone wants Clowney but no one wants to pay the price.

This satisfies both those conditions. The Texans walk away with their QB without being total chumps having to give up all the value of being in a position to draft Clowney. They get their QB and added compensation for a guy they would draft first.

Again, why they don't want to draft that QB first is that it's completely negates all the value of the true superstar prospect. Hence why they are probably also considering taking Clowney, because they simply cannot pass him up without compensation, even if they prefer the top QBs.

Like you said, if no one wants to pay their price, then they may have to find other ways to maximize the Clowney's value.

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With the talk that the Texans are saying they're open to moving out of the #1 pick, what kind of trade even makes sense?

One idea is that they trade back later in the first if they're sold on one of the QBs other than Bortles or Manziel. However, I have a hard time believing they're going to find a partner who's willing to give up the amount of picks it would take to move up that far to the #1 pick.

But to get one of the top 2 QBs (if that's their plan), they need to stay high in the draft to ensure they get him/them. Problem is that plan could backfire just from a small move to the #5 pick. The QBs may be gone there... And of course if the Jags and Browns want those QBs, then they will not be trade partners, nor does St. Louis make any sense.

We've been mentioned as a possible trade partner, but again, there's little guarantee their guys last to that pick. There's just probably not a good trade partner for the QBs they may want.

So where does that leave them?

My idea is that if they don't find a trade partner, then they take Clowney, but TD makes a deal in principle that should their QB is there at 6, then they can swap then.

I'm still scared of what the minimum would be to make that trade, but it would be significantly cheaper for 2 reasons. First, the Texans would not be dealing from a position of strength, being unable to make the trade they want; But also because the pick is no longer an unknown. By waiting, they're essentially getting what they want without the normal risk of trading down to the unknown.

This could be the backup plan for not only the Texans, but also the Falcons should our top 4 be gone and the QBs are sitting there... You could also apply this idea to a deal with other teams ahead of us, but it makes even more sense in Texans situation.

I understand the OPs theory. However, it means the Texans have to be comfortable getting stuck with Clowney - all for trying to pickup an extra 2nd round pick.

If Texans wanted Bortles, they would just take him and not risk it.

I just think this extra time between the draft has allowed everyone to concoct ways of screwing the Texans...or Rams...or *team of choice here*. If Dimitroff wants him, he's going to give up the picks...he's proved that and the Texans are only going to move down if it benefits them greatly.

Everyone wants Clowney but no one wants to pay the price.

Oh this certainly can happen, as the OP suggested. I am more than sure that teams will be calling the Texans, asking if they are interested in trading Clowney, and TD will be one of them.

A big part of the draft, is the bluffing. No one believes anyone, and they shouldn't. There are plenty of teams who are absolutely convinced that the Texans are not drafting a QB. Or Clowney.

Then it happens.

And teams wanting whoever the Texans draft, are forced to deal with Houston.

Oh yeah. I can surely see this happening.

Edited by egoprime II
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Well, it looks like I'm not the only one who doesn't think this is farfetched:

Gil Brandt@Gil_Brandt

.@PittCritic Good chance #Texans move down. Trade similar to Giants-Chargers trade, preaarnged to take Clowney for some other team.

I'm not sure why this is hard for people to wrap their heads around. The Texans know that Clowney is hands-down the best prospect in the draft, so unless they're completely desperate for a QB there, then they have several options to either get value for Clowney, or simply take him. They don't seem to want to have to settle for drafting out of desperation and getting poor value in strong draft, when their spot clearly holds much greater value than that.

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What actually makes sense is the Texans grabbing Clowney, the using their #33 and next years 2nd as part of a package to move back up for a QB.

Win win.

I agree it makes way more sense than a tradedown (aside from one like this where the unknown is removed).

If the Browns have the same guy in mind that they do, their guy might not be there at 2.01.

Obviously everything depends on who they like and don't though of course. Draft day can't get here soon enough.

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I don't think this changes the value Houston expects to get back for Clowney, because I think Houston would fully be prepared to hold on to him if they didn't receive the value they wanted in a trade. For ATL to get Clowney it's still going to cost all of this years draft or this years 2nd, possibly 3rd, and next years 1st.

Because of Wilson and Kapernick, some teams think they don't need to take a QB in the 1st.

What I'm hoping is the Texans, Jags and Browns realize SF had Smith and SEA had just signed Flynn to 'start' when they drafted those dudes.

There's a huge advantage for teams taking a player, particularly a QB, with a first round pick over a second round pick. Late first round picks will still be on a very team friendly contract but will be locked in for five years due to team options. Players taken in the second round and beyond will basically be on three year deals. At least when it comes to starting QBs.

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I don't think this changes the value Houston expects to get back for Clowney, because I think Houston would fully be prepared to hold on to him if they didn't receive the value they wanted in a trade. For ATL to get Clowney it's still going to cost all of this years draft or this years 2nd, possibly 3rd, and next years 1st.

There's a huge advantage for teams taking a player, particularly a QB, with a first round pick over a second round pick. Late first round picks will still be on a very team friendly contract but will be locked in for five years due to team options. Players taken in the second round and beyond will basically be on three year deals. At least when it comes to starting QBs.

Clowney is rare and may turn out to be a HOFer, but GMs have to remind themselves, you're never just one player away. We need our 2nd, but I wouldn't mind using it to trade a little higher back into the first for a pass rusher since we're most likely taking a T with our 1st.

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Yep. Teams don't get "cute" like this. If the Texans want a top QB they will draft a top QB. Likewise if someone like Lewan is our guy at 6 we are not going to get "cute" and trade down. We will take him at our spot. You don't trade down with 1 guy (or even 2 guys) in mind. If someone else grabs them before you after you trade down you are double screwed. Teams don't take that kind of risk.

Good point. We move back a few spots and someone moves up a few spots ahead of us and takes our guy. I could however see us moving up to 2 or 3 if TD & Co. decide one OT is significantly superior. I don't see enough of a difference, I'd sit @6 and be grateful one bad season got me a Top 10 stud, Top 5 if a QB is taken ahead of us.

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Why wouldn't the Texans just go ahead and take the QB? Rookie pay scale, we are talking about a few 100K difference here....this Clowney stuff is getting a little ridiculous.

Yeah.....the Texans are going to select Johnny Manziel with the first pick when all is said and done. I know people seem to think that is a long shot but it is going to happen.

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One problem - I think the Texans actually want Clowney. They can pick him AND get a starting QB in the 2nd round. With Clowney on one side and Watts on the other, it could get ugly for opposing QBs.

As for their QB need, yes, Bill O'Brien was Brady's QB coach, but Brady was the #199 pick. Mettenberger, Carr, Murray, etc. will still be available in the second round (and later).

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