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The Official Clowney Prediction Thread: To Be Revisted In 2 Years, What Is Your Prediction?


gazoo
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I have been around these boards long enough to know how opinions get misrepresented in the future from "the other side" of the previous debate. To try and minimize the level of dishonesty that will unquestionably be peddled here in the future, lets get everyone's true position on Clowney today on one thread:

My prediction: 33% Clowney could end up being all the wonderful things his proponents say he can be. 34% chance he will be an underachiever who never lives up to all the hype. 33% chance he will be a bust.

This means a 67% chance of him being average or a bust, and 33% a boom. Not good odds with a top 5 pick in draft IMO.This is my official position.

I think other players like Mathews, Robinson and Mack have considerably higher odds of being booms, perhaps as high as 80% with 20% chance of bombing or being average.

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I stated my position exactly as it is and asked for your positions which so far you have been unwilling to provide.

My position is crystal clear, even broken down to percentages. Looks like some of your are afraid to be as precise as I was.

The draft is a lottery, I broke down the percentages I each potential outcome in the lottery. The fact this troubles anyone is mystifying to me.

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I have been around these boards long enough to know how opinions get misrepresented in the future from "the other side" of the previous debate. To try and minimize the level of dishonesty that will unquestionably be peddled here in the future, lets get everyone's true position on Clowney today on one thread:

My prediction: 33% Clowney could end up being all the wonderful things his proponents say he can be. 34% chance he will be an underachiever who never lives up to all the hype. 33% chance he will be a bust.

This means a 67% chance of him being average or a bust, and 33% a boom. Not good odds with a top 5 pick in draft IMO.This is my official position.

I think other players like Mathews, Robinson and Mack have considerably higher odds of being booms, perhaps as high as 80% with 20% chance of bombing or being average.

Sorry but the way you've set it up, you can be right either way, works for the physic hotline network, not as a prediction.
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I think he will be mediocre/a bust.

I think his work-ethic will lead to other issues, and he may produce his first season (6 sacks, tops, IMO). But he will decline.

I don't even see this guy as a boom or bust. I see a poor man's Julius Peppers or out of the league in 3 seasons.

I'm sure most will call this crazy talk, and it probably is. Not a fan.

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Gazoo... To be fair, you didn't predict anything at all. You said there's a 1/3 chance he's as good as advertised, 1/3 chance he's mediocre, and 1/3 chance he's a bust.

All you did was identify the probability space. You never said which of those outcomes you thought would happen.

But I'll play along anyway. I think he'll be mediocre.

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I have been around these boards long enough to know how opinions get misrepresented in the future from "the other side" of the previous debate. To try and minimize the level of dishonesty that will unquestionably be peddled here in the future, lets get everyone's true position on Clowney today on one thread:

My prediction: 33% Clowney could end up being all the wonderful things his proponents say he can be. 34% chance he will be an underachiever who never lives up to all the hype. 33% chance he will be a bust.

This means a 67% chance of him being average or a bust, and 33% a boom. Not good odds with a top 5 pick in draft IMO.This is my official position.

I think other players like Mathews, Robinson and Mack have considerably higher odds of being booms, perhaps as high as 80% with 20% chance of bombing or being average.

I'm taking the action on clowney. Your numbers look good to me. I'm in.

The other guys I'll let that ride. People aren't as entrenched on their opinions about them.

THIS THREAD SHOULD BE PINNED FOR REGULAR WEEKLY UPDATES WHEN THE SEASON STARTS

***FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES IF COURSE***

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