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Thomas Dimitroff's 1St Round Draft Plan - With Multiple Contingencies


g-dawg
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Obviously the NFL draft is a living/breathing organism that can mutate several different ways. Since Falcons don't pick until #6, this thing can go a lot of different ways.

Here are the players that the Falcons would like to have in 1st round - a 1st round draft board, if you will:

Falcons 1st round Draft Board:

  1. Jadeveon Clowney, DE-S. Carolina (trade-up - 2nd round pick)
  2. Greg Robinson, OT-Auburn (slight trade-up)
  3. Khalil Mack, OLB-Buffalo (#6)
  4. Jake Matthews, OT-Texas A&M (#6)
  5. Taylor Lewan, OT-Michigan (trade down 2-3 spots - pick up 3rd rounder)
  6. Anthony Barr, OLB-UCLA (trade down 4-5 spots - pick up 2nd rounder)

To me, that is probably the draft board and the preferred scenarios as well. I feel as safe as one can feel(when Dimitroff is your hometown GM) that Falcons will take one of those 6 players.

If I had to guess today - 17 days prior to draft - what would happen, well its silly to guess at this point but will do so anyway.

1) Houston Texans

I still believe they want a QB but don't want to take one #1 overall. If they are going to draft a QB, they want to get him at a more valuable spot than #1 overall. Any team that wants to move up in the top 7 probably will be given an opportunity to make an offer. My guess would be that the Texans like Bortles but is willing to risk losing him by trading back. If Texans were willing to trade w/ Falcons, I think the deal that would be struck would probably be Falcons 2nd rounder this year and 2nd rounder next year - of course that is not trade-chart value but I don't think the Falcons are itching to make a deal here if the terms are not favorable. Other teams that might be willing to move to #1? None of the other QB teams (Jax, Clev, Oak, Minn) will be willing to move to #1. Other NFL teams covet Mack but no one is trading up for him. Greg Robinson is a stud but other NFL teams would probably be more willing to trade for the #3 OT at a lesser price. The only player worth trading up for is Clowney and the only teams that I believe would pull the trigger would be ATLANTA and TAMPA.

FINAL RESULT: draft Jadeveon Clowney, DE-S. Carolina

jadeveon-clowney.jpg

2) St. Louis Rams (f/ Washington)

The Rams are sitting in a nice spot here. I could see them being interested in Sammy Watkins, Greg Robinson and Khalil Mack. You also have two teams in Jacksonville and Cleveland who both might take a QB. While Cleveland acts like they are unconcerned and will just take a QB later - i don't believe it - they have their eye on somebody and want to stake their claim.

*******WE HAVE A TRADE********

Cleveland Browns trade #1-004(1,800pts) & #2-35(550pts) and 2015 2nd rounder

St. Louis Rams trade #1-002 (2,600pts)

2) Cleveland Browns (f/ St. Louis via Washington)

It was rumored 6 weeks ago that the Michael Lombardi regime (since sacked by Haslam) liked Johnny Football. My bet is they still do. Cleveland franchise is desperate for a difference maker in the pocket and some vanilla name like Bortles or Bridgewater or McCarron is just not going to do.

FINAL RESULT: trade-up and draft Johnny Manziel, QB-Texas A&M

22784170-2330.jpg

3) Jacksonville Jaguars

Cleveland probably could have saved their picks but there is very little pain since Browns have that second 1st round pick this year. The Jaguars and Gus Bradley come from the "defense, defense, defense" regime of Seattle (Bradley was former DC). Jags will be aggressive moving back into the first round later - but now, they get their difference-maker on defense.

FINAL RESULT: draft Khalil Mack, OLB-Buffalo

4) St. Louis Rams (f/ Clev)

ring....ring....ring....."Hey Les, this is your ol' friend TommyBoy biggrin.png We are interested in your pick but I need a cut-rate deal. Let's talk....

