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Why The First 2 Overall Picks Far Well For Falcons For Clowney


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Turning his game around?

Look at his production those "last 5 games" of the regular season (since you know, they needed to win all those games in the last 5 to secure a spot), the run game carried them. His passer rating was 71.2, that puts him bottom 6 in the league. His year average was 73.9 fwiw, so he played even WORSE than his year average, so much for "raising his game". His playoff average was 95.7 (first two games were 117.1 and 132.4, his last two? 72 and 87.3) For as much as he carried them to victory against TB and dallas, he played average against GB and NE.

You are telling me, if you were houston, you'd want to spend the overall #1 pick for a "competent QB" compared to a potential stud pass rushing DE. I could find a competent QB say...3rd round (Wilson) while building a potent defense. AJ McCarron was a competent QB in college, you can get him with the 2nd pick.

How about this, what QB in the last 3 years have come in and played above average in the 1st round:

2011

Cam Newton (1st)

and here are the 1st round "competent" QBs

Jake Locker (8th)

Blaine Gabbert (9th)

Christian Ponder (12th)

and denver could have skipped Von Miller (orton/tebow) and SF could have skipped Aldon Smith (alex and troy smith) for any of those 3 competent QBs because their QBs already sucked. Competence is not hard to find, a **** good DE is.

2012

Andrew Luck

RG3

Ryan Tannehill

Weeden

2013

manuel

the catch? RG3, luck, and to an extent newton. All 3 had less ?? and all 3 went before good pass rushers.

This crop of QBs are flat competent which you can find at a later time and get the most athletic player to come out in a decade.

Name the last competent QB past the 1st round other than Kaepernick and Wilson...

Or as my previous post asked...

Name the last team to win a SB with bookends but no competence at QB...

See all this stat talk is fine and dandy but everybody knew that Eli played well down the stretch when you watched the games and into the playoffs. Stats are just that and NEVER tell the whole story. Making clutch throws will not show up on the stat sheet.

If you can successfully answer the two questions above and show higher results than I can show you, then I have no problem admitting I was wrong. Good luck tho!

Edited by ATLFalcons11
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You guys need to stop acting as if having too many dominant pass rushers is a bad thing.The quality of these QBs are nothing near the caliber of 'once in a lifetime' or 'cant miss prospects' like a couple years back. If this was a luck vs. RG3 vs. clowney debate, it'd be **** hard, but this is a bridgewater, bortles, and manziel pool. all 3 have major ?? and all 3 could end up being big busts like ponder, gabbert, locker (to an extent), Manuel, or smith.

Their best bet is to trade back to a desperate team or pick Clowney. Look at a team like arizona, very underrated stout defense, and an average offense with a decent QB. yet they still had double digit wins. Look at KC, great run game and game manager with a stout defense.

Why did you leave Clowney out? Clowney has major ?? as well. You must have just forgot to include him.

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Yall are hilarious with this "CANT MISS" DE talk. Clowney had 3 sacks last year. That was already a miss if you ask me. This guy has to be one of the most over hyped prospects in recent history. It's not like it's going to get easier for him once he hits the NFL.

I like Clowney and hope he is our pick. That being said he has some questions for sure. I am more worried he is the second coming of MV7 from a work ethic perspective than his talent level. I think you need to take his sack numbers with a grain of salt. He was a major part of any OCs game plan. You can't do that in the NFL. You scheme for one player and you will get beat because of the talent level at all positions. What is hilarious however is the fact that Houston needs a QB. They are taking a QB or trading out of the number 1 slot. You don't hold that spot often and having means you get to pick the QB of your choice. You don't get Franchise QBs in the second. I know we are going to get into the whole Wilson debate but the truth is when you have a mobile QB he doesn't have to be that good in the pocket. Brady is another good example. Maybe the Texans can find their franchise QB in the 6th right! It is a craps shoot at best. You have to make educated decisions and play the odds. Playing the odds with a top 5 QB is going to result in a good chance you got your guy. rolling the dice on a 3rd rounders is a huge gamble. That being said if they wanted Clowney they wouldn't be shopping that pick in such a deep draft.

