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I Predicted The Falcons 2014 Compensatory Draft Picks In January


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On January 5, 2014 I predicted that Atlanta would receive 3 compensation picks: a 4th for Grimes and 2 seven-round picks. I started a topic thread to that affect in TATF and in the NFL Draft message boards. Atlanta actually received 3 comp picks for the 2014 draft: a 4th rounder and two second rounders as announced today. I was shocked when this particular topic thread was moved off the TATF message board back on Jan 5 and transferred to the NFL Draft and Free Agent message board. The topic post and its linked topic thread as follows :

Posted 05 January 2014 - 11:07 AM

Abe, Dunta, Turner, and Clabo were all cut by the Falcons in 2013 before their contract terms ended. Therefore none of these players will count as UFAs lost and will not enter into the compensable formula in 2014. Atlanta lost 6 UFAs in 2013: Grimes ($5.5m new one-year contract= 4th round), Walker ($2m new contract= 6th or 7th), Owens ($1m new contact= 7th) , Svitec ($1m new contract =7th), McCown ($905,000 new contract= 7th), and Sidbury ($780,000 new contract). However, Sidbury will NOT count in the compensatory formula as a qualified free agent lost, because his annual salary is below the minimum cut-off point. The cutoff is somewhere between $800,000 to $900,000.

Atlanta lost 5 compensable FAs in 2013: Grimes, Owens, Walker, Svitek, and McCown. Atlanta signed 2 compensable UFAs in 2013: S-Jax (average annual comp = $4m = 5th round) and Osi (average annual comp =$4,250,000 = 5th round). Therefore, Atlanta has a NET LOSS of 3 UFAs = 3 comp picks. Since Jackson and Osi are higher rounds comps than Grimes, they can not cancel out Grimes. Therefore, Osi will cancel out Walker, and S-Jax will cancel out Owens.

That would leave Atlanta 3 comp picks in the 2014 draft: a 4th rounder for Grimes, and two 7th rounders for Svitek and McCown, according to my projection.

Some have questioned as to whether Osi and S-Jax wil count or not. I'm almost certain that both of these players will count in the comp formula because neither one was technically "cut or released". Both became UFAs due to the final year in their contracts being "voided". Osi's contract was voided due to a "technicality" in his contract. Jackson's contract gave him the option to void his final year. I believe that if a player becomes an unrestricted free agent, without being released or cut while under contract, then they will figure into the compensatory draft formula. Therefore, both Osi and S-Jax should count as qualified UFAs signed by Atlanta, in my opinion. I base this upon the following excerpt from Adamjt, the renown compensatory draft guru:

"In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which ended July 27 last year); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; his compensatory value or contract value must be above a specific minimum amount; and he cannot have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time, unless he was claimed off waivers by another team."

http://adamjt13.blog...-nfl-draft.html

"Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora's contract was voided at 4:01 p.m. ET on Thursday due to a technicality in his contract. He is now an unrestricted free agent, according to Jenny Vrentas, the Giants' beat writer for The Star-Ledger."

St. Louis Rams running back Steven Jackson will void the final year of his contract and become a free agent next month, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported Monday night, citing unnamed NFL sources.......This will be Jackson's first experience as a free agent. According to Thomas, Jackson wants to play for a Super Bowl contender.

http://boards.atlant...ry-draft-picks/

Note the 10th post in the linked thread as follows:

"Posted 05 January 2014 - 02:22 PM

I posted this topic thread on both this draft board and Talk About the Falcons message board. I see that the one posted on TATF board got moved over here, so that's why there are now two separate threads on this issue on this message board. "

Would someone please tell me why this topic thread was deemed not appropriate for the TATF message board????? As you can see, I'm still peeved about the moved topic thread.

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That's cool Prof and you probably deserve at least half a cookie but that aint nowhere near what the guy did in 2009. Can't remember his nic but he predicted we would go 9-7. Not only that he predicted every game correctly. I bet you can't match that.

Yeah I remember that. That was something.

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Because it's more relevant to NFL draft and Free Agency.

I saw many threads on TATF dealing exclusively with the draft beginning in November 2013, when it became apparent that the 2013 Falcons season was up in smoke. I've seen hundreds and hundreds of topic threads dealing with the draft and free agency since that point last year on TATF. I'm still searching for an answer as to why my particular thread, which wound up having some worthwhile information btw, was moved to another board when hundreds of others were not. I posted this thread, not to pat myself on the back, but to try to obtain an answer from hopefully the powers that be on this particular message board.

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That's cool Prof and you probably deserve at least half a cookie but that aint nowhere near what the guy did in 2009. Can't remember his nic but he predicted we would go 9-7. Not only that he predicted every game correctly. I bet you can't match that.

No I can't. My predictive powers are not nearly that good.

Technically you weren't 100% right though. You predicted a 7 for McCown which we did not receive.

That's true, but it was specially noted that McCown would have counted as a compensatory loss by the Falcons had the compensatory picks had not already gotten to the maximum of 32 picks. Where I missed it in my projection, was saying that S-JAX would count as a compensable gain, but he didn't. Jackson became only the second player in the history of compensatory drafts to NOT count due to a voided contract (the other player being Laveranues Coles in the 2010 compensatory draft). Osi had a voided contract and he did count as a compensable gain.

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No I can't. My predictive powers are not nearly that good.

That's true, but it was specially noted that McCown would have counted as a compensatory loss by the Falcons had the compensatory picks had not already gotten to the maximum of 32 picks.

but if that would have happened we would have had 4 comp picks
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