*******WE HAVE A TRADE*******

Falcons trade: #1-006(1,600pts), #3-068(250pts), #6-182(19pts) 2015 3rd rounder

St. Louis Rams trade: #1-004(1,800pts), #4-110(74pts)

Atlanta-Falcons.png

4) Atlanta Falcons (f/ St. Louis via Clev & Wash)

Dimitroff/Smith/Blank get the ONE PLAYER that epitomizes their whole theme of "dominating the Line of Scrimmage" in this offseason better than anyone else in this draft. The price to pay is totally tolerable and does not significantly impact this draft or next. The Rams upgrade a pick by 1.33 rounds and still accumulate an extra pick for next year.

FINAL RESULT: draft Greg Robinson, OT-Auburn

4d2070824243182a460f6a7067003f53.jpg

(note: obviously this may seem like an unlikely scenario because it requires two trades and St. Louis willing to risk losing a targeted player twice - but with multiple players at the need positions of OT and WR, I just see a team and a GM that will likely be very flexible on draft day.)

Falcons picks:

#1-004) Greg Robinson, OT-Auburn

#2-037)

#3-068) ****TRADED to Rams****

#4-103)

#4-110) ***f/ Rams***

#4-139)

#5-147)

#6-182) ****TRADED to Rams****

#7-220)

#7-253)

#7-255)

We go from 10 picks to 9 picks in this draft and we still have our 1st and 2nd round picks intact for next year - all while making a fair/realistic trade.

5) Oakland Raiders

Oakland showed the desire to trade-down last year and this roster is still in serious overhaul status so it would not surprise me if they do so again. This could be a spot where the Detroit Lions try to swing a trade-up to select Sammy Watkins.

*******WE HAVE A TRADE******

Detroit Lions trade: #1-010(1,300pts), #2-045(450pts)

Oakland Raiders trade: #1-005

5) Detroit Lions (via Oak)

The Detroit Lions are aggressive on draft day and channel their "inner-greatest-show-on-turf". This is all about taking advantage of being a dome team and dominating with speed and weapons.

FINAL RESULT: trade-up and draft Sammy Watkins, WR-Clemson

6) St. Louis Rams (via Atl)

Well the Rams have traded down twice already and have accumulated a 2014 2nd and 3rd rounder and a 2015 2nd and 3rd rounder - all in a deep draft while moving down 4 spots and giving up a 4th rounder. Many here probably think the Rams are disappointed that the Lions jumped the Rams and took Sammy Watkins. I am sure they might be disappointed but I believe their #1 need was offensive tackle and Rams were willing to trade down because they knew they could get Matthews or Lewan if Sammy Watkins was gone. I know PG says that offensive tackle is not a need but I disagree. Jake Long is injury-prone, Roger Saffold was brought back to play guard and Barksdale should be a back-up. I know the other thing thrown out is Jeff Fisher does not take offensive linemen in 1st round. I bet you that Fisher would love to draft Bruce Matthews' son as he is a good prospect and he probably knew him when he was a kid - plug-n-play.

FINAL RESULT: trade down and draft Jake Matthews, OT-Texas A&M

7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lovie looks to re-create the double-platinum-threat that the Bears had this year under Trestman (Brandon Marshall/Alshon Jeffery) for Josh McKown.

FINAL RESULT: draft Mike Evans, WR-Texas A&M

8) Minnesota Vikings

Matt Cassel is your starter and Christian Ponder is your back-up. We have seen this movie before - its called the Titanic.

FINAL RESULT: draft Blake Bortles, QB-Central Florida

9) Buffalo Bills

The Bills have a talented front 7 on defense but need to get more protection and more weapons for EJ Manuel. The top wideouts are off the board but a stud tight-end is available and it is the Bills #1 need

FINAL RESULT: draft Eric Ebron, TE-N. Carolina

10) Oakland Raiders (via Det.)

You know what's coming, right? What is the #1 need of the Oakland Raiders? Right......

FINAL RESULT: trade-down & draft Derek Carr, QB-Fresno State

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Possible, but I don't see it happening. Apparently the Rams top targets are Mack and Watkins and the furthest they can go with reasonable expectations that at least one will be there is #4. I also would be far from shocked that if the Lions trade up, be it for Clowney or Watkins, it will be with the Jags.

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Dawg do you think the Jags are after Manziel hence why you have the Browns moving up???

Don't see it myself.