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Name the last competent QB past the 1st round other than Kaepernick and Wilson...

Or as my previous post asked...

Name the last team to win a SB with bookends but no competence at QB...

See all this stat talk is fine and dandy but everybody knew that Eli played well down the stretch when you watched the games and into the playoffs. Stats are just that and NEVER tell the whole story. Making clutch throws will not show up on the stat sheet.

If you can successfully answer the two questions above and show higher results than I can show you, then I have no problem admitting I was wrong. Good luck tho!

Competent QBs past round 1 right?

last year stats:

Mike Glennon looked pretty **** good 60%, 19TD/9INT 83.9 passer rating (3rd)

Nick Foles 64%, 27TD/2INT 119.2 passer rating (3rd)

Andy Dalton 62%, 33TD/20INT 88.8 passer rating (2nd)

Chad Henne 61%, 13TD/14INT 76.5 passer rating (2nd)

here's the last few years with top 3 rounds:

last year's class: Manuel (1st), Smith (2nd), Glennon (3rd)

best one? Glennon

2012's class: Luck (1st), RG3 (1st), Tannehill (1st), Weeden (1st), Osweiler (2nd), Wilson (3rd), Foles (3rd)

outside of the highly touted luck and RG3, tannehill was the other one that highly rated. Wilson and foles are putting up good numbers too right? 3rd round.

2011's class: Newton (1st), Locker (1st), Gabbert (1st), Ponder (1st), Dalton (2nd), Kaepernick (2nd), Mallett (3rd)

Newton is the only 1st rounder worth squat. Titans aren't even sold on locker due to injuries. Ponder/Gabbert both suck. Dalton/Kaep were 2nd rounders

2010's class: Bradford (1st), Tebow (1st), Clausen (2nd), McCoy (3rd)

Bradford is the only one worth a crap

2009's class: Stafford (1st), Sanchez (1st), Freeman (1st), White (2nd)

Stafford is the only one worth a crap

Why don't you give me the last "competent" qb that won a superbowl without a top end defense or strong running game. Flacco?

Wilson - running game/top end defense

Flacco - balls out in playoffs

Manning - balls out 9TD/1INT

Rodgers - top 4 QB

Brees - top 4 QB, opportunistic defense

Rothelisberger - 692 yards, 61% 3TD, 1INT (total numbers in 3 games), 91.6 passer rating. Defense? 13.9ppg 237.2ypg and 51 sacks top in the league that year, #2 in sacks

Manning - defense and run game carried them, all because he hailed it up and got lucky doesn't mean he was the sole reason they won. They held the highest scoring team in NFL history (at the time) to 14 points.

P. Manning - top 4 QB, 1034 yards, 3TD, 7INT, 70.5 passer rating, defense that allowed 16.3ppg the playoffs and played against a rex grossman led team. unless you really want to coonsider rex grossman "competent"

Your point is that you need at least a competent QB, I agree. What do you see from the qbs in this draft all homerism aside. The competence between a 2nd tier Carr, Mett, McCarron, etc. is not much from Manziel, Bortles, and Bridgewater. This is purely looking at either passing on a potential rare athlete of a pass rusher or a 'competent' QB. In the past 3-4 years, there was always one or two competent QBs in the 2nd or 3rd round. In comparison, there were more busts in the 1st round at QB than success stories.

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Why did you leave Clowney out? Clowney has major ?? as well. You must have just forgot to include him.

Yes, he has questions, but there are reasons why people are high on him. he's proven he can produce in the college level AND he has a mad set of athleticism to him. He's one of the best pass rushers to come out in the past decade, I want him, but you're going to have to trade with houston to get him. I don't think he's going to be there with the 2nd pick. No one is falling in love with this crop of QBs, all of them are average.

