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"buyers Market" For Trade-Up (If Falcons Were So Inclined)


g-dawg
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Personally, the more I think about this draft - the more I like the scenarios. The best time to do a trade is when you don't feel pressured to do so. In 2011, Thomas Dimitroff felt he had to get a more explosive element to the offense - so he went out and traded up 20 spots to grab Julio.

While Dimitroff still is under pressure, the Falcons have three pressing needs(OT/Passrusher/Free Safety) and there are 3 offensive linemen(Robinson/Matthews/Lewan) and 3 passrushers(Clowney/Mack/Barr) available.

Trade-Up Offensive Lineman: Greg Robinson

Stay Put Offensive Lineman: Jake Matthews

Trade Down 2-3 spot Offensive Lineman: Taylor Lewan

Trade-Up Passrusher: Clowney, Mack

Stay Put Passrusher: Mack

Trade Down Passrusher: Barr

there are lots of ways the Falcons could go. When you look at the trade-up scenario, I believe the team(s) ahead are more desperate to trade-down than the Atlanta Falcons are to trade-up. This puts Dimitroff/Falcons in a negotiating position of strength because of indifference to trading up.

Falcons/Dimitroff also have this reputation of being willing to make a move, orchestrate a trade....Dimitroff is also known by his peers as a straight-shooter.

The Houston Texans need to take a QB - it is their #1, #2 and #3 need. They are smart enough to recognize that none of the QBs are really worthy of the #1 overall pick. The Rams need OT/WR/FS and already own multiple picks. Rams/GM Les Snead will probably want more picks in 2015 when they might possibly be looking to replace Sam Bradford. Jags #1 need is QB as well as Cleveland.

The TOP 5 picks in this draft is loaded with more sellers than buyers. The Falcons #6 spot would likely still garner the Rams either Jake Matthews or Sammy Watkins. The #6 pick might garner the Houston Texans the 2nd QB to come off the board. These top 5 teams don't want to drop too far as they recognize the talent dropoff - this also puts Falcons in stronger position than somebody like a Detroit(#10) or another team down-the-draft. You still can get a top-tier talent at #6.

The best move MIGHT be to just stay at #6 like I know so many of you want to do. I am just beseeching you to "free your mind" to the possibility we might be able to move up for less than you think. I am fairly certain that the #2-037 pick is not for sale in any trade-up for Falcons.

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If I was Dimitroff, I would lay-in-wait. Falcons GM should not even initiate the trade-calls - let the Texans and the Rams come to him. Texans GM Rick Smith and Rams GM Les Snead know that "Trader Thomas" is not afraid to pull the trigga.

If Falcons don't trade-up, they are in position to take the best of Khalil Mack/Greg Robinson/Jake Matthews. If nobody calls Falcons, then fine - we take Jake Matthews and wait for 2nd round.

If one of these teams is desperate to move-out of their spot, then the terms have to favor the Falcons.

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You might be right gdawg in the that it could possibly take less to move up than normal. But if I was the Texans targeting a QB, I wouldnt feel very comfortable dropping behind 3 QB needy teams unless it was worth me doing so.

true......haven't figured that part out yet biggrin.png. It would be a gamble by Texans. Of Jaguars, Browns an Raiders - no way will all three take a QB in top 5 - it will likely be only one of them will - but it could be two. If the only QB the Texans love is Bortles, then they will have to take him at #1 and be done with it....

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we're in a prime position at 6 for one of those 5 teams they wouldn't drop back far and could still get their guy, but I'd rather give up something minor this year with our no.6 and something next year, we really can't afford to lose that 2nd rounder with this deep/ good a draft. We are in a good position to get 2-3 legit immediate impact guys in this draft, watch and see if we do trade up the first thing TD will say is it was important for us to keep our 2nd rounder this year.

Edited by roman42
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A few years ago teams were willing/trying to trade top picks because they didn't won't to take on the inflated rookie deals. With the new CBA/rookie pay scale that's just not the case any more. Teams like Houston and StL are sellers because they want more picks in this years deep draft, early round picks. Trading up to 4 could probably be done for this years third. Going up to three would likely cost this years 2nd or possibly a team willing to take next years 1st. Going up to 2 or 3 will be this years 2nd and either the majority of this years picks or next years first and filler. Of course all trades would include pick number 6 as well.

I think the reality is that trading up to a top three pick will cost this years second at a minimum.

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A few years ago teams were willing/trying to trade top picks because they didn't won't to take on the inflated rookie deals. With the new CBA/rookie pay scale that's just not the case any more. Teams like Houston and StL are sellers because they want more picks in this years deep draft, early round picks. Trading up to 4 could probably be done for this years third. Going up to three would likely cost this years 2nd or possibly a team willing to take next years 1st. Going up to 2 or 3 will be this years 2nd and either the majority of this years picks or next years first and filler. Of course all trades would include pick number 6 as well.

I think the reality is that trading up to a top three pick will cost this years second at a minimum.

good post - your and my opinion of the trade-up market is about the same. might cost slightly more than what you say - but not much more - maybe a 2015 later pick as well.

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Only way I consider a trade up is if it only costs us a 4th round pick or lower. I'd be ok with giving up multiple picks in the 5th-7th rounds, but nothing in rounds 2 or 3.

I may be bias, but I think it will cost is a 4th and swapping 1st, 2nd , and 3rd this year. And another pick next year, but really cheap overall to move to 2nd.

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Only way I consider a trade up is if it only costs us a 4th round pick or lower. I'd be ok with giving up multiple picks in the 5th-7th rounds, but nothing in rounds 2 or 3.

in other words, "I would not be OK with trade-up". The phone line would go dial-tone as soon as you got the first few words out of your mouth on what you would offer....

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You can't discount the QB needs of the other teams as well. There are legitimately 4 teams in the Top 5 with major holes at QB. That doesnt mean we're going to see 4 QBs taken, but it could lead to situations where those teams are willing to move around a bit while still trying to get their guy.

There's always a "panic domino afffect" once one goes, the others may follow suit, those not in the top 10 picking, may get antsy & look to move up for a QB...this will be interesting come Draft Day.
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There's no such thing as a buyer's market when it comes to trading up at the top end of the draft. Only desperate teams want to trade up, and the team with the high pick always has the leverage.

Your wrong about this, the market is based on need, and the Texans need to trade down more than we need to trade up.

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