I'm with you though Robinson Clowney or Mack they are the big 3 in this draft if we could walk away with 1 I'd be pretty happy with that.

All of the Browns' moves this offseason have been geared to get Manziel and let him thrive in the right system. They'll look like complete jackasses if they don't come away with him so why risk it, especially when you have the ammo to make sure it happens?

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Dawg do you think the Jags are after Manziel hence why you have the Browns moving up???

Don't see it myself.

I'm with you though Robinson Clowney or Mack they are the big 3 in this draft if we could walk away with 1 I'd be pretty happy with that.

I can definitely see the Jags wanting Manziel. They are desperation for the attention he would bring. Other teams might not want a Tebow-type circus, but they desperately need to inject excitement and interest. Could easily be worth the risk he busts.

Vick did still help Blank tickets afterall, and Manziel could do the same.

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this deal is relatively painless. sure, there is a chance we could sit at #6 and luck into Greg Robinson - but its improbable. Everybody keeps saying "you cannot trade-up" and give-up picks- well I just did a trade-value chart PLUS trade that says you can while still maintaining most of your picks for 2014 and not severely damaging 2015. The real benefit to the Rams comes in 2015 with the 3rd rounder which is the bonus pick. However the move-up from #110 to #68 is valuable as well this year - that is a 42 pick move-up. Rams also get a 6th rounder this year an 3rd in 2015 - when they may be wanting to put a package together to move-up for a QB.

Obviously the key to the whole deal is how the Rams feel about the offensive tackles and Sammy Watkins. If Falcons want to trade-up, the Rams are the key team.

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Not willing to give up that much for Greg Robinson at #4.

LOL, what did you really give up?

  • swap a 3rd rounder for a 4th rounder
  • give up a 6th rounder
  • trade a 2015 3rd rounder

that is not much for the premier left tackle in this draft that dominates the line of scrimmage in the run game and has plenty of capability in pass protection. Could be a multiple pro-bowl type player.

small price to pay.

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If we're trading up, we might as well trade up one more spot to get Mack. Screw trading up for a OL, one will be there when the 6th spot comes for sure.

yeah, one will be there - but not the one that Dimitroff/Tice/Smith will want. Neither Matthews nor Lewan makes the statement that Greg Robinson makes in the running game. Robinson destroys people.

The "now" Robinson is better than Matthews/Lewan.

He also has the most room to develop. Matthews is ahead right now in pass protection - but that lead will likely evaporate after one year in NFL.

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lol'd when I saw the trade value Chart numbers used.

You have to use so others don't shout down your trades as unrealistic.

lol'd when I saw the trade value Chart numbers used.

You have to use so others don't shout down your trades as unrealistic.

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Possible, but I don't see it happening. Apparently the Rams top targets are Mack and Watkins and the furthest they can go with reasonable expectations that at least one will be there is #4. I also would be far from shocked that if the Lions trade up, be it for Clowney or Watkins, it will be with the Jags.

That's not what I have heard. Mike Florio said the Rams are in love with Robinson

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Read this as well. I definitely can't see it being just between Mack and Watkins.

Yeah I can't either. I don't even see Mack for the rams at all.

The Watkins maybe, but I'd be shocked if their pick wasn't Robinson or trade down

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Why not save the 3rd rounders and just take whichever OT is left at 6? No OT has gone by 6- so Lewan, Grob or Matthews has to be there, might be a few picks too high for Lewan, but seems better to me than trading away picks.

It is easy to say, "keep the extra picks" and take Matthews/Robinson. The only way I know to answer your question is to give example.

Lets say:

Greg Robinson = Larry Allen

Jake Matthews =.Todd Weiner

Taylor Lewan = Michael Roos

Now, all three of those offensive tackles did and have had good careers in the NFL. Clearly though Larry Allen is a hall-of-famer while the other two (Weiner/Roos) were and are competant starters.

Lets just say those were proper comparisons. If so, 32-of-32 NFL GMs would do that trade.

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No way i want to trade up for a tackle. If we Have to trade up it can only be for Mack or Clowney. The difference between Matthews and Robinson isn't large enough to trade up for either, considering one of them will almost assuredly be there at #6.

Edited by Lornoth
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