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Competent QBs past round 1 right?

last year stats:

Mike Glennon looked pretty **** good 60%, 19TD/9INT 83.9 passer rating (3rd)

Nick Foles 64%, 27TD/2INT 119.2 passer rating (3rd)

Andy Dalton 62%, 33TD/20INT 88.8 passer rating (2nd)

Chad Henne 61%, 13TD/14INT 76.5 passer rating (2nd)

here's the last few years with top 3 rounds:

last year's class: Manuel (1st), Smith (2nd), Glennon (3rd)

best one? Glennon

2012's class: Luck (1st), RG3 (1st), Tannehill (1st), Weeden (1st), Osweiler (2nd), Wilson (3rd), Foles (3rd)

outside of the highly touted luck and RG3, tannehill was the other one that highly rated. Wilson and foles are putting up good numbers too right? 3rd round.

2011's class: Newton (1st), Locker (1st), Gabbert (1st), Ponder (1st), Dalton (2nd), Kaepernick (2nd), Mallett (3rd)

Newton is the only 1st rounder worth squat. Titans aren't even sold on locker due to injuries. Ponder/Gabbert both suck. Dalton/Kaep were 2nd rounders

2010's class: Bradford (1st), Tebow (1st), Clausen (2nd), McCoy (3rd)

Bradford is the only one worth a crap

2009's class: Stafford (1st), Sanchez (1st), Freeman (1st), White (2nd)

Stafford is the only one worth a crap

Why don't you give me the last "competent" qb that won a superbowl without a top end defense or strong running game. Flacco?

Wilson - running game/top end defense

Flacco - balls out in playoffs

Manning - balls out 9TD/1INT

Rodgers - top 4 QB

Brees - top 4 QB, opportunistic defense

Rothelisberger - 692 yards, 61% 3TD, 1INT (total numbers in 3 games), 91.6 passer rating. Defense? 13.9ppg 237.2ypg and 51 sacks top in the league that year, #2 in sacks

Manning - defense and run game carried them, all because he hailed it up and got lucky doesn't mean he was the sole reason they won. They held the highest scoring team in NFL history (at the time) to 14 points.

P. Manning - top 4 QB, 1034 yards, 3TD, 7INT, 70.5 passer rating, defense that allowed 16.3ppg the playoffs and played against a rex grossman led team. unless you really want to coonsider rex grossman "competent"

Your point is that you need at least a competent QB, I agree. What do you see from the qbs in this draft all homerism aside. The competence between a 2nd tier Carr, Mett, McCarron, etc. is not much from Manziel, Bortles, and Bridgewater. This is purely looking at either passing on a potential rare athlete of a pass rusher or a 'competent' QB. In the past 3-4 years, there was always one or two competent QBs in the 2nd or 3rd round. In comparison, there were more busts in the 1st round at QB than success stories.

Of course it depends on your definition of busts.

On one hand there are more "busts" in the 1st round because that's the only place bust is even a consideration for QB. Any other round isn't a bust. If Wilson, Dalton, or Kaep don't pan out, then they aren't considered busts because of where they were picked.

On the other hand you have way more QB failures in rounds 2 - 7 than you do in round 1. A good bit of that is sheer volume but the other part of that is that they just aren't good and that's why they weren't 1st round picks.

There are obviously examples of 1st rounders not panning out and 2nd - 7th rounders panning out but for the most part, competent SB winning QBs come from the 1st round.

How's this for a stat?

Quarterbacks

Winning Super Bowl quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round 55.3 percent of the time (29.8 percent with the first overall pick). 

The 1st round compared to 6 other rounds wins over half the time. Odds are that if you're gonna win the SB, then you need a 1st rounder at QB to do so.

Mind you this isn't a working theory for every team but Houston isn't far away from being a good team. Just 1 year removed from a #1 seed. They had a dominant defense without the bookends just 2 years ago. Just need some consistency at QB. They have a good OL, good WRs, and good RBs. They have a defense that can currently win them games. What don't have is a QB. Clowney is a luxury to them.

And this is coming from a guy who's fave QB is Joe Montana who wasn't drafted in the 1st round.

Edited by ATLFalcons11
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Of course it depends on your definition of busts.

On one hand there are more "busts" in the 1st round because that's the only place bust is even a consideration for QB. Any other round isn't a bust. If Wilson, Dalton, or Kaep don't pan out, then they aren't considered busts because of where they were picked.

On the other hand you have way more QB failures in rounds 2 - 7 than you do in round 1. A good bit of that is sheer volume but the other part of that is that they just aren't good and that's why they weren't 1st round picks.

There are obviously examples of 1st rounders not panning out and 2nd - 7th rounders panning out but for the most part, competent SB winning QBs come from the 1st round.

How's this for a stat?

Quarterbacks

Winning Super Bowl quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round 55.3 percent of the time (29.8 percent with the first overall pick).

The 1st round compared to 6 other rounds wins over half the time. Odds are that if you're gonna win the SB, then you need a 1st rounder at QB to do so.

Mind you this isn't a working theory for every team but Houston isn't far away from being a good team. Just 1 year removed from a #1 seed. They had a dominant defense without the bookends just 2 years ago. Just need some consistency at QB. They have a good OL, good WRs, and good RBs. They have a defense that can currently win them games. What don't have is a QB. Clowney is a luxury to them.

And this is coming from a guy who's fave QB is Joe Montana who wasn't drafted in the 1st round.

I understand that they're not a bad team, similar to us how we're not a bad team either. The thing is, you can find a consistent game manager that doesn't throw pick 6s at the most inopportune time in the 2nd or 3rd round (considering they have the 33rd overall pick). They can have the luxury of trading back, picking up a freak athlete to potentially make the defense even better, or picking a QB with a ton of questions around their name. 1st round QBs win the SB most of the time, but that doesn't mean every 1st rounder is going to pan out to be a SB champ.

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Your point is that you need at least a competent QB, I agree. What do you see from the qbs in this draft all homerism aside. The competence between a 2nd tier Carr, Mett, McCarron, etc. is not much from Manziel, Bortles, and Bridgewater. This is purely looking at either passing on a potential rare athlete of a pass rusher or a 'competent' QB. In the past 3-4 years, there was always one or two competent QBs in the 2nd or 3rd round. In comparison, there were more busts in the 1st round at QB than success stories.

Compotent QB?

Johnny Football is a Heisman winner. That's more than "compotent"

Bridgewater was MVP of the Russell Athletic Bowl and had a whopping 70% comp and insane TD-Int ratio. Again, more than "compotent"

Bortles had a 4 TD performance in his bowl game and an outstanding Combine. Possibly, compotent.

In any case, I don't agree with the "There is no separation between the top 3 and the field" argument. Just isn't true to me. The above 3 actually WON their bowl games and performed well in the season with ALL 3 having 65% completion or better. They are clearly better than they field. Maybe Garrapollo can be in their class but not any of the other folks.

Edited by MD-FalconFan13
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I understand that they're not a bad team, similar to us how we're not a bad team either. The thing is, you can find a consistent game manager that doesn't throw pick 6s at the most inopportune time in the 2nd or 3rd round (considering they have the 33rd overall pick). They can have the luxury of trading back, picking up a freak athlete to potentially make the defense even better, or picking a QB with a ton of questions around their name. 1st round QBs win the SB most of the time, but that doesn't mean every 1st rounder is going to pan out to be a SB champ.

Of course not every 1st rounder will pan out as SB champ and my argument never even implied that.

What I did say is that the odds are greatly on your side that a 1st rounder will be the QB that wins the SB.

Of we were to break each round out evenly after the 1st it would look like this:

Percentage of QBs to win the SB based on drafted round:

1st round: 56%

2nd round: 7.33%

3rd round: 7.33%

4th round: 7.33%

5th round: 7.33%

6th round: 7.33%

7th round: 7.33%

Once again that's only if we break it up evenly. The odds are probably worst the further we get into the draft but I don't have those exact numbers. But it's a major drop down regardless. I would imagine it's around 20 something percent for the 2nd round.

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